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Sure fire Socio-demographics

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  • 1. Sure-fire socio-demographics:10 Insights on where to grow business
  • 2. GrowthStories Bringing you a flavour of business growth trends...in just 5 minutes A Futures Coaching initiative www.futurescoaching.com
  • 3. Growth formula Growth in working population x Gains in productivity Countries with young, expanding labour forces, which are becoming increasinglyefficient, will show the largest GDP growth
  • 4. productivity gainsThe scale of the opportunity for growth in productivity ismuch larger in developing countries than developed ones
  • 5. BRICs: size matters The 4 BRIC countries are home to 3 billionChina and India respectively have 4 times US populationBrazil (180Mn) and Russia (140Mn) are both bigger than Japan (125Mn)
  • 6. BRICs: urbanisationmattersAn estimated 260 million people could relocate to urban areas in China over the medium term: Chinese urbanisation may only be half way through Rural areas may become devoid of young people
  • 7. where will growthcome from?
  • 8. effects onconsumption Consumption in the BRICs will rise fourfold 2010-2025At $16 trillion spending will be bigger than the US marketChina alone, on conservative estimates, sees $10 trillion of consumer expenditure by 2025 (source: Goldman Sachs)
  • 9. where the action is By 2020, 70% of all cars will be bought by BRICsBy 2050, Chinese could own 2X as many cars as AmericansOther industries where BRICs will dominate: luxury goods, travel, tourism
  • 10. the new hierarchy Size of Economy, 2010 Size of Economy, 2050 US US China China Japan India Germany Japan France Brazil UK Russia Brazil UKSource: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2010 Source:Goldman Sachs forecasts
  • 11. weighing the next 11The next 11 largest populated emerging economies with strong growth potential Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Iran Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Philippines South Korea Turkey Vietnam (source: Goldman Sachs)
  • 12. growth in ethnic mix By 2045, American minorities will be in the majorityIn 2010, O&M formed OgilvyCulture to specialise in cross- cultural marketing Brazil has a highly integrated ethnic population North Korea, Iceland and Japan are some of the most ethnically pure nations
  • 13. Acknowledgement Many of these insights are drawn from the excellent new book, The Growth Map by Jim ONeill
  • 14. Working with Future Coaching Conference speeches on major trends - accelerating management awareness Workshopping trends – evaluating impacts on businesses or brands; future-proofing existing offers Brainstorming sessions – innovating to harness growth Reports on the future of sectors or industries – jumping ahead of the curve; achieving thought leadership; building in longevity Training for consumer insight teams – boosting internal futuring capabilities
  • 15. LONDON • PARIS Website: www.futurescoaching.comBlog: http://futurescoaching.typepad.com Email: chris@futurescoaching.com