Dr. Robert Pepper Presentation IIC Montreal 10 2009
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Dr. Robert Pepper Presentation IIC Montreal 10 2009

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Dr. Pepper's presentation at International Institute of Communications in Montreal.

Dr. Pepper's presentation at International Institute of Communications in Montreal.

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  • Within consumer Internet, the applications mix will shift from being dominated by browsing and Internet applications, to video streaming and downloads, to Internet video delivered directly to an IP set-top. Web browsing and email shrink from 31% of 2005 traffic to 23% of traffic in 2011. By 2011, Internet video will account for 28% of consumer Internet traffic. Starting in 2011, Internet-video-to-TV will generate more traffic than Internet-video-to-PC.
  • Rank Countries 2008 BQS 2009 BQS Delta BQS 1 Korea 38.25 65.99 27.7 2 Lithuania 35.15 54 19.3 3 Bulgaria 31.01 49 17.5 4 Sweden 41.15 57 15.6 5 Latvia 36.29 48 11.8 6 Romania 33.43 44.89 11.5 7 Denmark 34.30 44.89 10.6 8 Taiwan 23.93 34.43 10.5 9 Kenya 4.57 13 8.5 10 Netherlands 37.62 45.59 8.0 11 Czech Republic 30.20 38 7.8 12 United States 29.11 37 7.7 13 Slovakia 30.10 37 7.3 14 Iceland 25.14 32 7.0 15 Hong Kong 26.81 33 6.6 16 Portugal 29.91 37 6.6 17 Hungary 29.98 36 6.1 18 Finland 31.79 37 5.6 19 Norway 32.88 38 5.5 20 Argentina 18.45 24 5.4 21 Ukraine 23.06 28 4.8 22 Estonia 27.71 32 4.8 23 Switzerland 35.38 40 4.5 24 Belgium 30.89 35 4.4 25 Philippines 19.13 23 4.0 26 Austria 29.97 33.90 3.9 27 Russian Federation 32.54 36 3.9 28 Turkey 24.61 28 3.8 29 China 22.09 26 3.8 30 Vietnam 17.18 21 3.7 31 Poland 25.46 28.84 3.4 32 Pakistan 19.01 22.23 3.2 33 France 34.22 37 3.2 34 Tunisia 20.33 23.47 3.1 35 New Zeland 25.51 28.60 3.1 36 United Arab Emirates 20.25 23 3.0 37 Colombia 19.02 22 2.9 38 Qatar 22.15 25 2.7 39 Greece 29.20 32 2.7 40 Slovenia 32.79 35 2.7 41 United Kingdom 28.26 31 2.5 42 Singapore 29.45 32 2.5 43 Canada 29.17 31.34 2.2 44 Malta 24.62 27 2.2 45 Ireland 26.16 28 2.1 46 Malaysia 21.30 23 2.0 47 Thailand 21.59 23.49 1.9 48 Saudi Arabia 21.77 24 1.8 49 Brazil 22.49 24.22 1.7 50 Japan 62.44 63.92 1.5 51 Cyprus 22.55 24 1.3 52 Germany 34.83 36.03 1.2 53 Nigeria 7.37 8.40 1.0 54 South Africa 20.36 21 1.0 55 Costa Rica 23.11 24 0.9 56 Australia 29.11 30 0.9 57 Mexico 22.39 23.10 0.7 58 Indonesia 19.86 20.52 0.7 59 Italy 27.57 28 0.5 60 India 19.96 20 0.5 61 Morocco 21.45 22 0.2 62 Spain 29.12 29 0.1 63 Chile 27.00 26.65 -0.4 64 Egypt 21.52 19 -2.3 65 Luxembourg 29.22 27 -2.6 66 Bahrain 26.37 24 -2.7
  • Rank Countries 2008 BQS 2009 BQS Delta BQS 1 Korea 38.25 65.99 27.7 2 Lithuania 35.15 54 19.3 3 Bulgaria 31.01 49 17.5 4 Sweden 41.15 57 15.6 5 Latvia 36.29 48 11.8 6 Romania 33.43 44.89 11.5 7 Denmark 34.30 44.89 10.6 8 Taiwan 23.93 34.43 10.5 9 Kenya 4.57 13 8.5 10 Netherlands 37.62 45.59 8.0 11 Czech Republic 30.20 38 7.8 12 United States 29.11 37 7.7 13 Slovakia 30.10 37 7.3 14 Iceland 25.14 32 7.0 15 Hong Kong 26.81 33 6.6 16 Portugal 29.91 37 6.6 17 Hungary 29.98 36 6.1 18 Finland 31.79 37 5.6 19 Norway 32.88 38 5.5 20 Argentina 18.45 24 5.4 21 Ukraine 23.06 28 4.8 22 Estonia 27.71 32 4.8 23 Switzerland 35.38 40 4.5 24 Belgium 30.89 35 4.4 25 Philippines 19.13 23 4.0 26 Austria 29.97 33.90 3.9 27 Russian Federation 32.54 36 3.9 28 Turkey 24.61 28 3.8 29 China 22.09 26 3.8 30 Vietnam 17.18 21 3.7 31 Poland 25.46 28.84 3.4 32 Pakistan 19.01 22.23 3.2 33 France 34.22 37 3.2 34 Tunisia 20.33 23.47 3.1 35 New Zeland 25.51 28.60 3.1 36 United Arab Emirates 20.25 23 3.0 37 Colombia 19.02 22 2.9 38 Qatar 22.15 25 2.7 39 Greece 29.20 32 2.7 40 Slovenia 32.79 35 2.7 41 United Kingdom 28.26 31 2.5 42 Singapore 29.45 32 2.5 43 Canada 29.17 31.34 2.2 44 Malta 24.62 27 2.2 45 Ireland 26.16 28 2.1 46 Malaysia 21.30 23 2.0 47 Thailand 21.59 23.49 1.9 48 Saudi Arabia 21.77 24 1.8 49 Brazil 22.49 24.22 1.7 50 Japan 62.44 63.92 1.5 51 Cyprus 22.55 24 1.3 52 Germany 34.83 36.03 1.2 53 Nigeria 7.37 8.40 1.0 54 South Africa 20.36 21 1.0 55 Costa Rica 23.11 24 0.9 56 Australia 29.11 30 0.9 57 Mexico 22.39 23.10 0.7 58 Indonesia 19.86 20.52 0.7 59 Italy 27.57 28 0.5 60 India 19.96 20 0.5 61 Morocco 21.45 22 0.2 62 Spain 29.12 29 0.1 63 Chile 27.00 26.65 -0.4 64 Egypt 21.52 19 -2.3 65 Luxembourg 29.22 27 -2.6 66 Bahrain 26.37 24 -2.7
  • JAPAN KOREA NETHERLANDS DENMARK SWITZERLAND SWEDEN NORWAY AUSTRALIA ICELAND LUXEMBOURG CANADA FINLAND FRANCE US UNITED KINGDOM IRELAND BELGIUM GERMANY SLOVENIA SPAIN AUSTRIA LITHUANIA LATVIA MALTA ITALY PORTUGAL NEW ZEALAND CZECH REPUBLIC ROMANIA HUNGARY GREECE CYPRUS TURKEY BULGARIA SLOVAKIA RUSSIA POLAND ESTONIA MEXICO BRAZIL CHINA INDIA COUNTRY PENETRATION % BQS INDEX Leadership JAPAN 60% 98% 115 KOREA 94% 46% 105 NETHERLANDS 79% 49% 93 DENMARK 80% 43% 91 SWITZERLAND 78% 44% 89 SWEDEN 64% 55% 84 NORWAY 74% 39% 83 AUSTRALIA 74% 30% 80 ICELAND 78% 15% 79 LUXEMBOURG 72% 30% 78 CANADA 71% 31% 77 FINLAND 68% 36% 77 FRANCE 64% 39% 75 US 66% 35% 75 UNITED KINGDOM 65% 32% 72 IRELAND 68% 24% 72 BELGIUM 60% 37% 70 GERMANY 54% 42% 68 SLOVENIA 51% 40% 64 SPAIN 56% 31% 64 AUSTRIA 49% 33% 59 LITHUANIA 39% 43% 58 LATVIA 35% 46% 58 MALTA 54% 19% 57 ITALY 49% 28% 56 PORTUGAL 45% 32% 55 NEW ZEALAND 51% 20% 55 CZECH REPUBLIC 39% 34% 52 ROMANIA 31% 39% 50 HUNGARY 31% 34% 46 GREECE 33% 31% 45 CYPRUS 41% 12% 43 TURKEY 32% 22% 39 BULGARIA 15% 34% 37 SLOVAKIA 19% 32% 37 RUSSIA 10% 35% 36 POLAND 27% 22% 35 ESTONIA 3% 26% 26 MEXICO 18% 12% 21 BRAZIL 15% 13% 20 CHINA 18% 7% 19 INDIA 2% 0% 2

Dr. Robert Pepper Presentation IIC Montreal 10 2009 Dr. Robert Pepper Presentation IIC Montreal 10 2009 Presentation Transcript

  • Towards an Exabyte Broadband World Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy IIC 40 th Annual Meeting 26 October 2009
  • The History of Internet Projections, Part I Analyst projections in 1996 Actuals
  • The History of Internet Projections, Part II Analyst projections in 2001 Actuals
  • Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Growth How often do you upload video you created to a public website? Analyzing Residential, Business and Mobile IP Networking Trends 46% CAGR 2007-2012 Based on Cisco’s methodology and independent analysts’ projections ( VNI Forecast ), WW consumer surveys and feedback ( VNI Pulse ), and global Service Provider network data ( VNI Usage ), Cisco is developing a unique and comprehensive view of IP networking growth and trends worldwide. 0 25,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PB/mo Mobility Business Internet Business IP WAN Consumer Internet Consumer IPTV/CATV
  • The Zettabyte Scale 5 Exabytes A transcript of all words ever spoken 20 Yottabytes A holographic snapshot of the earth’s surface 200 Terabytes A digital library of all books ever written in any language 175 Exabytes The amount of data that will cross the Internet in 2010 alone 150 Exabytes The amount of data that has traversed the Internet since its creation 100 Petabytes The amount of data produced in a single minute by the new particle collider at CERN 100 Exabytes A video recording of the all the meetings that took place last year across the world 66 Zettabytes The amount of visual information conveyed from the eyes to the brain of the entire human race in a single year Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 1 Petabyte 1,000 Terabytes or 250,000 DVDs 1 Exabyte 1,000 Petabytes or 250 million DVDs 1 Zettabyte 1,000 Exabytes or 250 billion DVDs 1 Yottabyte 1,000 Zettabytes or 250 trillion DVDs
  • Global IP Traffic Growth IP traffic will increase 6X from 2007 to 2012 In 2012, half a zettabyte will cross the global network 46% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
  • Global Consumer Internet Traffic Mix Video will be nearly 50% of traffic by 2012 41% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
  • Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth Video will account for 64% of mobile traffic by 2013 131% CAGR 2008 - 2013 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2008-2013 64% 10% 19% 7%
  • Unpredictability of Traffic Growth: An Era of Minority Rule? Source: Cisco, 2008 4 million consumers downloading 2 HD movies per month 50 million consumers watching 50 YouTube videos per month
  • Shift in Peak-to-Average Ratio Source: Cisco Service Control Engine , 2008
  • Dimensions of Broadband
    • Bandwidth—”speed”
    • Latency
    • Jitter
    • Symmetry
    • Bursting
    • Other…
  • Matching Broadband to Applications “Fit for Purpose” Networks Bandwidth Low High High Low Telepresence Voice HD-IPTV Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Gaming (LD) Gaming (HD) Email Download Video Streaming Video
  • Broadband Quality Score A global study of broadband quality September 2009 Sponsored by
  • What the study established in 2008 Changing quality requirements 2000 2005 2010 2015 Broadband Quality TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES
    • Social networking
    • LD video streaming
    • Basic video chatting
    • Small file sharing
    • SD IPTV
    • Visual networking
    • HD video streaming
    • Consumer telepresence
    • Large file sharing
    • HD IPTV
    • Requirements
    • Download 3.75 Mbps
    • Upload 1 Mbps
    • Latency 95ms
    • Requirements
    • Download 11.25Mbps
    • Upload 5Mbps
    • Latency 60ms
    Today Tomorrow
  • Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
    • BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:
      • Download and Upload throughput, and Latency
    • 24 million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008 and May - July 2009
    • Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow ’s (3 to 5 years) applications.
    • BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency
    • BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency
    BQS THRESHOLD CALCULATION
    • BQS threshold: 30
    • Download 3.75 Mbps
    • Upload 1 Mbps
    • Latency 95ms
    • BQS threshold: 50
    • Download 11.25Mbps
    • Upload 5Mbps
    • Latency 60ms
  • BQS by countries 2008 Ready for tomorrow Comfortably enjoying today’s applications Meeting needs of today’s applications Below today’s applications threshold Leapfrog Opportunity
  • BQS by countries 2009 Ready for tomorrow Comfortably enjoying today’s applications Meeting needs of today’s applications Below today’s applications threshold Leapfrog Opportunity
  • Regional improvement of BQS
  • Broadband Leadership - Redefined BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX PENETRATION LEADERS CATCH-UP QUALITY LEADERS LEAP-FROG BROADBAND LEADERS BQS 0 40 60 20 80 100 BQS 0 40 60 20 80 100 Penetration (% Households) 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0%
  • Broadband Leadership Top 20 BROADBAND LEADERSHIP MATRIX (TOP-20)
    • S Korea
    • Japan
    • Hong Kong
    • Sweden
    • Switzerland
    • Netherlands
    • Singapore
    • Luxembourg
    • Denmark
    • Norway
    • Malta
    • Iceland
    • Australia
    • Lithuania
    • United States
    • Ireland
    • Canada
    • France
    • Estonia
    • Belgium
    BROADBAND LEADERS QUALITY LEADERS PENETRATION LEADERS CATCH-UP 100 = BQS actual value 66 N.B. All BQS values have been normalised to a scale of 0 – 100 with 66 = 100
  • Demand/Usage Driving Change
    • User driven demand for video
    • Application, “fit for purpose” driven
      • Differentiated services
      • Not all bits are created equal
    • Implications for networks
      • Fixed and mobile
      • Investment
      • Architecture
    • Managing for differentiation
    • Implications for traditional content industries
  •