F1. From Global Futures to Strategic Foresight for Ex-Ante Research Assessment

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F1. From Global Futures to Strategic Foresight for Ex-Ante Research Assessment

  1. 1. From Global Futures to Strategic Foresight for Ex-Ante Research Assessment Gerald Nelson Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Theme Leader, CRP2
  2. 2. Why the Global Futures Project? If an investor provides an additional $x million to the CGIAR, how should it be spent to provide the greatest return on investment? o Financial ROI o Reduction in poverty o Improvements in sustainability The Global Futures project develops methods, tools, and a consistent system to help the CGIAR answer this question
  3. 3. How to evaluate potential technologicalimprovements: The ‘virtual crop’ method1. Ask the experts for details on what they think can accomplishtechnically2. Convert these responses into crop model coefficients3. Use crop modeling software to ‘grow’ the virtual variety everywhereand evaluate performance relative to existing varieties
  4. 4. Integrate biophysical productivity effects and socioeconomic modeling Supply/ demand interactions Socioeconomic modeling FPU level yield FPU and area boundaries scenarios SPAM crop DSSAT yield distributions scenarios Virtual crop Planting Climatic months conditions activities Management Soils practices
  5. 5. WHY SCENARIOS?The future is an uncertain place
  6. 6. Challenges in Modeling Climate ChangeAverage temperature change, 2010-2050, 2 modeling groups, scenario A2
  7. 7. Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, CSIRO A1B(% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
  8. 8. Yield Effects, Rainfed Maize, MIROC A1B(% change 2000 climate to 2050 climate)
  9. 9. FROM GLOBAL FUTURES PROJECT TOPROGRAM
  10. 10. Why do quantitative modeling for strategicforesight? What are quantitative models? o Mathematical descriptions of biological/socioeconomic processes o Calibrated with real world data Why model quantitatively? o When interactions become too complex to understand intuitively o When costs of modeling are less than the benefits o Global consistency
  11. 11. Global Futures Program has two elements:Multidisciplinary Center-based Teams Plant and animal breeders, physiologists, soil scientists, economists What will they do? o Identify technically promising options for technology enhancements o Adapt/improve production/system-specific models o Help design critical experiments and data collection protocols
  12. 12. New Approach with Two Elements:Coordinating Unit Develop integrated methodologies and tools Ensure that models are evaluated based on the science behind the components, including uncertainty Ensure that the models and outputs are transparent o E.g., open source utilizing GPL licenses Support multidisciplinary teams
  13. 13. Outputs Systematic transparent comparisons of ex ante evaluation of promising technologies Strategic foresight quantitative modeling tools for Outreach Food Security Futures Conference o first scheduled April 11-12, 2013 Capacity building o To increase range of foresight tools available to users

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