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P2.3. Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the agricultural sector of uruguay: tha National Agricultural Information System
 

P2.3. Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the agricultural sector of uruguay: tha National Agricultural Information System

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    P2.3. Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the agricultural sector of uruguay: tha National Agricultural Information System P2.3. Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the agricultural sector of uruguay: tha National Agricultural Information System Presentation Transcript

    • Improving adaptation to climate change for sustainable development in the agricultural sector of Uruguay: The National Agricultural Information System Walter E. Baethgen Director, Climate Services Program International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New YorkW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Adapt to What? Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs) Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land1. Great advances in science, but still lots to understand: Limitations of the Models 2. Key Input: GHG Emissions Assumptions: (e.g., in 2080-2100) Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates? Population? Uncertainties (IPCC Scenarios)W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios 1000 900 800 A1B CO2 ppm 700 A1F A2 600 B1 500 B2 400 300 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 CO2 atmospheric concentration for different development options In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions) Fuente: IPCC, 2001W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Global Temperature For Diffrerent Socioeconomic Scenarios Uncertainty Source: IPCC, 2007 At regional or local levels Uncertainty is much largerW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Precipitation Projections for 2090-2099 Precipitation in DJF For Rainfall uncertainties are much larger IPCC, 2007W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Decisions are made at Local (Regional) Level At Regional level Uncertainties are larger (Individual Model Runs and Averages) East Africa Giannini et al., 2007, IRI This is for large “Windows” At Local Level Uncertainties are much largerW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • • Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain• IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment However: Published articles with Crop Yield as if Information was Perfect Projections for 2020, 2050, 2080 Percent change in Crop Yields 2020 for one climate change scenario (one model) DANGER: 2050 This is easily understandable Can be “erroneously” believed Can Lead to “Maladaptation” 2080W.E.Baethgen 2012 Uncertainty?
    • Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers: Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems Scientific Community: Climate Scenarios for 2080, 2100 Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is huge Result: Adaptation to CC is often not in the policy agendas Can it be incorporated into Planning, Development?W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • A Different Approach for Adaptation Climate Change: Climate Risk Management Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already) as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (damaging/extreme events: droughts, floods). Learning to cope with Current Climate Variability will lead to Less Vulnerable Societies Today that will be better prepared to Adapt to possible conditions of Future Climate With this approach, actions are needed at a time scale that is relevant for Policy Makers Work in Possible Ranges of “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years): Adapt with Flexibility (we do not have, and will not have “perfect information” on future climate)W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Conceptual Framework (1): Gap between Science and Applications, Society 1. Decision-makers approach problems holistically and often intuitively 2. Science traditional reductionist approach: Create ‘islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance’ (Meinke et al., 2007; 2009) Need to Integrate Scientific Information into Decision Frameworks: How?W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • URUGUAY: DACC, SNIA = Climate Risk Management Approach and Tools (Applied Systems Analysis Approach) Information and DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • CLIMATE INFORMATION REMOTE SENSING EXISTING DATABASES Tra SIMULATION MODELS “Traffic light” “Traffic light” colors colors GIS Easily Understandable: Inform Decisions, Planning (Country, Region or Farm) IRI is working with CCAFS and NARs: • Improving Adaptation to Current Climate Variability • Improving Crop Yield forecasts (Food Security) Excellent example of Partnership CGIAR - ARI - NARIW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Uruguay’s National Agricultural Information System Crop Production Outlooks (Food Security) with CCAFS (CGIAR) Assess feasibility of Agricultural Technologies (e.g., irrigation) Assess Sustainability of Production Systems (e.g., land use) Assist DACC Project in Sustainability of Investments in Farms Evaluate modalities of Agricutlural Insurance (e.g., Weather Index) Establish Early Warning and Early Response Systems (e.g., Drought) For Current Climate and for a Range of Plausible Climate Conditions in the Future (Adapt with Flexibility)W.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Final Comments Improving adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of Uruguay: Fundamentally Focussed in Improving Adaptation to Today’s Climate and to a range of Plausible Future Climate Conditions (Adapt with Flexibility). DACC Project: loan from The World Bank (Inter-American Bank) May affect how we start approaching Adaptation to Climate Change in the world (linked to Development, to Actions Today and Near Future, to Risk Management) DACC Project is an excellent example of CGIAR (CCAFS) partnering with other International Institutes (IRI) and National Institutes (INIA, Min. Agr., University) to respond to demand of public and private stakeholdersW.E.Baethgen 2012
    • Thank you Walter E. Baethgen Director, Latin America and Caribbean Program (LAC) IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University Columbia University, New York email: baethgen@iri.columbia.edu Internet: http://iri.columbia.edu/W.E.Baethgen 2012