Assessing enablers and constrainers of graduation

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Assessing enablers and constrainers of graduation

  1. 1. Assessing Enablers and Constrainers of Graduation: Evidence from Ethiopian Food Security Programme Rachel Sabates-Wheeler Institute of Development Studies, UK Mulugeta Tefera Girma Bekele Dadimos Development Consultants, Ethiopia December 2011
  2. 2. Content of the Presentation • Background on FAC • Methodology and survey design • Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Enablers and Constrainers to Graduation • Conclusions and Implications
  3. 3. Background on FAC • Future Agricultures Consortium is a multidisciplinary and independent learning alliance of academic researchers and practitioners involved in African agriculture • FAC aims to encourage dialogue and the sharing of good practice by policy makers and opinion formers in Africa on the role of agriculture in broad based growth. • Envisaging alternative futures for African agriculture through evidence base research.
  4. 4. Background on FAC • Thematic focus areas of FAC – Policy processes – Growth and Social Protection – Agricultural Commercialisations – Science, Technology and Innovation • Agricultural Growth and Social Protection (our theme) – focuses on the dynamics of graduation from social protection support to longer-term processes of livelihood improvement and pro-poor agricultural growth.
  5. 5. Methodology and survey design • The current report is part of a 2½ years research project on livelihood profile and graduation pathways in relation PSNP • It covers 8 communities in 4 woredas of Tigray and Oromia • The study collects quant and qual data – Survey of 300 HH two times – 4 community FGDs and woreda & Kebele KIIs – 2 times HH case studies • This report is prepared on the basis of first round HH survey and qualitative data collected in July/August 2011.
  6. 6. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Understanding of graduation – High among woreda and kebele officials by stressing on HH food security and asset building – Substantial improvement in the understanding of Graduation by Hhsaken – In Oromia woredas 3 waves graduation events taken place but only one was successful, because of recurring shocks – In Tigray 4 graduation events was reported and only two were successful – Lesson: there is a tension between graduation quota and time line set for graduation and the inherent risk factors
  7. 7. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Knowledge and Appropriateness of Benchmarks – In Oromia benchmark = Birr 19,200 per HH – In Tigray benchmark = Birr 5,600 per HH Table 2: Percentage of current beneficiary HHs reported hearing 'Graduation from PSNP' Region Yes No • Tigray 95.0 5.0 • Oromia 96.2 3.8 • Total 95.6 4.4
  8. 8. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency The year and percentage of households heard about graduation Year Current beneficiaries Graduated HHs Tigray Oromia Total Cumulative Tigray Oromia Total Cumulative 2005 3.8 0.0 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2006 0.0 7.7 3.8 5.7 2.7 15.4 9.2 11.8 2007 10.3 47.4 28.8 34.5 5.4 41.0 23.7 35.5 2008 19.2 20.5 19.9 54.4 27.0 23.1 25.0 60.5 2009 38.5 21.8 30.1 84.5 43.2 15.4 28.9 89.4 2010 28.2 2.6 15.4 100.0 18.9 2.6 10.5 100.0
  9. 9. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency Sources of Information about Graduation • In Tigray majority of HHs heard about graduation from Kebele Admin and KFST – 55.8% of current beneficiary and and 64.1% graduated sample households • In Oromia majority of HHs heard about graduation from DAs – 65.4% of current beneficiaries and 79.5% of graduated households Percentage of Sample HHs reported to know official graduation criteria of their kebele Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total Current beneficiary HHs 74.4 71.8 73.6 71.4 73.1 Graduated HHs 76.9 74.4 76.5 70.0 75.6
  10. 10. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency Criteria Current Beneficiary HHs Graduated HHs Tigray Oromia Total Tigray Oromia Total Annual food crop production 81.4 86.7 84.0 93.5 48.5 70.3 Livestock asset owned 52.5 75.0 63.9 80.6 100.0 90.6 Annual cash crop production (vegetables, fruits, chat, coffee) 44.1 15.0 29.4 51.6 9.1 29.7 Household labour availability 15.3 0.0 7.6 9.7 3.0 6.3 Land quality 10.2 5.0 7.6 12.9 3.0 7.8 Land size 10.2 5.0 7.6 9.7 12.1 10.9 Size of woodlot 3.4 1.7 2.5 9.6 21.2 15.7 Engagement in trading activities 1.7 1.7 1.7 12.9 3.0 7.8 Number of bee hives 3.4 0.0 1.7 6.5 0.0 3.1 Remittance and support from relatives 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 House rental income 0.0 1.7 0.8 Land rental income 12.5 6.4 9.6 Graduation criteria applied by kebele, % HHs
  11. 11. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Appropriate graduation criteria – Both KFSTF and households indicated to be list of assets and different income sources, no difference from the official criteria – One KFSTF in Fedis, Oromia, indicated the graduation criteria to be based on cash-in-hand as assets such as livestock can be easily lost by sudden shocks.
  12. 12. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Views of graduated HHs on graduation – Figure 3: Percentage graduated households that they were not ready to graduate (self-reported readiness) – About 43.2% graduated HHs reported that they were not ready to graduate – Majority of FHHs (66.7% reported they were not ready to graduate 57.5 43.2 47.1 66.7 50.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total %ofHHs
  13. 13. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Views of graduated HHs on graduation – Confidence level of graduated households no longer require PSNP support – In Oromia about 1/3 of graduated households reported that they no longer require PSNP support Tigray Oromia Total Confident 26.5 26.7 26.6 Some confidence 32.4 23.3 28.1 Highly confident 14.7 16.7 15.6 Have no confidence at all 26.5 33.3 29.7
  14. 14. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Percentage households made appeal during graduation – Reasons not for appealing 44.7 14.7 33.3 11.1 30.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total %ofHHs Tigray Oromia Male Female Total Do not know whom to appeal to 8.3 50.0 28.0 60.0 33.3 Expecting no change 58.3 16.7 40.0 33.3 I believed my graduation 33.3 16.7 24.0 20 23.3 No reason 16.7 8.0 20.0 10.0
  15. 15. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Percentage of graduated households by the entireties they appealed to Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total Kebele Appeal Committee 56.3 20.0 50.0 47.6 KFSTF 25.0 20.0 25.0 23.8 Kebele Administrator 12.5 10.0 9.5 WFSTF 20.0 5.0 4.8 Woreda Administrator 6.3 100.0 4.8 I don't remember 40.0 10.0 9.5
  16. 16. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Factors that graduate households different from current PSNP beneficiaries, % of graduated households – In Oromia bout ½ of graduated HHs that they are better-off current PSNP ben. Because they were able to meet their HH food needs – However, 21% indicated they have no significant difference from current beneficiaries – In the to sample woredas of Oromia there were some households returned to PSNP after graduation (according to KFSTF) – In both Tigray woredas there were no such returnees Tigray Oromia Total No significant difference 46.03 21.08 33.66 Meeting household food needs 26.03 50.49 38.00 More livestock holding 0.32 15.20 7.57 Better working labour force 8.89 3.43 6.12 Productive asset ownership 6.03 6.37 6.12 Got access to credit 3.17 3.43 3.22 Started irrigation practice 3.17 1.77 Engaged in trade activities 3.17 1.77 Use of agricultural extension services 3.17 1.77
  17. 17. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Views of Current PSNP Beneficiaries on their Future Graduation – Confidence level of current beneficiaries to graduate from PSNP, % of HHs – About 35.6% of HH in Oromia and 16.5% in Tigray are confident – About 46.6% of HH in Oromia and 32.9% have low confidence – Confidence to graduate is affected by cultural factors, expected risk factors such as drought and individuals interest to remain on the programme indefinitely Tigray Oromia MHHs FHHs Total Have no confidence at all 34.2 8.2 16.4 38.9 21.7 Highly confident 16.5 9.6 13.8 11.1 13.2 Confident 16.5 35.6 29.3 13.9 25.7 low confident 32.9 46.6 40.5 36.1 39.5
  18. 18. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Households estimation of graduation time, % of current beneficiary households – Majority of HHs (2/3 in Oromia and 1/3 in Tigray require more than three years Tigray Oromia Male Female Total More than three years 36.3 60.8 54.0 29.0 48.2 One and half to two years 22.2 20.3 22.4 17.6 21.3 Within one year 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.2 6.8 Within six months or less 3.0 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.2 At the time when the government say graduate 4.3 1.9 3.3 2.2 I do not know/not sure 27.4 10.8 13.0 40.5 19.3
  19. 19. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Appeal on graduation » Percentage of HHs appealed during Graduation » Percentage of graduated households by the entireties they appealed to 44.7 14.7 33.3 11.1 30.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total %ofHHs Tigray Oromia MHH FHH Total Kebele Appeal Committee 56.3 20.0 50.0 47.6 KFSTF 25.0 20.0 25.0 23.8 Kebele Administrator 12.5 10.0 9.5 WFSTF 20.0 5.0 4.8 Woreda Administrator 6.3 100.0 4.8 I don't remember 40.0 10.0 9.5
  20. 20. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency » The reasons graduated households did not appeal during graduation, % HHs » In Oromia about 50% HHs reported that they do no know whom to appeal to » In Tigray 58% of HHs did not appeal because do expected no change Tigray Oromia Male Female Total Do not know whom to appeal to 8.3 50.0 28.0 60.0 33.3 Expecting no change 58.3 16.7 40.0 33.3 I believed my graduation 33.3 16.7 24.0 20 23.3 No reason 16.7 8.0 20.0 10.0
  21. 21. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency • Summary – The majority of both the current beneficiary and graduated HHs are informed about graduation mainly from KFSTFs and DAs. Moreover, about 1/4 of the respondents do know the official graduation criteria in their kebele. – Graduation criteria are / should be livelihood based • In Tigray annual food crop production, livestock ownership, and annual cash crop production are 3 most important criteria used • In Oromia livestock ownership, annual food crop production and woodlot size – Feelings of graduated HHs about their graduation is mixed • About half of the graduates indicated graduation without readiness (interpret personal interests to remain in the programme into account) • About 1/3 of HHs have no confidence at all they can meet their food need without PSNP & 2/3 have some level of confidence
  22. 22. Pathway to Graduation and Resiliency – Appeal process • About 14.7% of HHs in Oromia appealed during graduation and 44% in Tigray did the same • 50% of not appealed HHs do not know whom to appeal to
  23. 23. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate Box 1: Constrainers (enablers) of graduation Programme-specific constrainers (enablers) • Inappropriate benchmarks • Inadequate income transfers • Absent or inappropriate complementary programmes and activities • Dilution of transfers – Partial (full) family targeting • Inflexible (index-linked) transfer rate in context of price changes • Scale effects – Coverage of programme Beneficiary-specific constrainers (enablers) • Lack of desire to graduate (dependency) • Dilution of the transfer – Sharing of resources between families • Initial household asset base • Business know-how Community/location-specific constrainers (enablers) • Initial community infrastructure and asset base – Land – Water/irrigation • Community level investment activities (large scale) • Community spirit • Decentralisation Market-specific constrainers (enablers) • Changes in prices • Lack of markets (goods, labour and credit) • Scale effects – Agglomeration effects (size of graduate pool) Environment-specific constrainers (enablers) • Climatic changes/ natural shocks
  24. 24. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate – Beneficiary-specific Constrainers • According to W/KFSTF – unwillingness to graduate, – hiding of assets during graduation assessment, – low initial asset base, dependency mind set, – misuse of transfer by some households, – PSNP beneficiaries being the poorest of the poor. • According to community members desire to stay in the PSNP is related to future uncertainly rather than any kind of ‘dependency syndrome.’ – recurrent drought, low or no initial asset base of PSNP beneficiaries, limited access to credit combined with unwilling to graduate (HHs in proving livelihood projectile) – having no plot of land of their own, no accumulated assets at the household level, large family size , unable to be engaged in petty trade in their localities and fear of taking out a loan (HH in stagnating or declining livelihood)
  25. 25. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate • Beneficiary-Specific Enablers – According to W/KFSTFs • The emergence of a positive work culture due to the PSNP public works (this was especially the case of Tigray) • Engaging in specialized income generating activities(cattle fattening, irrigation, retailing) • Dependable output markets • Beneficiaries desire to improve own livelihoods • Participation in different trainings and technical support • Receiving remittance from abroad • Engaging in trading activities – According to community members • desire to graduate from the PSNP through hard work, • the acquisition of business skills and • the setting up of business activities.
  26. 26. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate • Location (community) -specific constrainers – According to W/KFSTFs • the absence of big investment projects in their areas that can create job opportunities (except Zuway D) • crop and animal diseases • low soil fertility and high soil erosion – According to community • absence of large investments • state of being landless and • having small plot of land • animal disease and pests
  27. 27. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate • Location specific enablers – According to W/KFSTF • productive land for farming with good soil fertility, and; • big and medium size investment activities – According to the community • intensive soil and water conservation works undertaken • Access to irrigation infrastructure and irrigable land • Market-specific constrainers – fluctuating and increasing prices; – lack of labour markets and – Distance/ location of markets and associated transportation problems. • Market-specific enablers – good access to markets, – a good road network and market linkages. – ‘good’ prices for PSNP beneficiaries’ products
  28. 28. Enablers and Constrainers to Graduate • Climate-specific constrainers – Recurring drought – Flood (Oromia) – Pests and to a certain extent frost and hailstorms * Respondents were unable to identify climate- specific enablers
  29. 29. Conclusions and implications • Most beneficiaries are informed about graduation. However about ¼ of HHs are not well aware of graduation criteria in their kebele. – Thus expanding the knowledge of HHs on graduation criteria is crucial through KFSTFs and DAs • About ½ of graduated HHs taken out of PSNP without adequate readiness – Monitoring the livelihood of these HHs is important – Future graduation plan thoroughly consider graduations benchmarks and HHs ability to feed their members through out the year • About ½ of graduated HHs in Oromia do not know whom to apply to – HHs should be provided with clear information how appeal process works • Majority of HHs (2/3 in Oromia and 1/3 in Tigray require more than three years) – This indicate graduation size should be planned in incremental way over time • Unwillingness to graduate, hiding of assets during graduation assessment, dependency mind set and misuse of transfer by some households are some of beneficiary specific constrainers – These constrainers should be addressed through community education awareness building – Increasing access and size of loan together with skill building are some of the interventions to build confidence of HHs on graduation • Focusing of creating access to market through PWs have direct effect on graduation. Again higher attention should continue to be given on building access road to markets to create enabling enviroment.

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