The Art Of Inference


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The introductory presentation used to train people in the "Art of Inference". Join the William\'s Inference Service group to learn more.

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The Art Of Inference

  1. 1. Inferential Thinking<br />Discovery, Insight, Intelligence<br />
  2. 2. Agenda<br />1:30 pm Welcome and Introductions<br />Collecting anomalies - the foundation of inference  - What to collect - defining the characteristics of useful anomalies.  - How to observe anomalies while scanning the business environment.<br />Group work sessions – In groups of 3 to 5 we will investigate a selection of current Williams themes in depth.<br />3 – 3.20 pm Afternoon Tea/Coffee<br />Weaving – Groups practice pulling the pieces together and drawing inferences  - Finding the context of change – careful use of historical perspective  - The use of symbols<br /> - The use of research (uncovering the unintended message)<br />Using discoveries<br />Questions/Discussion<br />4:30 pm Adjourn<br />
  3. 3. Learning Objectives<br /><ul><li>Using anomalies and surprises as a filter for information gathering
  4. 4. Inferring from a limited data set and recognizing patterns of change
  5. 5. Monitoring, testing and strengthening hypotheses using targeted research
  6. 6. Understanding symbolic power
  7. 7. Using discovery in business and investment decisions</li></li></ul><li>The Elements of Inferential Thought<br />Anomalies<br />Symbols<br />Color and Myth<br />Inferences<br />Anecdotes<br />
  8. 8. Observation<br />“It is not what you look at, but rather what you see.”<br />Henry David Thoreau <br />Danger and Opportunity<br />The “new” has no experts<br />Old knowledge can be a hindrance<br />Minimize the data so decisions are more accurate<br />
  9. 9. Anomalies<br /><ul><li>Superlatives – biggest, most, largest, fastest, slowest, etc.
  10. 10. Surprises – growth more than 20%, outpacing a leader, unintended messages
  11. 11. Firsts – the beginning of change.
  12. 12. Lies and deceit – strengthen significance
  13. 13. Incongruencies – “The empty parking lot” and “The dog that did not bark”</li></li></ul><li>Symbols<br />Myth as public dreams<br />Color choices<br />Negative impression – i.e. not what we have, but rather what we would like to have<br />
  14. 14. Anecdotes<br />Led by anomaly and symbol<br />Observations in one instance can be extrapolated to a larger cultural significance<br />Important to stimulate creative response to an inference<br />Emerge from discussion and relationships<br />
  15. 15. Inferences<br />Making hypotheses beyond cause/effect relationships<br />Inclusive of an awareness of the relative danger/opportunity<br />Need a broad perspective, yet a specific lens (limited data set)<br />Early warning, predictive, but not timed<br />Corollaries often surface with time<br />
  16. 16. Decisions and Awareness<br /><ul><li>More information does not always make better decisions
  17. 17. Inferential thinking is a means to see through the clutter of information overload
  18. 18. Try to use only a few pieces of information to make key decisions
  19. 19. Base decisions on inferences rather than history alone
  20. 20. History is useful in the development of the “gut feeling”
  21. 21. Inferential training helps professionals gain sufficient confidence to achieve accuracy ahead of the curve
  22. 22. Inference provides a information needed to monitor the business environment</li></li></ul><li>Using Inference<br /><ul><li>Intelligence
  23. 23. Unintended messages looking for an insight
  24. 24. Design
  25. 25. An insight looking for options
  26. 26. Choice
  27. 27. Selecting an option and taking action
  28. 28. Review
  29. 29. Monitoring the process for added value</li></li></ul><li>Conclusion<br />Questions?<br />Contact<br />David Waechter<br />828-234-1594<br /><br />