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Unlocking new sources of growth Finding the peaks of new opportunity even in recession....

Unlocking new sources of growth Finding the peaks of new opportunity even in recession.

The kinship economy and
brand marketing How
brands need to re-think their
relationships with consumers
to become like family.

The future of the Euro
What happens after the eurocrisis? An update on our
Future Perspective report
from earlier this year.

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Future proof July 12 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Issue 8 | July 2012Welcome to FutureProof – The Futures Company’s regular briefing about current global strategic andconsumer issues with perspectives from our various international centres. Our purpose here is tobroaden horizons and share some of our bigger picture thinking with you. In this issue Unlocking new sources of growth Finding the peaks of new opportunity even in recession. The kinship economy and brand marketing How brands need to re-think their relationships with consum- ers to become like family. The future of the Euro What happens after the eu- rocrisis? An update on our Future Perspective report from earlier this year.FutureProof Digital edition contains embedded links
  • 2. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 2 FutureProofUnlocking new sources of growthBy Andrew Curry Growth and of consumers. It often accelerates New markets: people mostly soon to be fifteen, with the addition development are an existing shifts in values. It encourages in emerging markets, who have of India and Vietnam), only five have overarching focus of technological innovation. Recession is reasonable amounts of disposable maintained high growth rates throughbusiness. The climate for also a coiled spring, because recovery income for the first time. This group the middle-income transition andgrowth in the 21st century is will come eventually, sometimes includes the ‘emerging middle classes’ proceeded toward advanced countryalso changing, as resource helped by public investment or public in these markets. Opportunities in income levels of $20,000 per capitapressures push up costs, intervention. One of the things we these markets are more complex or above.” In a nutshell, bettingand businesses are more learn from the 1930s is that business and likely to be further away than is your entire growth strategy on theclosely scrutinised amid can create new dynamics of economic, generally believed. In particular the emerging markets is riskier than youchanging expectations social and technological change, and recent slowdown in BRIC markets may think.about their public and social reshape people’s views of the present be a trend rather than a blip. But theresponsibilities. and the future. short-term perspective is less certain. Changing values: shifting social values and behaviours create newAnd, of course, growth is harder to In our newly published Future According to Michael Spence and market spaces. Changes in the way wefind in difficult economic conditions, Perspective, Unlocking new sources Sandile Hlatshwayo, “The evidence work have, for example, led to a boomwhich in turn create difficult market of growth, we analyse where such we have from the postwar history in the neighbourhood café and, alongconditions. However, recession is sources of growth are likely to be suggests that the majority of countries with health concerns, created a multi-never uniform, and it always creates found, and how businesses can entering the middle-income transition billion-dollar market in pre-packagedthe potential for disruptive shifts in identify them in a structured manner. have slowed significantly or even salad. More recently, in the wake of thethe structure of markets and the We identify four such sources of stalled. Of the sustained high-growth recession, the United States beautyrelative income of different groups growth: cases in the postwar period (thirteen, business has boomed, in particular © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 3. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 3the nails market. Several trends are foundation technologies can take sustained. But it also means that it isat work here: the so-called post-crash New sources of growth decades to reach market volume. valuable, in doing such work, to take‘lipstick effect’; the emergence of new that are likely to prove The second is that social behaviours a broader, more holistic view of your‘nail artists’ who showcase innovative around the technology can already operating environment and to look most durable arework; endorsement by young be seen among lead users; it takes deliberately for growth platforms thatwomen celebrities and stars; sector- those where multiple far less time for existing behaviours are supported by multiple dimensionsspecific technical innovation (such trends combine to transfer to the early majority than of change.as magnetic polish and nail polish to develop from scratch. Techniquesstrips); and perhaps a post-feminist that help to get the timing right are Business modelssensibility in which nails are a form of in these markets; production facilities discussed in the full Unlocking newself-expression — whereas lipstick is and distribution channels are already sources of growth report. Business models describe the ways ina form of objectification. Such value in place. which materials and information arechanges are more likely to create new These four sources of growth can all, transformed into value, for companiessources of growth when they travel in The main barrier to success is your on their own create new opportunities.groups rather than alone. business’s mental models of the But they are most dynamic, and market, as demonstrated by the disruptive, when they combine toShifting money: within richer way in which older consumers have shape new business models in amarkets, money moves between been a long-term blindspot for many category or a sector, taking value fromdifferent consumers, sometimes marketing departments. existing players (for example, in thequite quickly. In the United States, way that iTunes has captured valuefor example, the financial crisis has Emerging technologies: new that used to belong to high street orcreated a new group of the ‘working technologies have long been identified main street music retailers). Similarly,old,’ who are still earning and spending. as a source of new growth. Some mobile and cell technology makesSimilarly, as we describe in our foresee a boom in technology-based possible the pay-per-use car market.eurozone report (see the article later opportunities in the coming years.in this FutureProof) there are good But as with comedy, the secret is In the rest of this article we look ateconomic reasons to believe that always in the timing, for technology- how to analyse if your market is ripeas the euro crisis is resolved there led innovation can take decades to for disruption. But if there is onewill be a surge of women coming reach the market. In terms of sources message here, it is that focusinginto paid work. Companies tend to of growth across an innovation cycle on a single area (betting, say, onunderestimate such opportunities. there are two straightforward criteria. technology or emerging markets)Analysis by The Futures Company The first is that it has to be a ‘follower’ is not often a successful strategy.suggests that a such a move into paid technology (such as the Web which Instead, the new sources of growthwork could be worth ¤45 bn a year, sits on an established technology that are likely to prove most durableor more than 2.5% of Italy’s current with an installed base), rather than are those where multiple trendsGDP. The companies best placed to a ‘foundation’ technology (such combine. Such opportunities are alsobenefit are typically already present as the internet). The reason is that more likely to be both substantial and © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 4. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 4 model shift before the moment. The To take advantage of Futures Company has identified a set growth opportunities, of questions – its Pressure GaugeSM Where is the opportunity in How can you tell change is coming What can you do about it? tool – to help to do this. you need to think your category or industry? New sources of growth in your category or industry? New business models Defining and exploring the opportunity like an outsider, to 1 Attitudes and behaviours How are consumers’ attitudes, step outside of the values and behaviours changing? received wisdom of Has there been a shift in New markets your colleagues and underlying values? New money Pressure Gauge your competitors and 2 Technology tool to assess Innovation opportunities look differently at your Are there technologies that New technologies disruption have reached reasonable levels marketplace. of penetration in an interested New values consumer segment? What are the Supporting analysis Primary qualitative and relevant technologies? (This isn’t deepens insight into quantitative research “Seven sources links between values, and modelling to exploreand for their customers. They are always obvious.) of innovation” technology and business and assess size and as checklist models in your category speed of opportunitysometimes hard to discern, even by 3 New practices Source: The Futures Companyexperts. In commoditised markets, What are leading-edge users,competitors tend to be competing communities of interest, andaround the same business model. entrepreneurs doing that is If most or all of these factors can be Do users have sufficientIt can take a whole new business different from the mainstream? seen in the sector, then it suggests motivation to change habits andmodel to reach new sources of value it is almost certainly primed for practices? The cost of 4 Pain points business model change. It is worthand new sources of growth. It can “unlearning” existing behaviour is What do leading-edge users find spelling out why this is. Takenbe hard to see through the existing often one of the biggest barriers costly, difficult or time-consuming together, they test the followingassumptions about the market to to change. about these new practices? questions:make this leap. But when a companydoes change the business model in a 5 Institutions under strain Taken together in a systematic way,category, it seems very obvious with Do industry critics, or experts or Is there a deep shift going on in they make you look at your marketshindsight. Think: Walmart in the US analysts, see problems with the the underlying conditions which and categories through the eyes ofretail sector, IKEA in furniture retailing; way the sector works at present? shape the sector or category? others, asking new questions aboutor Dell selling PCs, or Apple and the them, rather than bringing your 6 Business models Is the sector or category alreadymusic business. current assumptions to bear. Who benefits most from the being primed for change by current business model? Are entrepreneurs and users?It is possible to identify the providers significantly advantagedcharacteristics of sectors or compared to the consumers?categories that are ripe for business © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 5. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 5 Finally, this connects with a more typical phase in which you define Changing values: “A Good Man” and explore the opportunity, using In our work researching an innovation opportunity in the Russian primary research and modelling to assess softer and harder aspects of market, we identified a huge change in people’s values towards the opportunity. It is also possible integrity, honesty and how success is being defined. Perhaps to use the Pressure GaugeSM tool to wind-tunnel innovation ideas that are this was not a surprise, given the present political context, but already in your pipeline. it was notable how far this had extended into people’s everyday Conclusion attitudes. As a result, we developed a brand philosophy for a new product – since launched – under the theme of “codes of a goodIn the full Unlocking new sources To take advantage of growthof growth future perspective, we opportunities, you need to think like man,” capturing the zeitgeist of the Russian emerging middle class.show the model applied to some an outsider, to step outside of the (Yannis Kavounis)innovations, one past, one still received wisdom of your colleaguesevolving. At one end of the funnel, and your competitors and looka structured scan of issues helps differently at your marketplace. As thisbuild a picture of the landscape, and Future Perspective shows, that canmore particularly, helps to identify mean looking at it through the eyes ofthe wrinkles in the landscape where consumers (and not just your existing To download this Futureopportunities might lie. To find new customers), or of lead users who may Perspective in full and browsesources of growth, you need to be be reinventing your products and how our other free thought piecessystematic, and to look beyond the they are used, or of a start-up, or of a and publications, please visitboundaries of your business. new entrant from another sector. www.thefuturescompany. com/ page/free_thinkingThe second phase looks at those There are always new sources ofopportunities through a lens that growth out there. Now you can identifyallows you to assess how large they them in a systematic and organisedare, and how imminent they might be, manner.using the Pressure GaugeSM model andother tools. http://www.thefuturescompany.com/ file_depot/0-10000000/0-10000/1/ folder/2982/Future_Perspective_ (Unlocking_new_sources_of_ growth)_05_31_12.pdf © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 6. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 6NEWS The Futures Company is delighted to announce its partnership with the 2012 World Future Trends Summit —a gathering of global visionaries sharing the trends and insights that will have the greatest impact on the future of business in the US, Asia Pacific, Latin America and EMEA. It takes place in Miami, USA, 15-17 October. We’ll bring you exclusive previews and content via FutureProof, our blog and Twitter ahead of the event. Plus our clients can save 20% by registering with code FT12TFC. http://www.iirusa.com/futuretrends/home.xmlThe Futures Company has won two prestigious awards for our client work.Last week we picked up the AURA (The Association of Users of Research The future of futures: Head of Futures, Andrew Curry hasAgencies) award for agency with the most Innovative Thinking. The Futures edited an e-book, The Future of Futures, which marks theCompany was nominated by one of our clients, who said “We know that Association of Professional Futurists’ 10th anniversary. Andrew isThe Futures Company can always be relied upon to provide strong thought a Board member of the APF and a member of the team wholeadership, clear and actionable implications and creativity in unlocking issues wrote the report “Understanding Best Practice in Strategicand bringing their learnings alive in order to engage our teams.” Having described Futures” for the British government Cabinet Office in 2001, which we republishedour insight’s impact on several global and European initiatives, our client as a Future Perspective late last year.concluded “Overall, the Futures Company team deserves recognition for thequality of their work, their innovative approach to addressing business issues, Sustaining Sustainability: Our Head of Global Clients &their creativity in delivering compelling outputs and for their real investment in Strategy, Lloyd Burdett, presented at the Sustainable Brandsbuilding a partnership.” Conference, a leading global conference for sustainability, brand strategy & innovation communities. Lloyd focused on our In the recent Kantar Measure of Inspiration Awards, latest thinking on “how to sustain sustainability” (http://www. The Futures Company won the most inspirational piece thefuturescompany.com/file_depot/0-10000000/0-10000/1/folder/2982/ of client work category with a multi-media consumer and Future_Perspectives_(How_to_Sustain_sustainability).pdf), and fed into a shopper trend program. The custom-made, Flash-based panel discussion on how to position a sustainable brand for future success. The micro-site includes video and a variety of workshop tools and sustainable retail presentation was another highlight, with insight presented by templates, which the client said “has inspired the business by Gwen Morrison from The Store, WPP’s retail knowledge hub (www.wpp.com/providing practical, relevant content in a highly engaging and user-friendly way” . wpp/about/whatwedo/store), and a fascinating segment by online retailerThis project was also voted the overall winner of the Kantar Grand Prix for Zappos about their business culture, values, famed service culture andthe single most inspirational entry across all categories. The Measure of commitment to sustainability. This is best expressed in their commitment toInspiration judge, Kim Dedeker, said “The Futures Company has demonstrated revitalizing their local community in downtown Las Vegas (www.that they are on the cutting edge of bringing learning to life—reinventing and downtownproject. com), an excellent example of a company sticking to theircreating engagement to increase business impact.” values and commitment to the community in which they live and operate. © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 7. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 7The kinship economy and brand marketingBy Walker Smith The power of kinship The rising importance of connections locus of value, consumer engagement The rising importance is the fuel that will brings kinship into play. When must be established and maintained fire the foreseeable relationships rule, the ones that in a different way. What, then, makes of connections bringsfuture of commerce, culture, matter most are the gold standard for kinship? There are many things, of kinship into play.creed, and indeed the whole for brands to emulate. Those are course, but three things in particularcharacter and economy of family relationships, and that makes must be central to brand marketing in This shift kicks thelife itself. marketing a matter of kinship. an era powered by kinship. old idea of brand relationships offSocial networks, in particular, This shift kicks the old idea of brand 1 Kinship is a matter of bloodlines.have put kinship on the relationships off the stage. For brand For consumers to adopt brands, the stage.radar of brand marketers. marketers, the defining difference of they must first claim brands asYet social networks are kinship is that the relationships people members of their family. Brandslittle more than a high-tech want are connections with other cannot lay claim to this; only brands. So getting consumers toreprise of the deepest human people not with brands. For brands to consumers can do it. If they make this claim is harder to doinstinct – connecting with get close, they must facilitate people don’t, then brands are outsiders, directly in one-to-one exchangeothers. This is a telling irony, relationships, not deepen brand which makes retention, loyalty with consumers. Instead, it mustas it points directly to what’s relationships. and recommendations both less be done indirectly, like a familyahead. likely and costlier. The challenge member focused on the greater Certainly, people will continue to adopt is that consumers are focused wellbeing of the family unit. This brands, just as they always have. But more on relationships with other is why most brands have had with kinship in ascendance as the people than relationships with trouble with social media. It’s less © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 8. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 8 about blowing your own horn and utter transparency of intentions, sacrifice. The greater good of the Walker Smith is more about being the background operations and accountability. family unit is the most powerful the Executive music for the great time people Consumers will not feel kinship spur to pro-social sacrifice. Brands Chairman of The are having with one another. Do with brands that hide what they’re have to give of themselves in this Futures Company, that well, and every time people doing or hold something back. way, putting the broader lifestyle based in Atlanta. connect, they will want you around. Consumers may still do business and personal interests of But keep interrupting people to with such brands, but it will cost consumers ahead of their own promote your brand, and people brands more to get them and transactional and commercial “Clearly, the marketplace is changing. will tune you out. will expose brands to the risk of interests. Making money is fine, But much of what seems fresh censure and switching when the but consumers have come to and new these days is nothing but2 Kinship means intimacy. Family spotlight finds these dark corners. expect more of brands than that. old wine in a new bottle. So in the members see each other in their Consumers want kinship not just second half of my career, I’ve become most private moments. They walk 3 Kinship entails altruism. Generally commerce, and that means a determined to not fall yet again for around in their underwear, if you speaking, family ties are the ones whole new dynamic of putting the things that aren’t really new and will. For brands to be part of the for which people will make the relationships first. concentrate intensely understanding family, they must be willing to biggest sacrifices, bending over better what’s truly different about First published in Branding Strategy the changing marketplace. For open themselves up like this as backwards and even giving of something to be truly different, it has well. More practically, this means themselves to the point of self- Insider, June 2012 to change operating models not refine advertising copy. Kinship embodies this sort of shift – from business models based on brand relationships to business models based on people relationships. It points us to new metrics of measurement and marketing performance and to new approaches to innovation. It is a notion that pinpoints where premium value will be found in the future.” © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 9. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 9The future of the EuroBy Andrew Curry and Matthew Lynn Earlier this year, The The thinking in the report was Is a Eurozone may survive if it can Scenario Futures Company underpinned by three central ideas: 1 significant proportion address structural issues of debt published a Future cancelled? YESPerspective on The future Financial crises do get resolved NO Weaker economies moved to ‘sudo’ to permit devaluationof the eurozone which tried eventually, by rebalancing betweento look past the day-to-day debtor and creditor countries Dual Euro survives until attacked by Scenario 2 Do countries financial marketsdynamics of the crisis to how sign up for the non-core Euro? YESEurope’s economy would Debt, including debt held by thebe reshaped over the next banks, gets written off, in larger or NO Weaker economies default, leave the Eurodecade once the crisis was smaller amounts Twin-track’ Europe’ core and Scenarioresolved. 3 Does the core non-core members Euro area This is a political process as well as maintain cohesion? YES an economic process, both within countries and between them NO Core economies start to fragment because of differential recoveries Scenario 4 Does the EU Parallel currency system The scenarios we developed (see maintain the Euro as figure) were “path-based” scenarios a trade currency? YES based on the way these issues might NO be resolved, based on analysis of the Return to national Scenario outcomes of previous crisis and of the history and politics of the eurozone. currencies 5 © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 10. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 10 This is a landscape that could shift decisively over a single innovation cycle.To summarise, it told a story about the Europe we anticipated that banks One of the tools we used to analyse politics of international institutions,way in which debt was managed down would be taken into public control or the future of the euro was the ‘default and the health or not of the local(in an orderly way within the eurozone, ownership as a way of managing down landscape’ seen here, which sets , economy compared to the futureor not), and about alternative and writing off the levels of debt in out the conflict lines around the ability of the country to borrow oncurrency structures for Europe. national economies. currency within individual nations: capital markets. In effect, conflictsThese included scenarios in which the national and local politics against the play out along two dimensions: theeurozone survived as is, one in which split between economic and financialit becomes the fiat currency for only agendas on the one hand, and politicalfor the European core countries, and a agendas on the other; and the splitscenario in which it became a parallel FINANCE Ability to raise EXTERNAL between internal pressures (driven by fit sts t Ex in nce itu ne co ou funds on bond te sti o tio be ic abcurrency. falling incomes and shrinking social in nt tu n n flu in market d m ts s of tio po s e st protection) and external pressures an o n on e fin na liti ec gum an l calSome of the conclusions from the (the need to be able to borrow, to ce r Ascenarios were striking. In particular, participate internationally, and so on).we projected a post-crisis Europe All of these conflicts have been seen inwith a number of characteristics. High levels of debt Influence of Greece in the first half of this year, andItaly, in particular, but also other and de-leveraging international and can be seen clearly in both the rapid drive down financial institutionsMediterranean countries, experienced income levels on governments rise of the radical party Syriza and thea resurgence in growth, partly just as brinkmanship both inside and outsidea result of the debt load being lifted of Greece. A d o-e su in l tr ith ca rt om co refrom their economies. The German un w liti ic so p ul es no s co icts po ci re at ti meconomy started to look a little more We also observed that debt is more l l io c ic nf na y n co terlike the British, with money going into fungible than it appears: much of of Emergence of s Inthe property and the services sector. political opposition the Greek debt has already beenPoland was seen as a long-term INTERNAL to austerity POLITICS marked down significantly from its measuresfinancial winner, because of its location face value, while other countries haveand its low debt exposure. And across also used the notion of ‘odious debt’ © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 11. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 11 Matthew Lynn is founder of Strategy Economics and a columnist for Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek andas a renegotiation tool. This may yet Property prices grew by 5.5% last http://www.thefuturescompany.com/ Bloomberghappen in Greece. One of the emerging year and continue to rise. file_depot/0-10000000/0-10000/1/themes of the past few months has folder/2982/Future_ “Two years ago, I started work on abeen the extent of Greek spending Economists have increasingly Perpectives_(The_future_of_the_ book for Wiley called Bust: Greece,on arms, much of it with French and started to talk up Poland’s eurozone)_021712.pdf The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis. Half-way through I ventured aGerman defence contractors, with prospects, noticing that it is the new subtitle: ‘Greece, the Sovereignquestions about whether this can be one European economy that has Debt Crisis and the End of the Euro.’justified. avoided recession and that it has The publisher looked at me like I’d just low debt levels. suggested adding a chapter on donkeyThe economic story is also starting to racing. In 2010, arguing that the Greekshape along the lines outlined in the Most tellingly, there is increasing crisis was the first step towards thereport. public intervention in the banking demise of the single currency was sector. In Spain, Bankia has been considered eccentric at best, and In Germany, consumer spending is nationalised after asking the barking mad at worst. rising – a necessary step towards government for a €19 billion Now the view that what we could be rebalancing the European bailout to cover property losses. witnessing is the end of the euro is economy – and there are also pretty much a mainstream opinion. strong signs of a property boom. Clearly, for the present, it is the day-to- Of course, that is still not certain. day issues which shape the eurocrisis: The euro may well survive. There are a whole range of different possible another day, another summit. But outcomes. But one thing seems from a business perspective this is a definite. It is not likely to survive in landscape that could shift quickly, even its current form. There will either be decisively, over the lifetime of a single major institutional change. Or else innovation cycle. The winners will be To download this Future some countries will leave. Either way, it those businesses that have picked is the most fascinating economic story Perspective in full and through the ways in which the crisis of our times - and one that is going browse our other free could unfold and have developed to shape the way European economy thought pieces and develops for a decade or more. strategies which enable them to publications, please visit respond more quickly than their The subtitle, incidentally, stayed the www.thefuturescompany. competitors. way it was. But now I rather wish I had com/page/free_thinking changed it. “ © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 12. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 12STREETSCAPING TAKING THE TEMPERATURE “At the moment, there is a feeling of uncertainty in Argentina, since the country is undergoing important tax rises. This issue is expected to get worse for the next few months, and this is thought to affect all social classes. Socially, nevertheless, there is a positive mood, meaning that people are more involved in social issues, more positive on their capacity to change things and more active in pursuing their goals.” – Julia in Argentina “People are pretty worried right now about the economy and the state of the EU. There is a sense of despair in that the recession has lasted for a lot longer than expected. Despite the fact that a lot of Irish people have emigrated to places like Canada andCultural Collage from our global network of Australia , many have stayed and have plenty to be optimistic about because the best art and expression comes out of hardCultural Streetscapers times. This is a great time in Dublin culturally. Music and art are flourishing.” – John in IrelandThis month we launched a new resource for our GlobalMONITOR clients. Cultural Collage is a monthly round up of “This year people are feeling very uncertain. The whole countrythe latest insights collected from our global network of Cultural is experiencing the economic downturn. The stock market fellStreetscapers presenting local intelligence, cultural context to the lowest ever, the real estate crashed, fuel price increasedand marketplace examples, all in an authentic local voice. by roughly 15%, all contributing to very high inflation with CPICultural Collage helps clients quickly to get under the skin of reaching nearly 20%. Of course, as employees, we must feelmarkets across the world. Here we have a few highlights from worried about the economic status of the country as well asthe latest issue. Our cultural streetscapers have also been that of our family. The economic crisis causes social problems,‘taking the temperature’ – assessing the mood of consumers especially in urban areas.” – Tuan in Vietnamin their country. © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 13. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 13STREETSCAPING FROM THE BLOGHere come the Digital Dependents! Vinci, a Ungreening a generation? by Ashraf Choudhury. “Thecollaborative learning company, has developed the first Futures Company has quite strong views on Millennials. Sotablet designed specifically for infants and toddlers.Designed by a mom, emphasizing education and safety as when I noticed an academic paper (opens pdf) from Sankey features. This product is indicative of consumers embracing Diego State University, which argued – on the basis of atechnology at every stage of life- from cradle to grave. 30-year tracking study – that Millennials (the generation bornThink about: The integration of technology into every aspect of life is in the late ’80s or so) are much less politically and environmentally engagedrewiring consumers lifestyles. Consumers will increasingly expect more than previous generations – it seemed to be fuel for the fire.”seamless interaction with companies across all platforms so that they can To read more: http://blog.thefuturescompany.com/2012/05/04/choose what works best for them. ungreening-a-generation/Low levels of trust in business have pushed consumers to Rethinking online research, by Pen Stuart. “As consultantsseek verification and proof of companies’ claims. Emiliano, a and researchers try to understand evolving consumerhotel restaurant in São Paulo, Brazil recently held a market day behaviour, we quite often use online survey research. But thein which they used a familiar concept, the street fair, to connect online world has moved on, while online research is stillconsumers with the suppliers behind the hotel’s restaurant, trapped by the legacy of the forms and questionnaires of faceoffering tangible proof of quality and authenticity. to face research. So, like all areas which have got stuck, it is crying out forThink about: Consumers will expect proof-points along the entire product some innovation. “supply chain. Tangible evidence is the only way to earn and retain consumertrust. To read more: http://blog.thefuturescompany.com/2012/04/05/rethinking- online-research/Wells Fargo Advisors, USA was the first US industry to offer Megachange? Megamistake! Ian Christie and AndrewAccredited Domestic Partnership Advisor or ADPA designation. Curry write: “Reading the Economist’s book Megachange: TheTheir advisors are specially trained in the key challenges facing World in 2050, edited by Dan Franklin and John Andrews,domestic partners, providing tailored services specifically fortheir needs. Their ads, both in image and copy, reflect a more brings an increasingly heavy heart. The lens they turn onnuanced understanding of sexual identity in the US today. 2050 is a surprisingly narrow one. But it’s one of the sad facts about futures work that there’s always a ready market, not to mentionThink about: President Barack Obama’s recent support ofmarriage equality has made LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual lucrative speaking opportunities, for those who say everything’s going to turn& Transgender) rights an even hotter topic in the US. out fine. “Mainstream products and services are increasingly having to respond to, and To read more: http://blog.thefuturescompany.com/2012/04/11/align with, evolving representations of sexual identity. megachange-megamistake/ © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com
  • 14. Issue 8 | July 2012 Page 14To subscribe to FutureProof please Editor: Andrew Curryvisit http://www.thefuturescompany.com/page/FutureProof/ Production: Karen KidsonComments, feedback and requests to unsubscribe should be sent to futureproof@thefuturescompany.com Design: Tania Conrad & Augustus NewsamFutureProof is published by The Futures Company under a Creative Commons Licence: some rights reserved © The Futures Company 2012. FutureProof is published by The Futures Company at 6 More London Place, Tooley Street, London SE1 2QY. Copying, redistribution and display is permitted under a Creative Commons licence for non-commercial purposes, provided articles are properly attributed. Please notify us of any such re-use by emailing futureproof@thefuturescompany.com