Tourism Barometer      2012 Q3  Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector       July 2012
Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 July 2012, among  hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over ...
Main Conclusions• After a difficult first half of this year, hoteliers continue to be pessimistic  for Q3 of this year. As...
How to read the Quarter meters•      All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with       resp...
How to read the Trend graphs                                 100In the green zone, hoteliers                  Very optimis...
Survey resultsExpectations for 2012 Q3     Expectations for 2012 as a whole•   All hotels               •   All hotels•   ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                  «MY HOTEL»      All hotels                  22% ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                 «MY HOTEL»     City hotels                   19% ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                     «MY HOTEL»    Athens hotels                  ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                      «MY HOTEL»    Thessaloniki                  ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                   «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels                   ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                  «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels                  24% ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                           «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels             ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                     «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels                   ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                       «MY HOTEL»        5 star                   ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                 «MY HOTEL»        4 star                         ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                  «MY HOTEL»        3 star                        ...
Expectations for 2012 Q3                                                  «MY HOTEL»        2 star                        ...
Expectations for2012 as a whole
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                     «MY HOTEL»      All hotels           ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                       100                                                ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                  «MY HOTEL»     City hotels              ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                   «MY HOTEL»   Athens hotels             ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                     «MY HOTEL»    Thessaloniki           ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                   «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels           ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                      «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels          ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels                ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                               «MY HOTEL»   Resort hotels  in Dodecanese  ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                              «MY HOTEL»        5 star    ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                      «MY HOTEL»        4 star            ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                    «MY HOTEL»        3 star              ...
Expectations for 2012 as a whole                                                  «MY HOTEL»        2 star        hotels  ...
Tourism Barometer      2012 Q1    ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector   4, Sekeri Street   106 74 Athens   Phone: +30 210...
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GBR tourism barometer 2012 Q3

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The GBR Consulting Barometer is a regular suvey to obtain insights into the Greek hotel industry's opinions current issues as well as expectations about Occupancy (OCC) and Average Room Rate (ARR).

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GBR tourism barometer 2012 Q3

  1. 1. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q3 Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector July 2012
  2. 2. Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 18 – 31 July 2012, among hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;• The survey was anonymous and 175 hotels completed the online questionnaire, of which 135 fully. The distribution of those was as follows: – 43% are city hotels and 57% resort hotels; – 33% are 5*, 29% 4*, 16% 3*, 18% 2* and 3% 1* hotels.• The survey includes results for both 2012 Q3 and for this season as a whole. The results are presented in separate sections.• Survey results are published in the press and on www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
  3. 3. Main Conclusions• After a difficult first half of this year, hoteliers continue to be pessimistic for Q3 of this year. As a result hoteliers are expecting to close the year of 2012 with significant drop in both occupancy and room rates.• Hoteliers have become more pessimistic every quarter of this year. For the market in general they are even more pessimistic as hoteliers overall believe that they will perform better than their market segment.• The most optimistic hoteliers can be found in Thessaloniki and in Crete. Nevertheless, about a third of hoteliers in Crete expect to close the year with drops of 2% or more for occupancy and ARR, while the majority of Thessaloniki hoteliers expect to close the year with more than 5% declines in occupancy and ARR levels, even though they had a relatively good performance in the first two quarters of this year.• Hoteliers in Athens do not expect any recovery and forecast that at year end they will have decreases of more than 5% for both occupancy and ARR.
  4. 4. How to read the Quarter meters• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page 37% expects The needle shows the stabilisation – overall expectation / between -2% and +2% feeling1 18% expects an 19% expects a increase - decrease – 37% between 2% and 5% 19% between 2% and 5% 18% 19% 7% 19% expects a 7% expects an decrease – increase – more than 5% more than 5%1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5% 50.0%
  5. 5. How to read the Trend graphs 100In the green zone, hoteliers Very optimisticare rather optimistic; The marker positionthe more we move into the corresponds to thegreen zone the more position of the arrowoptimistic they become. in the respective Quarter meter.At this point, hoteliers’expectations are 50neutral.In the red zone, hoteliers arerather pessimistic;the more we move into thered zone, the more Very pessimisticpessimistic they become 0 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 my hotel market
  6. 6. Survey resultsExpectations for 2012 Q3 Expectations for 2012 as a whole• All hotels • All hotels• City hotels • City hotels – Athens hotels – Athens hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Thessaloniki hotels – Other city hotels – Other city hotels• Resort hotels • Resort hotels – Crete hotels – Crete hotels – Dodecanese hotels – Dodecanese hotels• Hotels per category • Hotels per category – 5 star hotels – 5 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 4 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 3 star hotels – 2 star hotels – 2 star hotels
  7. 7. Expectations for 2012 Q3
  8. 8. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» All hotels 22% 19% 26%About 60% of the 38% 12% 43% 18%Greek hoteliers expect 9% 10%decreases of more 5%than 2% for Q3 in ΟCC ARRterms of occupancy,while 69% is expectinga similar fall in ARRcompared to same «MARKET IN GENERAL»quarter in 2011. For the 51% 50%market as a wholehoteliers are even 21% 21%more pessimistic. 44% 19% 50% 18% 10% 7%Very few hoteliers 4% 5%expect a substantialimprovement of ΟCC ARRoccupancy levels androom rates for boththeir own hotel and for % of respondents that expectedthe hotel market in Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 49%general. >5% 51% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  9. 9. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» City hotels 19% 19% 32%The city hotel sector is 44% 8% 47% 15%clearly pessimistic for 2% 10%this quarter. Very few 5%hoteliers expect ΟCC ARRimprovements of theoccupancy and ARRs.The majority predicts a «MARKET IN GENERAL»drop in occupancy 49% 49%levels and rates for 16%their own properties, 53% 23%but also for the market 16% 50% 17%overall. 11% 7% 3% 3% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5% 50%
  10. 10. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 65% 58% 32% 25%After a very difficult firsttwo quarters of this 5% 5%year, Athenian 5% 5%hoteliers do not predict ΟCC ARRa recovery for the thirdquarter either. In factthey forecast that thedecline will continue in «MARKET IN GENERAL»Q3 with drops of 5% or 49%more for occupancy as 49%well as room rates. 70% 63% 5% 26%For the hotel sector in 15%Athens as a whole they 10% 5% 5%are more pessimistic. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 49% >5%
  11. 11. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 14% 21% hotels 21% 36% 21% 21%Thessaloniki hoteliers 21% 29% 14%are among the mostpositive for the coming ΟCC ARRquarter. About 58%expects stabilising orincreasing occupancylevels. For their room «MARKET IN GENERAL»rates they are less 0.5 50%optimistic, but still 35% 29%expects stabilising or 7% 21% 14%increasing rates. 21% 14% 29% 36% 14%Remarkably, hoteliers 14%are more optimistic for ΟCC ARRthe room rates of thehotel sector as awhole, although they % of respondents that expectedexpect to outperformthe market in terms of Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increaseoccupancy. >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 51% >5%
  12. 12. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 32% 30%The barometers of the 18% 48% 39%other city hotels are 19% 4%without any exception 7% 4%deeply red coloured, ΟCC ARRreflecting the impact ofthe Greek recessionhad on them . «MARKET IN GENERAL»In comparison to lastyear’s Q3 both 0.5 50%occupancy and room 29% 26%rates are expected to 50% 52%fall with more than 5%. 14% 19% 7% 4%No recovery isexpected and the ΟCC ARRclimate remainsnegative also for thisquarter. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5% 50%
  13. 13. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 24% 18% 22% 20%Resort hoteliers predict 15% 40% 33% 14%that for Q3 theoccupancy and room 10% 5%rates will decline in ΟCC ARRcomparison with Q3last year. A majorityexpects declines ofmore than 2% for their «MARKET IN GENERAL»own properties. 0.5 50% 24% 20%For the market ingeneral they are even 22% 49% 38% 19%more pessimistic 10% 7% 6% 5% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  14. 14. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 23% in Crete 23% 23% 23% 18% 23%The resort hotel sector 18% 23% 14% 14%in Crete is among themost optimistic of all ΟCC ARRregions in Greece.About 64% is expectingstabilising or increasingoccupancy rates this «MARKET IN GENERAL»Q3 and 55% is 0.5 51%expecting a similarperformance for their 18% 27% 14% 18%ARRs compared to Q3 14% 14%last year. 27% 41% 14% 14%For the market in ΟCC ARRgeneral they are lessoptimistic. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 49% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  15. 15. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 50% in Dodecanese 38% 38% 38%There are no hoteliers 13% 23% 13%in the Dodecanese thatexpect for their own ΟCC ARRproperties an increaseof occupancy rates inQ3 2012 compared toQ3 2011. The most «MARKET IN GENERAL»optimistic message 50% 0.5could be that 38% isexpecting stabilising 38% 38%occupancy rates. 44% 25% 31%A similar picture can be 19% 6%noticed in the other ΟCC ARRbarometers: fromstabilising to fallingoccupancy and room % of respondents that expectedrates. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 49% >5%
  16. 16. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» 5 star 19% hotels 23% 27% 17% 23% 21%In terms of occupancy 29% 25%the 5 star hotel sector 10% 6%is expecting a ΟCC ARRstabilising trend for thecoming quarter,although not for themarket as a whole. «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50%In terms of room rates 0.5they predict falling 19% 25% 21% 15%rates for their own 40%hotels as well as for the 17% 15% 38%market in general. 6% 6% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 51% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  17. 17. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» 4 star 14% hotels 24% 27% 45% 44% 20%Very few hoteliers are 7% 5%optimistic for the next 10% 5%quarter. Occupancy ΟCC ARRand ARR are expectedto decline sharply thisquarter compared tosame quarter last year «MARKET IN GENERAL»for both their ownhotels as for the 0.5 51% 21%market as a whole. 17% 59% 48% 17%The majority expects 17% 12%declines of 2% or more 2% 5% 2%for both indicators. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  18. 18. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» 3 star 30% 36% hotels 13% 41% 9% 14%The majority of the 35% 13% 9%hoteliers operating inthe 3 star hotel sector ΟCC ARRare expecting declinesof 2% or more for bothoccupancy and ARR,for both their own «MARKET IN GENERAL»properties and for themarket in general. 0.5 50% 17% 23%About 48% believes 22% 41% 23% 48%that that the decline in 4% 5%occupancy will be more 9% 9%than 5% for the marketas a whole and 41% ΟCC ARRexpects such declinesin ARR this quarter forthe market in general. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 51% >5%
  19. 19. Expectations for 2012 Q3 «MY HOTEL» 2 star 31% hotels 60% 16% 19% 38%The 2 star hotel 24% 4%segment continues to 8%be pessimistic with a ΟCC ARRclear negative outlookfor the next quarter.Very few properties are «MARKET IN GENERAL»expecting 0.5 50%improvements in 31%comparison with same 20% 56%quarter last year. The 23%fast majority expects 38% 24%sharp drops in 4% 4%occupancy and ARRsfor both their own ΟCC ARRhotels as well as for themarket in general. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  20. 20. Expectations for2012 as a whole
  21. 21. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» All hotels 15% 17% 22%It is expected that 2012 49% 46% 20% 13%as a whole will be a 10%year of declining 7% 4%occupancy and room ΟCC ARRrates in comparisonwith 2011.About half of the «MARKET IN GENERAL»hoteliers expect for 51% 49%both indicators drops ofmore than 5% by year 18% 19% 55%end. 53% 15% 17% 7% 7%The difference between 5% 4%the forecasts of theirown hotels and the ΟCC ARRmarket overall isminimal. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 50% >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  22. 22. Expectations for 2012 as a whole 100 Very optimistic All hotels Occupancy 50Expectations on 2012 as awhole have become morepessimistic every quarterof the barometer survey Very pessimistic 0this year. Q1 Q2 Q3 my hotel marketIn Q3 the outlook for this 100year has reached the red Very optimisticzone of the barometer.This is also based on theactual performance of thefirst two quarters of thisyear, which were ARR 50disappointing.Performance is clearlyinfluenced by theuncertain climate overall inGreece. Very pessimistic 0 Q1 Q2 Q3
  23. 23. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» City hotels 12% 22% 59% 14%City hoteliers do not 52% 7% 16%expect any recovery 7%anymore for the 9% 3%remaining 5 months of ΟCC ARRthis year. They expectto close the year withsignificant drops inboth occupancy and «MARKET IN GENERAL»ARR. 51% 50%The forecast of their 59% 17% 21%own hotel is very 52% 17%similar than that of the 12% 5% 7%market overall. 7% 3% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 50% 2 – 5% >5%
  24. 24. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels 72% 56% 39%Conforming to the 11%forecast of the first 11%three quarters of this 6% 6%year, the outlook for ΟCC ARR2012 as a whole is verypessimistic. Hoteliersdo not expect torecover anymore from «MARKET IN GENERAL»the significant drops in 49% 50%occupancy and ARR inthe first two quarters of 78%2012. 56% 39% 17%7 hoteliers out of 10 6% 6%expect occupancydrops of 5% or more ΟCC ARRand 6 out of 10 dropsin ARR of 5% or morefor their own hotels. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 50% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  25. 25. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki 7% 7% hotels 14% 58% 50% 14% 36%Compared to Athens 14%and the other cityhotels in Greece (next ΟCC ARRpage) the hoteliers inThessaloniki are muchmore optimistic toclose the year «MARKET IN GENERAL»positively. Hotels had a 49% 50%good performance in 7% 14%the first two quarters of 7% 7% 29%this year. Nevertheless, 14%they are cautious with 43% 29% 36%their outlook and a 14%substantial part is still ΟCC ARRexpecting to close theyear with drops in bothoccupancy and ARR. % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 50% 2 – 5% >5%
  26. 26. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels 19% 19% 50%Expectations of the 23% 50% 27%hotels outside Athensand Thessaloniki are 8% 4%clearly negative. About ΟCC ARRa quarter of the hotelsexpects stabilisingoccupancy and roomrates, while the fast «MARKET IN GENERAL»majority expect sharp 100%drops. 50% 23% 15%Just a few properties 58% 54%expect a small 19% 23%increase in both 4% 4%indicators. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 49% 2 – 5% >5%
  27. 27. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 17% 21% 19% 23%The resort hotels have 42% 40% 17%forecasted that they will 12%also close the year of 5% 4%2012 with a sharp drop ΟCC ARRin occupancy and ARR.They do expect tooutperform the market «MARKET IN GENERAL»though, but overall 50% 100%drops are expectedcompared to the year 18% 17%of 2011, which was a 52% 17% 55% 17%recovery year for the 9% 7%resort hotels. 4% 5% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 51% >5%
  28. 28. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels 33% in Crete 10% 33% 29% 14% 29%The losses this year in 24% 19%Crete are forecasted to 5% 5%be limited to 2 – 5% ΟCC ARRoverall in terms ofoccupancy and ARR.For the market in «MARKET IN GENERAL»general hoteliers 100% 50%believe though that the 10% 10%drops are significant 19% 14%with 48% of 48% 19% 48% 19%respondents predictingdrops of 5% or more 5% 10%for both indicators. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 49% >5%
  29. 29. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels in Dodecanese 31% 38% 25% 38% 25%Hoteliers in the 25% 6% 13%Dodecanese have nohope anymore for ΟCC ARRrecovery in the last 2quarters of this year.Sharp declines are «MARKET IN GENERAL»expected for 100% 49%occupancy and roomrates for both their own 19% 25%hotel units as well as 38% 44% 25%for the market in 44%general. 6% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 49% >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  30. 30. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 5 star hotels 20% 20% 20% 20% 24% 28%Based on the 28% 24%performance of the first 8% 8%two quarters of 2012 ΟCC ARRhoteliers are predictingthat the year will closewith sharply loweroccupancy and room «MARKET IN GENERAL»rates compared to last 100% 0.5year. 16% 16% 16% 16%With respect to their 44% 16%own hotel properties 44% 8%about half of 8% 8%respondents expectstabilising to improving ΟCC ARRperformance, while theother half expectsdrops, of which the % of respondents that expectedmajority significant Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 100.0% 50%drops. >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  31. 31. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 4 star 19% hotels 19% 29% 38% 19% 29% 38%Besides someoptimism for their 5% 5%occupancy ΟCC ARRdevelopment of theirown hotel units towardsthe end of the year, theother barometers are «MARKET IN GENERAL»coloured red. 100% 0.5Significant drops are 24% 24%expected in 10% 57% 52%comparison to least 14%year’s ARR and 14% 5%occupancy. ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase 100.0% 50% >5% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% >5%
  32. 32. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 3 star 30% 30% hotels 20% 10% 10% 40%Outlook for the 3 star 30% 10% 10%segment is negative as 10%30% is expecting a ΟCC ARRdrop of 5% or more foroccupancy by the endof the year comparedto last year and 40% «MARKET IN GENERAL»expects a similar drop 100% 0.5for ARR comparing thetwo years. 20% 20% 10% 10% 50% 50%About 50% of hoteliers 10% 20%predict drops of 5% 10%and more for bothindicators for the ΟCC ARRmarket in general,resulting in an overallnegative performance % of respondents that expectedoutlook for 2012. Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 2 – 5% 50% >5%
  33. 33. Expectations for 2012 as a whole «MY HOTEL» 2 star hotels 59% 6% 6% 24% 59% 35%All barometers of the 2 12%star hotels are flat inthe negative half. A ΟCC ARRsubstantial majority isexpecting a drop of 5%and more foroccupancy and ARR. «MARKET IN GENERAL» 100% 0.5A similar picture isseen in the barometers 18% 6%of the market in 65% 59% 17%general. 29% 6% ΟCC ARR % of respondents that expected Decrease Decrease Stability Increase Increase >5% 100.0% 2 – 5% -2% - +2% 50% 2 – 5% >5%
  34. 34. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q1 ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: gbr@gbrconsulting.gr

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