Demographics, Aging and Our Future

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This presentation was made on February 18, 2009 to a conference on Aging, held in Savannah, Georgia, and aimed at the community of people in Coastal Georgia concerned with the issue. The material drew from an earlier conference on Aging held in Atlanta, which you can see at www.slideshare/ghiemstra/slideshows or in Favorites at Futuristspeaker. Follow Glen at www.futurist.com/blog and at www.twitter.com/glenhiemstra

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Demographics, Aging and Our Future

  1. 1. ©
  2. 2. Learning from from the Future Discontinuous Change   The Aging Story   Japan as Bellweather   Key Challenges   Livable Communities   Long term Care   Economic & Fiscal Issues   Social Security and the   Safety Net ©
  3. 3. What Is Your Image Of The Future? ©
  4. 4. Of all the 65 year olds who ever lived, 2/3 are alive today A Discontinuous Change ©
  5. 5. Age Wave In Action MALE FEMALE 681 Days until the first Boomer turns 65 ©
  6. 6. Life Expectancy at Birth in the United States Years Men Women ©
  7. 7. Over 65 in Georgia 8th fastest growing right now ©
  8. 8. Young & Old in Georgia Percent 19 and under #19 in U.S. Percent 65 and over #42 in U.S. ©
  9. 9. 27 Florida’s by 2025 States where at least 20% of The population will be elderly ©
  10. 10. Generations 2025 Post Generation X Millennial … …now 45-60 now 1-19 ©
  11. 11. Tomorrow’s Aged are Different Chronic conditions     Educated & tech savvy   Greater gaps in wealth   Achievement oriented & adventurous   Men moving inward, women moving outward   Women travel alone or without husband, reverse not true ©
  12. 12. Estimated Health Status Elderly in Georgia Year Total Pop. Require Cost per IADL person Assistance 2005 852,000 60,833 $10,983 2025 1,668,000 119,095 $58,732 Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/ specialreport/20051005.pdf ©
  13. 13. ©
  14. 14. Mathews & Turnbull 2007 ©
  15. 15. Working… In 1950 half of 70-   year old men worked full time.   Today in Atlanta region 67% of people over 55 are not working at all. ARC 2006 Survey report ©
  16. 16. Time Online, 7-29.2002 ©
  17. 17. © Grand Circle Travel photo
  18. 18. Traveling… Right now, 88% of 55   and older persons drive their own cars 20% of those over 65   not longer drive in U.S. 57 % expect “to be   driven” in the future 13% expect to use   transit ARC 2006 Survey report ©
  19. 19. Living… As in rest of country   about 75% of seniors plan to live in their current home “as long as possible.” ARC 2006 Survey report ©
  20. 20. We Are Not Alone ©
  21. 21. Age Wave In Japan ©
  22. 22. Japan’s Population Pyramid ©
  23. 23. Japan’s Elder Care   87% cared for in Family 43% daughters or daughters-in-law     7% sons or sons-in-law   37% spouses   13% have hired caretakers, other kinds of help, or no caretaker. Source: Japanese Women Now ©
  24. 24. Japan’s Social Expenditures 1970s, social expenditures 6% of   Japan’s national income.   1992 up to18%.   2025 predicted 27% 70% of the social-welfare budget goes   to programs for the aged   4% for services to children Sources: Statistical Handbook of Japan and AsiaTimes Online ©
  25. 25. Japan’s Economic Solutions Employers are keeping the elderly   working longer Modify jobs to suit the elderly (e.g. more   lighting, fewer physical barriers) Utilize their knowledge and skills   Companies are creating products for the   elderly Accessible cars   Care-bots   Families are expected to provide care   ©
  26. 26. What Age Wave Means Here ©
  27. 27. ©
  28. 28. 1950 Average New Home 980 square feet for 3.4 people ©
  29. 29. Today’s Average New Home 2600 square feet for 2.6 people ©
  30. 30. 5,000 Sq. Ft. Homes ©
  31. 31. Ultimate Age Wave Question…   Increasingly, 65-somethings will be facing large homes with dark bedrooms, lots of yard work, and a rusting basketball hoop over the garage. How many graying boomers will actually live in those 5000sf McMansions? Will you? But who else can afford them? ©
  32. 32. Need to Age the Home 1st Floor Master   Rocker switches   Dual Suites Lower, even adjustable     counters Wide hall ways   Ramps, slopes   Decrease size &   Contrasting Steps   cost by one-half Multi-family   going forward Apartments added   from 2009 – but Co-housing   how? ©
  33. 33. Infrastructure Needs Sign and document readability     Public transportation / walkability   Retrofitting homes for better accessibility   Re-zoning   Small home options   Complete communities Source: Duluth Weekly, September 10, 2007 ©
  34. 34. Long Term Care Programs for in-home care   Georgia among lowest in nation for Medicaid   spent on in-home care 40% of Georgia’s elderly live in rural areas   Compare to 5% in Massachusetts, 12% in   Colorado Most of Georgia’s long-term care services   are in urban areas Source: Stateline.org, September 14, 2007 ©
  35. 35. Aging and Mental Health In Georgia, the elderly account for 20% of all   suicides, especially among white males Less than 3% of elderly receive treatment   from mental health professionals Depression may be linked to other chronic   conditions like cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, obesity, and heart disease. Source: Georgia.gov, DHR ©
  36. 36. Caregivers 4.7 potential care givers (Age 20-64) for   each person over 65 in 2005 3.0 potential caregivers for each person 65+   in 2025 Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/ specialreport/20051005.pdf ©
  37. 37. Asimo ©
  38. 38. Are we ready for aged workforce? Manpower, Inc.: 28,000 employers 25 countries:   14% have strategies to recruit older (over 50) workers   21% have strategies to retain older workers   Boston College study U.S. companies:   37% have strategies to retain older workers   9% have made detailed projections about their aging   workforce Most older workers say 9-5, 5-day week does not   work for them ©
  39. 39. Impact on Taxes & Spending Less income   Beyond the spending wave   Tax exemptions   ©
  40. 40. Coming Final Debate Over Social Security (& Health Care) Solvent without changes till 2040 if U.S.   does not default Safe at 75% of current benefits beyond   2040 with no changes. Options for full benefits past 2040 include   raising retirement age, increasing tax about 1.5%, increasing income subject to tax, changing formulas for slower benefit growth ©
  41. 41. Learning from from the Future Discontinuous Change   The Aging Story   Japan as Bellweather   Key Challenges   Livable Communities   Long term Care   Economic & Fiscal Issues   Social Security and the   Safety Net ©
  42. 42. Is Aging Just Beginning? Medicine of Today and the Future Today   Diagnostics—”pauciparameter”   Therapy--reactive   Prevention--minor role   Future   Diagnostics--multiparameter   Therapy--diagnostics-driven and personalized   Prevention--dominant role   Extend productive life span by 10-20 years over next 30 years Dr. Leroy Hood, Inst. Systems Biology ©
  43. 43. Mid-21st Century Folk Song Happy Birthday Dear Granny     Happy Birthday Dear Granny   Happy One Hundred and Twenty Birthdays, Dear Granny   Happy Birthday To You ©

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