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GBR tourism barometer 2012 Q4

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The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).

The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).

Published in Travel
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  • 1. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q4 Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector October 2012
  • 2. Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 19 – 31 October 2012, among hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;• The survey was anonymous and 164 hotels completed the online questionnaire, of which 129 fully. The distribution of those was as follows: – 52% are city hotels and 48% resort hotels; – 27% are 5*, 36% 4*, 21% 3*, 12% 2* and 4% 1* hotels.• The survey includes forecasts for 2012 Q4.• Survey results are published in the press and on www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
  • 3. Main Conclusions• Expectations for the last quarter of 2012 are once more very negative in comparison with same quarter last year for both occupancy levels and room rates. Throughout 2012 the climate was negative in the hotel sector.• Exceptions are the resort hoteliers in Crete, who are very optimistic that occupancy levels will improve much in Q4 compared to last year for their own hotel units. Their room rates are expected to drop though, but overall for the market the trend is stabilising for Q4.• The city hoteliers in Thessaloniki are the second exception. Performance so far this year has been satisfactorily and also for the last quarter they expect slightly better occupancy levels and slightly dropping rates resulting in a stabilising RevPAR.• Athenian hoteliers remain very pessimistic as they forecast significant drops in both occupancy and ARR for both their own hotels as for the market in general.
  • 4. How to read the Quarter meters• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page 37% expects The needle shows the stabilisation – overall expectation / between -2% and +2% feeling1 18% expects an 19% expects a increase - decrease – 37% between 2% and 5% 19% between 2% and 5% 18% 19% 7% 19% expects a 7% expects an decrease – increase – more than 5% more than 5%1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
  • 5. Survey resultsExpectations for 2012 Q4• All hotels• City hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels• Resort hotels – Crete hotels – Dodecanese hotels• Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  • 6. Expectations for 2012 Q4
  • 7. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 17% 26% 26% 40%Forecasts for the last 11% 22% 33%quarter of 2012 are 7%clearly pessimistic. The 12% 5%hotel sector expects #CC ARRsignificant drops inoccupancy as well asroom rates comparedto the last quarter of «MARKET IN GENERAL»2011.In all barometers 50% 23% 26% 31%or more is expecting 25% 38%drops of 2% and more 5% 1%for both occupancy and 30% 10% 5%ARR. Around a third isexpecting significant #CC ARRdecreases of 5% andmore. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 8. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 19% 31% 27%The City hoteliers are 42% 15% 4%very pessimistic for the 7% 36% 13%coming quarter as for 4%their own hotels 55% #CC ARRexpects drops inoccupancy of 2% ormore and 73%forecasts drops of 2% «MARKET IN GENERAL»or more for their roomrates. 30% 34%The expectation for the 25% 45% 34%city hotel market as a 13% 3% 1%whole is even worse. 7% 6%Only 10% expects forthe market increasing #CC ARRoccupancy levels andonly 7% increasing % of respondents that expectedroom rates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 9. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 24% 28% 32% 52%The Athenian hoteliers 36%remain very pessimistic 16%also for the last quarter 8% 4%of this year. Very few #CC ARRexpect increases inoccupancy and roomrates. «MARKET IN GENERAL»For their own hotels60% expects fallingoccupancy compared 32% 32%to same quarter last 28% 48%year and an 32% 16% 4%astonishing 80% 4% 4%expects falling roomrates of 2% or more. A #CC ARRsimilar forecast isdisplayed in the % of respondents that expectedbarometers of themarket in general. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 10. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 33% hotels 13% 47% 20% 13% 20%Contrary to the 27% 13% 7% 7%Athenian hoteliers thesector in Thessaloniki #CC ARRis more optimistic,obviously supported bythe actual results so farthis year. About 73% «MARKET IN GENERAL»expects stabilising orincreasing occupancylevels for Q4 2012 33% 20% 20%compared to Q4 2011 7% 47% 7%for their own hotels. 20% 20% 13% 13%Less optimism for theirroom rates where the #CC ARRbiggest segment (47%)is expecting decreasesof between 2% – 5%. % of respondents that expectedFor the market ingeneral hoteliers are Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%more pessimistic.
  • 11. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 19% 26% 19% 52%The City hoteliers 48% 11%outside Athens & 4% 7%Thessaloniki are 11% 4%extremely pessimistic #CC ARRfor the coming quarteras all barometers fortheir own hotel units aswell as for the market «MARKET IN GENERAL»in general are deeplyred coloured. Thelargest segments in all 33% 59% 30%barometers represent 44%expected decreases of 19% 7%5% or more. 4% 4%Very few hoteliers are #CC ARRoptimistic for nextquarter. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 12. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 15% 26% 20% 38% 30%For the resort hotels 18%that are operating in 31% 7%Q4 46% is expecting 11% 7%drops in their #CC ARRoccupancy levels and58% decreasing roomrates for their ownhotels. «MARKET IN GENERAL»Similarly pessimisticare the hoteliers for the 37% 16% 38% 16%market in general with 8%only 21% expecting 30% 3% 26% 13% 13%increases in occupancyand 16% increases for #CC ARRtheir room rates. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 13. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels in Crete 33% 21% 17% 30% 13% 4%The resort hoteliers in 25% 26% 17% 13%Crete that will operatetheir hotel units in Q4 #CC ARRare optimistic for thecoming quarter interms of occupancydevelopment. In fact «MARKET IN GENERAL»the resort hoteliers inCrete are the mostoptimistic in the Q4 42% 35% 13% 17% 4%survey. On the other 13%hand they expect a 21% 22% 22%drop in their ARR. 13% #CC ARRFor the market ingeneral the trend forQ4 consist of % of respondents that expectedstabilising occupancyand room rates overall. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 14. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels in Dodecanese 18% 55% 27% 55% 9%Contrary to the resort 18% 18%hoteliers in Crete, thehoteliers in the #CC ARRDodecanese areclearly verypessimistic. Theyexpect sharply «MARKET IN GENERAL»dropping occupancyrates and ARRs. 9% 9% 36% 36%Remarkably they are 45% 45%more pessimistic fortheir own hotel units 9% 9%than for the market in #CC ARRgeneral.Very few hoteliers % of respondents that expectedexpect improvementsin comparison with the Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%last quarter of 2011.
  • 15. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» 5 star 31% hotels 20% 32% 9% 41% 18%The 5 star hoteliers 23% 17% 3%forecast that the 6%occupancy levels of #CC ARRtheir own hotel unitsare decreasing slightlyand the levels for themarket in general «MARKET IN GENERAL»substantially.In terms of room rates 26% 29% 31%73% expect 41% 24%substantially lower 26% 6%rates for their own 11% 6%hotels in comparisonwith same period last #CC ARRyear, while for themarket in general 70% % of respondents that expectedis expecting this. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 16. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» 4 star 20% 26% hotels 24% 28% 11% 7%The Q4 barometers of 28% 30% 15% 11%the 4 star hotels showworse occupancy #CC ARRlevels and ARRs thanlast year. Perhaps thedrop in occupancy willnot be as big for the «MARKET IN GENERAL»market as a whole.In terms of room rates 22% 35% 24% 28%drops of more than 2% 7% 4%are forecasted for Q4 28% 22% 15% 15%2012 in comparison tothe same quarter lastyear. #CC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 17. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» 3 star 7% hotels 30% 26% 48% 44% 15%Not many hoteliers are 11% 11%optimistic in the 3 star 7%segment. In fact the #CC ARRmajority (51%) expectsdrops of 2% and morein their occupancylevels and 74% «MARKET IN GENERAL»forecasts drops inARR, of which 48% of5% and more. 15% 26% 30% 48% 44% 19%Similar picture is 7%shown by the 4% 4% 4%barometers of themarket as a whole with #CC ARRrespect to the 3 starsegment. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 18. Expectations for 2012 Q4 «MY HOTEL» 2 star 19% hotels 19% 19% 44% 25% 44%It is striking that for the 19% 13%market in general noneof the hoteliers is #CC ARRexpecting an increasein occupancy nor inroom rates. For theirown hotels only few «MARKET IN GENERAL»would expect someimprovements. 25% 38%Therefore, the overall 38% 38%picture is very negative 38% 25%for the 2 star hotelsegment withsignificant drops #CC ARRforecasted in bothoccupancy and ARR % of respondents that expectedlevels. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  • 19. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q4 ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: gbr@gbrconsulting.gr