GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1
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GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1

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The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).

The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).

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GBR tourism barometer 2013 Q1 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Tourism Barometer 2013 Q1 Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector January 2013
  • 2. Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 January 2013, among hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;• The survey was anonymous and 198 hotels completed the online questionnaire, of which 163 fully. The distribution of those was as follows: – 49% are city hotels and 51% resort hotels; – 22% are 5*, 32% 4*, 20% 3*, 25% 2* and 1% 1* hotels.• The survey includes forecasts for 2013 Q1 as well as for 2013 as a whole.• Survey results are published in the press and on www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
  • 3. Main Conclusions• The Greek hotel sector is optimistic for 2013 overall, with increasing occupancy levels and stabilising room rates.• However, this optimism does not include the first quarter of 2013, for which stabilising occupancies were forecasted with declining room rates, but apparently hoteliers are expecting improvements beyond Q1.• City hoteliers are expecting improvements in occupancy levels, but decreases in room rates in 2013. Overall RevPAR in 2013 is expected to be on par with 2012.• Also the Athenian hoteliers are predicting that the fall in occupancy and room rates of recent years will more or less bottom out in 2013. They expect stabilising occupancy levels and slightly lower room rates.• The resort hoteliers expect a very good year. Occupancy performance is expected to strongly improve, while room rates are also forecasted to increase, albeit at a lower level than occupancy.• The 5 and 4 star hotel sectors see positive developments with increases in occupancy and room rates levels. The 3 and 2 star segments are more cautious as they forecast stabilising to slightly increasing occupancy rates, but decreases in room rates.
  • 4. How to read the Quarter meters• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page 37% expects The needle shows the stabilisation – overall expectation / between -2% and +2% feeling1 18% expects an 19% expects a increase - decrease – 37% between 2% and 5% 19% between 2% and 5% 18% 19% 7% 19% expects a 7% expects an decrease – increase – more than 5% more than 5%1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
  • 5. Survey resultsExpectations for 2013 Q1• All hotels• City hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels• Resort hotels – Crete hotels• Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  • 6. Expectations for 2013 Q1
  • 7. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 34% 48% 9% 24% 13%The outlook of theGreek hoteliers for the 23% 11% 19% 14%first quarter of the new 5%year of 2013 shows 6CC ARRstabilising occupancylevels compared tosame quarter last yearand falling room rates. «MARKET IN GENERAL»Contrary to what iscustomary, Hoteliers 29% 24% 40%are of the opinion that 8% 12% 17%the market in general 20%will outperform their 19% 21% 11%own hotels, as theyexpect slightly bigger 6CC ARRincreases in occupancyand smaller drops in % of respondents that expectedroom rates comparedto their own hotels. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 1 2 – 5% >5%
  • 8. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 39% 12% 14% 48%The city hoteliersexpect further drops in 17%both occupancy and 25% 30% 5% 8% 3%room rates this quartercompared to same 6CC ARRquarter last year. Theexpected drop inoccupancy will be lessthough than the «MARKET IN GENERAL»expected drop in roomrates. 32% 17% 38% 13%Forecasts for their own 18%hotels are at a similar 26% 26% 11%level as the forecasts 10% 8%for the market in 6CC ARRgeneral. For both, mosthoteliers expect astabilising trend this % of respondents that expectedquarter for bothoccupancy and rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 9. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 17% 48% 18% 50%The Athenian hoteliersremain pessimistic as 21% 25%they expect significant 14% 7%drops in both 6CC ARRoccupancy and ARRfor the first quarter of2013 compared to Q12012. The market in «MARKET IN GENERAL»general shows asimilar trend, where atleast a quarter of the 18% 39% 19% 38%hoteliers expect dropsof 5% or more for both 14% 27% 15%occupancy and room 25% 4%rates. 6CC ARRA large group expectsa stabilising trend for % of respondents that expectedboth their own hotel aswell as for the market Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increaseoverall. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 10. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 19% hotels 13% 19% 7% 43% 7%Hoteliers in 25% 25% 29% 14%Thessaloniki expectstabilising occupancy 6CC ARRlevels and falling roomrates this first quarter.For the market overall «MARKET IN GENERAL»hoteliers are muchmore negative in theirforecast as they predict 31% 50% 6% 7%sharply falling 25%occupancy and room 31% 29% 7%rates. About 38% 6% 7%predicts drops of 2% or 6CC ARRmore in terms ofoccupancy and 36% asimilar level of drops in % of respondents that expectedroom rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 11. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 41% 13% 6% 48%The city hoteliers 35% 19%outside Athens and 28%Thessaloniki expect 6% 3%significant drops in 6CC ARRboth occupancy androom rates, while forthe market in generalthey are more «MARKET IN GENERAL»optimistic withstabilising occupancylevels compared to the 12% 27% 31% 18% 19%same quarter last year, 9%and smaller drops in 24% 18% 25% 16%room rates whencompared to their ownhotels, where 35% 6CC ARRexpects drops inAverage Room Rates % of respondents that expectedof 5% and more. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 12. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 36% 26% 49%Contrary to the city 20% 24% 11%hotels, managers of 4%resort hotels are 10% 11% 9%optimistic for the first 6CC ARRquarter of 2013.They forecast sharpincreases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»levels and stabilisinglevels of room rates. 31% 43% 24%For the market overall 24% 33%they are even a bit 2% 6%more optimistic. 14% 12% 10% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5%
  • 13. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 36% in Crete 83% 26% 24%The hoteliers in Crete 8%are by far the most 8%optimistic of the 6CC ARRbarometer survey ofthis quarter.For their own hotel «MARKET IN GENERAL»units nobody predicteda drop, nor inoccupancy nor in room 46% 50% 25%rates. A vast majorityof 83% expects that 15% 31% 17%their ARR will be at 8% 8%around the same level 6CC ARRas last year’s Q1, butwith soaring occupancylevels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 14. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 5 star hotels 33% 17% 50% 10% 30% 14% 18%The 5 star hoteliershave given a very 10% 11% 7%similar forecast for both 6CC ARRtheir own hotels and forthe market as a whole.They expect sharp «MARKET IN GENERAL»increases in occupancythis first quarter withsimilar room rates as 27% 17% 41%last year’s first quarter. 10% 11% 22% 30%30% expects increases 17% 15% 11%in occupancy levels of5% and more for both 6CC ARRtheir own units as wellas for the market in % of respondents that expectedgeneral. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 15. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 4 star hotels 32% 56% 30% 5% 14%Like the 5 star 11% 16% 16% 11% 8%hoteliers, the 4 starhoteliers are also 6CC ARRoptimistic with smallincreases in occupancyand stabilising roomrate levels. «MARKET IN GENERAL»For the market as awhole they are more 28% 36% 42%optimistic with 11% 19%considerable 3% 18% 14%improvements in 15% 14%occupancy this quartercompared to last year 6CC ARRand stabilising roomrates. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 16. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 3 star 13% 27% hotels 11% 46% 30%Contrary to the 5 and 4 27% 29% 11%star hotels the 3 star 3% 4%hotels are not that 6CC ARRoptimistic for the startof 2013.They expect emptier «MARKET IN GENERAL»hotels this quarter 1compared to last years’Q1 as well as sharp 13% 27% 18% 43%drops in their Average 20%Room Rates. 27% 25% 11% 13% 4%The forecasts of themarket in general are 6CC ARRat a similar level of theforecasts of their own % of respondents that expectedhotel units. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 17. Expectations for 2013 Q1 «MY HOTEL» 2 star 41% 12% hotels 7% 40% 44% 21%The 2 star hoteliers 24%predict mild drops in 7% 4%occupancy levels for 6CC ARRtheir own hotels andsignificant drops intheir room rates thisquarter. An astonishing «MARKET IN GENERAL»44% expects drops of5% and more. 31% 31% 20% 10%For the market overall 9% 14%they are much more 31% 20%positive with 14% 20%improvements inoccupancy levels. 6CC ARRHowever, they alsopredict sharply falling % of respondents that expectedroom rates albeit notas much as for their Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increaseown hotels. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 18. Expectations for 2013 as a whole
  • 19. Survey resultsExpectations for 2013 as a whole• All hotels• City hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels• Resort hotels – Crete hotels• Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  • 20. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» All hotels 24% 34% 43% 21%The Greek hotel sector 12% 11%is optimistic for 2013. 21% 12% 12% 10%Hoteliers are 6CC ARRforecasting increasingoccupancy levels andstabilising room rates. «MARKET IN GENERAL»Forecasts for their own 1hotel units and for themarket as a whole are 32% 41% 23%at a similar level. 19% 13% 12% 24%This optimism is not 13% 14% 10%based though on thefirst quarter of 2013. 6CC ARRApparently hoteliersexpect improvements % of respondents that expectedbeyond Q1. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 21. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» City hotels 26% 44% 30%The city hoteliers are 17% 14% 17%more optimistic for the 16% 16%whole year than for the 12% 9%first quarter of this 6CC ARRyear.They expect mildincreases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»levels and drops up to5% overall in roomrates. 27% 43% 31% 17% 17% 14%The outlook for the 17%market in general is 12% 13% 9%similar to the forecastsof their own hotels. 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 22. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 37% 47%For 2013 as a whole 27% 23% 10% 23%the Athenian hoteliersforecasts to perform at 3% 10% 10% 10%a similar level as 2012, 6CC ARRwhich would mean thatthe continuous fall inrecent years ofoccupancy and room «MARKET IN GENERAL»rate levels hasbottomed out. Theyexpect similar 27% 40%occupancy levels as 27% 30% 23% 13%last year and milddecreases in room 7% 10% 13% 10%rates. 6CC ARRTheir own hotels areexpected to perform on % of respondents that expectedpar with the market asa whole. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 23. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 13% hotels 38% 44% 13% 6% 19%Hoteliers in 19% 19% 19% 13%Thessaloniki expectanother increase this 6CC ARRyear in occupancylevels, while roomrates of their ownhotels are expected to «MARKET IN GENERAL»stabilise. 1For the market overall 44% 19% 50%the room rates are 19% 13% 19%expected to dropslightly. 13% 13% 6% 6% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5%1 >5% 1
  • 24. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 23% 42% 29% 13% 10%Also the other city 23%hotels are following the 19% 19% 16%overall trend of the city 6%hotels: improvements 6CC ARRin occupancy levelsand decreases in roomrates. Thus RevPAR isexpected to be at the «MARKET IN GENERAL»same level as 2012.Forecasts for their own 32% 45% 23% 10%hotel are very similar to 10% 13%the forecasts for the 23% 19%market overall. 16% 10% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 25. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 38% 42% 22% 25%The resort hoteliersexpect a good year. 27% 10% 5% 16% 8% 8%Occupancy 6CC ARRperformance isexpected to improvestrongly for their ownhotel units. They also «MARKET IN GENERAL»expect improvementsin room rates. 39% 24% 32%For the market in 19%general hoteliers are 9% 6% 35% 18%very positive with 8% 9%significantly higheroccupancy and room 6CC ARRrates levels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 26. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 50% in Crete 53% 26% 30%Following an expected 20% 16%strong Q1 of 2013 they 5%also predict a very 6CC ARRgood year overallwhere 80% ofrespondents expectincreases in occupancy «MARKET IN GENERAL»of 2% or more and42% a similar increase 32%in room rates. 40% 42% 40%Similar levels of 15% 21%optimism can be seen 5% 5%in the barometres of 6CC ARRthe market in general. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 27. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 5 star hotels 18% 32% 38% 26%The 5 star hoteliers 18% 29% 15%expect a positive year 15% 3% 6%with strongimprovements in 6CC ARRoccupancy comparedto last year andincreases in room «MARKET IN GENERAL»rates. 1They are not only 36% 39% 12%optimistic for their own 21%hotel units, but also for 15% 30% 21%the 5 star segment as 6% 12% 6%a whole. 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 28. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 4 star 42% hotels 45% 24% 24% 26%The 4 star hoteliers are 18% 8%very optimistic for 6% 2% 4%2013. A vast majority 6CC ARRexpects increases of2% or more for theirown hotels and around42% similar increases «MARKET IN GENERAL»in room rates. 1Also for the 4 star 33% 43% 22%segment overall the 24%hoteliers are very 31% 4% 20% 8%positive for 2013 with 10% 4%increases in bothoccupancy and room 6CC ARRrate levels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 29. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 3 star 35% hotels 13% 52% 10% 29% 10%Contrary to the very 16% 16% 10%positive outlook for 10%2013 of the 5 and 4 6CC ARRstar hoteliers, thehoteliers in the 3 starsegment are morecautious. They expect «MARKET IN GENERAL»stabilising occupancylevels for both theirown hotels as well as 32% 45% 29% 13%for the market overall. 6% 13% 19% 19%In terms of room rates 13% 10%they are predictingdrops in comparison 6CC ARRwith 2012, both fortheir own hotels and for % of respondents that expectedthe market in general. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 30. Expectations for 2013 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 2 star hotels 21% 16% 37% 13% 29% 21%The 2 star segment 18% 18% 21%shows a mixed picture. 5%They expect pressure 6CC ARRon their room rates thisyear, while theiroccupancy is expectedto improve. «MARKET IN GENERAL»The market in general 26% 37%shows a similar pictureas the barometers of 18% 18% 18% 26%their own hotels. 18% 16% 11% 11% 6CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 1 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 1 >5%
  • 31. Tourism Barometer 2013 Q1 ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: gbr@gbrconsulting.gr