جمعية إدامـــة للمياه والبيئة والطاقة» نحو اقتصاد أردني أخضر« ملتقى الطاقة المتجددة وكفاءة استخدام الطاقة ﻤﻤﻭل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ
لإلستراتيجية الوطنية للطاقة برنامج ملتقى الطاقة المھندس وليد شاھين المتجددة وكفاءة استخدام خبير في الطاقة المتجددة الطاقة المركز الوطني لبحوث الطاقة أفضل الممارسات في مجال الطاقة المتجددة وكفاءة استخدام الطاقة السيد جيك ديلفيا Chief of Party Deloitte Consulting دراسة واقعية المھندس أمجد علقم رئيس فرع األردن لمھندسي الطاقة العالمية
The UpdatedComprehensive Energy Strategy Summary By Eng. Walid Shahin Senior Energy Expert, NERC 15 Feb. 2012
Challenges facing the energy sector in Jordan Jordan is lacking Indigenous energy resources The country needs to import almost all of its fuel needs (96%) cost of consumed energy to the kingdom: In 2010, it reached 2.6 billion JD, accounting for 13.3% of GDP
The following has been recommended toaddress these challenges1.Achieve security of oil derivatives & electricity supply.2.Shift the energy fuel mix from oil to gas in power generation and energy-intensiveindustries.3.Development of domestic energy resources: • Evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of oil shale exploitation in Jordan through direct burning to generate electricity or through distillation to produce petroleum. • Expand exploration projects in an attempt to discover indigenous natural gas and oil resources through promoting and marketing areas open to investment in the Kingdom, building and enhancing skills of human resources in this field • Strengthen the role of the National Energy Research Center to develop the exploitation of new and renewable energy resources, promote energy conservation and establish suitable regulatory frameworks to manage these resources
Energy supply and demand in Jordan today • Energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels natural gas and oil products • Jordan is highly dependent on imports (costs equivalent to 19.5% of GDP) • Demand for energy & electricity are rising at very high growth rates: 8% annually on average since 2004. Energy supply by fuel sources 2010 Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%7 Domestic Resources 25%, Imported 75%
Electricity Generated to Meet FutureDemand 7000 6000 5000 Capacity 4000 3000 2000 curren 1000 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Year current + additional units current units peak load (m edium scenario) peak load (m edium scenario) The anticipated electricity demand in 2020 is 5770 MW compared with 2100 MW in 2007. The additional generated capacity needed is 4100 MW, an average of 300 MW per year.
Growth of Primary Energy Demand 18 17 16 15 14 13 million ton 12 11 10 9 8 7 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Year low range forcast m id-range forecast high range forecast In 2020, the expected demand for primary energy amounts to 15 million tons of oil equivalent as compared to 7.6 million tons of oil equivalent in 2007.
In January 2007, His Majesty King Abdullah IIentrusted a Royal Committee to:• Review and modernize the national energy strategy.• Reconsider the national energy strategy for restructuring the energy sector• Draw up a work program with clear mechanism and specified cost within a time frame
Formation of subcommittees within fouraxes, as follows•Crude Oil, electricity and Natural Gas.•Renewable energy and energy conservation.•Alternative and local energy sources .•Legislation and laws
PURPOSE OF JORDAN ENERGY STRATEGY•Jordan Energy Strategy is needed to respond to long-termchallenges of energy security and climate change.•To account for key challenges and set the direction for thefuture evolution of Jordans energy sector.•To establish long-term policy intentions and guiding principlesfor decisions about the various energy options.•To identify where investment is needed and also increase thecoordination of actions made across the energy sector.•To provide consistent guidance for energy decisions over timeand the cumulative impact of these will facilitate the transitionto a more sustainable energy future.
Methodology•Review main substance of the strategy and the most importantrecommendations as outlined in the strategy dated 7th December2004.•Examine what has been accomplished by strategy and identifyconstraints and other developments.•Review and update expectations demand for crude oil and oilproducts, natural gas and electricity until 2020.•Study the alternatives available to meet this demand and choose thebest alternative.•Develop a plan and timetables for the implementation of projectsneeded to meet the requirements within appropriate alternatives.•Determining technical requirements, financial and legislativeimplementation of these projects.•Making recommendations.
The Energy Mix in Jordan (2007 – 2020) 2015 Imported ElectricityDomestic Resources 25%, Imported 75% Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%
Oil Sector RecommendationsProceed with the program of restructuring/liberalizing the oil sector in accordance with the termination of JPRCs concession.Conduct medium and long term action plans to maintain storage of crude oil and oil derivatives for 90 days. This entails the following:• Increasing storage capacity for oil derivatives to 735,000 tons (medium term); which includes 51,000 tons of LPG to meet Jordans medium term needs, and to meet Jordans future needs.• Increasing buffer storage for crude oil in Aqaba to 230,000 tons through the refurbishment of the oil port by Aqaba Petroleum Company to replace the Jerash Tanker.
Main Projects / Oil Project / Program Cost ($US Funding Implementation Plan million)- Jordan Petroleum Refinery - 1275 - Private Sector -Select a strategic partner (03/2008) Companys Fourth Expansion -Conclude studies and agreements Project and arrange financing (06/2009) -Project implementation (06/2009 – 06/2012)- Establish marketing, - 312 - Private Sector - Issue tender (01/2008) distribution and logistics oil - Receive proposals (03/2008) companies as well as LPG - Establish companies (06/2008) companies- Construct an oil pipeline from - 260 - Private Sector -Implementation in accordance with Aqaba to Zarqa via JPRCs JPRCs fourth expansion project strategic partner or on a BOOT basis- Construction and - 66 - Aqaba - Sign the Development and Refurbishment of the integrated Petroleum Operation Agreement (01/2008 – oil port. Company 01/2010)- Construction of the oil and oil - 1482 up to - Private Sector - Continuous product storage units year 2020 (Logistical Company)
Electricity Recommendations • To expand on Independent Power Producer projects to generate electricity on a BOO basis • Provision of the necessary capacities of gaseous units to meet peak demand through: • Electricity generating companies • Including it in the request for proposals for future Independent Power Producer Projects. • Tenders for individual gaseous unit projects to be implemented by the private sector • Utilizing oil shale, renewable and nuclear energy to generate electricity
Main Projects / Electricity Project / Program Cost ($US Funding Implementation Plan millions)- Independent Power Producer 300 – 400 - Private Sector - Tendering procedures Project (Qatraneh) of 280 – 400 - Proposal Receipt MW capacity (02/2008) - Project operation (simple cycle 06/2010) - Project operation (combined cycle 06/2011)- Construction of Electricity 4254 – 5245 - Private Sector - Continuous projects using Generating Units (IPP) of 3740 various technologies MW capacity (2008 – 2020)- Enhancing the Electricity 563 - NEPCO (Internal - Continuous projects Network Grid funding plus (2008 – 2020) commercial loans with government guarantees)
Natural Gas RecommendationsImported Natural Gas:• Continue following-up with Egypt on the acquisition of additional quantities of natural gas (2 billion cubic meters per year).• Seek alternative sources of natural gas from other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq to meet the long run energy demand.Domestic Natural Gas:Developing Al Risha natural gas through:• Concluding negotiations with Anadarko as a potential strategic partner for the National Petroleum Company before the first quarter of 2008• Issuing an international tender to attract a strategic partner in the event of an inconclusive final agreement with Anadarko.
Main Projects / Natural GasProject / Program Cost ($US Funding Implementation Plan Impediments million s)- Natural gas - 65 - Al Fajr Egyptian - Implementation - Depends on distribution to major Jordanian (2008 – 2009) the provision industries Company of additional amounts of natural gas- Natural Gas - 400 for - Al Fajr Egyptian - Conclude agreements from Egypt Distribution phase Jordanian and arrange funding Network in Aqaba, one Company (12/2008) Amman and Zarqa - Implementation (01/2009 – continuous) - Phase one distribution to consumers (06/2010)- Extension of Arab - 30 - Al Fajr Egyptian - Project currently being - Gas Pipeline to Jordanian implemented Syria Border (30 Company - Project operation km) (03/2008)- Adopt a strategic - 1960 up - National Petroleum - Selecting strategic - partner to develop to year Company / Anadarko partner (03-09/2008) Al Risha Gas field 2020 or another Strategic Partner
Renewable Energy Recommendations• The implementation of the wind park projects on a BOO basis to generate 300 MW of electricity by 2015, and doubling that capacity by 2020.• The implementation of the solar thermal energy project on a BOO basis, to generate 300 MW of electricity by 2015, and doubling that capacity by 2020.
Main Projects / Renewable EnergyProject / Capacity Cost Funding Implementation Plan ImpedimentsProgram (MW) (M$)Al- 30 - 40 45 - Private The project is in the tendering process, The site is close to aKamsha 60 Sector and will progress as follows: military area that will Date of announcement: 12/2007 limit the possibility of Tender submission period : 3/2008 expanding the project to 100 MW Selection of the preferred bidder & start of negotiations: 5/2008. Financial Close, and contract signing: 9/2008 Supply, installation and operation: 3/2009Al- Fujeij 60 - 70 90 - Private -Date of announcement : The tendering process 100 Sector 6/2008 has to be inline with -Tender submission period: 11/2008 World Bank procedures, in order to be applicable Selection of the preferred bidder & to the 5 m US$ grant start of negotiations : 2/2009. Financial Close, and contract signing: 6/2009 Supply, installation & operation: 12/2009
Main Projects / Renewable EnergyProject / Capacity Cost Funding Implementation Plan ImpedimentsProgram (MW) (M$)Al-Harir 100 - 200 150 - Private - Date of announcement : 9/2008 -The completion 300 Sector - Tender submission period : 1/2009 of the - Selection of preferred bidder & start of measurements negotiations: 3/2009 phase at the site for a period of at - Financial Close, and signing of the least 6 months contract: 7/2009 -The lengthy & - Supply, installation and operation: high cost of land 2/2010 acquisition, (JD 5-6 million)Wadi 40 - 50 60 - 75 Private - Date of announcement : 11/2008 -ImplementationAraba Sector - Tender submission period : 2/2009 depends on the - Selection of preferred bidder & start of success of the negotiations: 4/2009 measurements taken - Financial Close, & signing of the contract: 10/2009 - The supply, installation & operation: 4/2010
Main Projects / Renewable EnergyProject / Capacity Cost Funding Implementation Plan ImpedimentsProgram (MW) (M$)Al Hussein Bin 100 - 150 150 - 200 Private -Complete wind measurements (1 - ImplementationTalal Sector year) depends on theUniversity -Issue tender (09/2010) success of theArea, Maan -Receive proposals (01/2011) measurements -Negotiations with winning bidder taken (03/2011) - There might be -Sign agreement and financial close a need to further (07/2011) study the -Project implementation and locations in order operation (02/2012) to ascertain results.Tal Al Hassan, 100 - 150 150 - 200 Private -Complete wind measurements (2 - ImplementationMafraq Sector years) depends on the -Issue tender (09/2011) success of the -Receive proposals (01/2012) measurements -Negotiations with winning bidder taken (03/2012) - There might be -Sign agreement and financial close a need to further (07/2012) study the -Project implementation and locations in order operation (02/2013) to ascertain results.
Main Projects / Renewable EnergyProject / Capacity Cost ($US Funding Implementation PlanProgram (MW) millions)NAANOVO 100 300 Private Sector Tender submission period : 4/2008 Signing of the Contract : 12/2008 Operation: 12/2009
Oil Shale Recommendations Concluding economic feasibility studies conducted by the four companies that signed memoranda of understanding for the exploration of oil shale (Surface retorting project) by the end of 2008, and paving the way for other companies. Conclude negotiations with Shell for a Concession Agreement to explore deep oil shale by the end of the first quarter of 2008. Direct negotiations with Estonia to build a power plant based on the direct burning method at a capacity of (600-900) MW. The project will be tendered on a BOO basis and is expected to be operational before the end of 2015. Conducting detailed Environmental Impact studies for all oil shale projects to ensure their conformity to environmental requirements. Establish a specialized unit for oil shale at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, or Royal Scientific Society / National Center for Energy Research.
Main Projects / Oil Shale1. The oil shale surface retorting projectSigning of the memoranda of understanding (MOU’s) with the four concerned companies in 5/11/2006: • Conducting project feasibility studies: 11/2006 - 11/2008. • Evaluation of feasibility studies, negotiation on the commercial agreements with capable companies: 12/2007 – 6/2009. • Completing the implementation of the project; the anticipated production of each project is about (5-10) thousands barrel a day: 6/2012Launching the second phase of the bidding on surface retorting: First Quarter of 2008.
Main Projects / Oil Shale2. Shell deep oil shale exploitation• Conclude negotiations with Shell for a Concession Agreement to explore deep oil shale, and submit it to the Parliament for approval: 3/2008• Assessment Stage: 2008 – 2011• Appraisal Stage: 2012- 2014• Pilot project stage: 2014 – 2017• Inspection of the pilot project stage: 2018 – 2020• Final Design Stage: 2021 – 2023 Note: The company needs a period of 12-18 years to complete the above stages at a cost of 450 million dollars in preparation for the final investment decision (FID). Commercial production will be phased at a rate of (350) thousand barrels of oil per day.
Main Projects / Oil Shale3. Electricity Generation by direct burning of oil shale with Estonia (600 -900) MW• Sign the MOU: 30/10/2007 Negotiation on the Heads of Agreement: 3/2008 Conclude the Agreement negotiations: 9/2008 Economic Studies, detailed designs and construction: 2015. (7 years from the date of signing the Agreements)
Oil and Gas Exploration Recommendations•Jordan has been divided into eight The Natural Resources Authority is toexploration areas according to geological reconsider: the terms of reference fornature. participation in the production•All areas of the Kingdom are agreements or Memoranda ofparticipating in Agreements of Production Understanding with domestic andor Memorandums of Understanding with foreign firms in the event of failing tolocal and foreign firms except Al-Jafr discover oil, as well as the division ofarea the open exploration areas. The Natural Resources Authority will start marketing Al- Jafr area to all companies interested in exploring oil and gas in 2008
Energy Conservation Recommendations• Establishment of the Energy Efficiency Fund to support energy efficiency programs/projects, as well as funding for renewable energy projects.• Preparation of comprehensive public awareness campaigns on conservation in energy consumption that targets all sectors at the beginning of 2008.• Establishment of Customer Service offices in order to increase awareness of energy conservation and efficiency improvement, at the beginning of 2008.• Exemption of energy-saving equipment from the general sales tax and custom duties, and develop appropriate mechanisms to facilitate their access, examples are solar water heaters and energy-saving lamps.• Develop a National Award for Energy Conservation
Mechanisms for the Application of National Building Codes for Thermal Insulation• Preparation of specific building codes for energy- saving buildings , installation of gas pipelines in buildings, and updating thermal insulation Codes and General Technical specifications for buildings as of the first quarter of 2008.• Enforcing the application of energy saving building codes by engineering firms by early 2008.• Issuing instructions of Quality Assurance Certificates for residential buildings in early 2008 to ensure the proper application of procedures set by the National Building Codes.• Amending and prioritizing the Jordanian National Construction Law.
Procedures for Energy Conservation inthe Transport Sector StrategyThis sector consumes about 37% of the total domestic energy consumption.• The reduction of custom duties and sales tax and any other charges on vehicles with small engines or energy saving systems (Hybrid Cars).• The shift to use of electric light-rail systems. ( Amman – Zarqa Light Rail project is expected to reduce energy consumption by JD 4 million annually)• Replacement and retrofit of modes of transport (Estimated savings in fuel by JD 18 million for the years (2008-2011).• The use of biofuels (ethanol) in the transport sector; which requires further research and study to reduce the costs of introducing biofuel.• A pilot project has been initiated for the extraction of Bio Diesel from the Jatropha plant.
General Royal Energy CommitteeRecommendations To coordinate the energy policies and monitor the performance, development and organization of the energy sub-sectors, the Royal Energy Committee recommends the following: • Establishing a higher committee to monitor and follow-up the implementation of the energy strategy • The establishment of a unified Regulatory Body for the sector.
The Investment PlanThe Estimated volume of investment required for the projects in the energy sector(2008-2020) is between (14-18) billion dollars, an average of 1.2 billion per year : SECTOR Updated Investment cost (2007) in $US millionsOil 3399Electrical Energy 4817-5808 (Includes a nuclear power plant at an estimated cost of (1) billion dollars)Natural Gas 2416Renewable Energy 2115 - 1415Improve the efficiency of energy 76 - 152consumptionOil Shale Exploration 1400 - 3800TOTAL 14 – 18 billion
Required Legislation• Issue a Permanent Electricity Law• Issue the Minerals and Petroleum Law• Issue the Renewable Energy Law• Issue the Geological Survey Law
According to the Master Plan the required investment in the energy sector is around $14-18 billion over the period (2008-2020) Oil Shale Exploration $1400-3800 m ImprovingEfficiency of Energy Oil SectorConsumption $3400 m $80-150 m Renewable Energy $1400-2100 m Power Sector Natural Gas $4800-5800m $2400 m RSS, February 09, 2012
18000 18000 16773 16773 16000 16000 Primary Energy Forecast (1000 toe)Primary Energy Forecast (1000 toe) 14000 14000 13252 13252 12000 12079 12000 12079 10000 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 Total Primary Energy 4000 Total Primary Energy 4000 Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency measures Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency measures 2000 Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2000 Primary Energy with Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 years years
Thank YouWalid R. ShahinNational Center for Research & Development(NERC)P.O.Box 1945, Amman11941, JordanMobile: 962-79- 9050085Phone: 962-6-5338042Fax: firstname.lastname@example.org
International Best PracticesImplementing EE& RES Programs By Mr. Michael Jake Delphia Chief of Party, Deloitte 15 Feb. 2012
Introduction EE and RES programs are always tops-down, bottoms up continuous approach National Policy & Support Framework Local Implementation43
Support from the Top Tax subsidies, EE National Energy Agency (National Products/material Policy, Strategy & and regional standards, Implementation offices), Green appliance labeling, Plans, Primary and certificates, certification of Secondary energy Unbundling energy energy auditors, legislation sales from new building codes distribution network services revenuesStrategy & Operations44
Selection of Municipal Certification of Energy Managers, feedback building, public facility to national agencies and upgrades, public ministries on energy use awareness, and EE/RES programs, coordination with Municipal energy modeling financing institutions, and analysis, municipal smart grid, intelligent energy planning homes, young learners Bottoms Up Activities45
IFIs/Local Banks/Micr o- Carbon EE and RES Donors Financing/E Traders Funds quipment Supplier Credit Capacity Building Financing Carbon Financing Capacity Institutional Credits Building Development Pilot Programs Support in the Middle46
National Policy & Support Framework Implementation Key to Success =Tops Down - Bottoms Up47
The Problem – power sector collection rate is about 50%, rolling power interruptions 4-6 hours every day and coal supply running low EE = Energy efficiency legislation, auditor certification, KEEA with local offices, many donor projects especially for schools and kindergartens, appliance labeling for imported appliances, ascending rates with high last block rate RES = Feed-in tariffs for hydropower, biomass and wind projects, national annual RES production targets, stream line licensing using authorization process Kosovo48
Load Energy Shifting Efficiency Fuel Switching Energy efficiency is part of the DSM equation4
The Problem – post war reliance on fuel from foreign aggressor, excessive winter thermal power production EE = Upgrades on transmission system to reduce losses and increase reliability, upgrades on the distribution networks, metering for individuals (eliminate communal metering), Covenant of Mayors membership by several municipalities to acquire EC grants, Program of Activities (CDM program) for lighting replacement), EBRD credit program with local banks. RES = large investment program for new HPP development to reduce winter season thermal electricity production, no VAT on exports during non-winter month sales, start of smart meters and smart grid. Georgia50
Business ApplicationsManufacturing : Need threshold amount of products to offer competitive price – need to compete against “cheap” imports - incentives for local production, installations Sales of Energy efficiency products and appliances RES equipment – subsidiaries of international solar manufacturers can be win-win – can be regional suppliers Economic development legislation, tax relief, low cost funding (good for sellers and buyers)Energy Services Industry Appliance and Products Distributors Energy Auditors ESCOs Engineering, Design and Installation of EE and RES projects Environmental assessment specialistsFinance Sector Equipment Supplier credits Donor/International Clean Technology Fund financing through local banks
Energy Efficiency &Renewable Energy in Jordan Case Studies By Eng. Amjad Alkam President of Jordan Energy Chapter (Association of Energy Engineers Chapter in Jordan) 15 Feb. 2012
Solar Electric (PV) at RSS RSS hosts the biggest Solar Electric PV system in Jordan Capacity: 280 kWp 1500 kWh/day (45,000 kWh/Month) Savings of JD 4000 / Month Investment: JD P/B Period:
Wind EnergyFeasibility Study on commercial wind farmsFor best 15 sites in Jordan
Energy Saving Programat a Amman University Total Energy Bill = JD 700,000 (old tariff) Energy Savings = JD 114,000 / Year % of Savings = 16% P/B Period = 20 Months
Solar Thermal ApplicationsStudent Housing (Irbed) Hot Water Requirements: 10,000 Liters Peak Demand Existing:40 electric heaters each of 50 liters capacity. 2000 Watts elements used 4 hours daily minimum. Solution: 200 Square Meters collectors. 10,000 Liters Storage. Savings: JD 11,000 (old tariff) Pay back Period: 2 years.
Solar Thermal Applications“My Hotel” at Aqaba Hot Water Requirements: 8,000 Liters Peak Demand Existing Situation: Diesel Boiler with 2 single coil cylinders. Cylinders Capacity 2x500 Liters combined Diesel Bills JD 12,500 yearly. Solution: 150 Square Meters collectors. 8 ,000 Liters Storage. Savings: JD 8750 / Year Pay back Period: 2.1 years.
Solar Thermal System 47% Savings of total Fuel Bill Savings: JD 25,600 / Year 116 Ton CO2 Equiv. Reduction
Energy Saving Program atIslamic Hospital Saving Percentage in fuel bill: 21.2% Saving Percentage in electricity bill: 14.1% Saving Percentage in water bill: 14.9% Total Saving in Energy Bill: 15.4% Annual Energy Saving (Old Tariff): JD 68,000 Investment (Implementation Cost): JD 83,000 Net P/B Period: 15 Months
Energy Saving Programs atIndustrial Facilities Annual Savings‐JD140000120000100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 ARAL JNC MPM PPP El‐Zay PIC MOW Pearl Islamic hospital UTC National Paints
Industrial Potential Figures are based on old energy tariffs applied during studies time (2000-2004)
WHO Building at Amman Energy Efficiency & Green Buildings Concepts were applied from the design stage then during construction phase. First LEED Gold Certified Building in Jordan and the region. 22.5% Less Energy Consumption 60% Less Water Consumption