The “Chinaman” Scare . . .
Myth or Reality?
Projections for a
Non-Excluded Chinese Population


                          ...
The Big Questions
 Did the native-born American
  population really need to fear
  conquest of their “race” by the
  grow...
The Chinese Problem
                  Chinese Growth in the United States
                                          1850  ...
The Chinese Problem in CA


           Chinese Population Growth in California
                                           ...
Legislation against Chinese

•   Burlingame-Seward Treaty (1868)
•   Page Law (1875)
•   Chinese Exclusion Treaty (1880)
•...
Methods for
Answering the Questions

   What would the Chinese
 population in the United States
 have looked like had ther...
Cohort-Component
Population Projections

   Census 1860 (History Machine Version
    2.0. © 1995 University of Maryland)
...
Chinese Population Projections

                            350,000
Number of Chinese Persons




                        ...
Chinese Growth in the United States
                                   1850        1860       1870       1880
          US...
Future Research

 Un-grouping   Chinese from other
  “Asiatics” (1860 Census)
 Representative vital rates
 Projections ...
Any Questions?
Sources
• Coale, A.J. and M. Zelnik. New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States.
Prince...
Chinese Immigration Trends

                    25000
Number to Chinese




                    20000
   Immigrants




  ...
Expectation of Life at Birth
                                    Males      Females
                1850                  ...
Total Fertility Rates (1860-1890)
     1860            5.21      1870   4.55   1880   4.24
     1861            5.07      ...
Recorded Chinese Immigration
           1857           4,524   1869   12,874
           1858           7,183   1870   15,7...
Asiatic Males and Females
                            Enumerated 1860

    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 5...
Projected 1880
                                (no migration)

    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to ...
Enumerated
                            1880 Census

    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49...
Projected 1900
                               (no migration)


    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to ...
Projected 1900
                     (first estimate for net migration)



    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 t...
Projected 1900
                 (second estimate for net migration)



    80+
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 5...
Projected Chinese Total Population
                          Total
  Year       No Mig      1st mig      2nd Mig
      186...
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The “Chinaman” Scare...Myth or Reality? Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population

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Demographic and Social Analysis Program Exit Exam Presentation, prepared under advisor Gary Richardson, given at the University of California, Irvine on Friday, June 4, 2004

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The “Chinaman” Scare...Myth or Reality? Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population

  1. 1. The “Chinaman” Scare . . . Myth or Reality? Projections for a Non-Excluded Chinese Population Jennifer Vaughn Advisor: Gary Richardson, Economics Demographic and Social Analysis Spring 2004 Exit Exam University of California, Irvine Friday, June 4, 2004
  2. 2. The Big Questions  Did the native-born American population really need to fear conquest of their “race” by the growing Chinese population?  Did white unskilled laborers in 19th century America really need to fear increasing competition from Chinese immigrants?
  3. 3. The Chinese Problem Chinese Growth in the United States 1850 1860 1870 1880 US Population (100%) Total 23,054,152 31,183,744 38,155,505 49,371,340 Chinese 34,933 56,186 93,923 Chinese % of Total 0.11% 0.15% 0.19% % Change for Chinese 60.84% 67.16% Farm Wage Workers (1%) Total 2,942 8,561 29,817 34,316 Chinese 1 16 90 Chinese % of Total 0.01% 0.05% 0.26% % Change for Chinese 1500.00% 462.50% Mine Laborers (1%) Total 868 1,479 1,710 2,753 Chinese 66 120 211 Chinese % of Total 4.46% 7.02% 7.66% % Change for Chinese 81.82% 75.83% Laborers, misc. (1%) Total 6,170 8,428 11,661 20,137 Chinese 66 43 228 Chinese % of Total 0.78% 0.37% 1.13% % Change for Chinese -34.85% 430.23% Sources: US Historical Census Data Browser; Ipums-”Occupations-1950 Basis”
  4. 4. The Chinese Problem in CA Chinese Population Growth in California 1850 1860 1870 1880 CA Population (100%) Total 92,597 379,994 560,247 864,694 Chinese 34,933 49,310 75,218 Chinese % of Total 9.19% 8.80% 8.70% % Change for Chinese 41.16% 52.54% Sources: US Historical Census Data Browser
  5. 5. Legislation against Chinese • Burlingame-Seward Treaty (1868) • Page Law (1875) • Chinese Exclusion Treaty (1880) • Chinese Exclusion Act (1882)
  6. 6. Methods for Answering the Questions What would the Chinese population in the United States have looked like had there been no post-1880 exclusion?
  7. 7. Cohort-Component Population Projections  Census 1860 (History Machine Version 2.0. © 1995 University of Maryland)  Census 1880 (NAPP)  TFRs (Coale & Zelnik, 1963)  Life Expectation (US Dept of Commerce, 1975  Chinese Immigration (US House, 1903)
  8. 8. Chinese Population Projections 350,000 Number of Chinese Persons 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1860 1870 1880 1900 Year No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig Linear Exponential
  9. 9. Chinese Growth in the United States 1850 1860 1870 1880 US Population Total 23,054,152 31,183,744 38,155,505 49,371,340 Chinese 34,933 56,186 93,923 Chinese % of Total 0.11% 0.15% 0.19% % Change for Chinese 60.84% 67.16% 1900 US Population No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig Linear Regression Exponential Fit Total 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575 75,994,575 Chinese 79,198 327,101 298,639 150,166 250,909 Chinese % of Total 0.10% 0.43% 0.39% 0.20% 0.33% % Change for Chinese -15.68% 248.27% 217.96% 59.88% 167.14%
  10. 10. Future Research  Un-grouping Chinese from other “Asiatics” (1860 Census)  Representative vital rates  Projections for Chinese immigration without exclusion
  11. 11. Any Questions? Sources • Coale, A.J. and M. Zelnik. New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963. • History Machine Version 2.0. © 1995 University of Maryland • North Atlantic Population Project and Minnesota Population Center. NAPP: Complete Count Microdata. Preliminary Version NAPP 0.2 [computer files]. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center [distributor], 2001. Accessed on May 24, 2004: <http://www.nappdata.org> •Ruggles, S. and M. Sobek et al. “Occupations – 1950 Basis.” Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 3.0. Minneapolis: Historical Census Projects, University of Minnesota, 2003. Accessed on April 30, 2004: <http://www.ipums.org> • U.S. Department of Commerce. (1975). “Expectation of Life at Specified Ages, by Sex, for Massachusetts: 1850 to 1949-51.” Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 1. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. • U.S. House. (1903). Annual report of the Commissioner-General of Immigration for the fiscal year ended June, 30, 1903. (H.Doc. 758, 58-2). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. •University of Virginia Geospatial and Statistical Data Center. United States Historical Census Data Browser, 1998. Accessed on May 24, 2004: <http://fisher.lib.verginia.edu/census/>
  12. 12. Chinese Immigration Trends 25000 Number to Chinese 20000 Immigrants 15000 10000 5000 0 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Year Source: US House, 1903 Average Total: 9,143 Chinese Immigrants per year
  13. 13. Expectation of Life at Birth Males Females 1850 38.3 40.5 1855 38.7 40.9 1878-82 41.7 43.5 1890 42.5 44.5 Source: US Dept of Commerce, 1975
  14. 14. Total Fertility Rates (1860-1890) 1860 5.21 1870 4.55 1880 4.24 1861 5.07 1871 4.55 1881 4.28 1862 4.72 1872 4.58 1882 4.25 1863 4.38 1873 4.57 1883 4.29 1864 4.26 1874 4.54 1884 4.29 1865 4.34 1875 4.55 1885 4.23 1866 4.47 1876 4.45 1886 4.11 1867 4.56 1877 4.37 1887 4.06 1868 4.54 1878 4.27 1888 4.06 1869 4.57 1879 4.23 1889 3.99 1890 3.87 Source: Coale & Zelnik, 1963
  15. 15. Recorded Chinese Immigration 1857 4,524 1869 12,874 1858 7,183 1870 15,740 1859 8,215 1871 7,135 1860 6,117 1872 7,788 1861 6,094 1873 20,291 1862 4,174 1874 13,776 1863 5,280 1875 16,437 1864 5,240 1876 22,781 1865 3,702 1877 10,594 1866 1,872 1878 8,992 1867 8,519 1879 9,604 1868 6,707 1880 5,802 Sources: US House, 1903
  16. 16. Asiatic Males and Females Enumerated 1860 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -8000 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 Males Females
  17. 17. Projected 1880 (no migration) 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 Males Females
  18. 18. Enumerated 1880 Census 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 Males Females
  19. 19. Projected 1900 (no migration) 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -16000 -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 Males Females
  20. 20. Projected 1900 (first estimate for net migration) 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -70,000 -60,000 -50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 Males Females
  21. 21. Projected 1900 (second estimate for net migration) 80+ 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 -60,000 -50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 Males Females
  22. 22. Projected Chinese Total Population Total Year No Mig 1st mig 2nd Mig 1860 34,928 34,928 34,928 1870 56,186 56,186 56,186 1880 104,441 104,441 104,441 1900 79,198 327,101 298,639 Males Year No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig 1860 33,144 33,144 33,144 1870 56,186 56,186 56,186 1880 98,968 98,968 98,968 1900 71,611 310,165 284,469 Females Year No Mig 1st Mig 2nd Mig 1860 1,784 1,784 1,784 1870 56,186 56,186 56,186 1880 5,473 5,473 5,473 1900 7,587 16,936 14,170

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