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Economia global Economia global Presentation Transcript

  • SAHIC 2011 Santiago, Chile - September 2011 Global Shocks & Economic Outlook Latin America in Context Pablo F.G. Bréard Vice-President & Head of International ResearchGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Outlook ► The IMF View “The global economy is in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing” World Economic Outlook Report, September 20, 2011Global Economic Research
  • The Shifting Global Landscape • Global Economic Rebalancing / Softness • Europe/US/Japan Debt (Un)Sustainability • Fiscal Consolidation & (De)Leveraging • Erratic Governance / Intervention INXS • Financial Market Volatility / Contagion • (Dis)Orderly Currency Adjustments • Credit Risk (Re)pricing / Ratings ShiftsGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Rebalancing Latin America in ContextGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Rebalancing ► The New G10 GDP size (US$ billion) in PPP terms 2011-12 (e) 19.3% 15,000 13,500 Americas 14.6% 12,000 Europe 10,500 Asia 9,000 7,500 6,000 5.6% 5.8% 4,500 3.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3% 3,000 2.3% 2.8% 1,500 UK USA India Italy Russia Germany China France Brazil Japan Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2011)Global Economic Research
  • Neo G10 ► Growth, Inflation & Debt Dynamics Consumer Price Inflation % Change (2011-12e) 10 9.4 Global Growth > Emerging Market Strength Global Inflation > Emerging Markets under Pressure 8.0 8.4 8 6.8 Real GDP % Change (2011-12e) 8 Developed 6.0 6 Developed 6 4.8 Developing (BRIC) 4.7 Developing 4 (BRIC) 3.8 3.3 4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.2 2 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.9 0 0 Germany USA Italy Japan UK China Brazil India Russia France Italy Germany Brazil India Spain France Russia China USA Japan UK General Government Borrowing Needs % GDP (2011-12e) 0 240 231 Public Sector Gross Debt % GDP (2011-12e) Fiscal Outlook > Deep Adjustments under Way Debt Sustainability > Credit Risk Repricing 220 (1.3) 200 (2) (1.9) (1.6) 180 (2.5) Developed 160 (4) 140 (3.9) Developing 120 120 (BRIC) 101 (6) 100 85 89 (5.5) 80 (5.9) 80 65 66 68 Developed 60 (8) (7.8) (7.7) Developing 40 17 (BRIC) 20 9 (10) (9.2) (9.2) 0 USA Italy India France Russia China Japan UK Spain Brazil Germany Germany USA Italy Spain Japan UK China Brazil India Russia FranceGlobal Economic Research
  • Foreign Capital Flows ► Emerging Markets in Fashion 1300 Source: Institute of International Finance - June 2011 1200 1100 500 1000 Foreign Direct Investment 900 Portfolio Investment 371 423 435 Multilaterals 800 Bank Lending US$ billion 700 Bond Issuance 600 357 500 171 508 400 201 300 154 200 102 138 143 100 118 0 -100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012fGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Stocks ► Emerging Market OutPerformance Global Equity 5Y % Return USD % Return since March 2009 25% WORLD 67 20% 15% North America 68 10% Europe 5% European Union 71 Asia 0% -5% Americas-10%-15%-20% Developing Asia 104-25%-30% BRIC 109-35%-40% Developing Americas 120-45%-50% Developing 135 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Europe 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 USD-adjusted Total Return (%)Global Economic Research
  • LATAM Equities ► Favourable Trend / Correction? Country Index Return (5-yr) % L/C Return since March 2009 Peru IGBVL 195%125% Argentina MERVAL 186%100%75% Venezuela IBVC 168%50% Mexico IPC 107%25% Colombia IGBC 80% 0% Peru IGBVL Mexico IPC-25% Colombia IGBC Chile IPSA 71% Chile IPSA Brazil BOVESPA-50% Brazil BOVESPA 55% Sep-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Jan-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200%Global Economic Research
  • Global Recovery Dynamics Latin America in ContextGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Growth ► Gradual, Soft & Uneven Recovery Economic Zone 1999-08 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f North America 2.6 (2.9) 3.2 1.9 2.2 2.4 (2.6) 3.0 1.7 2.1 Euro Zone 1.9 (4.2) 1.7 1.6 1.2 Japan 1.4 (5.2) 4.0 0.3 3.0 Developing Asia 7.7 5.6 9.4 7.8 8.0 10.1 9.1 10.4 9.3 9.5 Developing Europe 5.3 (5.2) 4.6 4.5 3.9 Latin America (ex Mex) 3.3 (0.1) 6.2 4.0 4.1 3.1 (0.2) 7.5 3.6 4.0Global Economic Research
  • Americas ► North-South Growth Divergence 5.9 6.0 5.6 10-year average Real GDP (annual % growth rate) 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.6 2011 - 12 (e) 4.5 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Mexico Argentina USA Canada Chile Venezuela Peru Brazil ColombiaGlobal Economic Research
  • US Growth View ► Modest & Uneven Recovery 4 4 3.5 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 Real GDP % change (%) 2 2.2 2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 -0.5 -0.5 -1 -1 -1.5 Year/Year -1.5 -2 Year/Year (annualized) -2 -2.5 Quarter/Quarter (annualized) -2.5 -3 -3 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Global Economic Research
  • Global Monetary Outlook ► Ongoing Monetary Stimulus 1.25 2.5 Fed Funds UK repo rate 2.25 Fut Mar 2012 Fut Mar 2012 1 2 Fut Jun 2012 Fut Jun 2012 1.75 0.75 1.5 1.25 0.5 1 0.25 0.75 0.5 0 0.25 Aug-11 Apr-11 May-11 Aug-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-10 Mar-11 Sep-10 Feb-11 Nov-10 May-11 Dec-10 Jun-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-10 Mar-11 Sep-10 Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 2.5 2.5 Euribor 2.25 2.25 Fut Mar 2012 2 2 Fut Jun 2012 1.75 1.75 1.5 Canada O/N 1.5 Fut Mar 2012 1.25 Fut Jun 2012 1.25 1 1 0.75 0.75 0.5 0.5 Aug-11 Apr-11 May-11Global Economic Research Aug-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-10 Mar-11 May-11 Sep-10 Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-10 Mar-11 Sep-10 Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10
  • Americas ► Regional Inflation Convergence ? 30 27.0 Consumer Price Inflation (y/y rate %) 10-year average 25 2011 - 12 (e) 20.0 20 15 10 6.0 5 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.3 2.4 0 Mexico Argentina USA Canada Chile Venezuela Peru Brazil ColombiaGlobal Economic Research
  • LATAM Interest Rates ► Gradual Easing in Sight? 14 US Brazil Mexico 12 Chile 12.00 Peru Colombia 10 Annual % Change 8 6 5.25 4.25 4 2 0 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Sep-07 Jun-08 Sep-08 Jun-09 Sep-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Global Economic Research
  • Global Currency Adjustments Latin America in ContextGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Research
  • Global FX Volatility ► USD weakness in Focus EUR vs. USD (2005-2010) USD % loss since 06 Jun 20101.60 1.59 CHF 321.56 AUD 241.521.48 JPY1.44 EUR1.40 1.37 GBP1.361.31 CAD 7.31.271.23 CNY Americas1.19 1.20 BRL Asia/Oceania Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 RUB Europe/Africa 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Global Economic Research
  • Bilateral Deficit by Major Partner US $ billion -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04Global Economic Research Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Japan Mexico Europe Canada Aug-07 China Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 US Trade (im)Balance ► China Connection Apr-11
  • FX Outlook 2011-12 ► LATAM in Global Context 2010 2011 2012 EUR/USD 1.34 1.45 1.40 USD/JPY 81 80 85 USD/GBP 1.56 1.63 1.70 USD/CAD 1.00 0.96 0.94 USD/CNY 6.61 6.25 5.88 USD/MXN 12.3 12.3 12.5 USD/CLP 468 485 495 USD/PEN 2.81 2.76 2.70 USD/COP 1,908 1,850 1,900 USD/BRL 1.66 1.70 1.75Global Economic Research
  • FX Reserves ► Fast & Steady Accumulation 700 Colombia Peru 600 Chile Argentina 500 Venezuela Mexico US $ billion Brazil 400 300 200 100 Brazil accounts for over 50% of the region’s FX Reserves 0 Sep-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Global Economic Research
  • LATAM Currency Market ► Appreciating Bias? FX % change vs USD (5-yr) FX % change (1-20 Sep 2011)50% Peruvian -0.5% Sol (PEN)40%30% Colombian -4.5% 23% Peso (COP)20%10% Chilean -5.9% Peso (CLP) 0% MXN Mexican-10% BRL -6.5% PEN -15% Peso (MXN)-20% CLP COP Brazilian-30% -11.3% Real (BRL) Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%Global Economic Research
  • Global Economic Research
  • Global Risk Repricing Latin America in ContextGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Research
  • US (Treasury Debt vs Mortgage) Market Rates (10-year History) 7.08 5.19 6.78 4.86 6.48 4.53 6.18 4.21 5.88 3.88 3.55 5.58 3.22 5.28 2.89 4.98 2.57 4.68 UST (10-year yield) 2.24 Mortgage (30-year rate) 4.38 4.09 1.91 4.08 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 1.92 “The Federal Reserve’s Acquisition of long- term Treasury securities boosted the prices of such securities and caused long-term Treasury yields to be lower than they would have been otherwise” Ben Bernanke, July 13, 2011Global Economic Research
  • European Fiscal/Debt Shock ► Market Metrics Europe PIGS Bond Yields Europe PIIGS CDS24 3536 Germany 23 3,400 Greece22 3,200 Spain Portugal20 3,000 Portugal 2,800 Ireland18 Ireland 2,600 Spain16 Greece 2,400 Italy 2,20014 2,00012 1,800 1,60010 1,400 8 1,200 1,000 6 5.4 800 4 600 400 2 200 0 0 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Sep-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11Global Economic Research
  • European Debt Crisis ► Latin America in Context Central Government Debt Credit Default Risk Metrics Chile 140 Mexico 120 Colombia PIIGS% Of GDP (2011-12 e) LATAM Brazil LATAM 100 Peru PIIGS Argentina 80 Venezuela 60 Spain 40 Italy Ireland 20 Portugal 0 Greece Ireland Colombia Argentina Italy Brazil Mexico Chile Portugal Spain Peru Venezuela Greece 500 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Basis PointsGlobal Economic Research
  • European Debt Crisis ► Latin America in Context Current Account Balance Government Fiscal Balance 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 (1.0) (1.0) 2011-12 Government Net Borrowing (% GDP) ( 1.2 ) 2011-12 Current Account Balance (% GDP) - 1.5 -1.5 (2.0) (2.0) - 2 .1 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 (3.0) ( 2 .7 ) (3.0) -2.9 - 3 .1 -3.4 (4.0) (4.0) ( 3 .9 ) (5.0) ( 4 .7 ) (5.0) LATAM ( 5 .0 ) LATAM (6.0) (6.0) (7.0) PIIGS (7.0) ( 6 .8 ) ( 6 .6 ) PIIGS ( 7 .3 ) (8.0) (8.0) (9.0) (9.0) ( 9 .1) (10.0) (10.0) ( 10 .0 ) Spain Italy Chile Colombia Brazil Portugal Ireland Mexico Peru Greece Spain Brazil Portugal Italy Peru Chile Ireland Colombia Mexico GreeceGlobal Economic Research
  • Global Economic Research
  • Merci Gracias Obrigado Thank YouGlobal Economic Research