futurethink: Future of Social Networks

This presentation is a preview of the Future of Social Networks , a research report by future think . The full report can be downloaded at www.getfuturethink.com

The Future of Social Networks

The Five Trends We’ll Explore:

1 | Show Them The Money.

Social Networks will force advertisers to engage consumers in new ways.

2 | Social Networks can Work Hard Too

Enterprise Social Networks will enhance productivity and innovation in the workplace.

3 | Map for Social Network Management

New applications will assist in visualizing, managing, synchronizing, and sharing information across multiple social networks.

4 | The Web Browser and Email Get Social

New social web users will emerge around alternatives to traditional social networks.

5 | A Smarter, Social, Semantic Web

Advanced Web applications will emerge to help users manage information and synchronize online activities with offline life.

Welcome to the Social Web

Social networks are online communities that allow users to create a web presence, manage their identities, and stay connected to friends and colleagues. Social networks like Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn are among the most popular destinations on the web, with millions of users from around the globe signing up daily.

These sites are quickly evolving from mere public profiles into platforms for communication, creativity, advertising, and even commerce.

A Look at the Numbers

During 2007, 37% of the U.S. adult Internet population used online social networking at least once a month. eMarketer expects that figure will rise to 49% by 2011.

Currently, 70% of all U.S. teens visit social network sites on a monthly basis.

Worldwide online social network ad spending will grow 82% from $1.2 billion in 2007 to $2.2 billion in 2008. In the U.S. alone, spending is projected to rise to $1.6 billion in 2008, from $920 million n 2007.

Source: Williamson, Debra A. Social Network Marketing: Ad Spending and Usage . eMarketer . December 2007.

Social Networks 101

1 | Show Them The Money

Social networking firms, like most other web-companies, exist to make money. But so far, even the most successful networks have struggled to find ways of turning popularity into a consistent stream of revenue. Beyond the all-too-ubiquitous banner ad, networks haven’t successfully managed to use what they know about users to connect them with relevant advertisers in an engaging way.

The ultimate goal of both social networks and advertisers is to turn the rich information users provide to social networks into relevant messages that users enjoy seeing, hearing, and reading. As users become better at managing their online identities, they’ll likely grow more inclined to share their online and offline behavior with companies for the sake of enjoying a richer, more satisfying web experience.

Advertising on social networking sites will become increasingly targeted and relevant in the next few years as advertisers learn how to use information from a user’s profile to craft better-targeted messages.

Social advertising, formal mechanisms that allow users to endorse a certain company, product, service, or event; stands to emerge as the dominant source of revenue for social networks (and potentially for users, as well).

Organizations will seek out ways to allow users to either actively or passively “endorse” their products and services through the social networking sphere.

What does it mean for you? Ask Yourself:

How can we tap into the social networking space to make it easier for our “fans” to endorse our company?

What emerging organizations can we tap to better engage users in the social networking space? (How can we go beyond the banner ad?)

2 | Social Networks Can Work Hard Too

A major growth opportunity for both new and existing social networking sites and applications is within the workplace.

While some might perceive social network behavior as frivolous and a waste of time, other organizations are starting to tap the benefits of social web behavior to improve productivity and to support a culture of innovation. These companies see real value in promoting social web behavior between their employees, partners, and customers.

Enterprise social networks will emerge within the walls of major global corporations to facilitate collaboration, reputation building, and knowledge transfer.

Enterprise social network users will be able to create a sophisticated “reputation” system through which users can post rich profiles and peers can rate one another.

Teams will be able to create smaller sub-networks and groups for specific projects and ideas. Teams will be able to grow organically based on interest, and teams will be able to communicate with one another without interrupting the workflow.

Knowledge management will become simpler as users create wikis and internal encyclopedias and freely contribute to and grow them over time. “Experts” on a particular topic can be easily identified based on their contributions to these knowledge-systems.

How are your employees already participating in the world of social networks? How can you turn their existing ‘social’ behavior into something valuable for your organization?

What is our policy towards identity management? Reputation systems? Do we understand the implications of ‘transparency’ from all sides—the customer, our business partners and within our company?

3 | A Map for Social Network Management

Social graphs are tools that visualize our relationships with friends, family, and colleagues –they’re like family trees for social networks. Ideally, they allow us to define who we are connected to, the type and strength of connection that exists, and the dynamics associated with our interactions.

As users begin to amass more and more contacts and connections on social networking sites, it is becoming increasingly difficult to separate friends and family from acquaintances and professional contacts. It’s not uncommon for the average Facebook or Myspace user to have thousands of ‘friends.’

In the current state of social networks, all “friends” are treated equally. Intelligent social graphing applications will allow users to better define relationships and control information flows.

Today’s networks largely remain “walled gardens,” meaning users cannot easily sync activities across multiple networks. What happens in Facebook stays in Facebook, and what happens in Myspace stays in Myspace.

With multiple social network profiles, many users are beginning to seek out applications and services that will help them easily manage activities across networks, not just within a specific network.

How will your online behavior change when you’re given greater control over your Web-identity?

Will your Web-identity grow richer and more detailed if you know that only your most trusted online connections have access to your profile?

Social networks are challenging Microsoft, AOL, Yahoo, Mozilla, and Google as our favorite starting point for navigating the web. For many social network users, the majority of their online communication and web surfing happen from within a social network. But one simple fact remains: users can generally only access their social networks through a Web browser such as Mozilla Firefox or Microsoft Internet Explorer, and many users receive notifications and updates from their social networks through their email accounts.

There are also millions of other Internet users who have thus far shunned social networks and are looking for ways to benefit from social network activity without having to create a traditional social networking account. For these users, the most important tool is not the Facebook homepage, but their trusted web browser (e.g. Firefox or Internet Explorer) and email inbox (e.g. GMail). Not wanting to get left out of the social networking world completely, these users will begin to install applications that add social elements to their existing web accounts.

Social networks will gradually begin to lose user’s attention as Web browsers and email applications integrate social networking features directly within their interfaces.

Web users who want to avoid the social networking space will be able to passively keep up with friends and family without having to officially join a social network.

Users who struggle to manage multiple social networking accounts will turn to centralized applications that allow for easy updates, communication, and management across networks.

How can you make your customers’ web interaction with your organization more social – whether or not your customers have social networking accounts?

If social networking sites are going to become less of an online destination (but more of an online presence ), do you need to rethink your Facebook or Myspace strategy?

The Semantic Web is the next evolution of the Internet experience. The goal is to create applications and Web experiences that are “intelligent”—in that they understand the context through which they’re being accessed. The Web first emerged as a way for people to talk to people. The second evolution of the Web (Web 2.0) ushered in a wave of applications that allowed people to talk to applications and vice versa. The next evolution? A semantic Web in which applications can talk to one another to create a seamless Web experience.

The Semantic Web is one that can understand and satisfy a user’s requests based on that user’s behavior and data – and much data resides within the walls of a user’s social network. Anyone who uses the Internet and social networking applications is already “connected” – the next step is to help users synchronize their lives, reducing unwanted information flows, and automating simple tasks related to managing life via the Web.

Web users are already connected – they now seek simplicity and synchronization across multiple accounts both online and off.

Every company on the Web holds mountains of data about the people that visit their sites – all this data can be used to create “smart” applications that make our Web experiences more seamless.

How can you create a Web experience for your customers that both respects their privacy and reduces redundant/unnecessary behaviors?

If the Web evolves into a place where applications are automatically suggesting content to users, how will you ensure that you can still connect with potential customers and partners? How will you stay relevant in the Semantic Web?

Final Thoughts

Social networking is still in its infancy, but it is definitely a Web phenomenon that deserves your attention. As we’ve seen, it is far bigger than a passing trend or technology flash in the pan—and its implications around connectivity, commerce, and community are far reaching and long-term.

Microsoft established itself in the PC/Desktop age as a platform for other companies to expand the use of desktop operating systems—but today, the Web is replacing the PC/Desktop as the center of technological innovation.

Industry leaders speak confidently about Web-based software and services that will make applications more scalable, personal, and portable. MySpace, Facebook, and LinkedIn are already being described as platforms and social utilities based on Web services that function across all networked devices.

Final Thoughts

Over the next few years, we expect to see a rise in familiar brands, such as WebMD, Nike, ESPN, or the FoodNetwork, building applications within the Facebook or OpenSocial platforms. Watch for new companies, applications, and uses to emerge in the coming months.

Looking ahead, we encourage you to avoid the short-term “put-a-banner-ad-on-Facebook” strategy. As we’ve pointed out, there are a number of longer-term directions you should consider in order to effectively leverage this nascent platform as a real business opportunity.

Visit www.getfuturethink.com to download a free sample chapter or purchase the full Future of Social Networks Report* Contact: [email_address]