Tendências hotelaria mundial
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Tendências hotelaria mundial Tendências hotelaria mundial Presentation Transcript

  • Trends
in
the
International

Hospitality
Industry
Russell
Kett
Managing
Director
–
HVS
London
 ‐
1
‐

  • AGENDA
Economic
Highlights
 Tourism
Trends
Performance
Data
Investment
Trends
 Hotel
Values
 ‐
2
‐

  • ECONOMIC
HIGHLIGHTS
 ‐
3
‐

  • Real
GDP
Growth
Forecast
 by
Region
Middle
East
and
Northern
Africa
 Latin
America
and
Caribbean
 Europe
and
Central
Asia
 East
Asia
and
Pacific
 US
 Japan
 Euro
Area
 2011F
 OECD
Countries
 2010
 ‐8%
 ‐6%
 ‐4%
 ‐2%
 0%
 2%
 4%
 6%
 8%
 10%
 2009
 Source: World Bank ‐
4
‐

  • Contribution
of
Travel
&
Tourism
 ‐
World
‐
 T
&
T
contributes
 10‐year
 2010
 Trend
 to...
 (%)
 trend
 (%)
 Gross
Domestic
 9.1
 9.6
 Product
 Employment
 8.8
 9.7
 Visitor
Exports
 (5.8)
 4.7
 Investment
 4.5
 4.6
Source: WTTC ‐
5
‐

  • TOURISM
TRENDS
 ‐
6
‐

  • International
Arrivals
(millions)
600
500
400
 Europe
300
 Asia
and
the
Pacific
 Americas
 Africa
200
 Middle
East
100
 0
 1990
 1995
 2000
 2005
 2008
 2009
 2010
 Source: UNWTO ‐
7
‐

  • Change
in
International
Arrivals
09/10
(%)
16%
14%
12%
10%
 8%
 6%
 4%
 2%
 0%
 Middle
East
 Asia
and
the
 Africa
 Americas
 Europe
 Pacific
 Source: UNWTO ‐
8
‐

  • Top
Ten
Tourism
Destinations
(millions)
90
80
 France
70
 US
 China
60
 Spain
50
 Italy
 UK
40
 Turkey
30
 Germany
 Malaysia
20
 Mexico
10
 0
 2006
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 Source: UNWTO ‐
9
‐

  • International
Arrivals
Breakdown
(2010)
 Europe
 Asia
and
the
Pacific
 Oceania
 South
Asia
 6%
 5%
 Northern
 Europe
 12%
 Southern/
 Medit
Europe
 36%
 Western
 South‐East
 North‐East
 Europe
 Asia
 Asia
 Central/
 32%
 34%
 55%
 Eastern
 Europe
 20%
 Americas
 Africa
 South
Central
 America
America
 16%
 5%
 North
Africa
 38%
 Caribbean
 13%
 Subsaharan
 North
 Africa
 America
 62%
 66%
 Source: WTO ‐
10
‐

  • International
Arrivals
by
Region
of
Origin
 (millions)
600
500
400
 Europe
 Asia
and
the
Pacific
300
 Americas
 Africa
200
 Middle
East
100
 0
 1990
 1995
 2000
 2005
 2008
 2009
 2010
 Source: WTO ‐
11
‐

  • International
Tourism
Receipts
 (US$
billion) 
500
450
400
350
300
 Europe
250
 Asia
and
the
Pacific
 Americas
200
 Africa
150
 Middle
East
100
 50
 0
 2006
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 Source: UNWTO ‐
12
‐

  • International
Tourism
Expenditure
 
(US$
billion)
100
 90
 80
 Germany
 70
 United
States
 China
 60
 United
Kingdom
 50
 France
 40
 Canada
 Japan
 30
 Italy
 20
 Russian
Federation
 Australia
 10
 0
 2006
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 Source: UNWTO ‐
13
‐

  • Global
Supply
&
Demand
Source: STR Global ‐
14
‐

  • PERFORMANCE
DATA
 ‐
15
‐

  • Occupancy
 ADR
($)
75%
 170
 160
70%
 150
 140
65%
 Europe
 130
 Asia
Pacific
 120
60%
 Middle
East/Africa
 110
 Americas
55%
 100
 90
50%
 80
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 2007
 2008
 2009
 2010
 RevPAR
Variance
 Americas
 Middle
East/Africa
 09/10
 08/09
 Asia
Pacific
 07/08
 Europe
 ‐30%
 ‐20%
 ‐10%
 0%
 10%
 20%
 30%
 Source: STR Global ‐
16
‐

  • RevPAR
Growth
09/10
 12.0%
 10.0%
 8.0%
 Americas
Δ
Occupancy
 Asia
Pacific
 6.0%
 4.0%
 Middle
East/Africa
 2.0%
 Europe
 0.0%
 ‐2.0%
 ‐4%
 ‐2%
 0%
 2%
 4%
 6%
 8%
 10%
 12%
 14%
 Δ
ADR
 ‐
17
‐

  • Year‐to‐July
Occupancy
66%
64%
62%
60%
58%
 Jul‐10
56%
 Jul‐11
54%
52%
50%
 Europe
 Asia
Pacific
 Middle
East/ Americas
 Africa
 Source: STR Global ‐
18
‐

  • Year‐to‐July
ADR
($)
140
120
100
 80
 60
 Jul‐10
 Jul‐11
 40
 20
 0
 Europe
 Asia
Pacific
 Middle
East/ Americas
 Africa
 Source: STR Global ‐
19
‐

  • Year‐to‐July
RevPAR
Variance
 Americas
Middle
East/Africa
 10/11
 Asia
Pacific
 Europe
 ‐15%
 ‐10%
 ‐5%
 0%
 5%
 10%
 Source: STR Global ‐
20
‐

  • INVESTMENT
TRENDS
 ‐
21
‐

  • Hotel
Investments
2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels ‐
22
‐

  • Global
Hotel
Transactions
Volumes
 1998
–
2011F
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels ‐
23
‐

  • Investors’
Profiles
(2010)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels ‐
24
‐

  • Pipeline
–
July
2011
 (Number
of
Rooms)
 39%
of
Asia/ Middle
East/Africa
 Pacific
 125,268
 growth
is
in
 China
London
has
 Asia/Pacific
306,537
the
greatest
 Europe
130,260
number
of
rooms
under
construction
in
Europe
 Central/South
 Caribbean/Mexico
 America
27,457
 18,709
 Source: STR Global ‐
25
‐

  • HOTEL
VALUES
 ‐
26
‐

  • Hotel
Values
per
Room
(US$)

 Top
15
Markets
–
2010
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
 0
 Source: HVS ‐
27
‐

  • Value
per
Room
–
Europe
 400,000
Average
Value
per
Room
(US$)
 350,000
 300,000
 250,000
 200,000
 150,000
 100,000
 50,000
 0
 Source: HVS ‐
28
‐

  • Value
per
Room
–
Asia
 
600,000

Hotel
Values
per
Room
(US$)
 
500,000

 
400,000

 
300,000

 
200,000

 
100,000

 
‐



 Source: HVS ‐
29
‐

  • Value
per
Room
–
USA
 160,000
Average
Value
per
Room
(US$)
 140,000
 120,000
 100,000
 80,000
 60,000
 40,000
 20,000
 0
 Source: HVS ‐
30
‐

  • Thank
you...
 Russell
Kett
 HVS
–
London
Office
 rkett@hvs.com

 @russellkett
September
2011
 ‐
31
‐
 www.hvs.com