February Realtor Report
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February Realtor Report

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February Realtor Report Document Transcript

  • 1. Spring Ahead? The Southwest California housing market is hoping for a little spring in the market over the next few months. Sales have been declining steadily and prices slid again last month after rising slightly in January. Since peaking in September at $445,514, Temecula has dropped 9% to $406,918 this month. Murrieta topped out at $399,908 in November dropping 13% to $347,206 last month. Region-wide our median fell 4% while the rest of the state was off 6%. But we’re still 15% ahead of last February, so that’s good. Single family resales are down 7% from a year ago but if you look at the sales chart on page 5 you’ll see we experienced a 4 month rally starting in March in each of the past two years. Pending sales don’t indicate that kind of increase starting soon but the traditional spring buying season is upon us so we’ll see how sustainable this recovery has been. The drop-off in investor purchases and first time buyers is evident in the market but the biggest problem continues to be buyer qualifications. In an already tough regulatory environment, lenders are also grappling with the implementation of the QM (Qualified Mortgage) and QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) rules and making sure they comply with new edicts from the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). (You’re probably already aware that the recently formed CFPB essentially answers to no one and is financed by the fines they levy. Yeah, that’ll work.) You’re probably also aware that California Legislators believe we need over 2,000 new bills to help us cope with life in this harsh environment. Many of those will impact housing and private property rights in some way while several more seek to modify Prop 13 homeowner protections. The California Association of Realtors is sponsoring a few bills ourselves including AB 513 (Fox), a bill which makes it easier for homeowners and law enforcement to remove ‘unauthorized residents’ (i.e. Squatters) from a property. While the bulk of distressed properties are behind us (we hope), this is still a problem often leading to rental fraud and other criminal activity. No statute currently exists to assist property owners. And speaking of distressed properties, the share for the region remains fairly constant at about 15% of our market but in Temecula last month just 6% of sales were distressed.
  • 2. Realtors® Oppose Tax Plan to Limit Mortgage Interest Deduction, Real Estate Provisions WASHINGTON (February 26, 2014) – The following is a statement by National Association of Realtors® President Steve Brown: “NAR supports reforms that promote economic growth, but we strongly oppose severely altering the rules that govern ownership and investment in real estate. Real estate powers almost one-fifth of the U.S. economy, employs more than 17 million Americans, and contributes a quarter of all federal and state tax revenue and as much as 70 percent of local taxes. “We are extremely disappointed with several of the provisions contained in U.S. House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp’s tax reform draft released today, namely proposed limits on the mortgage interest deduction and capital gains, and the repeal of deductions for state and local property taxes. These proposed changes to the taxation of real estate will impact every single American, either directly or indirectly. “NAR will carefully analyze the details of the Chairman’s plan so we can best educate Congress and the public about how this plan would impact the owners, consumers, and producers of both residential and commercial real estate.” The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
  • 3. SW Market @ A Glance Southwest California Reporting Period Current Period Last Period Year Ago Change from Last Period Change from Year Ago Existing Home Sales (SFR Detached) February 2014 469 454 505 3% 7% Median Home Price $323,522 $335,052 $275,305 4% 15% Unsold Inventory Index (SFR Units) 1,507 1,448 617 4% 59% Unsold Inventory Index (Months) 3.5 3.7 1.4 5% 60% Median Time on Market (Days) 68 62 57 9% 16% Source: CRMLS
  • 4. February Market Activity By Sales Type Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale Active % of MKT Sold % of MKT Active % of MKTSold % of MKT Active % of MKT Sold % of MKT Temecula 367 92%108 93% 15 4% 2 2% 14 4% 5 4% Murrieta 340 90%105 82% 14 4% 8 6% 23 6% 13 10% Wildomar 61 88% 29 85% 4 6% 2 6% 4 6% 3 9% Lake Elsinore 190 84% 46 79% 7 3% 4 7% 27 12% 6 10% Menifee 299 87% 90 78% 15 4% 10 9% 23 7% 11 9% Canyon Lake 91 97% 13 76% 0 0% 1 6% 3 3% 1 6% Hemet 340 84% 81 81% 30 7% 10 10% 33 8% 5 5% San Jacinto 127 83% 23 70% 7 5% 4 12% 16 10% 6 18% Regional Average 181588%495 82% 92 4% 41 7% 143 7% 50 8% 27% 45% 35%
  • 5. 0 50 100 150 200 250 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13 6/13 9/13 12/13 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13 6/13 9/13 12/13 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes Median Price February Transaction Value: Temecula $57,546,654 Lake Elsinore $15,187,609 Murrieta $44,442,312 Wildomar $9,587,481 Menifee $28,331,544 Canyon Lake $6,703,700
  • 6. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 13-1 13-2 13-3 13-4 13-5 13-6 13-7 13-8 13-9 13-10 13-11 13-12 14-1 14-2 Hemet/San Jacinto 2013 Unit Sales Single Family Residential Hemet San Jacinto $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 13-1 13-2 13-3 13-4 13-5 13-6 13-7 13-8 13-9 13-10 13-11 13-12 14-1 14-2 Hemet/San Jacinto 2013 Single Family Residential Median Price Hemet San Jacinto February Transaction Value: (Gross revenue from SFR Residential transactions in the city) Hemet $15,557,700 San Jacinto $5,997,250
  • 7. $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 3/13 6/13 9/13 12/13 Southwest California Murrieta Temecula February Median Price: 2013 2014 % Temecula $358,763 $406,917 12% Murrieta $325,815 $347,206 6% Menifee $200,637 $244,237 18% Lake Elsinore $216,880 $266,449 19% Wildomar $245,726 $281,985 13% Canyon Lake $306,625 $394,335 22% Southwest California $275,306 $323,522 15% Hemet $150,606 $155,571 3% San Jacinto $155,584 $181,735 14% Southwest California Median Price
  • 8. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 1 9 9 7 2 2 4 0 1 4 1 9 1 1 8 8 9 7 4 8 6 2 8 4 1 7 9 5 7 7 8 7 2 5 7 8 2 5 8 1 6 7 9 6 1 7 6 0 2 6 3 9 6 7 7 8 6 3 1 0 9 8 1 2 2 7 1 3 6 1 1 5 0 2 1 4 0 9 1 3 4 5 1 4 4 8 1 5 0 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 On Market (Supply) Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate * 3 7 9 1 5 9 1 2 8 5 7 3 . 0 . 8 4 3 9 8 1 5 8 1 1 6 5 8 3 . 4 . 6 7 4 0 7 2 0 6 1 0 0 5 6 4 . 1 . 5 3 3 4 2 1 5 7 1 1 6 6 0 2 . 9 . 7 7 2 2 5 1 1 5 5 8 7 6 3 . 9 . 7 3 1 5 3 7 5 3 3 8 4 4 . 6 . 5 3 9 4 1 7 1 7 1 0 4 5 . 5 . 7 9 6 9 3 5 3 4 5 4 2 . 0 1 . 0 Murrieta Temecula Hemet Menifee Lake Elsininore San Jacinto Canyon Lake Wildomar * Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month February Demand Chart Inventory up 4% month-over-month 3% month over m-o-m sales increase Pending sales moderate Days on Market up 9% Months supply up to 3.5 months (avg). Still shy of the 6 – 7 months considered a ‘balanced’ market A year ago we were selling 2-3 homes for every new listing. (absorption) 2012 2013 Southwest California Inventory