Decision Timing from Decision Innovation
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Decision Timing from Decision Innovation

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Decision timing is a key factor in getting the most value from your decision making efforts. This presentation addresses some of the common decision traps, biases, and errors associated with ...

Decision timing is a key factor in getting the most value from your decision making efforts. This presentation addresses some of the common decision traps, biases, and errors associated with determining when a decision must be made. Learn more at: http://www.decision-making-solutions.com/business_decision_making.html

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Decision Timing from Decision Innovation Decision Timing from Decision Innovation Presentation Transcript

  • Gary DeGregorio Keith TenBrook © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved.
  •  Gary DeGregorio  Keith Ten Brook ◦ As a career executive with Motorola, Gary worked in the field of business software applied research for over fifteen years with a focus on decision making, decision-based software and collaboration frameworks. With a strong focus on innovation, Gary developed an approach for creating knowledge in the context of a decision framework. ◦ These experiences, coupled with a strong personal vision for leveraging the value of decision tools in both personal and business decision making, led Gary and Keith to build and launch Decision Innovation, Inc. ◦ Keith brings a successful executive business career in leading teams to develop new and innovative products. He built a successful career with Motorola and Northrop Corporation where he leveraged his engineering strengths to lead teams in creating new technologies and products. © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 2
  • “Time plays a role in almost every decision. And some decisions define your attitude about time.” - John Cale (1942 - ), Welsh Musician, Composer, and Singer-songwriter © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 3
  •      Mere seconds for first responders Minutes to choose what to eat Hours to days for a significant purchase Weeks to months for a large investment Months to years for strategic decisions or major life choices When is the decision or resolution needed? © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 4
  • Decreasing benefit or increasing loss Value Increasing knowledge Best Time to Decide Time © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 5
  • Shooting from the hip - plunging in (Russo, Schoemaker, 1990) without adequate information  Planning fallacy - the bias toward underestimating how long actions will take  Primacy effect - the tendency to weigh initial events more than latter events which would promote a quicker decision  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 6
  • Immediate gratification - people tend to prefer immediate payoffs over later payoffs, and this increases as payoffs get closer  Neglect of risk - the inclination to completely disregard probability or risk when making uncertain decisions  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 7
  • Herd instinct - common bias to adopt the views and follow the behaviors of the majority  Shortsighted shortcuts (Russo, Schoemaker, 1990) - relying too heavily on convenient facts or easily obtained information  Reference: Russo, J., & Schoemaker, P. (1990, October). Decision Traps – The Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making & How to Overcome Them. © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 8
  • Analysis paralysis or information bias - the tendency to seek information that can not affect the outcome or being more focused on the process than the result  Procrastination - waiting too long to gather information  Maintaining the status quo or complacency  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 9
  • Recency effect - the mistake of weighting recent events higher than earlier events which could encourage a delayed decision  Normalcy bias - rejecting the need to react or plan for a failure or disaster that has never happened before  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 10
  • Goal is to find the balance between the needed knowledge to choose effectively while minimizing the value lost due to decision delay  Generally, gathering the information that would enable objective evaluation of the alternative solutions can be difficult and costly  Optimum is rarely achieved in practice  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 11
  • Acquiring the internal knowledge (individually or within an organization) that would characterize the success factors or goals for the decision is a minimum that must be achieved to have any hope for making an effective choice  Not obtaining this more easily gathered internal knowledge is like starting a search without determining what you are looking for  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 12
  • Difficult and complex decisions can often lead to large information gathering efforts  Often this is a result of exposing how little is known about possible consequences of decision alternatives  In this case, some effort is needed along a solution path to expose what "we don't know we don't know"  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 13
  • Initiate lower cost exploratory efforts along the paths of solution alternatives where high uncertainty exists  Make the decision and proceed along the preferred solution alternative with checkpoints in place that would force a new decision based on new knowledge  Take actions to reduce the known negative consequences resulting from the decision delay  © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 14
  •  From Bill Jensen's book “Simplicity - The New Competitive Advantage” – 5 questions that, when answered, led to action: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.  How is this [decision] relevant to what I do? What, specifically should I do? How will I be measured, and what are the consequences? What tools and support are available? WIIFM - What’s In It For Me? For us? Question #4 was identified as being the most important, suggesting the increasing need for decision making tools that can help deal with the cognitive overload that results from information that is doubling every three years. © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 15
  • TM Manage Our 4-Step Process: 1.Frame 2.Innovate 3.Decide 4.Manage © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 16
  • See our Business Decision Analysis Services: Fast Framing™ Decision Analysis > Sign up for our free Connected Decisions™ newsletter: Connected Decisions™ Newsletter > Request a Demo or Free trial of our DKC software: Decision Knowledge Center™ Software > © 2009 – 2013 Decision Innovation, Inc. – All Rights Reserved. 17