Euro parliament ingraffea_june_2012

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Presentation by Professor Ingraffea during event on shale gas and fracking in the European Parliament (June 26, 2012)

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  • Great presentation from a long term expert on the field. Also see the video where Anthony Ingraffea is showcasing his presentation at the Clinton Central School Auditorium in Clinton, New York on November 28th 2011 => http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATGcTFQa1jU
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Euro parliament ingraffea_june_2012

  1. 1. 1860 Methane Concentration 1840 in Atmosphere, ppb 1820 1800 1780 1760 1740 1720 1700 1680 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 YearUnconventional Development of Shale Gas: A Critique A. R. Ingraffea Dwight C. Baum Professor Cornell University and Physicians, Scientists, and Engineers for Sustainable and Healthy Energy, Inc. Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Committee on Industry, Research and Energy June 26, 2012 1
  2. 2. DRAFT REPORTon the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities (2011/2308(INI) Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Rapporteur: Bogusław SonikB. whereas the Energy Roadmap 2050 identifies that gas will be critical for thetransformation of the energy system by helping to reduce emissions; whereas theCommission notes that shale gas and other UFF will become a very important newsource of supply in or around Europe;C. whereas the two main techniques deployed in unleashing the UFFpotential, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, have been used for decades;3. Stresses that prevailing expert opinion indicates that the inherent risks of UFFextraction, most of which are common to conventional fossil fuel extraction, could becontained through pre-emptive measures, including proper planning, testing, use ofnew technologies, best practices and continuous data collection, monitoring andreporting;7. Notes the importance of the work undertaken by reputableinstitutions, notably the International Energy Agency (IEA), to prepare acomprehensive Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference document on hydraulicfracturing; calls on the Commission to cooperate with the Member States, the IEA andindustry associations to this end; 2
  3. 3. DRAFT REPORT on the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities (2011/2308(INI) Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Rapporteur: Bogusław Sonik13. Believes that, given the depth (over 3km) at which hydraulic fracturing takesplace, the main concern regarding groundwater contamination is well integrity and thequality of casing and cementing;19. Notes that multi-horizontal-well drilling pads minimise land use andlandscape disturbance; 3
  4. 4. DRAFT REPORT on the industrial, energy and other aspects of shale gas and oil (2011/2309(INI) Committee on Industry, Research and Energy Rapporteur: Niki Tzavela Transition to a decarbonised economy 8. Is of the view that developing shale gas in the EU will help achieve the EUs goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, which is the basis of the Energy Roadmap for 2050; 9. Agrees with the Commission that gas will be critical for the transformation of the energy system, as stated in the above-mentioned Roadmap, since it represents a quick and cost-efficient way of reducing reliance on other, dirtier fossil fuels, thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions; believes that shale gas could, as a "bridge fuel", play a critical role in this, particularly in those Member States that use large amounts of coal in power generation;I submit that the statements which I have highlighted are questionable. And, there is NO mention of impact of shale gas development on climate change. 4
  5. 5. Unconventional Development ofNatural Gas from Shale Formations Is Spatially Intense: You Do NOT Yet Know What It Will Look Like 5
  6. 6. Unconventional Development of Natural Gas from Shale Formations Is Spatially IntenseBarnett TX, a MATURE play of ~ 15,000 wells Marcellus Wells Drilled 2008 – 195 2009 – 768 2010 – 1454 2011 – 1937 2012 – 300+ TOTAL ~ 5,000 Estimated # of Marcellus Wells at Buildout: 100,000 1 km In large U.S. plays, shale gas development has only just begun 6
  7. 7. Spatial Intensity Via Multiple, “Horizontal” Wells from Clusters of PadsFrom Cody Teff, Shell Appalachia, WELL CONSTRUCTION PRACTICES IN THE MARCELLUS 7
  8. 8. Example of Spatially Intense Development:Dallas/Fort Worth Airport Property, Barnett Shale Play • 53 pads on 18,076 acres, 30 square miles • Each red line is a well • Each red dot is a pad • Almost complete coverage • Patchwork, mostly ideal units • One leasor, One developer 8
  9. 9. An Industrial-Ideal Pad/Well Buildout Scenario 9
  10. 10. Clustering of Pads in Tioga County, PA 10
  11. 11. Pads Will Be Constructed Regardless of TerrainPhotos Courtesyof Bob Donnan 11
  12. 12. In the large U.S plays, shale gas development has only just begun,and it requires large number of large, multi-well, clustered pads and significant ancillary infrastructure 12
  13. 13. It Is My View that Developing ShaleGas in the EU Will NOT Help Achieve the EUs Goal of ReducingGreenhouse Gas Emissions by 80-95% by 2050 Compared to 1990 Levels 13
  14. 14. CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere: NOAA Seasonal fluctuation ~ ~ 2 ppm increase per year 2 ppm increase per year 450 ppm a a “tipping point” 450 ppm “tipping point” We have about 30 years… We have about 30 years… 14
  15. 15. Measured Methane Concentration in the Atmosphere: NOAA 1860 1840 1820Methane Concentration, ppb 1800 1780 1760 All Data in December of Year Uncertainty about 10 ppb 1740 1720 1700 1680 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/ch4/in-situ/mlo/ch4_mlo_surface-insitu_1_ccgg_month.txt 15
  16. 16. Methane Is a Much More Potent Greenhouse Gas Than Carbon Dioxide• 32 times more potent over 100 years• 105 times more potent over 20 years• Therefore, even small emission rates important Shindell DT, Faluvegi G, Koch DM, Schmidt GA, Unger N, and Bauer SE (2009). Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions. Science 326: 716-718. 16
  17. 17. http://www.globalchange.gov/ 17
  18. 18. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment Downstream Emissions (storage, transmission pipelines, distribution systems) Common to Conventional and Unconventional Gas
  19. 19. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment Upstream and Midstream Emissions from Conventional Gas
  20. 20. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment Direct, landscape scale measurements !!
  21. 21. Natural Gas Systems Now Produce 39% of Total U.S. Methane Emissions Methane contribution to entire greenhouse gas inventory (Howarth et al. 2012, based on 2011 EPA data for 2009) 21
  22. 22. Shale Gas is the Dirtiest Fossil Fuel Howarth & Ingraffea, Nature, 15 September 2011 22
  23. 23. Why Is Controlling Methane (CH4) Emission So Important? Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012) 23
  24. 24. IEA’s Golden Age, Golden Rules, Or….?If IEA’s Golden Rules for social, regulatory and environmental rulesare followed, by that agency’s own estimates, we will be on atrajectory to 3.5 degrees Celsius of global warming this century.“A 3.5 degrees Celsius temperature increase trajectory isunacceptable in terms of its implications for humanbeings, climate, species, and the fragile equilibrium of our planet…If countries only rely on gas replacing coal for their environmentalpolicies they would make a mistake…”Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, 30 May, 2012 24
  25. 25. “There is no time to waste….”“Natural gas is a delaying tactic…There is no time to waste…We have to decide whether we are in the business of delayingbad outcomes or whether we are in the business of preventingbad outcomes.”Ken Caldiera, Senior ScientistDepartment of Global Ecology,Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CAApril 15, 2012 25
  26. 26. Thank You for Attendingand Participating Today www.psehealthyenergy.org 26

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