Fg intro (korea dec 2011 day one)


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What is the public sector foresight scene like in Singapore today? Sharings from MTI to Korea Women's Development Institute session in Seoul Dec 2011.

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Fg intro (korea dec 2011 day one)

  1. 1. Futures Group Seoul, Dec 2011 LEE Chor PharnFutures Group, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Singapore http://futures-group.net 1
  2. 2. CONTENTpolicy making &foresight in singaporefutures groupexamples
  4. 4. foresight in singapore governance – an evolving concept1980s 1990s 2000s• Supply-side • Introducing • Accelerating interventions management changes• Thatcherism and business • Deepening• Reaganomics practices to complexities government How can we prepare for a future where we will face strategic surprises time and again? 4
  5. 5. foresight in singapore what are the strategic issus?Black WickedSwans Problems 5
  6. 6. singapore’s experiences policy making over the years 9-11 (2001) SARS (2003) 1980s – 90s• Simple processes & (Developing) • Long term complex structures issues• Basic defining rules • Infrastructure • Eg. ageing population,• Eg. law & order, clean • Growth climate change, up streets • Eg. city planning, marriage-procreation traffic management 1960s – 1970s 2000s + (Setting up) (Sustaining) Climate Change Tsunami Ageing (2011) Financial Resources (2008+) 6
  7. 7. singapore’s experiences policy making over the yearsProcess Control Management Complexity National Traits Science Management• Efficiency• Compliance • Engineer ……..• Anticipate  Speed  Agility • Manage  Nimbleness Need to move from being: Good at fail-safe to Comfortable with safe-fail 7
  8. 8. singapore’s response WOG approach to strategic thinking Whole-of- Central Distributed GovernmentForesight Foresight (WOG) 8
  9. 9. singapore’s response central foresight1980s – Scenario Planning 2004 – RAHS But not sufficient… 9
  10. 10. singapore’s response public sector foresight stakeholdersPublic sector leaders &Senior decision makers What is the value of “foresightMiddle-management work” to them?Policy makers Where is the gap?Foresight-related units 10
  11. 11. singapore public sector 15 Ministries headed by Permanent Secretaries PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE MINISTRY OF LAW MINISTRY OF FINANCE PUBLIC SERVICE DIVISIONSECURITY ECONOMIC SOCIAL Ministry of Defence Ministry of Trade & Industry Ministry of Education Ministry of Community, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Transport Youth and Sports Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of the Environment Ministry of Health and Water Resources Ministry of Information, Ministry of National Communications and the Arts Development Ministry of Manpower 11
  12. 12. singapore public sector distributed foresight network Broad-based National Security Coordination Secretariat Strategic Policy Office (Horizon scanning capabilities) (National scenarios & risk management) Central Centre for Strategic Futures (National foresight capabilities & ‘consultancy’) Ministry of Trade and Industry Futures Group Economic Development Board (Trends and economic implications) (New economic clusters/ industries) Infocomm Development Authority Urban Redevelopment Authority Niche topics Distributed (ICT trends and implications) (Long term land use planning) Ministry of Finance Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority (Budget and social compact issues) (Agri-food and related safety issues) Ministry of Defence Ministry of Community, Youth & Sports (Security and military issues) (Social issues)*non-exhaustive listing
  13. 13. singapore public sector developing & deepening capability Defining Focus EnvironmentalMonitoring Scanning Centre for Strategic Futures Scenario PlanningDesigningStrategies Plus Sense Making Developing Possible Futures
  14. 14. economic planning VUCA environmentvolatile  uncertain  complex  ambiguous • Economic uncertainty and volatility - Small size of Singapore’s economy and outward orientation - Susceptible to volatility in the external economic environment • Thinking ahead: - e.g. analyzing potential effects of Greece sovereign debt crisis and implications for global financial system and trade with the EU • Dynamic & nimble planning and response: - e.g. Responding to global economic recession in 2008 with Special Risk –sharing Initiative 14
  15. 15. economic planning multi-agency coordination PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE MINISTRY OF LAW MINISTRY OF FINANCE PUBLIC SERVICE DIVISION SECURITY ECONOMIC SOCIAL Ministry of Defence Ministry of Trade & Industry Ministry of Education MTI sets broad Affairs Ministry of Foreign Ministry of Community, Ministry of Transport Youth and Sportseconomic direction and policy guidelines Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of the Environment Ministry of Health and Water Resources Ministry of Information, Ministry of National Communications and the Arts Development Ministry of Manpower 15
  16. 16. economic planning the processNational Level Agency Level National Level Economic Economic Agency Agency National MTI Scenarios Economic Inter-agency Agency Committees Emerging Strategic Issues National Economic Risk Strategic Economic Register Priorities Committees WOG-IRM Public + Private + People Strategy Strategy Strategic Analysis Formulation Implementation and “Analyse trends, identify “Brainstorming and coming Review risks and opportunities” up with strategies and “Directing resources towards responses” implementation” 16
  17. 17. economic planning within MTI Strategy StrategyStrategic Analysis Formulation Implementation and“Analyse trends, identify “Brainstorming and Reviewrisks and opportunities” coming up with strategies “Directing resources and responses” towards implementation”• Futures Thinking • Long term planning • Budget and Resource• Horizon Scan (national review) Allocation• Competitiveness • Corporate retreats • Capability DevelopmentAnalysis (medium- to short-term • Translation of strategy &• Monitoring & planning) communicationPerformance Dashboard• Risk Management andAssessment Framework
  18. 18. Foresight at MTI FG-animates: Foresight @ MTI (2011) http://youtu.be/7kf3drHrozk 18
  19. 19. FUTURES GROUP 19
  20. 20. futures group our genesis ?Futures Group started in May 2006 “It is proposed that a unit be set up to strategise on MTI- family wide direction and look at future big ideas... … The unit would focus on big ideas with concrete feasibility and ! economic impact…” - MTI Leadership Nov 2005 20
  21. 21. futures group our mission ? We are the idea generators, competency developers, and network builders ! to shape theSingapore economy of the future 21
  22. 22. futures group medium – to –long-term Systematically identify opportunities Output• Idea Generator • Policy inputs• Competency • Development of • Content Developer new programs and • Competencies initiatives• Network Builder • Connections Strategy Roles Formulation Roles translate into three output areas that then contribute to the wider strategy formulation process.
  23. 23. futures group examples of our workContent Competencies ? ! Future of Future of Emerging Future Structure of “BERGS” Global Demand Trade Strategic Issues Singapore EconomyConnectionsFG Website Videos Publication Manga 23
  24. 24. futures group our BERGS research Free Electric Economy India Vehicles Future Jugaad of Data Arctic Innovatn Ocean Ice Melt Virtual Space Economy Geo-Economies Business Disrupted Engineering enginee ring New business models that disrupt Revolution Rise of the economic value chains on a large scale New technologies that disrupt networks of consumption, production Ecosystem and decision-making New environmental developments No Frills Urban Mobility and climate change issues that disrupt Cities & business configurations Talent Disaster Future Agribusi Mgmt of Mfg ness Future of Asian Food enterprises Asia Soft Future power of Youth Global Demand Augmented Global Re-balancing Social is back Humans Future New power shifts amongst major New demographics and societal states and cities that disrupt the of dynamics that disrupt governance and global playing field trading Mekong economic planning regimes Region & Social ASEAN Enterprise Little The New Silk Economy Railroad 24
  25. 25. EXAMPLES 25
  26. 26. educating on weak signals geo-engineeringClimate hacking manga 26
  27. 27. sharing narratives the great reset The Great Reset video (2008)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80JRHoOcPHU
  28. 28. feeding into policy big data economy LIVE Singapore! Exhibition (2011)http://senseable.mit.edu/livesingapore http://youtu.be/2aEPkyOBtRo
  29. 29. sensitizing to new trends new silk railroad New Silk Railroad Video (2010)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLrmUTDJan8
  30. 30. sensitizing to new trends people’s republic of change People’s Republic of Change Video (2009)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKJ5x68N5jw
  31. 31. Thank youContact us:Futures GroupLee_Chor_Pharn@mti.gov.sg chorpharn@gmail.comhttp://futures-group.nethttp://www.scribd.com/doc/65384905/Imagining-the-New-NormalTopics presented are on-going research and do not represent official policy statements or directions. 31