Singapore Property 13 February 2008




BUY                                                                               ...
Singapore Land                                                                                                  13 Februar...
Singapore Land                                                                                                            ...
ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES



SINGAPORE                                   MALAYSIA                             ...
Singapore Land                                                                                       13 February 2009


  ...
Singapore Land                                                                                         13 February 2009


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Singapore                       London                                New York                            Taiwan
Kim Eng S...
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Singland Fy08 130209

  1. 1. Singapore Property 13 February 2008 BUY Singapore Land Look Beyond the Headline FY08 Results Analyst Core earnings within expectations Wilson LIEW SingLand has recorded a loss of $117.4m in FY08, compared to a wilsonliew@kimeng.com staggering net profit of $1.36b the previous year. However, the bottomline (65) 6432 1454 volatility is largely caused by fair value revaluations of its investment properties. On a core earnings basis, its net profit actually rose by 15% yoy to $158.5m due to increased rental and hotel income. A 20 cents final dividend has been declared. Price $3.22 Target $4.44 Fundamentally sound Operationally, SingLand enjoyed a 24%-yoy increment in its gross rental ST Index 1,684.96 income. Its gross revenue from the Pan Pacific Hotel also improved by 47% to $117.4m. We expect SingLand to continue to benefit from positive Historical Chart rental reversions from its office properties, but the negative impact of the economic downturn is likely to hit its hotel earnings. Price ($) Vol ('000) 8.00 7,000 Declining capital values 6,000 7.00 5,000 6.00 SingLand’s portfolio of investment properties experienced an overall 4,000 5.00 6.3%-decline in fair value as compared to June 08. Flagship SingLand 3,000 4.00 2,000 Tower suffered a 10%-decline in its valuation, but Marina Bayfront 3.00 1,000 2.00 0 suffered a steep 25%-drop in value, possibly due to Merrill Lynch’s shift of 07-May-08 12-Mar-08 09-Apr-08 27-Aug-08 19-Nov-08 13-Feb-08 04-Jun-08 02-Jul-08 30-Jul-08 24-Sep-08 22-Oct-08 17-Dec-08 14-Jan-09 11-Feb-09 some of its operations to its new building at Harbourfront. Capital values are likely to decline further, and we expect more fair value losses going forward. Performance 1m 3m 6m Possible mandatory conditional cash offer by UOL Absolute (%) -5.8 -9.6 -48.5 Relative (%) -1.6 -5.8 -14.0 UOL has made a conditional cash offer for UIC, which owns 72.4% of SingLand. Should the offer be unconditional when UOL receives a 50% acceptance for UIC shares, UOL will then make a mandatory conditional cash offer of $3.57 per SingLand share, by virtue of the chain principle. Stock Information However, the offer price is at a steep 60%-discount to our FY09 RNAV. Ticker code SLND.SI Attractive value proposition SL SP We believe that the current share price has more than compensated for Market cap (US$m) 880.4 further fair value losses on its investment properties. We also believe that 52-week high (S$) 7.40 UOL’s bid for UIC is in part motivated by the value they see in SingLand, 52-week low (S$) 2.99 which forms a substantial part of UIC’s NAV. We maintain our BUY Shares issued (m) 412.5 recommendation, with a target price of $4.44 at a 50%-discount to RNAV. 6m avg d.vol (US$m) 0.5 Free float (%) 27.6 Year End Dec 31 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F Major shareholders (%) Sales (S$ m) 271.0 355.3 408.2 414.0 424.2 UIC Enterprise (51.6) Pre-tax (S$ m) 1,689.9 -93.9 234.1 233.6 239.5 UIC Development (20.8) Net profit (S$ m) 1,356.3 -117.4 165.3 163.6 166.4 Core net profit (S$ m) 137.5 158.5 165.3 163.6 166.4 Key Indicators EPS (cents) 328.8 -28.5 40.1 39.7 40.4 ROE (%) 4.2 EPS growth (%) 1251.4 -108.7 -240.7 -1.0 1.7 Net gearing (%) 15.0 PER (x) 1.0 -11.3 8.0 8.1 8.0 NAV @ Dec 08 (S$) 9.44 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 10.1 8.6 8.1 7.7 Interest cover (x) 9.6 Yield (%) 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034 MICA (P): 221/11/2008
  2. 2. Singapore Land 13 February 2009 Figure 1: FY08 results breakdown FY08 FY07 yoy 4Q08 3Q08 4Q07 qoq yoy ($m) ($m) change ($m) ($m) ($m) Change Change Revenue 355.3 271.0 31% 93.3 89.7 82.4 4% 13% PBT -93.9 1,689.9 -106% -319.1 57.1 1,559.3 -659% -120% Net profit -117.4 1,425.1 -108% -258.9 39.8 1,332.9 -750% -119% Net fair value gains -275.9 1,219.8 -123% -299.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A Net profit ex revaluations 158.5 137.5 15% 41.0 39.8 45.3 3% -10% Source: Company data Figure 2: Valuations of SingLand’s investment properties Dec 08 Jun 08 NLA Implied Valuation Valuation Valuation Property ($m) ($m) Change (sq ft) in $psf SingLand Tower 1,340 1,488 -9.9% 618,930 2,165 Clifford Centre 517 562 -8.0% 274,159 1,886 The Gateway 972 1,067 -8.9% 751,359 1,294 ABACUS Plaza 86.2 94 -8.3% 90,385 954 Tampines Plaza 85.4 92 -7.2% 90,385 945 SGX Centre 512 540 -5.2% 277,711 1,844 Marina Square Retail Mall 810 830 -2.4% 735,999 1,101 Marina Bayfront 63 84 -25.0% 77,059 818 Source: Company data Figure 3: RNAV Breakdown NLA (sq ft)/ Market value Description Stake Rooms (S$m) SingLand Tower 100% 618,930 1,116.1 Clifford Centre Office 100% 219,327 271.0 Clifford Centre Retail 100% 54,832 60.4 The Gateway 100% 751,359 836.9 Abacus Plaza 100% 90,385 71.3 Tampines Plaza 100% 90,385 71.3 SGX Centre 2 100% 277,711 365.7 Marina Square - retail 53.10% 735,999 691.5 Marina Square - office 53.10% 77,059 59.5 Pan Pacific Hotel 53.10% 775 rooms 451.2 Total investment properties 3,995.0 Book Value of investment properties 4,406.7 Surplus of investment properties -411.7 Associate Companies Marina Mandarin & Oriental Hotels 26.50% 1,112 rooms 244.6 West Mall 50% 183,828 124.5 Novena Square office 20% 495,300 103.0 Novena Square retail 20% 160,000 31.3 Total associates 503.4 Book value of associates 351.7 Surplus of associates 151.7 PV of developmental profits 28.1 Total surplus ($m) -231.9 Book value of Equity ($m) 3895.8 RNAV ($m) 3,663.9 No. of shares (m) 412.5 RNAV per share $8.88 Premium/(Discount) (50%) Target Price $4.44 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates 2
  3. 3. Singapore Land 13 February 2009 Profit and loss Cashflow YE Dec (S$ m) 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F YE Dec (S$ m) 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Sales 271.0 355.3 408.2 414.0 424.2 Operating cash flow -247.8 159.5 155.3 161.9 117.5 Cost of goods sold 107.8 144.7 163.3 165.6 169.7 Net profit 1,356.3 -117.4 165.3 163.6 166.4 Depreciation & amortisation 8.3 11.4 8.1 8.0 7.9 Gross Profit 163.2 210.6 244.9 248.4 254.5 Change in working capital -367.5 -2.3 -11.2 -2.0 -52.0 Operating expenses 9.3 24.2 28.6 29.0 29.7 Others -1,244.9 267.8 -6.8 -7.7 -4.8 Operating Profit 153.9 186.4 216.4 219.4 224.8 Investment cash flow -100.1 1.4 -16.4 11.6 23.0 Net interest -12.2 -10.2 -16.6 -13.8 -13.3 Net capex -29.2 -32.3 -3.1 -3.0 -2.9 Interest income 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.1 5.0 Change in LT investment -83.0 0.9 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 Interest expense 12.2 10.2 22.6 19.9 18.3 Change in other assets 12.0 32.7 2.7 30.6 41.9 Net investment income/(loss) 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow after invt. -347.9 160.9 138.9 173.6 140.5 Net other non-op. JV+Assoc. 84.7 45.1 22.3 14.8 15.8 Financing cash flow 355.7 -139.7 -134.9 -169.4 -136.3 Net exceptionals 1,463.5 -319.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in share capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax income 1,689.9 -93.9 234.1 233.6 239.5 Net change in debt 514.8 -48.8 -43.2 -78.6 -43.9 Income taxes 265.8 -18.9 35.1 35.0 35.9 Change in other LT liab. -159.1 -90.9 -91.7 -90.8 -92.4 Minority Interest 67.8 42.5 33.7 34.9 37.1 Net cash flow 7.8 21.2 4.0 4.2 4.2 Net profit 1,356.3 -117.4 165.3 163.6 166.4 EBITDA 162.2 194.6 224.5 227.4 232.7 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates EPS basic (Scts) 328.8 -28.5 40.1 39.7 40.4 EPS fully diluted (Scts) 328.8 (28.5) 40.1 39.7 40.4 Key ratios Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates YE Dec (S$ m) 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F Growth (% YoY) Sales 33.5 31.1 14.9 1.4 2.5 OP 30.4 29.1 16.3 1.4 2.5 Balance Sheet EBITDA 40.0 20.0 15.3 1.3 2.3 NP 1251.4 -108.7 -240.7 -1.0 1.7 YE Dec (S$ m) 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F EPS 1251.4 -108.7 -240.7 -1.0 1.7 Total assets 5,967.9 5,734.9 5,740.2 5,743.4 5,817.6 Profitability (%) Current assets 431.0 482.6 485.6 473.8 533.0 Gross margin 60.2 59.3 60.0 60.0 60.0 Cash and bank balances 25.7 46.8 50.8 55.0 59.2 Operating margin 56.8 52.5 53.0 53.0 53.0 Accounts receivable 14.1 11.0 24.2 27.2 28.2 EBITDA margin 59.8 54.8 55.0 54.9 54.9 Others 391.3 424.8 410.6 391.6 445.5 Net Profit margin 500.5 -33.1 40.5 39.5 39.2 Other assets 5,536.8 5,252.3 5,254.6 5,269.6 5,284.6 ROA 22.7 -2.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 LT investments 12.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 ROE 33.1 -3.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 Associates 336.6 351.7 367.7 383.7 399.7 Stability Investment properties 4,703.0 4,406.7 4,406.7 4,406.7 4,406.7 Gross debt/equity (%) 18.0 17.7 16.2 14.0 12.6 Others 485.2 481.8 465.2 461.2 457.2 Net debt/equity (%) 17.4 16.5 15.0 12.6 11.2 Total liabilities 1,874.9 1,839.2 1,761.7 1,683.8 1,674.0 Int. coverage (X) 12.6 18.3 9.6 11.0 12.3 Current liabilities 349.9 350.7 319.9 267.4 236.7 Int. & ST debt coverage (X) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 Creditors & accruals 64.5 80.0 62.0 43.0 44.0 Cash flow int. coverage (X) -20.3 15.7 6.9 8.1 6.4 ST borrowings 259.5 236.8 222.8 189.3 155.8 Cash flow int. & ST debt (X) -0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 Others 26.0 33.9 35.1 35.0 36.9 Current ratio (X) 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.3 Long-term liabilities 1,524.9 1,488.4 1,441.7 1,416.4 1,437.2 Quick ratio (X) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 Long-term debts 479.0 452.9 423.7 378.6 368.2 Net debt (S$m) 712.8 642.9 595.7 512.9 464.8 Others 1,045.9 1,035.5 1,018.0 1,037.8 1,069.0 Per share data (Scts) Shareholder's equity 4,093.0 3,895.8 3,978.6 4,059.7 4,143.6 EPS basic 328.8 -28.5 40.1 39.7 40.4 Paid-in capital 840.3 840.3 840.3 840.3 840.3 EPS fully diluted 328.8 -28.5 40.1 39.7 40.4 Reserve 3,252.6 3,055.4 3,138.2 3,219.3 3,303.3 CFPS -60.1 38.7 37.7 39.3 28.5 Net tangible asset 4,093.0 3,895.8 3,978.6 4,059.7 4,143.6 BVPS 992 944 965 984 1,005 SPS 65.7 86.1 99.0 100.4 102.8 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates EBITDA/share 39.3 47.2 54.4 55.1 56.4 DPS 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates 3
  4. 4. ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES SINGAPORE MALAYSIA TAIWAN Stephanie WONG Head of Research YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research Gary CHIA Regional Head of Institutional Research Co-Head of Greater China +603 2141 1555 cheeyoon@kimengkl.com +65 6432 1451 swong@kimeng.com Strategy +886 2 3518 7900 gary.chia@yuanta.com Strategy Banks Ti-sheng YOUNG Co-Head of Greater China Small & Mid Caps Telcos Gregory YAP Property +852 2973 6988 ti-sheng.young@yuanta.com +65 6432 1450 gyap@kimeng.com Conglomerates & others Kevin CHANG Head of Regional Tech Strategy Conglomerates LIEW Mee Kien Technology & Manufacturing +603 2141 1555 meekien@kimengkl.com +886 2 3518 7901 kevin.chang@yuanta.com Transport & Telcos Gaming John BREBECK Head of Taiwan Strategy Rohan SUPPIAH Media +65 6432 1455 rohan@kimeng.com Power +886 2 3518 7906 john.brebeck@yuanta.com Airlines Construction Vincent CHEN Head of Downstream Tech Marine & Offshore Research Team Pauline LEE +603 2141 1555 +886 2 3518 7903 +65 6432 1453 paulinelee@kimeng.com Oil & Gas vincent.chen@yuanta.com Bank & Finance Food & Beverage Jack CHANG Head of Non-Tech & Cyclical Consumer Manufacturing Retail Plantations +886 2 3518 7905 jack.chang@yuanta.com Wilson LIEW Tobacco Teyi KUNG, Ph.D +65 6432 1454 wilsonliew@kimeng.com Technology +886 2 3518 7921 teyi.kung@yuanta.com Hotel & Resort Healthcare Property & Construction Celia WANG INDONESIA Anni KUM +886 2 3518 7925 celia.wang@yuanta.com Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research +65 6432 1470 annikum@kimeng.com Financial +6221 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id Industrials Jeff PU Consumer REITs +886 2 3518 7936 jeff.pu@yuanta.com Infra James KOH TFT-LCD Shipping +65 6432 1431 jameskoh@kimeng.com Strategy Infrastructure THAILAND Telcos Resources Others David BELLER David LOOMIS Ricardo SILAEN +662 658 6300 x 4740 david.b@kimeng.co.th +65 6432 1417 dloomis@kimeng.com +6221 2557 1126 rsilaen@kimeng.co.id Banks Special Situations Auto Shipping Energy Naphat CHANTARASEREKUL KELIVE Singapore Heavy Equipment +662 658 6300 x 4770 naphat.c@kimeng.co.th ONG Seng Yeow Head of Research Property Energy +65 6432 1832 ongsengyeow@kimeng.com Resources Piya ORANRIKSUPHAK TAN Chin Poh Teguh SUNYOTO +662 658 6300 x 4710 piya.O@kimeng.co.th +65 6432 1859 chinpoh@kimeng.com +6221 2557 1127 tsunyoto@kimeng.co.id Property GOH Han Peng Cement Supattra KHONGRUNGPHAKORN +65 6432 1857 gohhanpeng@kimeng.com Construction +662 6586300 ext 4800 supattra.k@kimeng.co.th Ken TAI Pharmaceutical Electronics +65 6432 1412 kentai@kimeng.com Retail Automotive Adi N. WICAKSONO Tourism +6221 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id Kanchan KHANIJOU HONG KONG / CHINA Generalist + 662 658 6300 x 4750 kanchan@kimeng.co.th Edward FUNG Head of Research Arwani PRANADJAYA Construction +852 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk +6221 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id Power Technical analyst KELIVE Thailand (for retail clients) Construction George HUEBSCH Head of Research Ivan CHEUNG PHILIPPINES +852 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk +662 658 6300 ext 1400 george.h@kimeng.co.th Ed BANCOD Head of Research Property Ivan LI +63 2 849 8848 ed_bancod@atr.com.ph VIETNAM +852 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk Strategy LE Huy Hoang Head of Research Bank & Finance Banking +84 838 38 66 36 x 160 hoang.le@kimeng.com.vn Larry GRACE Laura DY-LIACCO Strategy +852 2268 0630 larrygrace@kimeng.com.hk +63 2 849 8843 laura_dyliacco@atr.com.ph Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Oil & Gas Utilities +84 838 38 66 36 x 163 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn Energy Conglomerates Pharmaceutical TAM Tsz Wang Lovell SARREAL Confectionary and Beverage +852 2268 0636 tamtszwang@kimeng.com.hk +63 2 849 8871 lovell_sarreal@atr.com.ph Oil and Gas Small Caps Consumer Ngo Bich Van Emily LEE Cement +84 838 38 66 36 x 164 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn +852 2268 0631 emilylee@kimeng.com.hk Media Bank Small Caps Robin SARMIENTO Insurance Jacqueline KO +63 2 849 8831 robin_sarmiento@atr.com.ph Ngo Thuc Vu +852 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk Ports +84 838 38 66 36 x 167 vu.ngo@kimeng.com.vn Food & Beverage Mining Fisheries Ricardo PUIG Power +63 2 849 8846 ricardo_puig@atr.com.ph INDIA Nguyen Doan Quang Property Jigar SHAH Head of Research +84 838 38 66 36 x 168 quang.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn Telcos +91 22 6623 2601 jshah@kimeng.com Port and Logistics Oil & Gas Transportation REGIONAL Transportation Luz LORENZO Economist Anubhav GUPTA +91 22 6623 2605 agupta@kimeng.com +63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph Property Economics Capital goods Urmil SHAH +91 22 6623 2606 urmil@kimeng.co.in Software Telecom Recommendation definitions Media Our recommendation is based on the Ankit THAKKAR +91 22 6623 2606 ankit@kimeng.co.in following expected price Healthcare performance within 12 months: Consumer goods +15% and above: BUY -15% to +15%: HOLD -15% or worse: SELL 4
  5. 5. Singapore Land 13 February 2009 APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (quot;KERquot;) or a related entity to KER (as the case may be) who are institutional investors (for the purposes of both the Singapore Securities and Futures Act (“SFA”) and the Singapore Financial Advisers Act (“FAA”)) and who are allowed access thereto (each an quot;Authorised Personquot;) and is subject to the terms and disclaimers below. IF YOU ARE NOT AN AUTHORISED PERSON OR DO NOT AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS AND DISCLAIMERS SET OUT BELOW, YOU SHOULD DISREGARD THIS REPORT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND LET KER OR ITS RELATED ENTITY (AS RELEVANT) KNOW THAT YOU NO LONGER WISH TO RECEIVE SUCH REPORTS. This report provides information and opinions as reference resource only. 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Readers should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial adviser before making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation to the securities mentioned in this report. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives and should be confirmed by such investor with his advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied). You agree that any and all use of this report which you make, is solely at your own risk and without any recourse whatsoever to KER, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees. You understand that you are using this report AT YOUR OWN RISK. This report is being disseminated to or allowed access by Authorised Persons in their respective jurisdictions by the Kim Eng affiliated entity/entities operating and carrying on business as a securities dealer or financial adviser in that jurisdiction (collectively or individually, as the context requires, quot;Kim Engquot;) which has, vis-à-vis a relevant Authorised Person, approved of, and is solely responsible in that jurisdiction for, the contents of this publication in that jurisdiction. Kim Eng, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned in this report, and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this report. Derivatives may be issued by Kim Eng its related companies or associated/affiliated persons. Kim Eng and its related and affiliated companies are involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this report. 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  6. 6. Singapore Land 13 February 2009 Additional information on mentioned securities is available on request. Jurisdiction Specific Additional Disclaimers: THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PRESS OR OTHER MEDIA, AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANY MALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN MALAYSIA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Singapore. As of 13 February 2009, Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in Singapore Land. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. © 2009 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. 6
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