West Coast Biosphere Reserve
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Is the WCBR viable - assessment of species and habitat criteria

Is the WCBR viable - assessment of species and habitat criteria

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  • Good morning everyone, the title of my presentation is: Predicting future land use as a planning tool for biodiversity conservation in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, South Africa

West Coast Biosphere Reserve West Coast Biosphere Reserve Presentation Transcript

  • Predicting future land-use change as a planning tool for biodiversity conservation in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, South Africa
    WaafekaVardien
  • The Cape Floristic Region (CFR)1,2
    Exceptional botanical richness, diversity, and endemism
    Late Cenozoic climatic stability
    1 of 5 Mediterranean global hotspots
    Conservation in the CFR3
    10 859 km2 conserved
    50% mountain landscapes
    9% lowlands
    Identified threats: invasive alien species, agriculture, and urbanization
  • Conservation assessments and land use4,5
    Appropriate measures of biodiversity in conservation planning
    More attention given to species and populations, rather than habitat
    Habitat loss is however, a major biodiversity threat
    The use of a land use classification system has been useful in estimating habitat loss and risks to biodiversity
    Land use: human modification of natural environment into built environment
    Land use and land management practices impact natural resources
  • The Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve (CWCBR)6
    Situated on the southwestern part of the CFR, north of Cape Town
    Rich built environment and cultural heritage
    Includes 18 vegetation types
    Climate is described as arid
    All the rivers in the area are classified as critically endangered
    Urban expansion has been relentless
    Lowland areas are particularly poorly conserved, especially where rare and threatened species occur
  • Research objectives
    Cape Towns’ major development corridor is northwards along the CWCBR.
    It has been predicted that between 2002 and 2012, the population of the CWCBR will double.
    Due to natural lowland being at risk of destruction, pro-active conservation planning is essential.
     
  • Materials and Methods
    Land use classes
    Natural vegetation
    Agricultural land
    Waterbodies
    Barren land
    Urban/ built up land
    Verification
    Google Earth
    S.A Land cover data set
    Accuracy assessment
    Cross tabulation
    Kappa analysis
  • Materials and Methods
  • Results
    Natural vegetation
    Agricultural land
    Warebodies
    Barren Land
    Urban/ built up land
    A. B.
    Figure 1: Land use maps of (A) 1990 and (B) 2006 of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Table 1. Area of land use classes in 1990 and 2006, and percentage change in land use classes between 1990 and 2006. Percentage change in land use classes are derived from the difference in area between land classes in 1990 and 2006, divided by the area in 1990.
  • Figure 2. Net change (in hectares) by land use category, for Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, based on land use maps derived from Landsat TM images of 1990 and 2006.
  • Natural vegetation
    Agricultural land
    Warebodies
    Barren Land
    Urban/ built up land
    Figure 3. Predicted land use map of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, by 2020, based on Cellular Automaton Markov modeling of a 1990 and 2006 land use map.
  • Table 2. The spatial extent of land use classes in 1990, 2006 and 2020 and the associated percentage change between 1990 and 2006, and between 2006 and 2020. Values for 2020 are predicted values based on transitional models derived from land use maps of the Cape Wes Coast Biosphere reserve.
  • Table 3. Transitional probability matrix of land use change between 2006 and 2020, based on a Markov analysis of a 1990 and 2006 land use map of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Proteaceae species
    Core zone
    Core designated
    Buffer zone
    Transition zone
    Urban area
    Figure 4. Distribution of Proteaceae species in the zones of the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve, derived from Protea Atlas data.
  • Number of species
    1 - 2
    3 - 4
    5 - 6
    7 - 8
    9 - 11
    Figure 5. Number of Proteaceae species, per 10 x 10 km grid cell, in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Brillouin’s index of diversity
    0.00 – 0.4
    0.4 – 0.8
    0.8 – 1.2
    1.2 – 1.6
    1.6 - 2.00
    Figure 6. Proteaceae species diversity in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Climate suitability
    Not suitable
    Low (0 – 2.5 percentile)
    Medium (2.5 – 5 percentile)
    High (5 -10 percentile)
    Very high (10 – 20 percentile)
    Excellent (20 – 40 percentile)
    Figure 7. Present climatic suitability for Proteaceae species in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Climate suitability
    Not suitable
    Low (0 – 2.5 percentile)
    Medium (2.5 – 5 percentile)
    High (5 -10 percentile)
    Very high (10 – 20 percentile)
    Excellent (20 – 40 percentile)
    Figure 8. Future climatic suitability for Proteaceae species in the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve.
  • Conclusion
    • Between 1990 and 2006: rapid growth in urban development and destruction of lowland habitat
    • Similar patterns predicted, for the future
    • With respect to Proteaceae species, zoning of the CWCBR is inadequate
    • In areas with high species concentration: conservation integrity is not maintained
    • Priority conservation areas need to be determined/ improved spatially
    • Future study recommendations: usage of higher resolution satellite images, and other plant/ animal species data
  • Acknowledgements
    I thank the Almighty for granting me my healthand knowledge in undertaking this project.
    A big thanks to my parents and FaqeerHassem for their words of motivation, encouragement and support.
    I thank Dr. Richard Knight for his supervision with this project.
    To James Magidi & Mohammed Kraush thank you for your assistance with IDRISI and your advice.
    Lastly, I wish to thank Audrey King, Linda Van Heerden, and my Honors peers for all the little bits of favors they have for me throughout the year, and to Professor Mark Gibbons and the NRF for the funding of my tuition fees.
  • References
     
    Goldblatt, P., Manning, J.C. 2002. Plant diversity of the Cape Region of southern Africa. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden89, 281-302.
    Cowling, R.M., Holmes, P.M., Rebelo, A.G. 1992. Plant diversity and endemism. In: Cowling, R.M. (Ed.).The Ecology of Fynbos: Fire, Nutrients and diversity. Oxford University Press, Cape Town, pp. 62-112.
    Conservation International. 2007. Cape Floristic Region. Accessed 25 Nov 2009, available from: www.biodiversityhotspots
    Cowling, R.M., Heijnis, C.E. 2001. The identification of broad habitat units as biodiversity entities for systematic conservation planning in the Cape Floristic Region. South African Journal of Botany 67, 15-38.
    Rouget, M., Richardson, D.M., Cowling, R.M. 2003. The current configuration of protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa—reservation bias and representation of biodiversity patterns and processes. Biological Conservation 112, 129–145.
    CWCBR Spatial Development Plan. Draft Status Quo Report. Report 1474/1, prepared for the Cape West Coast Biosphere Reserve by iKapaEnvioplan in association with CLES. 68 p.
    Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S., Parra, J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1965- 1978.