• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
March Realtor Update
 
  • 152 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
152
Views on SlideShare
152
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
1
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    March Realtor Update March Realtor Update Presentation Transcript

    • With your host…Gene Wunderlich
    • “Just because you don’t take an interest in politicsdoesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.” Pericles: 500 B.C. If you don’t have a seat at the table… You’ll probably be on the menu. Wunderlich Codicil: 2000 A.D.You may still be on the menu, but hopefully we can keep you from beingthe main course 2012 addendum
    • • Lenders • Short Sales • Foreclosures• Federal Economic Policy • Interest Rates• Regulations • Inflation• Mortgage Interest Deduction • Shadow Inventory• Strategic Foreclosures • Global Economy• Future of GSE’s • Unemployment Unprecedented era of government involvement in housing
    • YOU…Are a Special Interest Group.
    • NAR: The largestgrassroots Political ActionGroup in this country. "These groups are powers in Washington. The National Association of Realtors gave more money than any other group to candidates in the last election ($11+ million). Its 1.1 million members can do a lot of lobbying."CAR: The most effectivebusiness advocacy group inSacramento.
    • Red State? Blue State?Under all is the land… Realtor® Preamble
    • The Realtor® Home Washington D.C.
    • May 201212,000+ Realtors® Rally for the American Dream
    • 250 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes200 Unit Sales150100 50 0 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake Temecula 145/120 Lake Elsinore 92/72 Murrieta 174/129 Wildomar 46/30 Menifee 125/120 Canyon Lake 26/20 February transaction volume: Temecula $42,713,976 Lake Elsinore $15,516,176 Murrieta $41,612,059 Wildomar $7,389,053 Menifee $23,619,849 Canyon Lake $6,132,500
    • $400,000$350,000$300,000$250,000$200,000$150,000$100,000 Southwest California Homes Single Family Homes $50,000 Median Price $0 3/11 6/11 9/11 12/11 3/12 6/12 9/12 12/12 Temecula Murrieta Lake Elsinore Menifee Wildomar Canyon Lake January’s median price was up 19% over last January ($217,924/$262,930) February’s was up 14% over last year ($237,842/$274,353) highest median price we’ve seen for the region since August 2008 when our median price dropped through $280,662 on its way to our low of $210,317 in April, 2009. We’re up 23% from there. Temecula up 21% $(279,009/$355,950) 3/08 Lake Elsinore up 17% ($179,136/$215,502) Murrieta up 19% ($261,199/$322,574) 4/08 Wildomar up 17% ($205,941/$246,302), Menifee up 14% ($171,6245/$199,165) Canyon Lake down 7% ($330,140/$306,625) So you don’t lose perspective, even with the recovery of 26%, at $355,950 Temecula is still 38% under its peak of $575,935 (6/06) and at $322,574 Murrieta is still 44% below its peak of $576,224 (5/06).
    • Southwest California Inventory 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22500 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 4 1 2 1 2 1 1 4 1 0 9 7 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 7 4 8 9 9 1 9 9 7 4 1 4 1 0 0 9 0 2 1 9 1 1 6 2 7 7 8 7 5 9 9 8 7 7 3 7 8 8 72000 1 9 1 6 4 2 1 1 1 5 4 2 7 4 1 4 4 4 6 4 -72% 6 4 6 2 1 1 2 6 91500 9 1 8 8 9 7 8 8 7 7 7 4 6 4 71000 9 7 8 6 2 1 2 6 5 8 2 5 7 5 8 1 9 1 7 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2010 2011 2012
    • 400 Southwest California350 February Demand Chart 3 . 2 8300 2 6 2 5 7 2 . 2 4 2 2 . 4250 9 1 . 3 1 9 0 1 8 4200 1 . 6 5 8 1 1 1 4 1 2150 2 2 0 9 0 0 8 8 . 8 7 7100 6 8 5 2 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 4 5 8 4 5 4 3 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 3 0 50 1 0 6 0 . . . . . . 2 6 2 9 3 5 0 Murrieta Temecula Lake Elsininore Menifee Canyon Lake Wildomar On Market (Supply) Pending Closed (Demand) Days on Market Months Supply Absorption rate * * Absorption rate - # of new listings for the month/# of sold listings for the month February 2012 February 2013 • 2,240 homes for sale • 617 homes for sale • 561 homes sold • 491 homes sold • 3.3 months supply • 1.4 months supply • 87 days on market • 57 days on market • 110% absorption rate • 201% absorption rate
    • February Market Activity By Sales Type Standard Sale Bank Owned Short Sale % of % of % of % of % of % of Active MKT Sold MKT Active MKT Sold MKT Active MKT Sold MKTTemecula 163 88% 80 67% 8 4% 10 8% 13 7% 28 23%Murrieta 133 86% 79 61% 9 6% 13 10% 10 6% 31 24%Wildomar 13 81% 14 47% 1 6% 3 10% 2 13% 12 40%LakeElsinore 63 72% 40 56% 8 9% 9 13% 17 19% 22 31%Menifee 76 70% 69 58% 16 15% 17 14% 14 13% 27 23%CanyonLake 58 89% 16 80% 2 3% 2 10% 5 8% 2 10%RegionalAverage 506 81% 298 61% 44 8% 54 11% 61 11% 122 25%
    • $600,000 California$500,000 US$400,000 CA Price Trend CA Prices$300,000 Still Below$200,000 Trend Line =$100,000 Opportunity $0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 38,000 13,500 Pent-Up In thousands 36,000 575 13,000 Demand 34,000 377 12,500 for Total Population, California Housing is 32,000 Number of Households, California (right 12,000 Real 30,000 axis) 11,500 2000-2001 2003-2004 2006-2007 2009-2010
    • California Housing Market OutlookIndicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013fSFH Resales(000s) 441.81 546.86 492.29 497.86 523.25 530% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%Median Price($000s) $ 348.5 $ 275.0 $ 305.0 $ 286.0 $ 317.0 $ 335.0% Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7%30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0%1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
    • Signs of U.S. Housing Recovery Prices have bottomed! Home equity up 20% last year to $7.71Trillion as rising prices begin to reverse negative equity New and Existing Home Sales at four- year highs Low inventory across the board Housing starts at four-year high Threat of shadow inventory fading as delinquencies, foreclosures decline Foreclosure starts at 6 year low
    • The Political Economy• Fiscal Cliff Averted but Tax and Spend Decisions Await – 60 Day Deadline• Tax Reform: •Mortgage Interest Deductibility •Mortgage Debt Forgiveness• Future of Fannie and Freddie• Future of FHA
    • CAR 2013 – 2014 Legislative AgendaSB 176 (Galgiani) Regulatory Notifications - C.A.R. is sponsoring SB 176 to promote transparency in the regulatorynotice process. Current law requires regulatory bodies to post meeting notices and public reports on their websites. Thisbill will additionally require state agencies, boards and commissions to re-publish these meeting notices in a singlelocation. Specifically, this bill requires state agencies, boards and commissions to post information related toinformational hearings, workshops, scoping hearings, preliminary meetings, public and stakeholder outreach meetings,15-day comment period notices and website links to public reports at least 15 days prior to any scheduled meeting in theCalifornia Regulatory Notice Register. AB 429 (Daly) Retention of DRE Staff - In 2012 Governor Jerry Browns government reorganization plan was approved, which, among other things, moved the Department of Real Estate (DRE) to Consumer Services Agency, effective July 1, 2013, under the Department of Consumer Affairs (DCA). C.A.R. initially opposed this measure out of concern that DRE would: 1) lose its regulatory, enforcement and legal staff; 2) forfeit its operating reserves to the General Fund; and 3) lose some measure of its influence in government. C.A.R. moved to a support position after receiving assurances from the administration, confirming that the DRE will: retain its regulatory, enforcement and legal staff; maintain its fiscal independence and; its influence with the retention of a "Commissioner" as opposed to a Bureau Chief. C.A.R. is sponsoring AB 429 to make it clear in the law that DRE is to retain its regulatory, enforcement and legal staff. SB 30 (R. Calderon) and AB 42 (Perea) Debt Forgiveness Income Tax - The federal government enacted the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 creating mortgage debt forgiveness relieving borrowers from income tax liability on debt forgiven in a “short” sale. In late 2008 the federal government extended this relief through December 31, 2012. This rule, which has been extended several times in both federal and conforming California laws, expired on January 1, 2013. On December 31, 2012, Congress passed budget solutions in an attempt to avoid the "fiscal cliff." Included in that measure was an extension of the mortgage debt forgiveness sunset date to January 1, 2014. C.A.R. is sponsoring SB 30 and AB 42 to make conforming changes in California law effective January 1, 2013.
    • Join me in Sacramento for Legislative Day Wednesday, May 1st Enjoy Reserved seating at: • Breakfast with the City Managers • SRCAR Annual Meeting • Luncheon & Reception with our leaders • More good stuffInvest $148 in YOUR Realtor Party today.