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F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning
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F1. The value of communities envisioning their future through local scale foresight: up-scalable foresight-based land-use planning

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  • 1. The value of communities envisioning theirfuture through local scale foresight: up scalable foresight-based land-use planning Bayuni Shantiko (CoLUPSIA)
  • 2. Background• Why?: Kapuas Hulu district is among the richest upstream forest resources, while local government promotes large scale land-based investment e.g. Palm oil, mining, etc. • Need stakeholders collaboration and building common vision on the possible future of development• By Whom?: CoLUPSIA (CIRAD, CIFOR, Telapak, Huma, Riak Bumi)• Where?: Kapuas Hulu district(218,804 inhabitants, 31,000km2), West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia• How long?: Series of workshop (May-July 2011); public consultation (2012); and will continue in 2013• Cost and funding: approx US$20,000; EU funded project
  • 3. PARTICIPATORY PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS (PPA) Methodology PROCESS FLOW Question: What could happen Socialization: concept, method possibly with the development of Facilitator Kapuas Hulu in 20 years? team training Research: Biophysic, Socioeconomy, hydrology Qualitative approach: scenario COM’TY GOVT VILLAGE building with stakeholders inputs Pv Sector CONSULTATION UNIV SCENARIOS I suggest that you put a here also a picture of a workshop in a DISTRICT CONSULTATION village if you have some, or a picture of activities in a village AGREED VISION IMPLEMENTATION PARTICIPATORY MONITORING AND EVALUATION
  • 4. Analysis Key drivers: Government policy, use of technology, customary law and wisdom, mindset, participation, educat ion and skills 50 internal variables
  • 5. Desirable scenarios: Undesirable scenarios: Government, communities and other  Sc. 2,3,4 already happening SHs work together  Sc. 2  environmental destruction Aligned vision and policies to achieve  Scenario 3&4  recklessness in ‘society’s welfare’ investment decision: no benefit to Stakeholders change their current community behaviour
  • 6. From Foresight… to Action Foresight work invites stakeholders in Kapuas Hulu to share the same vision and work together to make it happen Stakeholders proposal for action plan (May 2012) Tourism agency is interested in replicating the prospective method for ecotourism CoLUPSIA will continue facilitating stakeholders to strengthen commitment and develop collective action for balanced land-use with conservation and development
  • 7. A Call to Action Strong top leader’s commitment is a must, otherwise any scenario will unlikely to be implemented From local to global: tenure insecurity is still an issue o While tenure security is a key driver of change and important variable for both development and conservation activities, o more research are needed to incorporate variables such as institutional arrangement, customary law, policies, participation etc. Land use for development or And conservation ??
  • 8. Thank you Muchas gracias

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