a100%renewable    future
“When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in linewith a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius ,which would hav...
Things are getting worse!    Global CO2 emission trends?~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007~ 5.9% 2009-2010~ 3.2 ...
The State of Play“To hold the increase in global temperature below2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objectiv...
The ChallengeUK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050EU           60%-80%                  2050Bali         50%         ...
The Challenge“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than aplanned economic recession being compatible withstabilisa...
Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways                                                           AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabil...
… and for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak)                                                            60                 ...
a100%renewable    future
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011          ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011          ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)    ...
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011          ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011          ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)    ...
The Problems All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate  change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give  neg...
And 4oC? Emissions must peak no later than 2020 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative At least it’s ach...
The Downside For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean And an increase on the hottest days of:...
The SituationThere is a widespread view that a 4°C future isincompatible with an organised global communityis likely to be...
Energy Emissions 10% reduction year-on-yearImpossible?Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of globalpopulationIncl...
And Wales?
Wales leading the way“Wales is a definite leader inpromoting sustainabledevelopment”
20              Wales leading the way                                                 ?          Installed capacity of win...
25               Wales leading the way                                                    ?           Installed capacity o...
Wales leading the way                                    ?Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011)      (MW...
a100%renewable    future
dim mwy o nwy
Image and slide creditsSlides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13...
Climate change and renewable energy in Wales
Climate change and renewable energy in Wales
Climate change and renewable energy in Wales
Climate change and renewable energy in Wales
Climate change and renewable energy in Wales
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Climate change and renewable energy in Wales

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Nuclear Free Local Authorities seminar in Cardiff council, 24 October 2012

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Climate change and renewable energy in Wales

  1. 1. a100%renewable future
  2. 2. “When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in linewith a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius ,which would have ……devastating consequences for the planet.”“We have 5 years to change the energy system……or have it changed” Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist
  3. 3. Things are getting worse! Global CO2 emission trends?~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007~ 5.9% 2009-2010~ 3.2 % 2010-2011(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)
  4. 4. The State of Play“To hold the increase in global temperature below2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objectiveconsistent with science” Copenhagen Accord (2009)Committee on Climate Change global budget has56% chance of exceeding 2CUK Government adopts a pathway with a63% chance of exceeding 2C
  5. 5. The ChallengeUK’s target: 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050EU 60%-80% 2050Bali 50% 2050 CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years 2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2°C) It is cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget) This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change - from long term gradual reductions - to urgent & radical reductions
  6. 6. The Challenge“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than aplanned economic recession being compatible withstabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.” Anderson & Bows 2008
  7. 7. Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range 2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peakEmissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e) 80 Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e) Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e) 80 80 Low DL 60 Low DH 60 60 Medium DL Medium DH High DL 40 High DH 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Year Year Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)
  8. 8. … and for energy emissions?(with 2020 peak) 60 2015 peak Medium DL 2015 peak High DL 2015 peak High DH 2020 peak High DL13 of 18 scenarios 50 Emissions of CO2 alone (GtCO2) 2020 peak High DH‘impossible’ 40Even then total 30decarbonisation by 10-20% annual reductions –~2035-45 necessary 20 even for a high probability of exceeding 2°C Globally: no emission 10 space for coal, gas, or shale – even with CCS! 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year
  9. 9. a100%renewable future
  10. 10. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
  11. 11. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C) Peak 2025 Growth 3.5% p.a Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!)
  12. 12. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
  13. 13. Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only)(Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C) Peak ~2010 Reduction ∞% p.a.
  14. 14. The Problems All scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate change use Bio-carbon capture and storage to give negative emissions (geoengineering) Most scenarios showing avoidance of dangerous climate change use a large expansion of nuclear power Assumptions about ‘big’ technology naively optimistic Recent historical emissions massaged Short-term emissions growth seriously downplayed Reduction rate universally dictated by economists Annex 1/Non-Annex 1 split neglected or hidden Senior Government Advisor: “We can’t tell [ministers and politicians that 2oC is] not possible”
  15. 15. And 4oC? Emissions must peak no later than 2020 A 3.5% pa reduction in energy emissions is imperative At least it’s achievable…
  16. 16. The Downside For 4°C global mean surface temperature 5°C - 6°C global land mean And an increase on the hottest days of:  6°C - 8°C in China  8°C - 10°C in Central Europe  10°C -12°C in New York And in low latitudes 4 C gives up to 40% reduction in maize and rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050
  17. 17. The SituationThere is a widespread view that a 4°C future isincompatible with an organised global communityis likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’is devastating to the majority of eco-systemsand has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°Cwould be an interim temperature on the way to a muchhigher equilibrium level).Consequently… 4°C should be avoided at all costs
  18. 18. Energy Emissions 10% reduction year-on-yearImpossible?Approximately 50% of emissions caused by 1% of globalpopulationIncluding *probably* everyone in this roomAnyone who ever sets foot on a planeAnyone in the UK earning over ~£30k
  19. 19. And Wales?
  20. 20. Wales leading the way“Wales is a definite leader inpromoting sustainabledevelopment”
  21. 21. 20 Wales leading the way ? Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar18 (normalised to 2003)161412 England10 Northern Ireland8 Scotland Wales6420 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  22. 22. 25 Wales leading the way ? Installed capacity of wind, wave and solar (partly normalised to 2003)20 South East East Midlands East15 West Midlands London10 North West North East South West5 Yorkshire and the Humber Wales0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  23. 23. Wales leading the way ?Non-renewable installed capacity per capita (2005-2011) (MW per 1000 people)
  24. 24. a100%renewable future
  25. 25. dim mwy o nwy
  26. 26. Image and slide creditsSlides 3, 12 and 28 http://www.flickr.com/photos/primed_minister/2306496568/Slides 4, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16 Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research(with permission)Slide 24 http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/25/jonathon-porritt-wales-is-a-definite-leader-in-promoting-sustainable-development-91466-31898347/Slide 29 http://www.climate-justice-now.org/leave-it-in-the-ground-cop17-illustration/

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