Beyond 2020:
Shaping the Preferred Future
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What Is Your Image
Of The Future?
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Top Ten
Risks to Insurance Industry
1. Climate change
2. Demographic shifts
3. Catastrophic events
4. Emerging markets
5. Regulatory intervention
6. Channel distribution
7. Integration of technology
8. Securities markets
9. Legal risk
10. Geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks
from Insurance Journal, March 2008
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Top Global Risks
Davos 2009
The financial crisis
1.
Slowing growth in China - below six
2.
percent in 2009
The collapse of asset prices
3.
Resource challenges - concerns over
4.
\"climate change-related weather events,
declining water quality and availability, as
well as energy”
Global governance
5.
from Insurance Journal, January 2009
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IDC Top Ten
Trends for Insurance Industry
1. Fewer, larger companies – new shape
2. ERM becomes critical competency
3. Regulation globalized, rationalized, homogenized
4. Customer service one of top three investments
5. Process improvement with flat IT spending
6. Being informed key cornerstone
7. Demographic waves
8. Insurers get social networking
9. Fewer core Admin. Tech providers
10. Innovation blooms in strapped environment
from Financial-Insights.com Jan. 21, 2009
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Ernst & Young
Property/Casualty Outlook 2009
1. Redirect focus on premium pricing – reductions
likely
2. Monitor claims inflation risk
3. Prepare for changes in regulatory oversight, toward
centralization
4. Prepare for changes in accounting requirements
5. Address effective expense control
6. Rethink risk modeling
7. Watch for new M&A activity
from Ernst & Young, Global Insurance Center, January 2009
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Lesson 1:
The future creates the present….
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EXPLORE CUSTOMER RESPONSE
MACRO TRENDS AFFECTING CARRIERS
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 MONTHS
Risk of insurance fraud due to economic downturn
Increase in online insurance shoppers
Eroding credit scores & continued use for rating
Increasing risk from hurricanes & \"100 year events\"
More sophisticated satellite imagery
Telematics - increased use in cars
Changing weather patterns - more severe weather events
Increase in number of senior drivers
Growing number of immigrants
Growth of social networking tools
Increasing risk of terrorist attacks
Increasing risk of pandemics
On Off ©

Lesson 2:
Future Not a Mystery
Old and Young, Diverse and Gone

 Global Weirding
 AORTA Technology
 Knowledge Value Economics &
Politics
 Creating the Future
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Lesson 3: People Will Change
-40
0
2
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-74 no
6 …
s
5
ial
ow n
…n len
il
s
er M
m
oo
B
ls…
nao
iti
d
ra 75+
T Post
ow
n Generation X Millennial …
…now 40-55 now 1-20
2020 ©

Age Wave In Action
MALE FEMALE
Millions of People
665 Days until the first Boomer turns 65
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27 Florida’s by 2025
States where at least 20% of
The population will be elderly
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Shopping
 Evaluating
Communicating Gaming

Sharing Learning

Buying & Selling Searching

Analyzing
Exchanging

Growing up
Creating

Evolving
Meeting

Dating

Collecting

Coordinating

Digital Natives & Digital Immigrants
Marc Prensky originated “digital native” term and this list
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©

What if population stops growing?
World Fertility Patterns
Canada 1.6
US 2.07
Mexico 2.1
Italy 1.3
Japan 1.4
Germany 1.4
China 1.7
Iran 2.1
India 2.8
©

Ride the Population Waves
Minorities, now 1/3rd the U.S. population, are expected to

become the majority in 2042.
Between 2007 and 2030, the number of Washington

workers over 55 years old will increase by 600% percent;
those aged 16 to 54 will increase by 16%.
Retire, retool, or rehire – making use of older workers’

skills at all levels
Digital Natives are ready for and expect far more

digitization of work processes
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Lesson 4: Energy and Environment
Tipping Points are changing everything
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa 2008
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http://www.usgcrp.gov/
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©

2008 IEA World Energy Outlook
50 mbd additional output needed by 2020
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ECO-EMBEDDED Products
“Carbon Zero” credit card
Insurance Products: Green home, commercial, auto,
usage-based rates
Trendwatching.com
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Lesson 5: AORTA Technology Rules
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A Bit of Intelligence
Desk Top circa 2001
= Cell Phone
circa 2008
= Implant
circa 2025?
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UCSD: PC of 2015
One Hundred Million Pixels
Connected at 10Gbps
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A Survey from TrendWatching®
Trendwatching.com
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People formerly known as
consumers
It’s only just begun
Based on Trendwatching.com
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www.whereisitgoing.com
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Nanotechnology
Not just small things, but things with different
properties because of nanoscale
©

Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004
©
NanoSolar.com

Nanobatteries
Altairnano
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Lesson 6: Knowledge Value Economy
Rapid
Debt
Innovation
Drag
Technology
Convergence
It’s what Global
Product or Learning
Service Competition
Knows
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Three Future Questions
What is

Probable?
 What is
Possible?
 What is
Preferred?
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Paradigm: The way we do things around here
We should move From… We should move To…
 
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Some Industry Opportunities
Accounting for Demographic Changes Sooner:

Aging & Minority Customers (& workforce)

Digital Natives

Environmental Risk Management:

Many organizations lack a bird’s eye view of their exposure to the

threats they face and their cumulative liabilities. – The Economist
Technology:

Location Intelligence

Hard-to-extract data being stored on legacy systems

Economics& Politics:

Re-thinking credit score relation to insurability

Fraud risks in hard times

Selling into frugality

©

The future is
something
we do.
The future is not
something that just
Glen Hiemstra
happens to us. Futurist.com
©