Energy 101
Energy Technology and Policy
Dr. Michael E. Webber
The University of Texas at Austin
Module 2: Energy Transitio...
For the Last Decade, Headlines Have
Declared the End of Oil
June 2004October 2003 August 2005
2
Webber Energy GroupWebber ...
Today’s Headlines are Very Different
May 2013March 2013
3
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
Energy situations
can change quickly.
4
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
Energy transitions
have happened before.
5
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
Energy Transitions Have a Few Features
•They are more typical than we might expect
•They take a long time
•They tend to fo...
The U.S. Fuel Mix Has Changed With Time
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
© Michael E. Webber
1800 1820 1840 1...
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FractionofEnergyMix
Year
The Fuel Mix ...
Renewable Energy Consumption Has Grown
Significantly in the Last Decade
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2...
The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused
Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920
Source: The Relation of Geograph...
The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused
Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920
Source: The Relation of Geograph...
Whale Oil Supplies Peaked in the Mid-1800s
1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864...
Energy Transitions Show a Trend
Toward Decarbonization
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 19...
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have
Recently Decreased
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
2
4
6
...
The U.S. Energy Situation is Improving
•After 40 years of declining production and increasing
imports, things are turning ...
How we use energy has
changed from antiquity to the
Industrial Revolution.
15
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
There Were Several Forms and Applications
of Kinetic Energy in Antiquity
Wiki Commons
•Medieval forms of kinetic energy
‣D...
There Were Several Forms and Applications
of Thermal Energy in Antiquity
•Medieval uses of
thermal energy
‣Cooking
‣Making...
The Industrial Revolution’s Main Enabler was
a Breakthrough in Energy Conversion
•Invention of steam
engine in 1700s enabl...
The oil crises of the 1970s only
temporarily changed behavior
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 ...
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads]
Year
Fos...
The USA and World Use Similar Fuel Mixes
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011Energ...
The USA and World Both
Rely Heavily on Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuels Other Sources
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
13.6%
86.4%
12.9%
87.1%...
Dependence on Fossil Fuels Is Diverging
for the USA and World
2008 2009 2010 2011
86%
87%
88%
87.9%
87.3%
87.2%
86.4%
87.2...
“It’s tough to make predictions,
especially about the future.”
—Yogi Berra
24
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
1980–2035 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption by Source
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2...
Projections are Often Wrong
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
35
70
105
140
AnnualEnergyConsumption...
Projections for U.S. Natural Gas Imports
Dropped Significantly Between 2006 and 2012
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 201...
Energy is going through a
transition globally.
28
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
Several Global Trends are
Driving the Energy System
•Population growth
•Economic growth
•Urbanization
•Industrialization
•...
The Energy Transition will be
Comprised of Three Shifts
•A change in total
demand for energy
‣Population growth pushes
tot...
Prediction 1: Energy will get
cleaner, smaller, and smarter.
31
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
Prediction 2: Natural gas will
overtake petroleum as the
dominant fuel source in the
USA within 10 to 20 years.
32
Webber ...
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads]
Year
Historical Projected
Petroleum
Natu...
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads]
Year
Fast Transition
Historical Projecte...
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034
U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads]
Year
Historical Projected
Petroleum
Natu...
Dr. Michael E. Webber
36
Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
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Energy 101

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Energy 101

  1. 1. Energy 101 Energy Technology and Policy Dr. Michael E. Webber The University of Texas at Austin Module 2: Energy Transitions Over Time 1 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  2. 2. For the Last Decade, Headlines Have Declared the End of Oil June 2004October 2003 August 2005 2 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  3. 3. Today’s Headlines are Very Different May 2013March 2013 3 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  4. 4. Energy situations can change quickly. 4 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  5. 5. Energy transitions have happened before. 5 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  6. 6. Energy Transitions Have a Few Features •They are more typical than we might expect •They take a long time •They tend to follow a path towards higher-performing fuels •They solve one problem while introducing another •They tend to follow a path towards decarbonization 6 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  7. 7. The U.S. Fuel Mix Has Changed With Time Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables © Michael E. Webber 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year Wood Dominant Coal Dominant Oil Dominant 1800–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 7 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  8. 8. 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2011 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FractionofEnergyMix Year The Fuel Mix Has Diversified Over Time © Michael E. Webber Petroleum Nuclear Renewables Natural Gas Coal 1800–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption Share by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 8 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  9. 9. Renewable Energy Consumption Has Grown Significantly in the Last Decade 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0 1 2 3 4 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year © Michael E. Webber Hydroelectric Wood Biofuels Wind Other 1951–2011 U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 9 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  10. 10. The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920 Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 1620 10 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  11. 11. The Use of Wood as a Fuel and Feedstock Caused Widespread Deforestation Between 1620–1920 Source: The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, William B. Greeley, 1925 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin Each dot represents 25,000 acres. 1620 1920 MillionAcresofVirginForest Year 820 138 1920 10 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  12. 12. Whale Oil Supplies Peaked in the Mid-1800s 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 0 4 8 12 AnnualWhaleOilImports[MillionGallons] Year “Peak Whale:” 1845 10-year average © Michael E. Webber 1804–1876 U.S. Whale Oil Imports from Whaling Ships Source: Alexander Starbuck, History of the American Whale Fishery, 1878, pp. 660–661 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 11 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  13. 13. Energy Transitions Show a Trend Toward Decarbonization 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 CarbonIntensityofEnergyConsumption[gC/BTU] Year 0.021 Petroleum 0.016 Natural Gas 0.027 Coal 0.032 Wood All Sources © Michael E. Webber 1850–2000 U.S. Carbon Intensity of Energy Source: A. Grübler and N. Nakicenovic, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 1996, 53, 97–110 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 12 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  14. 14. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Have Recently Decreased 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0 2 4 6 8 Year © Michael E. Webber Recession Fuel Switching and Efficiency 1951–2011 U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy Consumption Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin AnnualEmissionsofCO2 [BillionMetricTons] 13 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  15. 15. The U.S. Energy Situation is Improving •After 40 years of declining production and increasing imports, things are turning around ‣Domestic energy production is up: oil, gas, wind, solar, geothermal, bio ‣Energy consumption and imports are down •The fuel mix is diversifying •Vehicles and other end-use technologies are improving performance and efficiency 14 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  16. 16. How we use energy has changed from antiquity to the Industrial Revolution. 15 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  17. 17. There Were Several Forms and Applications of Kinetic Energy in Antiquity Wiki Commons •Medieval forms of kinetic energy ‣Dutch and Flemish windmills ‣Medieval water wheels ‣Sails ‣Muscle power •Medieval uses of kinetic energy ‣Sawing wood ‣Grinding grain ‣Polishing glass ‣Transportation 16 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  18. 18. There Were Several Forms and Applications of Thermal Energy in Antiquity •Medieval uses of thermal energy ‣Cooking ‣Making glass ‣Boiling soap ‣Making lime •Medieval forms of thermal energy ‣Wood ‣Charcoal ‣Peat ‣Dung ‣Straw Frau beim Brotbacken, 1854 17 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  19. 19. The Industrial Revolution’s Main Enabler was a Breakthrough in Energy Conversion •Invention of steam engine in 1700s enables conversion of thermal energy to kinetic energy •Electricity in 1800s allows thermal to electrical to kinetic energy 18 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  20. 20. The oil crises of the 1970s only temporarily changed behavior 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0 10 20 30 40 50 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year U.S. Energy Consumption has Mostly Been a Story of Growth During the 20th Century Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables © Michael E. Webber 1951–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 19 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  21. 21. 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year Fossil Fuels are the Dominant Primary Energy Source in Modern History © Michael E. Webber Fossil Fuels Nuclear Renewables 1951–2011 U.S. Energy Consumption by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 20 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  22. 22. The USA and World Use Similar Fuel Mixes Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2011EnergyConsumption U.S. [98 quads] World [531 quads] © Michael E. Webber 2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin Non-Hydro Renewables 21 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  23. 23. The USA and World Both Rely Heavily on Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuels Other Sources 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 13.6% 86.4% 12.9% 87.1% 2011EnergyConsumption U.S. [98 quads] World [531 quads] © Michael E. Webber 2011 USA and World Total Energy Consumption by Fuel Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 22 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  24. 24. Dependence on Fossil Fuels Is Diverging for the USA and World 2008 2009 2010 2011 86% 87% 88% 87.9% 87.3% 87.2% 86.4% 87.2% 87.1% 86.9% 87.1% FossilFuelConsumption Year © Michael E. Webber Worldwide United States 2008–2011 U.S. and World Fossil Fuel Consumption as Fraction of Overall Fuel Mix Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 23 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  25. 25. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” —Yogi Berra 24 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  26. 26. 1980–2035 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption by Source Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 / Annual Energy Outlook 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin Sources of U.S. Energy Supply are Expected to Change Very Little in the Coming 20 Years 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0 10 20 30 40 50 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year Historical Projected Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables © Michael E. Webber 25 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  27. 27. Projections are Often Wrong 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 35 70 105 140 AnnualEnergyConsumption[Quads] Year Historical 2012 2011 2007 2008 2006 © Michael E. Webber 2006 2012 Year 133.9 104.3 2006–2012 U.S. Annual Energy Consumption Projections Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 and Annual Energy Outlook 2006–2012 Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin Projected 2030 Annual Energy Consumption [Quads] 26 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  28. 28. Projections for U.S. Natural Gas Imports Dropped Significantly Between 2006 and 2012 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 -2 0 2 4 6 AnnualNetNaturalGasImports[TrillionCubicFeet] Year © Michael E. Webber 2006 Outlook 2012 Outlook 2003–2035 U.S. Natural Gas Forecast Net Imports Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006, 2012 • Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 27 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  29. 29. Energy is going through a transition globally. 28 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  30. 30. Several Global Trends are Driving the Energy System •Population growth •Economic growth •Urbanization •Industrialization •Electrification •Motorization 29 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  31. 31. The Energy Transition will be Comprised of Three Shifts •A change in total demand for energy ‣Population growth pushes total demand up ‣Economic growth pushes per capita demand up •A change in our end uses of energy ‣All societies electrify over time ‣All societies motorize over time •A change in our sources of energy ‣Domestic sources ‣Low-carbon sources ‣Sustainable sources 30 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  32. 32. Prediction 1: Energy will get cleaner, smaller, and smarter. 31 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  33. 33. Prediction 2: Natural gas will overtake petroleum as the dominant fuel source in the USA within 10 to 20 years. 32 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  34. 34. 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034 U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads] Year Historical Projected Petroleum Natural Gas Slow Transition Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA 2005–2034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 34 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  35. 35. 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034 U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads] Year Fast Transition Historical Projected Petroleum Natural Gas Slow Transition Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA 2005–2034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 34 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  36. 36. 0 10 20 30 40 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2034 U.S.Oil&GasConsumption[Quads] Year Historical Projected Petroleum Natural Gas No Transition in EIA Projection Natural Gas Might Overtake Petroleum in the USA 2005–2034 U.S. Oil & Gas Consumption Historical Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2011 • Projections: Michael E. Webber (2013) Graphic: Michael E. Webber, The University of Texas at Austin 35 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group
  37. 37. Dr. Michael E. Webber 36 Webber Energy GroupWebber Energy Group

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