The demographics
of charitable estate
planning
Russell
James
Professor
Texas Tech
University
It’s kind
of a
BIG
DEAL
Why this new data is
so important
The entire “lifetime” movie
(tracking same people from mid-life to post-mortem)
New data
Previous data
Old
data
Small one-...
The entire “lifetime” movie
• Matches sequence of lifetime responses with post-
mortem distributions for over 10,000 deced...
Warning!
This
might
not be
pretty
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
1998
(n=18,987)
2000
(n=18,142)
2002
(n=17,353)
2004
(n=17,464)
2006
(n=17,033)
2008
(n=16,464)
20...
States allowing “Transfer on Death”
deeds in 1995
States allowing “Transfer on Death”
deeds in 2000
States allowing “Transfer on Death”
deeds in 2005
States allowing “Transfer on Death”
deeds today
(+2013 legislative action in 6 more states)
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
1998
(n=18,987)
2000
(n=18,142)
2002
(n=17,353)
2004
(n=17,464)
2006
(n=17,033)...
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
1998
(n=18,987)
2000
(n=18,142)
2002
(n=17,353)
2004
(n=17,464)
2006
(n=17,033)
2008...
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1998
(n=18,987)
2000
(n=18,142)
2002
(n=17,353)
2004
(n=17,464)
2006
(n=17,033)
2008
(n=16,464)
20...
Where’s the boom?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
$BillionsAnnually
Est. Hig...
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
$BillionsAnnually
Est. Hig...
Charitable bequests since 2000
have trended flat…
What’s
going on?
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
MedianAgeatDeath
Linear (Male Bequest Donor)
Linear (Female Bequest
Donor)
Linear (All Female)
Linear...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Cumulative percentage of c...
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000 1913(Age101)
1917(Age97)
1921(Age93)
1925(Age89)
1929(Age85)
1933(Age81)
1...
Key population not growing, YET
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-7...
Coming demographic wave will
impact CRT creation first, then CGA
creation, then bequests realization
Realized
Bequest Peak...
The future
is bright…
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ charitable es...
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21% 1976(77-82)
1977(76-81)
1979(74-79)
1980(73-78)
1981(72-77)
1982(71-76)
1983(70-75)
1984(69-74)...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of
charitable r...
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
U.S. population shar...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ charitable
recipi...
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
U.S. aged 55+ giving ($500+) and
volunteering
volunteer
charitable giving
Wills
that
won’t
What ultimately
happened to
those written
and witnessed
will documents
reported during
life?
Reported wills are often unused
16%
38%
10%
19%
11%
6%
Distributed estates where decedent reported having a
written and wi...
Funded trusts more likely to work
75%
5%
10%
4% 2%
4%
Distributed estates where decedent reported having a
funded trust (n...
Documents
• The will is only a back-up
document
• Ask about titling and
beneficiary designations
(especially qualified
pla...
Who are
these
people?
Lifetime predictors of a
post-mortem bequest gift
1. % years giving
2. No offspring
3. Highest giving
4. % years
reporting
funded trust
5. Female
6. Last reported
wealth
7....
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
8-10 years
premortem
6-8 years
pre-mortem
4-6 years
pre-mortem
2-4 years
pre-mortem
0-2 years
pre-...
When do plans change?
Factors predicting when
charitable plans are
ADDED
1. Approaching
death (final pre-
death survey)
2. Becoming a
widow/widower
3. Diagnosed with
cancer
4. Decline in self-
re...
Factors predicting when
charitable plans are
DROPPED
1. Decline in self-
reported health
2. Approaching
death (final pre-
death survey)
3. Becoming a
widow/widower
4. Divorce
...
1. Death feels near
• Final pre-death survey
• Decline in self-reported health
• Diagnosis with cancer
• Diagnosis with he...
Most realized charitable plans (shown
in red) added within 5 years of death
Total Number Total $
Although most charitable plans were
added within 5 years of death, ONE longer-
term plan was worth FOUR made in the
last t...
A 5% national sample of 2012 probate records
in Australia showed an estimated
• 31% of charitable wills were signed
within...
Plans destabilize as death approaches
lifetime reports
made as death
approaches
post-mortem
transfers v. lifetime
reports
...
Most still report charitable plans 10
years later
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 200...
So where does
“Once in, Always in” come from?
Old
data
Post-mortem for
largest estates
Plans destabilize as death nears
We can see this only in
a LIFETIMEsurvey
not in ...
The NCPG (2000) study showed
that 90% of planned bequest
donors don't change their plans
Fiction
Among those (avg. age of
...
Practice suggestions
What now?
“Count it and forget it”
doesn’t work!
A bequest
commitment is the
beginning, not the
end
Higher value
in converting
to irrevocable
commitments:
gift annuities,
...
Charitable
plans signed
earlier
DO
produce larger
gifts,
IF
they stay in (or
they return
later)
Don’t
ignore
your
oldest
supporters
Half of all charitable bequest dollars came
from decedents this age and older…
Current U.S. study:
Age 88
New Australian s...
Age at Will Signing
(by share of total charitable bequest $ transferred)
76%
11%
13% 80s+
70s
pre-70
Australian data from:...
For those 75+ with
lifetime connections,
stay “top of the mind”
(service, service
communication, mission
communication,
ho...
Many of our customers
like to leave money to
charity in their will. Are
there any causes you’re
passionate about?
Would yo...
• Plans change every time a donor opens a
new account with a TOD/POD or changes a
joint account owner
• Plans become unsta...
A realistic boom is
starting soon (5 years)
But,
trusts do
Wealthy, consistent
donors with a trust
(especially childless
a...
My
favorite
student
evaluation
from a
personal
finance
class…
This class
sucked. It was
all about reality.
I didn’t want t...
Russell James, J.D., Ph.D., CFP®
Professor
Texas Tech University
www.EncourageGenerosity.com
www.EncourageGenerosity.com/A...
Drilling
down…
Race and ethnicity in charitable
planning
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of
charitable recipient...
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ use of will or
trust by race...
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of
charitable estat...
Trends in use of
funded trusts
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ use of
funded trust by race/e...
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ use of
funded trust by ho...
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ use of
funded trust by wea...
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ use of
funded tru...
Extra details
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p
U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of...
What are the best multi-item models to predict the
amount of money left to charities at death?
Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
...
What is the combined effect (considering both
adding and dropping) of various lifetime changes on
the presence of a charit...
The demographics of charitable estate planning
The demographics of charitable estate planning
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The demographics of charitable estate planning

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A review of statistical and demographic trends in the U.S. and Australia related to charitable bequest planning and planned giving

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The demographics of charitable estate planning

  1. 1. The demographics of charitable estate planning Russell James Professor Texas Tech University
  2. 2. It’s kind of a BIG DEAL Why this new data is so important
  3. 3. The entire “lifetime” movie (tracking same people from mid-life to post-mortem) New data Previous data Old data Small one-time snapshots in life Post-mortem for largest estates
  4. 4. The entire “lifetime” movie • Matches sequence of lifetime responses with post- mortem distributions for over 10,000 decedents • Identifies timing of plan changes • Large, federally-funded, longitudinal, in-person, well-compensated, nationally representative, study on health and retirement issues
  5. 5. Warning! This might not be pretty
  6. 6. 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 1998 (n=18,987) 2000 (n=18,142) 2002 (n=17,353) 2004 (n=17,464) 2006 (n=17,033) 2008 (n=16,464) 2010 (n=18,370) 2012 (projected) U.S. population aged 55+ with a will or trust
  7. 7. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 1995
  8. 8. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 2000
  9. 9. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds in 2005
  10. 10. States allowing “Transfer on Death” deeds today (+2013 legislative action in 6 more states)
  11. 11. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1998 (n=18,987) 2000 (n=18,142) 2002 (n=17,353) 2004 (n=17,464) 2006 (n=17,033) 2008 (n=16,464) 2010 (n=18,370) 2012 (projected) U.S. population aged 55+ with will only or trust Will Only Funded Trust
  12. 12. 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 1998 (n=18,987) 2000 (n=18,142) 2002 (n=17,353) 2004 (n=17,464) 2006 (n=17,033) 2008 (n=16,464) 2010 (n=18,370) 2012 (projected) Charitable estate beneficiary among U.S. population aged 55+ with a will or trust
  13. 13. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1998 (n=18,987) 2000 (n=18,142) 2002 (n=17,353) 2004 (n=17,464) 2006 (n=17,033) 2008 (n=16,464) 2010 (n=18,370) 2012 (projected) U.S. population aged 55+ with a charitable estate beneficiary in will or trust
  14. 14. Where’s the boom?
  15. 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $BillionsAnnually Est. High ('98-'17) Est. Middle ('98-'17) Est. Low ('98-'17) Charitable bequests received Charitable bequests: Predicted v. Received Estimated annually is 1/20 of 20 year estimated total from P.G. Schervish and J. J. Havens (1999) “Millionaires and the millenium: New estimates of the forthcoming wealth transfer and the prospects for a golden age of philanthropy”. Bequests received are inflation-adjusted numbers from Giving USA 2013
  16. 16. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $BillionsAnnually Est. High ('98-'17) Est. Middle ('98-'17) Est. Low ('98-'17) Charitable bequests received Estimated annually is 1/20 of 20 year estimated total from P.G. Schervish and J. J. Havens (1999) “Millionaires and the millenium: New estimates of the forthcoming wealth transfer and the prospects for a golden age of philanthropy”. Bequests received are inflation-adjusted numbers from Giving USA 2013 Charitable bequests: Predicted v. Received
  17. 17. Charitable bequests since 2000 have trended flat… What’s going on?
  18. 18. 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 MedianAgeatDeath Linear (Male Bequest Donor) Linear (Female Bequest Donor) Linear (All Female) Linear (All Male) Wealthy people die old. Wealthy bequest donors die even older.
  19. 19. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+ Cumulative percentage of charitable bequest dollars by donor age at death Over 80% of charitable bequest dollars come from decedents aged 80+
  20. 20. 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 1913(Age101) 1917(Age97) 1921(Age93) 1925(Age89) 1929(Age85) 1933(Age81) 1937(Age77) 1941(Age73) 1945(Age69) 1949(Age65) 1953(Age61) 1957(Age57) 1961(Age53) 1965(Age49) 1969(Age45) 1973(Age41) 1977(Age37) 1981(Age33) The “baby bust” is driving demographics Births
  21. 21. Key population not growing, YET 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total resident population by 5-year age groups Temporary flat trend in key population
  22. 22. Coming demographic wave will impact CRT creation first, then CGA creation, then bequests realization Realized Bequest Peak Age: 88 Franey, J. W. & James, R. N., III (2013) Trending Forward: Emerging Demographics Driving Planned Giving. National Conference on Philanthropic Planning, Minneapolis, MN, October 15-17, 2013 CRT Creation Peak Age: 70-74 CGA Creation Peak Age: 75-79
  23. 23. The future is bright…
  24. 24. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ charitable estate recipient among those with will/trust by family status Grandchildren Children only No Offspring (unmarried) No Offspring (married)
  25. 25. 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 1976(77-82) 1977(76-81) 1979(74-79) 1980(73-78) 1981(72-77) 1982(71-76) 1983(70-75) 1984(69-74) 1985(68-73) 1986(67-72) 1987(66-71) 1988(65-70) 1990(63-68) 1992(61-66) 1994(59-64) 1995(57-62) 1998(55-60) 2000(53-58) 2002(51-56) 2004(49-54) 2006(47-52) 2008(45-50) 2010(43-48) Year (current age range) Percent childless women age 40-44 in U.S.
  26. 26. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of charitable recipient by education level Grad School College Grad Some College HS Grad <HS Grad
  27. 27. 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 U.S. population share with bachelor's degree and above 55+ YEARS OLD 35 to 54 YEARS OLD
  28. 28. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ charitable recipient among those with will/trust by giving/volunteering Donor & Volunteer Donor only Volunteer only Neither
  29. 29. 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% U.S. aged 55+ giving ($500+) and volunteering volunteer charitable giving
  30. 30. Wills that won’t What ultimately happened to those written and witnessed will documents reported during life?
  31. 31. Reported wills are often unused 16% 38% 10% 19% 11% 6% Distributed estates where decedent reported having a written and witnessed will (n=6,063) No will found Will probated Unprobated will: nothing much of value Unprobated will: estate otherwise distributed Unprobated will: trust distributed Unprobated will: other
  32. 32. Funded trusts more likely to work 75% 5% 10% 4% 2% 4% Distributed estates where decedent reported having a funded trust (n=913) Funded trust exists No documents Will probated Unprobated will: Otherwise divided Will - Nothing much of value Will - Unknown
  33. 33. Documents • The will is only a back-up document • Ask about titling and beneficiary designations (especially qualified plans!) • Most wills are never used – let me explain why • Encourage trust planning • Consider alternate will language “a dollar amount equal to __ percent of my adjusted federal gross estate…”
  34. 34. Who are these people?
  35. 35. Lifetime predictors of a post-mortem bequest gift
  36. 36. 1. % years giving 2. No offspring 3. Highest giving 4. % years reporting funded trust 5. Female 6. Last reported wealth 7. Not married 8. Last reported giving 9. Growing wealth 10. % years volunteering
  37. 37. 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 8-10 years premortem 6-8 years pre-mortem 4-6 years pre-mortem 2-4 years pre-mortem 0-2 years pre-mortem Timing of Lifetime Surveys Lifetime giving and volunteering by estate donors Giving ($500+) Volunteering Bequest givers may not be your donors, but many used to be
  38. 38. When do plans change?
  39. 39. Factors predicting when charitable plans are ADDED
  40. 40. 1. Approaching death (final pre- death survey) 2. Becoming a widow/widower 3. Diagnosed with cancer 4. Decline in self- reported health 5. Divorce 6. Diagnosed with heart problems 7. Diagnosed with a stroke 8. First grandchild 9. Increasing assets 10. Increasing charitable giving
  41. 41. Factors predicting when charitable plans are DROPPED
  42. 42. 1. Decline in self- reported health 2. Approaching death (final pre- death survey) 3. Becoming a widow/widower 4. Divorce 5. Diagnosed with cancer 6. Diagnosed with heart problems 7. Diagnosed with a stroke 8. First grandchild 9. First child 10. Exiting homeownership
  43. 43. 1. Death feels near • Final pre-death survey • Decline in self-reported health • Diagnosis with cancer • Diagnosis with heart disease • Diagnosis with stroke • Becoming a widow or widower 2. Family structure changes • Divorce • First child • First grandchild • Becoming a widow or widower Plans destabilize when
  44. 44. Most realized charitable plans (shown in red) added within 5 years of death Total Number Total $
  45. 45. Although most charitable plans were added within 5 years of death, ONE longer- term plan was worth FOUR made in the last two years.
  46. 46. A 5% national sample of 2012 probate records in Australia showed an estimated • 31% of charitable wills were signed within 2 years of death • 60% were signed within 5 years of death Baker, Christopher (October, 2013) Encouraging Charitable Bequests by Australians . Asia-Pacific Centre for Social Investment & Philanthropy - Swinburne University
  47. 47. Plans destabilize as death approaches lifetime reports made as death approaches post-mortem transfers v. lifetime reports timing of the last changes made to the final will
  48. 48. Most still report charitable plans 10 years later 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1993/4 to 2004 1995/6 to 2006 1998 to 2008 2000 to 2010 10-Year retention of charitable estate plans age 70+ age 50-69
  49. 49. So where does “Once in, Always in” come from?
  50. 50. Old data Post-mortem for largest estates Plans destabilize as death nears We can see this only in a LIFETIMEsurvey not in a ONE TIMEsurvey
  51. 51. The NCPG (2000) study showed that 90% of planned bequest donors don't change their plans Fiction Among those (avg. age of 58) WITH a charitable plan, 10% chose “Amount Decreased” when asked about their overall plan, “Has the amount of the charitable bequest ever increased or decreased?” Fact It showed that IF charity stayed in, plan changes decreased total charitable amount 10% of the time
  52. 52. Practice suggestions What now?
  53. 53. “Count it and forget it” doesn’t work!
  54. 54. A bequest commitment is the beginning, not the end Higher value in converting to irrevocable commitments: gift annuities, charitable remainder trusts, remainder interests is homes and farms.
  55. 55. Charitable plans signed earlier DO produce larger gifts, IF they stay in (or they return later)
  56. 56. Don’t ignore your oldest supporters
  57. 57. Half of all charitable bequest dollars came from decedents this age and older… Current U.S. study: Age 88 New Australian study (5% sample of national probate files): Age 90 Remember that most realized charitable bequests are added within 5 years of death
  58. 58. Age at Will Signing (by share of total charitable bequest $ transferred) 76% 11% 13% 80s+ 70s pre-70 Australian data from: Baker, Christopher (October, 2013) Encouraging Charitable Bequests by Australians . Asia- Pacific Centre for Social Investment & Philanthropy - Swinburne University
  59. 59. For those 75+ with lifetime connections, stay “top of the mind” (service, service communication, mission communication, honoring/thank you, living bequest donor stories)
  60. 60. Many of our customers like to leave money to charity in their will. Are there any causes you’re passionate about? Would you like to leave any money to charity in your will? No reference to charity Charitable bequest decisions are often unstable and easily influenced Charitable plans among 1,000 testators Charitable plans among 1,000 testators Charitable plans among 1,000 testators
  61. 61. • Plans change every time a donor opens a new account with a TOD/POD or changes a joint account owner • Plans become unstable as death approaches • Stay connected! Stay communicating! The score doesn’t count until the clock runs out
  62. 62. A realistic boom is starting soon (5 years) But, trusts do Wealthy, consistent donors with a trust (especially childless and unmarried) Approaching mortality & family changes
  63. 63. My favorite student evaluation from a personal finance class… This class sucked. It was all about reality. I didn’t want to know this stuff.
  64. 64. Russell James, J.D., Ph.D., CFP® Professor Texas Tech University www.EncourageGenerosity.com www.EncourageGenerosity.com/ACBD.pdf Encouraging generosity: The demographics of charitable estate planning
  65. 65. Drilling down…
  66. 66. Race and ethnicity in charitable planning
  67. 67. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of charitable recipient among those with will or trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  68. 68. 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ use of will or trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  69. 69. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of charitable estate recipient by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  70. 70. Trends in use of funded trusts
  71. 71. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ use of funded trust by race/ethnicity White (NH) Black (NH) Hispanic
  72. 72. 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ use of funded trust by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  73. 73. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ use of funded trust by wealth Top 20% 60%-80% 40%-60% 20%-40% Bottom 20%
  74. 74. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ use of funded trust by education level Grad School College Grad Some College HS Grad <HS Grad
  75. 75. Extra details
  76. 76. 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012p U.S. population aged 55+ inclusion of charitable recipient among those with will or trust by household type Married Households Single Female HH Single Male HH
  77. 77. What are the best multi-item models to predict the amount of money left to charities at death? Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 base rate 1,499 703 -242 -199 -826 -561 -836 -636 -567 346 Average $k giving 1,415 1,344 1,340 1,024 1,004 1,078 1,056 1,044 1,244 1,250 Last reported wealth $k 4 4 3 3 5 4 4 4 5 No offspring exists 9,774 9,722 9,815 9,807 9,917 9,868 9,844 9,325 $k of giving in last report 336 341 317 301 293 286 286 % years reporting funded trust 9,960 11,125 10,049 10,014 10,096 10,195 Highest reported wealth $k -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 Average reported wealth $k 7 10 10 10 Lowest reported wealth $k -13 -13 -12 Highest $k year of giving -113 -114 Married -2,409
  78. 78. What is the combined effect (considering both adding and dropping) of various lifetime changes on the presence of a charitable plan existing rank Δ factor Δ in conditional probability 1 Start (stop) giving 0.0798 2 Start (stop) volunteering 0.0585 3 Increase assets by 10k 0.0001 4 Increase annual volunteering hours by 100 0.0091 5 Being diagnosed with cancer 0.0728 6 $1k change in giving to charity 0.0010 7 Becoming a widow/widower 0.0572 8 The last survey before death 0.0528
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