Future Foundation May 2013 conference  highlights
 

Future Foundation May 2013 conference highlights

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Highlights, data and ideas from the world's leading consumer insight and trends specialist. Trends include Beyond 2020 and the future of social media, Brainstorms at Bedtime & the redefinition of work ...

Highlights, data and ideas from the world's leading consumer insight and trends specialist. Trends include Beyond 2020 and the future of social media, Brainstorms at Bedtime & the redefinition of work life balance, the internet of things and the Myth of Consumer Protest. Get in touch with Karen Canty for more.

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Future Foundation May 2013 conference  highlights Future Foundation May 2013 conference highlights Presentation Transcript

  • Where The Truth LiesFuture Foundation nVision client conferencePresentation HighlightsMay 2013
  • Smart TrendsTop Five Themes for the Short TermBarry Clark, Account DirectorMay 2013
  • 3Less resource to protect consumersTop Five Themes for the Short TermSource: National Audit OfficeSource: Which? Press release, 11th April 2012EnforcementSpend2012“...a shockingly ill-conceived and under-resourced plan from Government that looksset to vandalise a system of consumerprotection that is admired worldwide...”Peter Vicary-Smith, CEO, Which?£247mEnforcementSpend2014 £140m
  • 4Why are we talking about this in 2013?Top Five Themes for the Short TermSource: Population Projections, National Statistics/nVision, UK, 201202004006008001,0001,2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80AgeIndividuals2012
  • 5Annuity horibilisTop Five Themes for the Short TermIncome Gilt yields2008 £6,435 4.51%2013 £4,836 2.47%Source: This Is Money, 2013 / Male aged 65 £100,000 purchase, guaranteed 5 years and level payments
  • 6Gen Y4G: Risky Business?Top Five Themes for the Short TermSource: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013200943%201353%“I am prepared to take significantrisks to have what I want...”
  • 7Having a drink in the last weekTop Five Themes for the Short TermSource: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)2005MenWomen2011MenWomen72%66%57%54%
  • 8Increasingly short measuresTop Five Themes for the Short TermSource: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)2005MenWomen2011MenWomenHeavy drinking(8 units + single day)72%66%57%54%23%18%15%12%
  • 9What drives sobriety?Top Five Themes for the Short TermSource: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013I amtoo fatI spendtoo muchI drinktoo much1 in 5men2 in 5 1 in 3
  • Brainstorms at bedtimeKatie Toll, Head of ResearchMay 2013
  • 11Bedtime is being redefinedBrainstorms at bedtimeSource: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 2,400 tablet owners aged 16+, GB, 201361%Use a tabletin the bedroom87%16-24s“iPlayer usage, for streaming, peaks about10pm – just a little later from TV. Butinterestingly, iPlayer on the iPhone peaksat about midnight. So people are clearlygoing to bed with their iPhone andwatching in bed.”Anthony Rose, Former Head of BBC iPlayer
  • 12Surge in usage of devices at bedtimeBrainstorms at bedtimeSource: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 1,960 tablet and smartphone owners aged 16+, GB, 2013At which times of day do yougenerally use the following devices?22.00onwards16.00-18.0014.00-16.0012.00-14.009.00-12.007.00-9.0014.1%19.2%33.0%37.6%46.8%55.9%49.7%64.1%37.9%41.6%51.8%43.0%38.1%33.2%52.1%27.3%26.9%27.2%57.4%25.6%30.7%28.9%55.6%22.3%17.1%15.6%61.5%24.9%18.00-22.00
  • 13Reality of the work-life mergeBrainstorms at bedtimeSource: Labour Market Statistics, National Statistics/nVision | Base: all aged 16+, UK, 2012Q4 1992: 38.1Q4 2012: 37.3Average full-timeworking hours“It’s now 9.30pm and I am workingon my computer, simply because itfits in better with my dailyschedule and gives me a lot moreflexibility. I don’t think I actuallydo more work, simply I can do itwhen it pleases me or I feel like it”Female, 67, Spain
  • 14Constant connectivityBrainstorms at bedtimeSource: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013Tablet ownerNon-tablet ownerCheck workemails in bedCheck personalemails in bed17%7%30%18%Browse theinternet in bed32%18%68% of UK 25-34s never turn their mobile phone off“Technology has definitely resulted in people doing more work in theirfree time, for example I check emails on the bus on the way to work inorder to have some of them cleared by the time I get to the office.”Female, 27, London, UK
  • 15Brainstorms at Bedtime – Final thoughtsBrainstorms at bedtime We feel we work longer hours and are under increased time pressure. Increasingly we feel a self-imposed obligation to respond immediately toemail / digital communications – both work and social.Social norm: Working hours and time pressure remained constant over past decade. We are struggling to work out how to manage the work-life merge andwhen we’re supposed to do what.Reality: Find ways to manage constant connectivity. Choose when to engage actively v passively with technology. Find the perfect blend of work and personal life.Resolution:
  • The Power of QuietMeabh Quoirin, Managing DirectorMay 2013
  • 17% agree or agree strongly | 2013“Sometimes I feel the need to get away from phonecalls, emails and text messages and switch off”The Power of QuietSource: nVision Research | Base: 2,200 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 201360%Baby boomers58%Gen Y60%Gen X65%DifferenceGender1%Wealth0.5%Rural vs. Inner city2%Networked1%
  • 18“I often need to switch off completely/escape...”The Power of QuietSource: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013Check work emails in bed53% 63% 64% 64%Never Occasionally Regularly Every day“Silence is definitely seen as hipand trendy, but only becausebusy people ‘need’ it.”Female, 23
  • 19Crave escapeQuiet productionThe Power of Quiet65%Strongly56%Moderately34%NeverNeed a hobby I loveCrave escapeBe thebest66%Be morecreative73%Find moreexcitement73%Strongneed to...
  • 20The Power of Quiet – Final thoughtsThe Power of Quiet Quiet is critical. In increasing demand to balance our busy lives. It’s aspirational, associated with luxury and in short supply.Social norm: It’s a fundamental demand for everyone. It’s not needed because we’re doing too much. We want it so that we can do more. Different things.Reality: We can have it all. Just not like the 90s. Use it as a route to self-improvement & better performance. Quiet is fashionable. And it’s here to stay.Resolution:
  • .THNGKerry Rheinstein, Account DirectorMay 2013
  • 22.THNGCisco 2012 The Internet of Things2003 2010 2015 2020500 millionconnecteddevices6.3 billionpeople 7.6 billionpeople50 billionconnecteddevices
  • 23Saving time with technology.THNGSource: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 201212639Totalpopulation47%
  • 24Interested in networked service(smart fridge, self-parking car).THNGSource: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012101010101101011010101010001001011010101010100100111101011010101010110100100101010101011010110101010100010010110101010101001001111010Total Population55%
  • 25.THNG – Final thoughts.THNG Technology can sometimes create unnecessary complexity We believe we understand the potential of .THNG, turning dumbdevices smartSocial norm: But, we are actually only beginning to grasp the potential of .THNG Networked devices have the potential to be life game changersReality: Companies will have to understand and utilise the potential => invitationfor innovation Technology hold the answers? More on this during the nVitro scanResolution:
  • Forecasting for the medium termBritain: a rag doll forever tossed by global forces?Richard Nicholls, Editor, nVisionMay 2013
  • 27Sideways (ish)Forecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, UK, 201390%92%94%96%98%100%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real GDP, indexed topre-recession maximum
  • 28Inflation is too high and earnings growth is too lowForecasting for the medium termSource: National Statistics/nVision 20130%2%4%6%8%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Earnings growth (nominal)Inflation (CPI)
  • 29Where the inflation liesForecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 201311%17%20%30%12%-8%10%13%17%27%32%46%30%12%45%52%TotalTransportAlcoholic drinks & tobaccoElectricity, gas, fuelFood and non-alc. drinksCommunicationsEducationInsuranceUKEurozoneTotal increase inprice level, 2007 to2012, selectedcategories
  • 30Corporate Reawakening – a medium term driver?Forecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 2013200710.9%2008-0.2%2009-14.4%2010-0.4%20113.1%20124.2%20133.6%20145.2%20156.9%20167.0%20176.3%20183.9% 20192.7%20202.6%% growth in real privatesector investment
  • 31The Productivity PuzzleForecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 2013 Why is unemployment so moderate andGDP performance so weak? Not due to labour hoarding - jobcreation has been high. Neither is it explained by economicinactivity / part-time work. Fall in real wages is a factor. Misallocation of capital is another. There could be under-reporting of GDP.In some sectors (construction, transport)industry surveys are more positive thanofficial statistics. Upward revisions to GDP data arepossible.
  • 327%8%8%8%10%11%12%14%16%25%TotalHotels and accommodationPurchase of vehiclesFoodNon-electronic major durablesHousehold appliancesCommunicationsMisc. recreational goodsClothing and footwearComputers, cameras, etc.Spending growthForecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 2013Spendinggrowthforecast2016 vs. 2013,in constant prices
  • 33The regional pictureForecasting for the medium termSource: National Statistics/nVision, 201367%72%66%75%69%75%70%70%71%71%75%70%Employment rateAll aged 16-64
  • 34Other distributional patternsForecasting for the medium term Income distribution: It is hard for spending cuts to avoidhitting the poorer harder. Some high-skilled sectors likely to seegrowth (high-tech, professional services). Age distribution: The young face special pressures : highunemployment, education fees, highhouse prices, rising rents... ...and many need to turn to their Boomer-generation parents for greater support. Older generation: high wealth vs. weakannuities.
  • 35An export-led recovery... but it didn’t lastForecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 201320081%2009-8%20106%20115%2012-0.2%2013-0.3%20143%20154%20165%Growth in exports in real terms
  • 36Central forecastsForecasting for the medium termSource: Oxford Economics/nVision, 20132013 2014 2015 2016GDP growth 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8%Consumer spending growth 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%Inflation 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6%Unemployment rate 8.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.4%In the short term: a slow consumer recovery.In the medium term: moderate growth, but thisdepends on a number of factors...
  • 37The ProductivityPuzzle:Is the economy lessweak than we think it is?Exports:Can the UK export moreto emerging markets?Austerity:Will it be softened in theUK (and elsewhere)?Saving/spending:A fall in the saving ratio(and a rise inconfidence) would helpCommodity prices:Inflation depends ondomestic & externalfactorsStrength ofadvanced markets:Eurozone, US, JapanWhat will medium term growth depend on?Forecasting for the medium termImages cc : Horia Varlan, Jed Sullivan, Images_of_Money, 401(K) 2013, KevinLallier, openDemocracy
  • The Uses of Celebrity CultureParimal Makwana, Editor nVision UKMay 2013
  • 39Celebrity culture: more and more intimateThe Uses of Celebrity CultureSource: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013nVision Qualitative Research 2013“With celebrity culture today it’s almost as ifcelebrities are our friends, or relatives –that’s how often we see pictures of them.”Female, 23, London“Celebrities shouldgive up their right toindividual privacy”48%
  • 40familiarity“Of course if you see a familiar face in an advertyou pay more attention since it is a bit likeseeing a friend.” Female, 23, UKfascination“I think it is a form of escapism, a little likewatching a soap opera.” Female, 27, UKemulation“We are led to believe that these women areperfect and that we should try to be like them.”Female, 27, UKaspiration“It could be suggested that some celebrityfigures influence me and my friends’ lives, oftenserving as inspiration to us.” Male, 34, UKThe Uses of Celebrity CultureCelebrity influence: multiple levelsnVision Qualitative Research 2013
  • 41SummaryThe Uses of Celebrity Culture We don’t really care what famous people do nor are we reallyinfluenced by themSocial norm: Celeb-watching is a national pastime Beyond our gleeful fascination celebrity inspires usReality: Celebrity influence has range: fun/familiar to trendsetting Get closer: authentic narratives strengthen the iconicinfluence of celebrities Move with celebrity culture: it is an adaptable beastResolution:
  • Nick Chiarelli, Key Account DirectorMay 2013An update on maximising
  • 43Consumers feel they ought to maximise(and be seen maximising)An update on maximising51%I really/somewhatenjoy talking aboutproducts /services Ihave recently boughtat a really good price“These days you feelslightly stupid if you turnup to Zizzi, or PizzaExpress, or Prezzo or anyof those chains without avoucher or a code.You can just imagine thewaiters thinking how crazyyou are to be paying thefull price.”Female, aged 47, Surrey
  • 44Sometimes consumers deliberatelyopt not to maximiseSource: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013Indulgence61%Its really important that I can treatmyself when I wantLuxury31%prepared to pay full price for goodcustomer serviceConvenience74% of mumsare interested in a home deliveryservice which brings the groceries tomy door at precisely the time I preferAuthenticity53%I would rather buy somethinghandcrafted than mass-producedAn update on maximising
  • 45An update on maximising – Final thoughtsAn update on maximising Maximising is becoming tech-enabled second nature to today’s savvyand hyper rational shopper.Social norm: Not all purchases are (or will ever be) maximised. Maximising involves a strong emotional component. It is in danger of becoming consumers’ default expectation. Algorithms will further distance consumers from the joy of maximising.Reality: Spotting a maximiser mindset in-store will be key. Bring back the thrill of the huntResolution:
  • The Myth of ProtestChristophe Jouan CEOMay 2013
  • 47Strongly agreeConsumer radicalism – Driven by whom?The Myth of Protest“Companies shouldbe penalised forfailing to care forthe environment”“British people today shouldbe more angry about highbonuses paid to City ofLondon bankers”Gen Y Gen X Baby boomers48%37%54%18-24s201318%200922%200726%201319%201348%
  • 48Safety & SecurityThe (strong) need to do something dangerousRules &regulations% in favour ofincreasedregulationSo what is society about?The Myth of Protest8%200120042007 201120137%6% 6%16-24 years old19%13%201120135%BabyboomersGen XGen Y“A pregnant woman found smoking in a publicplace should be given a caution by a police officer”31%45% 20%70%
  • 49The Myth of Protest – Final thoughts People have become very angry. They are increasingly willing to engage and protest. Brands that incur the wrath of consumers will suffer badly.Social norm: There is some real anger about some issues...but NO real sign ofradicalism and protest on a big scale. Many campaigns local in scope & therefore niche in interest. Gen Y least likely to engage beyond ‘pop radicalism’.Reality: Need for CSR beyond hygiene factors? Pop radical – rebellion within a ‘safe’ framework. Brand to provide reassurance: safety, security and consumer control.Resolution:
  • The nVitro ScanDominic Harrison, Head of Global TrendsFrom Here to Eternity:Will Seymour, Editorial AnalystMay 2013
  • 51From Here to Eternity: The nVitro ScanSelf-powering devicesCreate and 3D print at homeWearable computingMonitored bodies, lifestyles, homesNext-generation interfacesNetworked people, productsFlexible, conductive materials
  • 52From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan
  • 53From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan
  • 54She’s played 7 hours this week.Is she ready to play the basssolo from You Can Call Me Al?Are you kidding?OK, I’ll get the backing trackfor Seven Nation Army.From Here to Eternity: The nVitro ScanNetworked Data
  • 55“In November 2011, when Apple launched the iPhone 4S,they put in Bluetooth Smart... they gave an unprecedentedamount of access to the radio, so you could really start tocreate very custom accessories.”Robert Milner, Cambridge ConsultantsFrom Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan
  • 56“For the user it’s freeingthem up, helping them todo more advanced thingsby using less of their time.”Robert Milner,Cambridge ConsultantsFrom Here to Eternity: The nVitro ScanComputers learn human
  • Beyond 20/20Jason Mander, Head of InsightMay 2013
  • 58Recognition from othersBeyond 20/20Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013Social networkersOthers41%41%Social networkersOthers34%23%ModeratelyStrongly
  • 59% who are social networkersBeyond 20/20Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals aged 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast16-24s+4%65++15%0%20%40%60%80%100%16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+2008 | 2013 | 2020(f)
  • 6033% 73%Mobile networkingBeyond 20/2020132020Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast
  • 61Society of SobrietyBeyond 20/20De-tagging photosTotal: 40%Smokers: 61%Drinkers: 68%Need to look goodNetworkers: 63%Smokers: 72%Drinkers: 71%Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
  • 62Beyond 20/20Mean age of mother at birth1990 202027.7 30.3Average age at first marriage1990 202025.2 30.5Life delayedSource: National Statistics/nVision | Base: England and Wales, May 2013 forecastSource: Population Trends, National Statistics/nVision, UK, May 2013 forecast
  • 63Ageless beautyBeyond 20/20Source: Eurostat/nVision, 2012Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012“People should makean effort to look theirbest at any age”Total: 69%65+: 83%Population over 65 (millions)20009.3201010.2202012.419909.0
  • nLightenment nVision-styleJames Murphy, Editorial DirectorMay 2013
  • 65nLightenment nVision-styleHow is Insight influenced/improvedby the play of publicly available ideas?Are there any Silver Bullets?New and better propositions and techniquesby which to understand consumer behaviour?Under the lens of these organised commentaries,what does the future seem to hold?The nLighten Focus on Trends
  • 66We might also ask...nLightenment nVision-styleIs the quality of technological innovation being matched bysimilar creativity and precision in the field of: Understanding of consumer need and motive? Socio-economic prediction? Trend identification and trend application inside strategy?
  • 67Do we notice anything aboutmodern insight literature?nLightenment nVision-style Much of it depends too heavily onmarketing anecdote (e.g. thedisaster of New Coca Cola) inorder to prove the validity of asolitary idea. Too often, consumers arecompared to people taking part inpsychological tests (e.g. theMilgram Experiment). Academic journals are trawled foroften tired and limited case studies.
  • 68Do we notice anything aboutmodern insight literature?nLightenment nVision-style There is a tendency for themes whichare hip-and-happening to be favouredby the publishing and authoringcommunity – a hit parade effect notalways capturing the best music. Social and cultural problems oftenseem exaggerated for dramaticemphasis. There can be too much of theConsultant’s Itch: something mustbe wrong and I can fix it.
  • 69Ideas impact the regulatory environment:re-shaping the prospects for trendsnLightenment nVision-style
  • 70Two FF trends: influenced by the battle of ideas…nLightenment nVision-styleThe Cult ofImmediacy…the observation thatgrateful anticipation offuture satisfaction haslong since been extirpatedfrom the consumerpsyche.Murdered ByModernity…the assumption that thefuture is to contain evermore pathologies of ainevitably pernicious kind.
  • 71nLightenment nVision-styleStrong BuzzThat the future is not what it usedto be, arriving more rapidly andexplosively than it ever did.That such is hegemony ofalgorithmic efficiency now thatrewards must flow to the best 21stcentury guerrilla marketing.That as consumer experiencesmorph so their need for new formsof reassurance, new directions inbrand narrative, must intensify.
  • More information?Please contact Karen Canty, Head of NewsEmail: karenc@futurefoundation.netDirect number: +44 (0) 20 3008 6107