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Connecting The Dots: Social & Mobile (Facebook Marketing, Social Media, Online Communities, Mocial)
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Connecting The Dots: Social & Mobile (Facebook Marketing, Social Media, Online Communities, Mocial)

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There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumers with their ever increasing …

There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumers with their ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demographic or post college but younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on:

What are the actual social networking trends?
Are their basic human drivers behind these trends?
What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers?
What are the implications for brands and agencies?
How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients?

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Transcript

  • 1. SOCIALNETWORKSAND MOBILE 08. 10.11C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T STHE COLLECTIVE FACTORY LLC
  • 2. Gene Keenan - The Collective Factory LLC
  • 3. SUMMARY There has been a rush by brands in the last 24 months to embrace Facebook as the primary destination to connect with their consumers. The belief has been that consumer with their ever increasing network of friends represented an opportunity to disseminate their message in a cost effective manner. Recently however there have been a number of research reports indicating a decline across the board of engagement levels on social networking sites around the globe. This decline is concentrated in the key 18-29 YO demograhic or post college but younger than 30 age set. This document will try to shed some light on: • What are the actual social networking trends? • Are their basic human drivers behind these trends? • What are the technological drivers enabling these human drivers? • What are the implications for brands and agencies? • How do we exploit these changes on behalf of clients?3
  • 4. SOCIAL NETWORKING MYTHS AND REALITIES: A SUMMARY BELIEF REALITY Social networking is a new phenomenon Only the mechanic is new Despite the advent of digital the actual size of intimate reciprocal Digital allows humans to maintain large reciprocal networks networks are small (20-40 people) and a maximum of 150 Brand pages are generally a waste of money & time unless they I just need to create a Facebook presence are executed well with a marketing plan behind them Brands can reach a large network of people using social Most consumers will never see your message Facebook transforms marketing The same old marketing rules apply Mobile is still new Mobile will over take online in a year Over sharing of information is a new consumer behavior Only the mechanic is new driven by social networking4
  • 5. SOME MARKET NUMBERS
  • 6. FACEBOOK REMAINS DOMINANT PLATFORM U.S. Visitor Trend for Leading Social Networking Sites180,000160,000 Facebook.com140,000 Linkedin.com Myspace.com120,000 Twitter.com 100,00 Tumblr.com 80,000 GOOGLE+ 60,000 40,000 20,000 FACEBOOK IS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 STILL WINNING 1 1 1 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -20 - 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 -20 20 -20 20 20 un l ug - ep - ct - ov - ec - n- eb ar - pr y- n- J Ju A S O N D Ja F M A M a Ju5 Source: Comscore Media Metrix, U.S., Jun-10-Jun-11
  • 7. BUT GLOBAL DECLINE IN SOCIAL NETWORKING USEAGE HAS BEGUN Decline is seen in the key 18-29 Year Old User But: Middle age groups continue to grow and are the fastest growing7 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 8. DECLINE IN FB USEAGE BY ACTIVITY 10.0% July 2009 -> June 2011 5.0% Over time Facebook 0.0% usage contribution -5.0% drops off and -10.0% involvement becomes more -15.0% ts passive n le s p s ift p nd io nd u ou ofi ac /g ro at ie ie gr t nt pr tg en ic fr fr co a pl ur tis s ith to ed re ap yo ew ar w s lp in ge an n/ -20.0% on rn d Jo ta ge ia sa d gi fo os ic le sa es di us ed ot al es m a st ph m ch tm nt nt In a ar d Se Se ed de an Se in oa st Jo In pl U Global US US College Educated < 308
  • 9. THE MAJORITY ABANDONING FB ARE YOUNG ADULTS9 1/4 OF YOUNG ADULTS (18-29YO) LEAVING THE SOCIAL NETWORK SOURCE: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
  • 10. WHY THIS DECLINE IN USEAGE? “boredom” and “getting tired” of the services10
  • 11. WHERE ARE THESE YOUNG ADULTS GOING?
  • 12. FIRST A QUESTION:WHAT FACEBOOK ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED?
  • 13. MOVE TOWARDS HYPER PERSONAL, HYPER LOCAL ACTIVITIES INCREASED 0.0% 5.0% MOVE TOWARDS: Played a game HYPER LOCAL Started a group HYPER PERSONAL Online dating ENGAGEMENTS + Joined a branded group LOW ENGAGEMENT HIGH Uploaded videos on your profile IMPACT ACTIVITIES (video - analogous to a form letter) US College Educated < 3013 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 14. Tumblr Total UsersFACT:Activity is down and they are Per Day“leaving” FB. 0 12500000 25000000 37500000 50000000 InstagramWHERE:They are moving towards Tumblr, Total UsersInstagram, Path, Color, andGroupMe: Passion groups withmore authentic experiences. Per Day 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000Source: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=clientFriendlyUrl&id=1724424
  • 15. RICHER ENGAGEMENTS WITH FEWER PEOPLE
  • 16. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? (are there basic human drivers?)
  • 17. Because social was largely a activity done online it was usedto fill in the time between other tasks.As mobile has freed us from being tied to desktops it hasmade us more terrestrially focused creatures with mobileacting as the tether to our virtual lives.As these terrestrial experiences become more deeplypersonal, physically managing large networks of “friends”becomes “boring” and “tiresome.”
  • 18. THERE IS A HISTORICAL PRECEDENCE FOR THIS150 Dunbars number is suggested to be a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person. There is debate about the exact number but it is somewhere between 100 and DUNBAR’S NUMBER 250 BACKGROUND: Dunbars surveys of village and tribe sizes also appeared to approximate this predicted value, including 150 as the estimated size of a neolithic farming village; 150 as the splitting point of Hutterite settlements; 200 as the upper bound on the number of academics in a disciplines sub-specialization; 150 as the basic unit size of professional armies in Roman antiquity and in modern times since the 16th century; and notions of appropriate company size.18
  • 19. The average 22-year-old has over 1,000 Facebook friends Far beyond the carrying capacity of Dunbar’s Numbersource: http://www.intersperience.com/ May, 2011
  • 20. BUT THE AVERAGE USER HAS ONLY 130 FRIENDS DUNBAR’S NUMBERsource: http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics August, 2011
  • 21. FRIENDS BY AGE: LIFE STAGE Group Acceptance Self Actualization & Intimacy The social networking life cycle 1,000 1000 is to move from one of seeking group acceptance to one of self identity and intimacy. 750 College As we get older we move towards smaller more intimate 500450 groups and individual passions. Early Adult Life Middle Age Jr High/High School 250 150 Older users will never have 75 large networks because they 20 have moved beyond the group 0 acceptance phase of life. 13-16 YO 17-22 YO 30+ YO 40+ YO 50+ YO21 source: intersperience, gene keenan
  • 22. SO, SIZE DOES MATTER: SMALLER NETWORKS GET MORE LOVE Established Relationships 40 One-Way Communication Reciprocal Communication# OF PEOPLE 30 Despite large network sizes. Reciprocal communication 20 remains with a small intimate group 10 0 NETWORK SIZE 0 100 200 300 400 500 22 source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
  • 23. Q: WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THOSE HIGH REACH ONE-WAY CONVERSATIONS?
  • 24. ERIC BERNE Creator of Transactional Analysis Pastime Conversations A pastime is a series of transactions that is complementary (reciprocal), semi-ritualistic, and is mainly intended as a time-structuring activity: Small talk. Pastime conversations are low engagement but of high value from a ritualistic standpoint Example (while running into someone on street): Talking about the weather Headline newshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transactional_analysis
  • 25. THE RITUAL IS THE SAME TODAY BUT THE CHANNELS HAVE CHANGED YESTERDAY: IN-PERSON TODAY: VIRTUAL Talking about the weather Twitter updates General small talk Facebook updates Content from analog Content from digital+ LOW REACH HIGH REACH BUT BOTH ARE LOW ENGAGEMENT25
  • 26. MOST SOCIAL INTERACTIONS ARE “PASTIME” CONVERSATIONS Average User* “Sharing Information” Low Engagement “announcements” Broadcast out but typically not read, commented or synthesized* The primary difference between analog and digital ritual conversations: digital are typically not reciprocal (because they are not in-person) *You can most easily see this in twitter where information is broadcast and forwarded but rarely analyzed for accuracy. At the end of the day it’s not the content that matters but the ritual of sharing it.26 source: http://overstated.net/2009/03/09/maintained-relationships-on-facebook
  • 27. BUT BASED ON THIS RESEARCH THEN FACEBOOK ADVERTS SHOULD NOT BE EFFECTIVE FACEBOOK CTR GOOGLE ADWORDS CTR 0.011-0.165% 0.4-0.7% but... conversions were practically non-existent27 source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
  • 28. Q: WHAT DOES WORK?
  • 29. FIRST: WHAT ARE CONSUMERS PERCEPTIONS OF MEDIA? Emails I signed up for Editorial content such as a newspaper article Ads in magazines Brand websites 4% 3% 11% 3% 6% 3% 4% 4% 4% 36% 46% 12% 34% 49% 22% 52% 17% 31% 49% 11% Ads served in search engine results Products shown embedded in TV Ads on mobile devices Ads in radio 2% 7% 2% 2% 3% 6% universal in 19% 52% 19% 15% 53% 18% 11% 11% 50% 22% 15% 24% 51% 16% lack of trust Online video ads Online banner ads Ads on social networks Ads on TV 2% 2% 2% 7% 3% 17% 52% 20% 9% 14% 51% 23% 11% 13% 48% 24% 13% 26% 45% 19% Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All29 Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
  • 30. INDIVIDUAL relationships and collective wisdom however DO WORK RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PEOPLE I KNOW CONSUMER OPINIONS POSTED ONLINE note drop off between #1 #2 4% 2% 2% 1% 18% 58% 21% 45% 38% 10% friends and just consumers Trust Completely Trust Somewhat Neither Trust nor Distrust Don’t Trust Much Don’t Trust At All30 Nielsen, Global Online Survey, Q1 2011
  • 31. FACEBOOK REALIZES THIS WHICH IS WHY THEY DO THIS: Facebook attempts to be a “friend” by selling ads based on friend likes31
  • 32. GE STUDY PROVES CONSUMERS RESPOND TO SHARED CONTENT Research proves that close relationship recommendations is the best way to win32 source: http://adage.com/article/digital/ge-study-proves-consumers-respond-shared-content/232324/
  • 33. WHAT ABOUT FANS?
  • 34. MEASURING CORE FANS ON FACEBOOK CORE FAN: Any fan whose comment count is higher than the average is a “core fan”. This number ranges from 1.14 for Bob Marley to 2.03 for Bob Marley. WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT: Unless a fan actively participates in a brand’s Facebook Page and their activity on the Page has been continuous, the brand’s status updates will cease appearing in the fan’s Facebook news stream.34 source: http://bit.ly/mYPZ9k
  • 35. Q: WHY ARE CORE FAN COUNTS SO LOW IFBRAND X OR ARTIST Y IS A PASSION POINT?
  • 36. Campfire Versus Fireworks Theory Brand X or Artist Y might be a passion point but when that interaction takes place in Facebook it becomes less authentic because it’s not close and intimate Close intimate lasting Group experiences, exciting conversations but not intimatesource: Sam Huston
  • 37. IMPLICATIONS FACT: Young users are moving to mobile at an accelerated rate RESULT: Mobile allows casual connections to be maintained in a one way “shout out” (pastime conversation) using video posting while engaging in deeper connections with “true friends” and personal passions through smaller more intimate networks Facebook moves from ‘Passion Point” to “Utility”37
  • 38. IMPLICATIONS FOR FACEBOOK
  • 39. FACEBOOK FACT: Young users activity already mirrors that of older users once you strip away the “Maintained and One-Way” relationships RESULT: Young users will maintain large networks through pastime conversations but will have a smaller group of close connections (either through FB or a another third party passion site/app).39
  • 40. IMPLICATIONS FOR BRANDS
  • 41. THE PATH FORWARD INSIGHT SOLUTION Brands need to move beyond Pastime type For social this means conversations with consumers and into deeper • Being mobile which means understanding where more meaningful relationships with them mobile is going This means: • Going smaller by focusing on passions like: • Understanding your consumer • Instagram • Tumblr • Knowing their passions • Path • Relating to those passions • etc. • Being where they are • Providing services instead of advertising. The best • Providing value way to do this is with mobile • Creating opportunities to share instead of advertising to41
  • 42. CONTACT:Gene Keenangene@thecollectivefactory.com415-218.7369http://www.thecollectivefactory.com
  • 43. ADDITIONAL DATA POINTS
  • 44. MOBILE INTERNET IS NOW FREE AND EVERYWHERE Observation: Smartphones are now “free” Implication: Acceleration of the mobile consumer44 Source:AT&T / August 2011
  • 45. IN 12 MONTHS MOBILE WILL OVERTAKE ONLINE NOW 1 YEAR FROM NOW 1% 3% 1% 12% 11% 7% 7% 2% 18% One year from now mobile devices combined will match 19% PC/Laptops as people’s preferred 77% 42% internet access device E-Reader Mobile Phone Personal PC/Laptop Tablet Device Through my TV Work PC/Laptop WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS YOUR FAVORITE DEVICE TO ACCESS THE INTERNET45 Source: http://globalwebindex.net / August 2011
  • 46. MOBILE DRIVING SOCIAL NETWORKING GROWTH April 2008 April 2009 April 2010 Category # of Unique Users # of Unique Users # of Unique Users (000) (000) (000)500% Social 5,270 13,905 27,007 Networking 412%375% Search 11,817 24,846 35,573 Entertainment 9,687 17,330 25,791250% 218%125% 0% Social Networking Search46 source: nielsen - april 2010
  • 47. MOBILE SOCIAL NETWORKING APP USEAGE IS SOARING 240% since last year. Pastime social networking activity is quickly moving to mobile47 source: comscore - June, 2010
  • 48. LARGE MOBILE COMPANIES 2x more active than desktop-only users Mobile = 50% of total active users, 200 MM mobile active vs. 25% Y/Y users vs. 50MM in 9/09 Mobile = 40% of all tweets 50% of all users subscribe on 100MM mobile users vs. 50MM Y/Y mobile48 Source: KPCB / June 2011
  • 49. 60% Of all Smartphone owners have used a location based servicesource: Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project
  • 50. HOW CAN BRANDS REACH CRM for those users who “Like” the brand can be used to generate the “friend recommendation” (most effective) brands want.EXAMPLE:Lauren Mary Banana Republic sends Lauren a coupon for Like Works shopping and tells It leverages a brand Likes Banana her she can bring a advocate to act as a Republic They go shopping sales person on the friend: She brings her friend Mary. brands behalf50
  • 51. Facebook counts as “active” users who go to its Web site or itsTitle Line One mobile site. But it also counts an entire other category of peopleSecondary title line who don’t click on facebook.com as “active users.” According to the company, a user is considered active if he or she “took an action to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections via a third-party Web site that is integrated with Facebook.” Come again? In other words, every time you press the “Like” button on NFL.com, for example, you’re an “active user” of Facebook. Perhaps you share a Twitter message on your Facebook account? That would make you an active Facebook user, too. Have you ever shared music on Spotify with a friend? You’re an active Facebook user. If you’ve logged into Huffington Post using your Facebook account and left a comment on the site — and your comment was automatically shared on Facebook — you, too, are an “active user” even though you’ve never actually spent any time on facebook.com.51 http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/those-millions-on-facebook-some-may-not-actually-visit/