1. The value of communities envisioning theirfuture through local scale foresight: up scalable foresight-based land-use planning Bayuni Shantiko (CoLUPSIA)
2. Background• Why?: Kapuas Hulu district is among the richest upstream forest resources, while local government promotes large scale land-based investment e.g. Palm oil, mining, etc. • Need stakeholders collaboration and building common vision on the possible future of development• By Whom?: CoLUPSIA (CIRAD, CIFOR, Telapak, Huma, Riak Bumi)• Where?: Kapuas Hulu district(218,804 inhabitants, 31,000km2), West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia• How long?: Series of workshop (May-July 2011); public consultation (2012); and will continue in 2013• Cost and funding: approx US$20,000; EU funded project
3. PARTICIPATORY PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS (PPA) Methodology PROCESS FLOW Question: What could happen Socialization: concept, method possibly with the development of Facilitator Kapuas Hulu in 20 years? team training Research: Biophysic, Socioeconomy, hydrology Qualitative approach: scenario COM’TY GOVT VILLAGE building with stakeholders inputs Pv Sector CONSULTATION UNIV SCENARIOS I suggest that you put a here also a picture of a workshop in a DISTRICT CONSULTATION village if you have some, or a picture of activities in a village AGREED VISION IMPLEMENTATION PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION
4. Analysis Key drivers: Government policy, use of technology, customary law and wisdom, mindset, participation, educat ion and skills 50 internal variables
5. Desirable scenarios: Undesirable scenarios: Government, communities and other Sc. 2,3,4 already happening SHs work together Sc. 2 environmental destruction Aligned vision and policies to achieve Scenario 3&4 recklessness in ‘society’s welfare’ investment decision: no benefit to Stakeholders change their current community behaviour
6. From Foresight… to Action Foresight work invites stakeholders in Kapuas Hulu to share the same vision and work together to make it happen Stakeholders proposal for action plan (May 2012) Tourism agency is interested in replicating the prospective method for ecotourism CoLUPSIA will continue facilitating stakeholders to strengthen commitment and develop collective action for balanced land-use with conservation and development
7. A Call to Action Strong top leader’s commitment is a must, otherwise any scenario will unlikely to be implemented From local to global: tenure insecurity is still an issue o While tenure security is a key driver of change and important variable for both development and conservation activities, o more research are needed to incorporate variables such as institutional arrangement, customary law, policies, participation etc. Land use for development or And conservation ??