Global warming and wild life

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Global warming and wild life

  1. 1. Global Warming and Wild LifeCamille ParmesanIntegrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin
  2. 2. * Global Temperatures are Rising* Plants and Animals are Changing WHEREthey live and WHEN they liveGlobalAverageTemperature
  3. 3. How do we know a biologicalchange is caused by climate?Correlational Patterns– Long-term patterns --- Does biological change match climatetrends in direction and magnitude?– “natural experiments” --- does population respond toextreme weather events and climate years?Field Manipulations of temperature and fitness– impacts on behavior (foraging, mating)– impacts on growth and fecundityLaboratory Experiments– temperature survival thresholds
  4. 4. IPCC 2001: 8 Biological studies in USA
  5. 5. Pew report - USA only• 40 studies total– all would have qualified under IPCC criteria• “Strong evidence” = 21 studies >237 species / functional groupsParmesan & Galbraith 2004
  6. 6. Butterflies wanttheir bodytemperature tobe ~ 100° F
  7. 7. Edith’s Checkerspot butterflyexperiences frequent populationextinctions in undisturbed habitats
  8. 8. Most extinctions in southand at low elevationsgreen = presentpurple = extinctSpecies’ range has shifted northwardand upward during the 20th c.Parmesan 1996
  9. 9. Warming Causes Asynchrony --- Extinctions• 2° C warming causes timing mis-match• Host plants dry up 3-7 days earlier,• caterpillars starve
  10. 10. False Springs Cause Extinctions
  11. 11. Heavy snowpack at high elevations benefitspopulations by delaying flight season to peaksummer heat
  12. 12. Shift in status - at diversity of latitudesVagrants from Africa establish residency in Spain1) Plain tiger (Danaus chrysippus)1980 - 1st resident populations1990s - evidence of manybreeding populations2) Desert orange tip (Colotis evagore)Specialist of hot micro-climateslab - needs 164 °d > 60° Flab - no evolution of hibernationfield & lab - no switch of foodHaeger, Shilap 1999Jordano et al. J. Biogeog. 1991
  13. 13. Shifts in Nationality: Multiple invasionsPurple emperor (Apaturairis)2 independent invasions20 ° E6 0 °N5 8 ° Swe de nFi nl a ndPur pleEmpero r(Apa t ur ai r is)Esto n iaDe n mark1) 1900 - rare Denmark1940s - common Denmark1983 - Sweden (1st record)2) 1991 - Finland from Baltics(1st in 50 years)Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers.Comm.; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982
  14. 14. Texas Has 5 New Species ofTropical Butterflies• Tropical species areactive year-around• No winterhibernation• Killed by freeze
  15. 15. Rufous hummingbird wasmigrant, now residentHill et al. 1998Species have moved into USA fromCentral America & CaribbeanFlorida has new species ofdragonfliesPaulson 2001
  16. 16. The Red fox has shifted its range north,threatening the Arctic foxHersteinsson & Macdonald 1992Baffin Island:went north 600mi / 30 yrs
  17. 17. SpeciesReplacement:AntarcticPenguins• Ice-adapted Adelie– moving poleward• Warm-adapted Chinstrap &Gentoo– Arrived 20-50 years ago Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslieet al. Ant. Science 1998
  18. 18. The toucan and other lowland tropical birds havemoved uphill, threatening high elevation birds.Hydrologyand glaciersSea-Ice Animals Plants Studies coveringlarge areasStudies usingremote sensing
  19. 19. Pikas are Sensitive to Heat•live > 7,500 feet•Must forage> 9 x / daySmith 1974
  20. 20. Low ElevationPopulationsDon’t ForageMid day•Adults killed byheat stress( > 31° C in sun)•Foraging timelimited bytemperatureSmith 19749,000 ftAugust9,000 ftMay12,500 ftAugust
  21. 21. Upward shift ofthe pika• 7 / 25 populationshave gone extinctsince 1930s• Extinctpopulations wereat lowestelevationsBeever et al. 2003 Ice AgeStill present extinct
  22. 22. -- Spring is 2 weeks earlier and Fall is 2 weeks later-- Growing season extended by 3 weeks at high latitudes (wheremoisture available)(Northern Hemisphere temperate zone)
  23. 23. Estimated: More than Half of Wild Species haveResponded to 20th c. Climate Change(>1500 species / species groups)Type of AnalysisChanged aspredicted(n)Changed oppositeto prediction(n)PPhenologicalN = 484 / (678)87 % 13 % < .1 x10-12Distributional changes:At poleward/upper range boundariesAt equatorial/lower range boundariesCommunity (abundance) changes:Cold-adapted speciesWarm-adapted speciesN = 460 / (920)81 %75 %74 %91 %81 %19 %25 %26 %9%19 % < .1 x10-12Meta-analysisRange-boundaries (n=99)Phenologies (n=172)6.1 km-m/decadenorthward/upward shift2.3 d/decade advancement.013< 0.05Diverse species of: trees, herbs, shrubs, reptiles, amphibians, fish, marinezooplankton,marine invertebrates, mammals, birds butterflies(Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003)
  24. 24. Is this a Problem?Sooty copper(Heodes tityrus)Invasion of Estonia1998 - 1st record1999 - breeding populations2002 - increase #populations& northward expansion4 2 °4 0 °20 ° E6 0 °4° EHeode st it yr usFra n c eN5 6 °Swe de nFi nl a ndEs t oniaCa t al oniaSpa i nParmesan et al. 1999
  25. 25. extinctions due to climate changeextinctions due to habitat losshealthy populationsHabitat loss coupled with climate changeEndangeredQuino checkerspot(E. editha quino)
  26. 26. Extinction ofthe Goldentoad inMonteverdeCosta Rica•Cloud forest species require mist•Population crashes followed years withunusually high #dry days, especially > 5dry (mist free) days in a row
  27. 27. Whole Ecosystems can collapse with singleextreme temperature eventCoral Reefsand extremeSea SurfaceTemperatures(SST)
  28. 28. StressStress
  29. 29. Aug 18In 1998, coral bleaching affected every partof the world’s oceans – reefs lost 95% ofcoral in Maldives, Western Australia,Okinawa and Palau.In 1998, coral bleaching affected every partof the world’s oceans – reefs lost 95% ofcoral in Maldives, Western Australia,Okinawa and Palau.Feb16% of living corals wiped off reefs in 1998.16% of living corals wiped off reefs in 1998.
  30. 30. Coral reefs are among the mostbiologically rich ecosystems on earth.4,000 species of fish and 800 species ofreef-building corals described
  31. 31. Global temperature over thepast 65 million yearsPRESENT1,000ya13mya65mya18,000 years230,000 years1 Million years3.5 Million years10 million years6 5 million years10,000 years1,000 years55 million years
  32. 32. Raw data:D. Jordano, L Kaila, J Kullberg, J.J. Lennon, A. Menzel, N. Ryrholm,M.C. Singer,T. Tammaru, J. Tennent, C.D. Thomas, JA Thomas, M Warren* The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland (Asher et al. 2001)* Field Guide to the Butterflies of Britain & Europe (Higgins & Riley 1970)* Atlas of Finnish Macrolepidoptera (Hulden et al. 2000)* The Butterflies of Scandinavia in Nature (Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982)* A World of Butterflies (Schappert 2000)Material and Images:Environmental Sciences Institute, University of TexasUnited Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeKristina Schlegel (artist)Acknowledgements
  33. 33. Shift in Alaskan tundracarbon balance:From sink to source1980s 1990s/2000Prudhoe Bay & Toolik Lake, AKLosing 40 gC/m2/yearOechel et al., Nature 2000First signs of positive feedbacks

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