Agriculture sits at the nexus of three major challenges that will face humankind in the 21st century.
The first challenge for agriculture relates to achieving food security. Nearly a billion people go hungry today, another billion over-consume and in 15 years there will be another billion persons to feed.
It is estimated that 100% more food will be needed by 2050 (assuming current trajectories of diets and populations). This has major implications for land cover change.
The second challenge for agriculture relates to climate change adaptation. And if there is a single graph to show this challenge then it is this one for SSA.Thornton from ILRI uses a four degree temperature rise scenario, which based on current commitments to reduce GHGs is a distinct possibility. By 2090 vast areas of Africa will have experienced >20% reduction in growing season length. And huge areas 5-20% reduction. Almost no areas have rises in growing season. This illustrates the magnitude of potential impacts on agriculture from climate change.
The third challenge for agriculture relates to its environmental footprint. Recent compilations suggest that food systems contribute 19-29% of global greenhouse gasses, including those through land cover change. The CCAFS program is designed to tackle these challenges.
In CCAFS we don’t start with research questions and hypotheses. We start with what we want to achieve. Together with partners we define the kinds of outcomes we want to see.
To ensure co-learning amongst ourselves and key stakeholders, in order to define mutually agreed outcomes and to build the partnerships needed for impact, we have to ensure that users of the research have a say in defining the research. And this has to happen at different scales.In east Africa, this is what we undertook in 2011.Regional platform ……National level -----Site-level much of our work is participatory, so that farmers can give input into research priorities and approaches used.
These are some of our globally-defined outcomes. I wont read them all. They are illustrative of the kinds of outcomes we want to achieve within three years. Once we have the outcomes defined we determine what partners we need to ensure the outcomes, what strategies we need to ensure science goes into action, and what research prodcuts are needed.To illustrate #3, the outcome we want is to influence how major agencies approach agricultural mitigation, to ensure that mitigation is a co-benefit of pro-poor gender senstive development. To achieve this outcome we identify some of the major players in mitigation and embark on joint action research. In East Africa this has seen us working with CARE and other NGOs, the WB, national agencies.
We work backwards from our outcome mapping – what strategies do we need to ensure widespread impact, what development partners can help us with that, what research products are needed to make a difference, and finally what research partners are needed to produce those products. I now give two examples of research/
CCAFS works closely with the meteorological agencies.This example comes from West Africa.In Mali we work together with the Malian Met Services, the regional Met organisation and WMO. CCAFS and partners are evaluating how climate information is delivered to farmers and how they use it.In the pilot scheme farmers get various types of forecasts and as a result major increases in yields have been achieved compared to non-participating farmers.This work also involves South-South exchange, where we see the Indian Met Services getting together with West african agencies to exchange experienceTogether with …………..So, this is a multi-partner initiative designed for impact.
Climate change forecasts: implications for regional climate change partnerships Dr James Kinyangi, Regional Program Leader, East Africa (CCAFS/ILRI)
A billion people go hungryAnother billion suffer nutrient deficiencies Another billion over-consume In 15 years there will be another billion people to feed
100% (+/- 11%) more food needed by 2050 with current trajectories of diets & populationsTilman et al 2011Proc. National Academy Science
Length of growing season is likely to decline.. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss To 2090, taking 14 5-20% loss climate models No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Four degree riseThornton et al. (2010) Proc. National AcademyScience
19-29% global GHGs from food systemsVermeulen et al. 2012Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Ensuring close connection with users Regional Learning Partnership Platform 3 National workshops - Setting policy and research priorities Participatory action research across 5 sites
Illustrative 3-yr outcome targets1. CCAFS (and partner) science used by key stakeholders to ensure that agriculture is appropriately incoprrated into the international climate agreements2. CCAFS (and partner)-produced tools and approaches used by the UNFCCC in the guidelines for national adaptation planning and used in adaptation planning in at least 10 countries3. CCAFS (and partner) science used by at least 6 major global agencies to provide incentives for women and men to do pro-poor mitigation
3. From outcome mapping to partnershipsOutcome mapping Scaling up strategiesDevelopment partners needed Researchproducts needed Research partners needed
1. Linking knowledge with action What? Who?Tree planting NGO’s – CARE, World Neighbors, ViBeekeeping Gov’t Extension; CBO’s – local groupsShifts to small stock Local researchers – KARI teamsCrop/income diversification CG researchersClimate resilient crops Strategies Outcome mapping The research Learning workshops Outcomes KARI/CG research teams Exchange visits Ext services more testing and evaluating Gender research demand-driven; improved practices with training enhanced services farmers Local TV, radio, cell Research largely Baselines; Monitoring change (incl. info on CSA options driven by user GHG’s); various indicators needs What inst’s and approaches benefit NGO’s informed by women? Enhance equity? research and Changes in practices – what’s climate responsive to user resilient? What changes are men vs. needs women making?
2. From local participatory work to regional impact• Mali Met. Service, ACMAD, WMO• Forecasts provided for 3‐days, 10‐days, and seasonal (inc. crop health...)• Major increases in yields for participating farmers• Also South-South exchange• Together with USAID, CCAFS is exploring scaling up best practice across the Sahel
To meet the challenges of climate change,strong partnerships are needed from local to global levels Thank you