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China high speed rail (general distribution)
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China high speed rail (general distribution)

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China has transcontinental plans for high speed rail, what might it change?

China has transcontinental plans for high speed rail, what might it change?

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  • 1. (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_high-speed_rail_by_countryhttp://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2010/03/09/china-promotes-its-transcontinental-ambitions-with-massive-rail-plan/)How will the new silk railroads affect Singapore?
  • 2. Please see accompanying animation of China’s HSR at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLrmUTDJan8
  • 3. HSR refers to predominantly passenger rail transport at 250 kph and above. Economic impacts are on people flows (services). HSR can carry goods, but the low volume has negligible impact on shipping flows. (except for low-vol/high-val items)What is High Speed Rail ?
  • 4. 2002 2008 2010 China HSR track ---- 1004km 7055km in operation Market share of rail 70% 15-20 % projects by foreign manufacturers Developmental Milestones. China South has slightly Home-grown HSR First HSR between BJ-TJ in China Star shelved. operation in time for Olympics. over half domestic HSR market share. 37% China North and China South LORICs formed. China signs overseas HSR of RMB 4 Min Railways issues agreements with Turkey, 70% local supplier trillion economic stimulus Venezuela, Thailand etc. policy. package goes to HSR. Local IP not good enough. Financial crisis accelerates Local JVs end. China goes Import foreign IP for HSR building. overseas with former ‘digesting’. partners or alone.China transforms from HSR importer to disruptive low cost HSR provider in 10 years.Source: http://www.uic.org/IMG/pdf/20100521_a1_high_speed_lines_in_the_world.pdf
  • 5. Underpinned by policy and domestic infrastructure build out, HSR will accelerate the formation of the Chinese domestic market NS2 over the next decade. 1) HSR network completed by 2020. ‘4 by 4’ matrix of HSR corridors Four north-south lines NS1 Beijing-Shanghai EW3 NS2 Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin NS3 Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen NS4 Beijing-Ningbo-XiamenEW2 Four east-west lines NS1 EW1 Shanghai-Hangzhou-Changsha EW2 Xuzhou-Zhengzhou-Lanzhou EW3 Qingdao-Taiyuan EW4 Shanghai-Wuhan-ChengduEW4 (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:4%2B4_PDL_network_in_C hina_%28English_version%29.png) EW1 NS4 NS3
  • 6. 6 hours Underpinned by policy and domestic infrastructure build out, 4 hours HSR will accelerate the formation 3 hours of the Chinese domestic market 2 hours over the next decade. 1 hour 2) Shorter travelling times ‘shrink’ China. Major cities can be accessed within 8 hours. The BJ-HK line is the longest at over 1,000km. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_high- speed_rail_network.png) 6 hours8 hours
  • 7. Underpinned by policy anddomestic infrastructure build out,HSR will accelerate the formationof the Chinese domestic marketover the next decade.3) Megacity clusters are emerging.22 city clusters comprising 606 cities, 82%urban population & 92% urban GDP by 2015.Red dots are the centers of each cluster.Thicker lines account for more share of GDP.(Source: Chinese consumer Cluster Map, McKinsey InsightsChina, 2009)
  • 8. Underpinned by policy anddomestic infrastructure build out,HSR will accelerate the formationof the Chinese domestic marketover the next decade.4) Rise of winner city clusters in interiorHSR city corridors which connect significanteconomic regions benefit economically asextended hinterlands.E.g. Changsha-Wuhan-Zhengzhou-Shijiazhuang HSR corridor
  • 9. Russia: Russia may not Astana Ulan Bator want China HSR in its To N N 3 2 territory. Uncertain. Moscow J E Central Asia: To acquire Shijiazhuang 1 3 C N natural resources. May C 1 1 C K E happen. 17 2 Tianjin 1 2 Busan Fukuoka Beijing Jinan C E W W C W C Zhengzhou 3 1 3 2 x 1 16 East Asia: Korea is C 4 Xuzhou pushing for a Mashdad Tashkent Urumqi C Wuhan 15 C transoceanic HSR Nanchang Bengbu Kunming 5 tunnel to link the three M A C M C C Huangshan C Nanjing nations’ HSR systems. 10 C 6 2 1 y 1 11 9 Uncertain. To Delhi C C C Changsha 12 8 ShanghaiLondon 7 13 Hangzhou Guangzhou- 14 Shenzhen- HK W M M 4 4 3 A 3 Yangon Lahore Tehran A ASEAN: May build on Kunming- 4 Vientiane Singapore railway link agreement. BKK A Middle East: India may not 2 becomes HSR hub. Singapore is the want China HSR in its territory. Hanoi last node. More likely to happen. Does not link with India’s A A A A A A planned HSR. Uncertain. 5 6 7 8 9 A 10 11 HCM City Phnom Penh Bangkok KL SingaporeTranscontinental silk railroads may consolidate China as the center of Asian trade.
  • 10. - HSR does not create growth, but it polarizes growth. 0 + Air routes < 800km/ 3hrs lose ‘Rent-intensive’ activities like ‘Face-intensive’ activities like 80% of traffic manufacturing are indifferent. finance, education services will consolidate in big node cities. More tourists, less hotel nights HSR does not bring growth to growth-depressed areas. Medium-sized cities lose out to Economically unattractive big node cities. cities will lose activities to Marginal effects on housing and better cities. population growth. Qualifier: Studies based on mature HSR markets. China may be different. LCC that depend on Singapore- If Singapore’s economic Singapore consolidates into KL-BKK route will be affected. attractiveness is unchanged, ASEAN’s primary service hub. industrial activities remain. Mega events may have more Bangkok has the most to gain visitors, less hotel nights. E.g. There may not be a ‘diffusion’ of while KL may see hollowing out. stay in KL for F1 SGP-based workers into lower-cost Malaysia.Regional effects of HSR on industrial activities and services. China-ASEAN HSR lineSource: “High-speed rail: Lessons for policy makers from experiences abroad”, Mar 2010, Research Institute of Applied Economics, University of Barcelona
  • 11. For more information, please visit http://futures-group.net