Welcome and introduction to the
ESRC’s Future of the UK and Scotland
programme of activities
• PHIL SOOBEN
• Director of P...
The current state of the debate
CURRENT POLITICAL STRATEGIES
• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY
• Future of the UK and Scotland R...
Scotland’s
Referendum: Political
Strategies
Charlie Jeffery
University of Edinburgh
www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk
Political Strategies
• How the two sides are approaching the
referendum
– The ‘big picture’
– The economic implications
The big picture strategy
Should Scotland be an
independent country? Yes/No
A binary choice superimposed
on a three-way spl...
What should the Scottish Parliament do?
2013 data, Scottish Social Attitudes
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independen...
The Median Voter
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independence)
31%
UK Government decides on defence and
foreign affairs...
Yes: What kind of independence?
• Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence
with partnership’
– Doing some things ...
Yes: What kind of independence?
• Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence
with partnership’
– Doing some things ...
Yes: What kind of independence?
• Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence
with partnership’
– Doing some things ...
Yes: What kind of independence?
• Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence
with partnership’
– Doing some things ...
The Median Voter
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independence)
31%
UK Government decides on defence and
foreign affairs...
The UK Govt No:
the Scotland Analysis Series
• Feb 2013 to May 2014
• 14 papers, ~ 1,500 pages
– Several on economy, plus ...
Until
• Currency Union debate February 2014
• Formal sterling currency union ruled out
– By Scotland Analysis paper
– By p...
Why?
• A set of beliefs at the UK level about what
‘independence’ means (see EU debate)
• A pre-negotiating stance? [The S...
The Median Voter
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independence)
31%
UK Government decides on defence and
foreign affairs...
The Other Part: When No Means More …
• Proposals for further-reaching devolution if
Scotland votes No from pro-union parti...
The Median Voter
Make all decisions for Scotland
(= independence)
31%
UK Government decides on defence and
foreign affairs...
The Economy
• Voters’ views of the economic consequences
of independence are the best predictors of Yes
or No voting
The Economy (aka the £500 question)
“Say it was clear that if Scotland became an
independent country (separate from the re...
£500
2013 £500 Better
off
No change £500 Worse
off
% % %
In favour of
independence 52 34 15
Neither 12 9 16
Against
indepe...
Last Week …
• UK Govt paper: Scots £1,400 better off in
union
• Scottish Govt paper: Scots £1,000 better off
with independ...
The current state of the debate
THE DEBATE AROUND DEFENCE
• DR COLIN FLEMING
• ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Chan...
Dr Colin Fleming
Scottish Centre on Constitutional
Change
The Defence Debate
• Small States vs Large States
• What Scotland Wants?
• NATO and Trident?
• Defence Relationship with t...
The current state of the debate
THE EU MEMBERSHIP DEBATE
• PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING
• Director, Scottish Centre on Consti...
The current state of the debate
• PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY
• DR COLIN FLEMING
• PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING
What business thinks
UNCERTAINTIES FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY
• ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow in the Scotl...
THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE:
EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS
Future of the UK and Scotland
12.30pm – 3.30pm, Wednesday 4 June ...
What risks and opportunities does the independence
referendum pose for businesses in Scotland? Are
businesses planning for...
THE SAMPLE
THE SAMPLE
By Sector No. %
Financial Services (life insurance, retail, wealth
management) 20 33
Energy (incl. Hydro and Oi...
COMPANY PROFILE
36
By Size No. %
Large 32 53
Medium (2XS/M) 28 47
Total 60 100
Primary
Trade/Customers
No. %
Scotland 6 10...
THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY
Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government,
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics...
ARE THERE RISKS?
RISKS
Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas...
RISKS
“It’s perceived risk around stability.
And I guess there’s a number of
subsets of that, so one of them is
fiscal…iss...
WHAT ABOUT
OPPORTUNITIES?
Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas)
Key ...
OPPORTUNITIES
“[Reducing] Import/export
legislation. Taxation associated
with cross border trade.
Regulation of the busine...
AND CONTINGENCY
PLANNING?
Industry
Financial
Services
Life
Sciences
Electronics/
Technology
Engineering/
Ind. Manuf.
Energy (incl.
oil and gas)
Cont...
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
“None at all, as I say, I can only
see positives if Scotland were to
gain its independence. And I thi...
WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN
WE DRAW FROM THE
SAMPLE?
DRAWING CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE SAMPLE …
Uncertainty poses a challenge for business leaders;
The risks expressed by busines...
DRAWING CONCLUSIONS
FROM THE SAMPLE…
Companies whose trade is mainly in the rUK
(typically 90%, with 10% in Scotland) app...
SUMMARY
“But this isn’t a complex or complicated debate for us. It’s really very
straightforward. We have 3 categories of stakehol...
FIRM BEHAVIOUR?
Business behaviour will be driven by protecting:
 Customers
 Ability to sell products/services (location...
THE SCENARIO MATRIX
INDEPENDENCE
HEAVY
(HIGH TRANSITION
COSTS)
DEVO MINOR
INDEPENDENCE
LITE
(MODEST TRANSITION
COSTS)
DEVO...
THE SCOTTISH PRIVATE
SECTOR IN THE TRANSITION?
Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government,
http://...
@UKScotland
#indyrefbusiness
futureukandscotland.ac.uk
What business thinks
SURVEY EVIDENCE ON BUSINESS AND
INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES TO CONSTITUTIONAL
CHANGE
• PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
...
The Independence Debate: Views from Business
PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
DIVISION OF ECONOMICS
STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
UNIVERS...
Business Attitudes to the Independence Debate
• Economy is vital to the referendum outcome
• University of Stirling has ca...
How important is the following factor in deciding how you
are going to vote …
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percent
How t...
Exploring business attitudes: surveys of Scottish Chambers
of Commerce members in June 2013 and Feb 2014
0
50
100
150
200
...
Where does your company mainly trade?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mainly
Scotland
Mainly rUK Mainly
Europe
Mainly RoW
Number...
Share of firms viewing each issue as ‘important’ or ‘very
important’ in relation to independence
Growing concerns in the b...
Main concerns for firms by main trading area ….
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Income Tax
Rates
Corporation
t...
Opportunities with independence …
shareoffirms
Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014
Scottish Government
Risks with independence …
shareoffirms
Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014
More firms take the view that there are
‘No opport...
Risks with independence by main trading area …
38%
27%
8% 8% 9% 10%
39%
15%
7%
4%
23%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40...
Opportunities – business views
– ‘More Scottish appropriate policies which will lead to a closer
identification with a Sco...
Risks – business views
– ‘Higher taxation, greater investment risk.’
– ‘Antagonisms currently being generated that seems t...
Evidence of negative effects on trade – “the border effect”
• Border effect - trade is much higher within countries than a...
Final thoughts …
• Large scale surveys suggest that businesses believe that risks associated
with independence outweigh op...
What business thinks
• PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY
• PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
Scottish independence: what the
public thinks
PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND SCOTLAND'S
INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM
• PROFESSOR JOHN CUR...
Public Attitudes and the
Referendum
John Curtice
whatscotlandthinks.org
@whatscotsthink
Two Questions
• Who is ahead?
• What matters most to voters?
The Referendum Race
38 39 39 41 43 43
62 61 61 59 57 57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Feb-May 13 July-Sept.
13
Oct-Dec. 13 Jan-mi...
House Differences
45 45 44
41 40
38
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Panelbase ICM Survation TNS BMRB YouGov (Ipsos MORI)
%Y...
Partly A Question of Identity
67
46
16
9 7
18
39
71
81
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sc not Br More Sc than
Br
Equal...
But Identity Largely Unchanging (and
Dual)
24 23 24 23 22 24
30 27 28 26 25 24
33
33 33 34 33 34
4
5 5 7
6 6
7 9 8 8
9 9
0...
Economy Matters More
87
2
62
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Better Worse
% Yes
Economy
Equality
Source: ICM Research ...
And Tracks Ref VI Better
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sept Jan Feb Mar Apr May
No Lead Net Economy Net Equality
Source: ...
Summary
• The No lead narrowed in the winter – but has
remained stable (at the lower level) in the
spring. Still differenc...
Scottish independence: what the
public thinks
THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION IN PUBLIC
OPINION
• PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY
• ESRC Sco...
Citizen Preferences for Constitutional
Change in Scotland
David Bell, Liam Delaney and
Michael McGoldrick
Stirling Managem...
Overview
• Scottish Independence Referendum
• Behavioural Economics
• Processing of Risk particularly Economic Risk
• Risk...
• Designed by Research Team
• Administered by Yougov in December 2013
• 2037 Respondents
• Follow-up from Scottish Electio...
Likelihood of Voting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Percentageofeachsetofvoters
Certainty o...
Constitutional Options
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Scotland in the UK
with no increase in
powers
Scotland in the UK
with in...
Attitudes and Voting
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally ...
Temporal Attitudes
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Are you generally an impatient person, or...
Risk Attitudes and Voting
3% 2%
4%
5%
7%
17% 16%
20%
16%
3%
8%
6%
4%
5%
8% 8%
21%
18% 17%
9%
1%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0...
Risk Attitudes and Voting
Factors in Voting Intention
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Importance of Scotland's National...
Factors in Voting Intention
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Importance of pension entitle...
Economic Voting
70%
4%
5%
3% 3% 3% 4%
8%
63%
1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
8%
27%
3%
5%
7%
10%
7%
4%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7...
Economic Voting
17%
24%
13% 14% 14%
18%
3%
7%
12%
20%
26%
32%
7%
15%
20%
28%
20%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Less th...
• Higher risk willingness substantially increases support for
Independence
• Females less supportive of Independence
• Tho...
• Salience
• Priming of risk
• Framing of risk
• Risk and Ambiguity
• Risk and Benefit “Overload”
• Endowment Effects
Furt...
Scottish independence: what the public thinks
• PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE
• PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY
Scotland and the Rest of the UK
BRITISH ELECTION STUDY: FIRST FINDINGS ON
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES IN SCOTLAND, WALES,
ENGLAN...
Constitutional issues in Scotland, Wales and England
Professor Jane Green, University of Manchester
BES2015 data collection - wave 1
• 20,881 person online sample fielded by YouGov
• 4,139 respondents in Scotland
• 2,256 r...
Scottish constitutional preference Qs
• If Scotland votes to remain part of the United
Kingdom, *should* the Scottish Parl...
Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
Want more devolution
NO YES
Vote no
11%
Vote yes
26%
Vote no
9%
Vote yes?
41%YES
NO
Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
Want more devolution
NO YES
Vote no
11%
Vote yes
26%
Vote no
9%
Vote yes?
41%YES
NO
Di...
Think
devolution
will
happen
anyway
Want more devolution
NO YES
Vote no
7%
Vote yes
71%
Vote no
3%
Vote yes?
35%YES
NO
Int...
Welsh and English preferences for Scotland
remaining in the Union
68
16 16
68
16 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Remain UK In...
Welsh constitutional preference Qs
• Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
There should be no devolved gov...
Welsh constitutional preferences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more p...
Welsh constitutional preferences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more p...
English constitutional preference Qs
• Some UK laws only affect England because some policies are
decided in Scotland and ...
BES data playground from summer 2014
www.britishelectionstudy.com
ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland
4 June 2014
0-100 expectations that Scotland will
choose independence
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Scotland will definitely choose
...
If expect Scotland to become independent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers ...
The BES instruments
2015 General Election
Pre
N = 20,000
Post-election face-to-face
probability sample
+ mailback inc. CSE...
Scotland and the Rest of the UK
WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP COULD A POST-
YES SCOTLAND HAVE WITH THE REST OF THE
UK?
• DR NI...
What kind of relationship could a
post-yes Scotland have with the
rest of the UK?
Dr Nicola McEwen
University of Edinburgh...
Yes to what…?
What would ‘an independent
country’ look like?
Scottish Government’s
independence vision embedded
within B...
White Paper on Scotland’s Future:
a vision of cooperative governance
Shared monarchy
Sterling currency union
Common Tra...
No pre-negotiation
Benefits of union as ‘best of
both worlds’ +
Hard view of independence as
separation:
 no currency ...
Post-Yes
pragmatism?
Edinburgh agreement >
loser’s consent/goodwill
Desire to maintain stability
Easier to maintain co-...
Competing interests – business, regional, political, international
– shape and constrain choices
UK Gen Election > polit...
Inadequacies of existing machinery of IGR - Joint Ministerial
Committee/British-Irish Council
Annual summits/joint worki...
“Our citizens, uniquely linked by
geography and history, are connected today as never before... Our two
economies benefit ...
Dr Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh
Email: N.McEwen@ed.ac.uk
@mcewen_nicola
ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland Progr...
Scotland and the Rest of the UK
• PROFESSOR JANE GREEN
• DR NICOLA MCEWEN
Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London
Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London
Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London
Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London
Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London
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Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

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With the Scottish referendum only months away, this seminar focussed on current issues being debated in Scotland and the UK more broadly.

Experts from ESRC's Future of the UK and Scotland programme highlighted the latest evidence on a range of topics including EU membership, defence, public and business attitudes, and Scotland's relationship with the rest of the UK.

Session themes were:

The current state of the debate
What business thinks
Scottish independence: what the public thinks
Scotland and the rest of the UK

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Future of the UK and Scotland presentation, 4 June 2014, London

  1. 1. Welcome and introduction to the ESRC’s Future of the UK and Scotland programme of activities • PHIL SOOBEN • Director of Policy, Resources and Communications • Economic and Social Research Council
  2. 2. The current state of the debate CURRENT POLITICAL STRATEGIES • PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY • Future of the UK and Scotland Research Co-ordinator • University of Edinburgh
  3. 3. Scotland’s Referendum: Political Strategies Charlie Jeffery University of Edinburgh
  4. 4. www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk
  5. 5. Political Strategies • How the two sides are approaching the referendum – The ‘big picture’ – The economic implications
  6. 6. The big picture strategy Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes/No A binary choice superimposed on a three-way split in opinion
  7. 7. What should the Scottish Parliament do? 2013 data, Scottish Social Attitudes Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence) 31% UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else 32% UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now) 25% UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 8%
  8. 8. The Median Voter Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence) 31% UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else 32% UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now) 25% UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 8%
  9. 9. Yes: What kind of independence? • Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence with partnership’ – Doing some things markedly differently from RUK – Doing the same things as RUK but better – Doing the same things in much the same way as now in partnership with RUK • Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency, monarchy, social union
  10. 10. Yes: What kind of independence? • Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence with partnership’ – Doing some things markedly differently from RUK – Doing the same things as RUK but better – Doing the same things in much the same way as now in partnership with RUK • Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency, monarchy, social union – This the key terrain in the debate
  11. 11. Yes: What kind of independence? • Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence with partnership’ – Doing some things markedly differently from RUK – Doing the same things as RUK but better – Doing the same things in much the same way as now in partnership with RUK • Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency, monarchy, social union – This the key terrain in the debate • A principled vision of independence? Yes
  12. 12. Yes: What kind of independence? • Scottish Govt White Paper Nov 2013: ‘independence with partnership’ – Doing some things markedly differently from RUK – Doing the same things as RUK but better – Doing the same things in much the same way as now in partnership with RUK • Keeping five of the six current unions: EU, NATO, currency, monarchy, social union – This the key terrain in the debate • A principled vision of independence? Yes • Referendum tactic? That too
  13. 13. The Median Voter Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence) 31% UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else 32% UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now) 25% UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 2013 data 8%
  14. 14. The UK Govt No: the Scotland Analysis Series • Feb 2013 to May 2014 • 14 papers, ~ 1,500 pages – Several on economy, plus defence, security, EU/international, borders/migration, research – Core message: status quo better than independence – Written in measured, scholarly manner, not dismissing ‘independence with partnership’, but ‘no guaranteed access’ …
  15. 15. Until • Currency Union debate February 2014 • Formal sterling currency union ruled out – By Scotland Analysis paper – By publication of civil service advice – By Conservative, Labour, LibDem figures in one voice “it is not going to happen” Refusal to engage on the terrain of ‘independence with partnership’
  16. 16. Why? • A set of beliefs at the UK level about what ‘independence’ means (see EU debate) • A pre-negotiating stance? [The Scottish Govt view] • Tactics: (one part of an) electoral pincer movement
  17. 17. The Median Voter Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence) 31% UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else 32% UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now) 25% UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 2013 data 8%
  18. 18. The Other Part: When No Means More … • Proposals for further-reaching devolution if Scotland votes No from pro-union parties, think tanks – Tax devolution, welfare devolution – The Conservatives yesterday completed the set • Completing the pincer movement on the median voter
  19. 19. The Median Voter Make all decisions for Scotland (= independence) 31% UK Government decides on defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Parliament everything else 32% UK Govt decides on defence, foreign affairs, taxes and benefits, the Scottish Parliament everything else (= now) 25% UK Govt makes all decisions for Scotland 2013 data 8%
  20. 20. The Economy • Voters’ views of the economic consequences of independence are the best predictors of Yes or No voting
  21. 21. The Economy (aka the £500 question) “Say it was clear that if Scotland became an independent country (separate from the rest of the UK) the standard of living would be higher/lower and people would on average be £500 a year better/worse off. In these circumstances would you be in favour or against Scotland becoming an independent country?” Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
  22. 22. £500 2013 £500 Better off No change £500 Worse off % % % In favour of independence 52 34 15 Neither 12 9 16 Against independence 30 40 72
  23. 23. Last Week … • UK Govt paper: Scots £1,400 better off in union • Scottish Govt paper: Scots £1,000 better off with independence • Different assumptions, each challenged – See www.futureukandscotland/blog/financial- reflections-blog-round • A turbo-charged version of the £500 question
  24. 24. The current state of the debate THE DEBATE AROUND DEFENCE • DR COLIN FLEMING • ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Edinburgh •
  25. 25. Dr Colin Fleming Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
  26. 26. The Defence Debate • Small States vs Large States • What Scotland Wants? • NATO and Trident? • Defence Relationship with the UK
  27. 27. The current state of the debate THE EU MEMBERSHIP DEBATE • PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING • Director, Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Edinburgh
  28. 28. The current state of the debate • PROFESSOR CHARLIE JEFFERY • DR COLIN FLEMING • PROFESSOR MICHAEL KEATING
  29. 29. What business thinks UNCERTAINTIES FOR BUSINESS LEADERS • PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY • ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow in the Scotland Analysis • University of Edinburgh Business School
  30. 30. THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE: EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS Future of the UK and Scotland 12.30pm – 3.30pm, Wednesday 4 June 2014 Hoare Memorial Hall, Church House Conference Centre Dean's Yard, London SW1P 3NZ Professor Brad MacKay, University of Edinburgh Business School
  31. 31. What risks and opportunities does the independence referendum pose for businesses in Scotland? Are businesses planning for the referendum, and if they are, how? Is the constitutional debate impacting on business decisions? What decisions might be taken in different constitutional scenarios? The Scottish independence debate and referendum raises questions about how conditions of constitutional uncertainty are influencing business decision-making across diverse industry sectors in Scotland. Uncertainties around issues such as fiscal and monetary policies, currency, industry regulation, international agreements, or future participation in the EU have implications for businesses operating in Scotland, and influence decisions on whether to invest, re-invest, expand, withdraw, locate or relocate business activity. THE SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DEBATE: EVIDENCE FROM BUSINESS
  32. 32. THE SAMPLE
  33. 33. THE SAMPLE By Sector No. % Financial Services (life insurance, retail, wealth management) 20 33 Energy (incl. Hydro and Oil and Gas companies) 12 20 Electronics/Technology 9 15 Life Science 7 12 Engineering/Industrial Manufacturing 12 20 Total 60 100 Other (Food and Drink) 4
  34. 34. COMPANY PROFILE 36 By Size No. % Large 32 53 Medium (2XS/M) 28 47 Total 60 100 Primary Trade/Customers No. % Scotland 6 10 rUK 16 27 Global 38 63 Total 60 100 Ownership Structure No. % PLC 28 47 Private 18 30 Partnership 8 13 Trade Body 6 10 Total 60 100 Ownership No. % Scotland 33 55 rUK 12 20 Abroad 15 25 Total 60 100
  35. 35. THE SCOTTISH ECONOMY Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate
  36. 36. ARE THERE RISKS?
  37. 37. RISKS Industry Financial Services Life Sciences Electronics/ Technology Engineering/ Ind. Manuf. Energy (incl. oil and gas) Key Risks Change in Currency 14 2 5 5 5 Regulatory Changes 15 3 1 1 5 Personal Taxes 10 1 2 2 4 Corporate Tax 8 -- 2 4 5 EU 8 -- 3 4 5 Recruitment/Retention 7 1 2 1 3 Compet./Client. Reloc. 5 -- -- 5 -- Reputation 5 1 3 3 -- Investment/financing -- 4 3 4 2 Pension Costs 3 -- -- 2 -- No vote. In-out ref. etc. 1 -- 1 2 1 Cross-border Collabor. -- 2 -- -- -- Licencing/Labour Laws -- -- 1 4 2 IP -- 1 1 -- 2
  38. 38. RISKS “It’s perceived risk around stability. And I guess there’s a number of subsets of that, so one of them is fiscal…issues around currency… concerns around who the regulators will be, where they’ll be based, what the influence of Europe may or may not be on that… EU safety regulation… there’s questions about Scotland’s EU membership, our infrastructure will cross boundaries … So there’s a whole host of issues but they all really come down to this question of stability or uncertainty around what these things might look like.” L, PLC, rUK, Global 40 “I think the simple answer to that is no. Because sometimes I think the people who are raising the uncertainty issues, I’m not sure they get out enough, you know…we’re all in the EU transacting cross-border… we’re dealing with a multitude of currencies, different nationalities. So for the life of me, if Scotland chooses independence, I don’t see necessarily why that is going to overcomplicate things. I just can’t see it.” (ET, M, Priv., Global) Indicative View Minority View
  39. 39. WHAT ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES?
  40. 40. Industry Financial Services Life Sciences Electronics/ Technology Engineering/ Ind. Manuf. Energy (incl. oil and gas) Key Opportunities Products/Services 4 2 -- 1 1 Income tax decreases 6 -- -- 2 -- Corp tax decreases 2 -- -- 2 2 Access to government -- 1 1 1 1 Liberal Immigration 2 2 1 2 1 R&D Rebates -- -- 1 -- -- Redesign Regulations -- 1 1 -- 3 Scottish Brand/Pride 1 -- 1 1 -- Made in Scotland prov. -- -- -- 1 2 Gov. funding/subsidy -- 4 -- 2 2 Connections -- 2 1 1 -- Skills training -- -- -- 1 1 Influence EU Directly -- -- -- 1 1 Change model of independence 2 -- -- -- 1 OPPORTUNITIES
  41. 41. OPPORTUNITIES “[Reducing] Import/export legislation. Taxation associated with cross border trade. Regulation of the business in Scotland… Change. And risk, and fear, and all these other things, plus opportunity, catalyse action in a way that doesn’t happen if it’s just the status quo... I think there would be a sense of immediacy in terms of what one could do that would really affect prosperity, in a way that’s maybe different in a larger country.” (EM, M. Priv., SB, FO, Global) “I think if Scotland went Independent, it would make the most of it, and it would rise to the challenge, and everybody would do the best they could… But I think certainly initially in the short term, it would be a net loss and wouldn’t bring any benefits in the short term at all, other than to perhaps generate a bit more national pride and the will to overcome the difficulties. But it’s not just about Scotland; it’s about Scotland’s place in the larger world...” (EM, M. Priv., SB) Indicative view … Minority view…
  42. 42. AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING?
  43. 43. Industry Financial Services Life Sciences Electronics/ Technology Engineering/ Ind. Manuf. Energy (incl. oil and gas) Contingency Planning Discussions 16 1 2 2 5 Monitoring risks 4 1 2 1 1 Analysis/tactical plans 12 -- -- 4 4 Investing in/existing option to restructure 3 -- 3 1 2 Rely on business continuity plans 3 1 2 -- -- Deferring investment -- 1 -- 1 -- CONTINGENCY PLANNING * These numbers are fluid and, data suggests, largely reflect the time interviews were conducted and previous stability in the polls. A narrowing of the polls is likely to result in more wide-spread contingency planning, as has the publication of annual reports in recent weeks.
  44. 44. CONTINGENCY PLANNING “None at all, as I say, I can only see positives if Scotland were to gain its independence. And I think a lot of the debate up here around issues going across the border are just overheated nonsense frankly.” (ET, Priv., M, Global) “[Contingency planning] is bluster. If there’s a yes vote you don’t know what the environment will be.” (EM, L., Priv., Global). “None whatsoever.” (ET, M., Priv., Global) On the other hand …On the one hand … “Very informal. There has been no contingency plan, though I’m being asked more and more, what would you do if Scotland were to go independent… we could be based anywhere.” (FS, M. Priv., EU). “You know, I can’t afford to move the business, nor would I want to … but if there are problems by way of labour migration or customers not wanting to necessarily trade as easily, or suddenly I’m a Scottish supplier and not a UK supplier, then I’m building a supply chain, a near- shore supply chain as a contingency.” (EM, L., PLC, rUK).
  45. 45. WHAT CONCLUSIONS CAN WE DRAW FROM THE SAMPLE?
  46. 46. DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THE SAMPLE … Uncertainty poses a challenge for business leaders; The risks expressed by business leaders are highly specific and directly concern business activity; The opportunities are less specific and tend to relate to the politics of the debate; Business leaders of medium-sized, private companies exporting globally are the most likely to emphasise the opportunities presented by the possibility of Scottish independence;  PLC companies headquartered in Scotland appear most affected;
  47. 47. DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THE SAMPLE… Companies whose trade is mainly in the rUK (typically 90%, with 10% in Scotland) appear far more affected than companies whose trade is mainly in Scotland or is global; Medium sized, privately owned companies appear more willing to absorb downside risk than PLCs; Medium sized, foreign-owned companies trading predominantly in a global market indicate they are less affected by the constitutional debate than PLCs trading primarily in the rUK;  About 10% of companies indicate they have contingency plans to restructure their businesses to migrate economic activity out of Scotland.
  48. 48. SUMMARY
  49. 49. “But this isn’t a complex or complicated debate for us. It’s really very straightforward. We have 3 categories of stakeholder whose interest we need to bear in mind: our customers, our shareholders, and our employees. And we’re a PLC … so our shareholders’ interests are obviously of paramount importance. So it’s, does the economic environment in which we operate, does it support the continued sustainability of the business and the future prosperity of those three groups. And if it doesn’t, what do we do about it. It’s not a political debate for us. It isn’t complicated. But it’s trying to take the politics out of it that’s the difficult thing. If you take any of those three stakeholder groups, employees for example, it’s very difficult to, in their minds, to differentiate between the political statement and the statement protecting stakeholders’ interests. So it’s quite difficult….But in terms of understanding what the right thing to do is, that’s not difficult at all. That’s not difficult. We’ve got to protect the interests of those three groups.” (PLC., L., rUK)
  50. 50. FIRM BEHAVIOUR? Business behaviour will be driven by protecting:  Customers  Ability to sell products/services (location of customer base, regulations, reputation);  Ability to access markets (ie. MOD, EU, rUK, trade agreements).  Employees  Ability to attract high value, skilled labour (ie. quality of life);  Ability to maintain high value, skilled labour (ie. personal taxes).  Shareholders  Ability to create value (ie. perception, profitability);  Value destruction (ie. through increasing costs/complexity).  Environment/Government Support  Trading environment competitiveness/Government support
  51. 51. THE SCENARIO MATRIX INDEPENDENCE HEAVY (HIGH TRANSITION COSTS) DEVO MINOR INDEPENDENCE LITE (MODEST TRANSITION COSTS) DEVO PLUS Behaviours Conflict Partnership Referendum Vote Yes No
  52. 52. THE SCOTTISH PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE TRANSITION? Source: McPhee, D. 2013. Business in Scotland. Scottish Government, http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate
  53. 53. @UKScotland #indyrefbusiness futureukandscotland.ac.uk
  54. 54. What business thinks SURVEY EVIDENCE ON BUSINESS AND INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE • PROFESSOR DAVID BELL • ESRC Senior Scottish Fellow and part of the ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Stirling •
  55. 55. The Independence Debate: Views from Business PROFESSOR DAVID BELL DIVISION OF ECONOMICS STIRLING MANAGEMENT SCHOOL UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING
  56. 56. Business Attitudes to the Independence Debate • Economy is vital to the referendum outcome • University of Stirling has carried out two surveys of business opinion • Key issues for businesses – Taxation – Currency – Regulation – Relationship with EU
  57. 57. How important is the following factor in deciding how you are going to vote … 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Percent How the Scottish economy will fare YouGov Poll for University of Stirling taken Dec 2013 n = 2037
  58. 58. Exploring business attitudes: surveys of Scottish Chambers of Commerce members in June 2013 and Feb 2014 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 1-9 10-49 50-250 250+ NumberofCompaniesinSample Number of Employees Jun 2013 Feb 2014 broadly the same size distribution ….
  59. 59. Where does your company mainly trade? 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Mainly Scotland Mainly rUK Mainly Europe Mainly RoW NumberofCompanies Jun 2013 Feb 2014 Most focussed on Scottish market …
  60. 60. Share of firms viewing each issue as ‘important’ or ‘very important’ in relation to independence Growing concerns in the business community …
  61. 61. Main concerns for firms by main trading area …. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Income Tax Rates Corporation tax Business Regulation Currency Migration Percentoffirmsviewingissueas 'important'or'extremelyimportant' Mainly Scotland Mainly rUK Mainly Europe Mainly RoW
  62. 62. Opportunities with independence … shareoffirms Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014 Scottish Government
  63. 63. Risks with independence … shareoffirms Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014 More firms take the view that there are ‘No opportunities’ rather than ‘No risks’
  64. 64. Risks with independence by main trading area … 38% 27% 8% 8% 9% 10% 39% 15% 7% 4% 23% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Uncertainty/ time it takes to transfer to independence Less access / business links with the rUK Less identification with the 'UK/British brand' Contraction of the firm No risks Other risk Percentoffirms Mainly rUK Other Source: Second Survey - Feb 2014
  65. 65. Opportunities – business views – ‘More Scottish appropriate policies which will lead to a closer identification with a Scottish brand which I think will have greater traction with a global market.‘ – ‘Lower taxation & economic incentives. International inward investment.’ – ‘Although we might be hammered by differential exchange rates on our importation of ingredients and raw materials - mostly sourced outside Scotland, we might also benefit if a new Scottish currency is created and the value sinks against our major trading currency partners. This could improve competiveness?’
  66. 66. Risks – business views – ‘Higher taxation, greater investment risk.’ – ‘Antagonisms currently being generated that seems to be sending the wrong messages to the other UK members.’ – ‘The obvious risk is that the Scotland will be unable to meet its debts when they fall due as the proposals from Salmond are lacking in any business credibility’ – ‘If there is a yes vote overseas students will be uncertain where and how they can apply for a Scottish Visa so they will study in another country’
  67. 67. Evidence of negative effects on trade – “the border effect” • Border effect - trade is much higher within countries than across national boundaries. Current evidence suggests high levels of trade “friction” between Scotland and Rest of World (excluding Rest of UK) but very low level of friction between Scotland and ruK • Estimated effect of borders ~ 5 per cent of GDP Source: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41434
  68. 68. Final thoughts … • Large scale surveys suggest that businesses believe that risks associated with independence outweigh opportunities • Businesses strongly support the retention of a monetary union with rUK. In their view, other currency options will have a negative or very negative impact on their businesses. • Independence is not the only risk/opportunity faced by Scottish businesses. Leaving the EU, whether as part of the UK, or as an independent country is viewed negatively by the majority of Scottish businesses. • [Source: Bell, D. and McGoldrick, M. (2014) ‘Business attitudes to Constitutional Change’ Accessed at: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/papers/business-attitudes-constitutional- change ]
  69. 69. What business thinks • PROFESSOR BRAD MACKAY • PROFESSOR DAVID BELL
  70. 70. Scottish independence: what the public thinks PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND SCOTLAND'S INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM • PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE • ESRC Senior Scotland Fellow • NatCen/ScotCen Social Research • Strathclyde University
  71. 71. Public Attitudes and the Referendum John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @whatscotsthink
  72. 72. Two Questions • Who is ahead? • What matters most to voters?
  73. 73. The Referendum Race 38 39 39 41 43 43 62 61 61 59 57 57 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Feb-May 13 July-Sept. 13 Oct-Dec. 13 Jan-mid Feb. 14 Mid Feb- Mar 14 Apr - May 14 Yes No Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May 13; 11 July-Oct 13; 8 Oct-Dec. 1;, 7 Jan-mid Feb 14; 12 mid-Feb-Mar 14; 11 Apr-May 14. Don’t Knows excluded
  74. 74. House Differences 45 45 44 41 40 38 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Panelbase ICM Survation TNS BMRB YouGov (Ipsos MORI) %Yes Based on all polls since Jan. Don’t Knows excluded
  75. 75. Partly A Question of Identity 67 46 16 9 7 18 39 71 81 87 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sc not Br More Sc than Br Equal More Br than Sc Br not Sc Yes No Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator
  76. 76. But Identity Largely Unchanging (and Dual) 24 23 24 23 22 24 30 27 28 26 25 24 33 33 33 34 33 34 4 5 5 7 6 6 7 9 8 8 9 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Feb May Sept Dec Feb May Sc not Br More Sc than Br Equal More Br than Sc Br not Sc Source: Ipsos MORI
  77. 77. Economy Matters More 87 2 62 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Better Worse % Yes Economy Equality Source: ICM Research May 2014. Don’t Knows included in denominator
  78. 78. And Tracks Ref VI Better -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sept Jan Feb Mar Apr May No Lead Net Economy Net Equality Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows included in denominators
  79. 79. Summary • The No lead narrowed in the winter – but has remained stable (at the lower level) in the spring. Still differences between polls. • People’s sense of national identity provides a starting point, but is far from being a sole determinant • Thus the importance of the debate about the economy (but less so equality). Yes progress in this debate helps explain the smaller No lead
  80. 80. Scottish independence: what the public thinks THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION IN PUBLIC OPINION • PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY • ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • Stirling University
  81. 81. Citizen Preferences for Constitutional Change in Scotland David Bell, Liam Delaney and Michael McGoldrick Stirling Management School University of Stirling
  82. 82. Overview • Scottish Independence Referendum • Behavioural Economics • Processing of Risk particularly Economic Risk • Risk Perceptions • Risk Aversion • Future Work
  83. 83. • Designed by Research Team • Administered by Yougov in December 2013 • 2037 Respondents • Follow-up from Scottish Election Survey • Wide range of demographic and other questions • Simple measure of risk aversion validated in recent papers • Validated Measures of future orientation Survey
  84. 84. Likelihood of Voting 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Percentageofeachsetofvoters Certainty of voting 0 - lowest 10- highest Certainty of voting Yes to independence No to independence
  85. 85. Constitutional Options 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Scotland in the UK with no increase in powers Scotland in the UK with increased tax powers Scotland independent, pound Scotland independent, own currency Scotland independent, euro None of the above Don't know Yes to independence No to independence Do not Know
  86. 86. Attitudes and Voting 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Scottish, not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and More British than Scottish British, not Scottish Yes to independence No to independence Don't know
  87. 87. Temporal Attitudes 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Are you generally an impatient person, or someone who always shows patience? Yes No
  88. 88. Risk Attitudes and Voting 3% 2% 4% 5% 7% 17% 16% 20% 16% 3% 8% 6% 4% 5% 8% 8% 21% 18% 17% 9% 1% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Willingness to take a risk Yes No
  89. 89. Risk Attitudes and Voting
  90. 90. Factors in Voting Intention 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Importance of Scotland's National debt Yes to independence No to independence
  91. 91. Factors in Voting Intention 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Importance of pension entitlements to voters Yes to independence No to independence
  92. 92. Economic Voting 70% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 8% 63% 1% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 8% 27% 3% 5% 7% 10% 7% 4% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% No amount would make Less than 500 per year 500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Don't know
  93. 93. Economic Voting 17% 24% 13% 14% 14% 18% 3% 7% 12% 20% 26% 32% 7% 15% 20% 28% 20% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Less than 500 per year 500 to 1,000 1,001 to 2,000 2,001 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 More than 10,000 Amount of income to sway the changeable minds Yes to independence No to independence D0 not know
  94. 94. • Higher risk willingness substantially increases support for Independence • Females less supportive of Independence • Those born in Scotland more supportive • Older and higher income less supportive • Some of gender effect explained by risk willingness Statistical Modelling
  95. 95. • Salience • Priming of risk • Framing of risk • Risk and Ambiguity • Risk and Benefit “Overload” • Endowment Effects Further Questions
  96. 96. Scottish independence: what the public thinks • PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE • PROFESSOR LIAM DELANEY
  97. 97. Scotland and the Rest of the UK BRITISH ELECTION STUDY: FIRST FINDINGS ON CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES IN SCOTLAND, WALES, ENGLAND • PROFESSOR JANE GREEN • Institute for Social Change • Manchester University
  98. 98. Constitutional issues in Scotland, Wales and England Professor Jane Green, University of Manchester
  99. 99. BES2015 data collection - wave 1 • 20,881 person online sample fielded by YouGov • 4,139 respondents in Scotland • 2,256 respondents in Wales • Fieldwork: 20 February – 9 March 2014 • Same respondents surveyed again end May, after September 2014, and then 2015 onwards • 5 minute module to Scottish respondents • Large number of items on Scottish independence
  100. 100. Scottish constitutional preference Qs • If Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, *should* the Scottish Parliament have more powers than it does at present, fewer powers, or should the Parliament's powers stay about the same as they are now. • And if Scotland votes to remain part of the United Kingdom, do you think that the powers devolved to the Scottish parliament *will* change?
  101. 101. Think devolution will happen anyway Want more devolution NO YES Vote no 11% Vote yes 26% Vote no 9% Vote yes? 41%YES NO
  102. 102. Think devolution will happen anyway Want more devolution NO YES Vote no 11% Vote yes 26% Vote no 9% Vote yes? 41%YES NO Distribution of four groups within the Scottish sample
  103. 103. Think devolution will happen anyway Want more devolution NO YES Vote no 7% Vote yes 71% Vote no 3% Vote yes? 35%YES NO Intention to vote ‘yes’ in referendum by group in sample
  104. 104. Welsh and English preferences for Scotland remaining in the Union 68 16 16 68 16 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Remain UK Independent Don't know English Welsh
  105. 105. Welsh constitutional preference Qs • Which of these statements comes closest to your view? There should be no devolved government in Wales The National Assembly for Wales should have fewer powers We should leave things as they are now The National Assembly for Wales should have more powers Wales should become independent, separate from the UK • How do you think that the powers devolved to the National Assembly for Wales will change over the next few years?
  106. 106. Welsh constitutional preferences 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers Should Will
  107. 107. Welsh constitutional preferences 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers Should Will
  108. 108. English constitutional preference Qs • Some UK laws only affect England because some policies are decided in Scotland and Wales. How do you think laws that only affect England should be made? • By UK Parliament, with all MPs having a vote 18% • By UK Parliament, only English MPs having a vote 47% • By a new, separate parliament for England, but with England remaining part of the UK 13% • By a new, separate parliament for England, England becoming independent from the rest of the UK 4% • Don't know 18%
  109. 109. BES data playground from summer 2014 www.britishelectionstudy.com ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland 4 June 2014
  110. 110. 0-100 expectations that Scotland will choose independence 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Scotland will definitely choose independence Scotland will definitely choose to stay in UK %
  111. 111. If expect Scotland to become independent 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Many fewer powers Some fewer powers Same Some more powers Many more powers Scotland in the Union Independent Scotland
  112. 112. The BES instruments 2015 General Election Pre N = 20,000 Post-election face-to-face probability sample + mailback inc. CSES module N = 3,000 Post N = 20,000 Scottish and local elections N = 20,000 Local elections N = 15,000 Twitter data harvest January 2014 May 2014 September 2014 May 2017 May 2016 Voter registration data matching 2010 election sample 2005 election sample Base sample N = 20,000 European and local elections N = 20,000 Independence referendum N = 20,000 Daily rolling thunder N = 650 per day
  113. 113. Scotland and the Rest of the UK WHAT KIND OF RELATIONSHIP COULD A POST- YES SCOTLAND HAVE WITH THE REST OF THE UK? • DR NICOLA MCEWEN • Associate Director, ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change • University of Edinburgh
  114. 114. What kind of relationship could a post-yes Scotland have with the rest of the UK? Dr Nicola McEwen University of Edinburgh Associate Director ESRC Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change
  115. 115. Yes to what…? What would ‘an independent country’ look like? Scottish Government’s independence vision embedded within British Isles and EU Independence as end of only the parliamentary union – monarchical, currency, defence, European, and social unions would remain intact Institutional and governmental co-operation & ‘strategic partnerships’ with rUK “with independence… Scotland and the rest of the UK would both stand on our own two feet – taking our own decisions, and working together on issues of common interest. Our relationship would be what it should always have been – a partnership of equals.” Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Deputy First Minister June 2013
  116. 116. White Paper on Scotland’s Future: a vision of cooperative governance Shared monarchy Sterling currency union Common Travel Area/labour market Cross-border agreements in specialist health care services/transplant Common research area in higher education Strategic energy partnership, GB market, Green Investment Bank BBC/SBC Joint venture UK-wide National Lottery/Big Lottery Fund Cross-border co-operation to combat serious & organised crime Functional cross-border bodies, e.g. Office of Rail Regulation, Civil Aviation Authority Informal partnership - as ‘equals’ and ‘allies’ - within NATO/the European Union
  117. 117. No pre-negotiation Benefits of union as ‘best of both worlds’ + Hard view of independence as separation:  no currency union;  EU/NATO membership in doubt  Likely necessity of border posts  No energy partnership/integrated common market  Defence co-operation unlikely Hard pre-referendum stance “…the value of the pound lies in the entire monetary system underpinning it... supported by political union, banking union and automatic transfers of public spending across the United Kingdom. A vote to leave the UK is also a vote to leave these unions and those transfers and those monetary arrangements… If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound. ” George Osborne Chancellor of the Exchequer
  118. 118. Post-Yes pragmatism? Edinburgh agreement > loser’s consent/goodwill Desire to maintain stability Easier to maintain co- operation than to completely dismantle union EU as a driver promoting cross-border co-operation and integration “we will continue to work together constructively in the light of the outcome, whatever it is, in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom” Edinburgh Agreement, 2012
  119. 119. Competing interests – business, regional, political, international – shape and constrain choices UK Gen Election > political costs of (in)action Principled & practical objection to pooling sovereignty/ceding control Resistance to imposed change on centre Concessions, where they come, will imply constraints Limits to cooperative governance
  120. 120. Inadequacies of existing machinery of IGR - Joint Ministerial Committee/British-Irish Council Annual summits/joint working groups on the UK-Irish model? Standing institutions - e.g. North South Ministerial Council, Nordic Council of Ministers - can help to:  foster mutual trust  nurture common purpose/identity  raise awareness  get issues on national agendas Informal bilateral networks crucial Governing Interdependence after independence
  121. 121. “Our citizens, uniquely linked by geography and history, are connected today as never before... Our two economies benefit from a flow of people, goods, investment, capital and ideas on a scale that is rare even in this era of global economic integration… “We intend that this Joint Statement will be the starting point for realising the potential over the next decade of even stronger relations for current and future generations living on these islands.” David Cameron and Enda Kenny, March 2012 Why would it be different for Scotland?
  122. 122. Dr Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh Email: N.McEwen@ed.ac.uk @mcewen_nicola ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland Programme website: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk @UKScotland Further info
  123. 123. Scotland and the Rest of the UK • PROFESSOR JANE GREEN • DR NICOLA MCEWEN

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