Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17


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Over the past few months we have been running a number of workshops focused on helping organisations to identify and develop responses to emerging global and corporate risks. Working with companies, government agencies and advisory groups, we have been interrogating the insights from the Future Agenda programme to highlight those issues that provide the greatest potential challenge and also could have the most significant impact going forward. At a time when growing uncertainty and ambiguity are top of mind for many, we thought a brief summary of the most frequent topics being explored may be of wider interest.

In this summary we have therefore highlighted ten key global risks and ten key corporate risks that multiple organisations are seeing as high priority / impact for the next decade:

Ten Global Risks
• Accelerating displacement and the increase in migration
• Air pollution increasing in many urban environments
• A new world order driven by changing interests and relationships
• Broader cyber terrorism moving from the virtual to physical world
• Closing the inequality gap and balance equity and autonomy
• Flooded cities as the most visible impact of climate change
• Global pandemics stressing public health systems
• Key resource constraints driven by economic and political tensions
• Rising youth unemployment creating a lost generation
• Spiraling debt as a precursor to another major financial crisis

Ten Corporate Risks

• Continuous proof of loyalty to consumers required from brands
• Declining government influence as cities, networks and multinationals lead
• Full cost and having to account and pay for the true impact of activities
• Interconnected systems and the IoT increasing business vulnerability
• Managing data risk driving the need for greater security
• Regulation changing rapidly in its reach, its character and its focus
• Speed to scale accelerating and proving more disruptive impact
• Truth and illusion shifting view of what is credible and why
• The human touch being increasingly important in a digital world
• The rise of machines as AI and automation are both threat and opportunity

While not the same top issues for every organisation, these hopefully help to provide useful insight and context. More detailed information on many of these is available on the future agenda website www.futureagenda.org

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Future Risk - Emerging global and corporate challenges 05 02 17

  1. 1.      Future  Risk      Key  Emerging  Global  and  Corporate  Challenges    5  February  2017   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program  
  2. 2.     Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program.     Run  as  a  global  dialogue  across  all  conEnents,  it  accesses  mulEple  views  of  the  next   decade  so  we  can  all  be  beIer  informed  and  so  focus  on  and  sEmulate  innovaEon.  
  3. 3.     Future  Risks   Over  the  past  few  months  we  have  been  running  a  number  of  workshops  focused     on  helping  organisaEons  to  idenEfy  and  develop  responses  to  emerging  global     and  corporate  risks.  This  is  a  summary  of  the  top  10  in  each  group.      
  4. 4.     Top  10  Global  Risks      
  5. 5.     Accelera9ng  Displacement   Climate  change,  conflict,  resource  shortages,  inequality  and  poliEcal  elites  unable  or   unwilling  to  bring  about  necessary  change  all  trigger  unprecedented  migraEon  to  the   North.  Over  the  next  50  years,  as  many  as  1  billion  people  could  be  on  the  move.      
  6. 6.     Air  Pollu9on    Rising  air  polluEon  in  many  ciEes  is  killing  people  and  becomes    a  visible  catalyst  for  changing  mind-­‐sets  and  policies  across     health,  energy,  transportaEon  and  urban  design.      
  7. 7.     A  New  World  Order?   We  are  witnessing  the  transiEon  to  a  new  order:  New  naEonal  interests,    new  trading  routes,  new  products  /  services  are  all  emerging.  How  to  ensure   the  development  of  trade  in  this  environment  will  be  key  to  success.        
  8. 8.     Broader  Cyber  Terrorism   Cyber  aIacks  move  from  the  virtual  world  to  the  physical  -­‐  aIacking  planes,     uEliEes  and  industrial  systems.  Some  see  a  corresponding  slow  down  in     the  adopEon  of  sensors  and  wider  use  of  private  encrypEon  technologies.        
  9. 9.     Closing  the  Inequality  Gap   One  of  the  challenges  facing  the  state  is  how  to  balance  equity     and  autonomy.  A  centralised  system  is  oUen  viewed  to  be     more  equitable  at  the  expense  of  autonomy.        
  10. 10.     Flooded  Ci9es    The  vast  majority  of  our  ciEes  are  not  prepared  for  flooding.  Many  districts     and  households  can  no  longer  get  flood  insurance  and  are  in  jeopardy.     It’s  going  to  get  worse  before  it  gets  beIer.      
  11. 11.     Global  Pandemics   We  are  likely  to  see  2  to  3  major  pandemics  start  in     regions  with  limited  public  healthcare  and  rapidly     spread  globally  and  so  demand  fast  response      
  12. 12.     Key  Resource  Constraints   Economic,  physical  and  poliEcal  shortages  of  key  resources  increase  and  drive   increasing  tension  between  and  within  countries.  As  we  exceed  the  Earth’s   natural  thresholds,  food  and  water  receive  as  much  focus  as  oil  and  gas.      
  13. 13.     Rising  Youth  Unemployment   With  unemployment  rates  over  50%  in  some  naEons,  access  to  work  is  a  rising     barrier.  Especially  across  North  Africa,  the  Middle  East  and  southern  Europe,     a  lost  generaEon  of  100m  young  people  fails  to  gain  from  global  growth.      
  14. 14.     Spiraling  Debt    China's  debt  has  quadrupled  since  2007  and  global  debt  has  risen  40%.  If  economies   need  ever-­‐larger  amounts  of  debt  to  grow,  and  deleveraging  is  increasingly  difficult,   we  may  need  to  learn  to  live  with  high  debt  or  face  another  major  financial  crisis.      
  15. 15.     Top  10  Corporate  Risks      
  16. 16.     Con9nuous  Proof  of  Loyalty   Brands  have  to  consistently  demonstrate  their  loyalty  to  consumers     as  customer  mobility  and  switching  between  brands  increases.  Global,     regional  and  local  affiliaEons  blur  and  drive  wider  brand  consolidaEon.      
  17. 17.     Declining  Government  Influence    NaEonal  governments’  ability  to  lead  change  comes  under  greater  pressure     from  both  above  and  below  -­‐  mulEnaEonal  organisaEons  increasingly  set     the  rules  while  ciEzens  trust  and  support  local  and  network  based  acEons.        
  18. 18.     Full  Cost     Increasing  transparency  of  society’s  reliance  on  nature,  intensify     requirements  for  business  to  pay  the  true  cost  of  the  resources  provided     by  ‘natural  capital’  and  so  compensate  for  their  negaEve  impact  on  society.      
  19. 19.     Interconnected  Systems   With  50bn  devices,  millions  of  sensors  and  the  roll-­‐out  of  the  Internet  of  Things,   everything  that  can  be  connected  is.  While  many  gain  from  efficiencies,     others  are  increasingly  vulnerable  to  hacks  and  business  conEnuity  disrupEon.  
  20. 20.     Managing  Data  Risk   In  an  increasingly  connected  world,  risks  also  rise.  ProtecEon  against  hacking,     cyber-­‐aIacks,  fraud  and  counterfeiEng  all  drive  greater  security,  data  management     and  regulaEon  -­‐  but  this  is  balanced  by  the  pull  of  convenience  and  data  sharing.        
  21. 21.     Regula9on  Change   RegulaEon  is  changing  rapidly  in  its  reach,  its  character  as  well  as  in  its     priority  areas  of  focus.  More  stringent  legislaEon,  an  end  to  some  global   agreements,  changing  tax  rules  and  more  state  aid  are  all  in  the  pipeline.      
  22. 22.     Speed  to  Scale     Greater  global  connecEvity,  growing  consumer  wealth  and  broader     reach  all  combine  to  accelerate  the  Eme  to  1bn  customers  and  a     $10bn  valuaEon  for  start-­‐ups  and  new  corporate  ventures  alike.        
  23. 23.     Truth  and  Illusion   The  Internet  has  democraEsed  knowledge  and  changed  the  nature  of  who  we  trust   and  why.  As  confidence  in  large  organisaEons  declines  the  search  for  trustworthy   alternaEves  evolves.  What  we  believe  is  changing  how  we  behave.        
  24. 24.     The  Human  Touch   In  a  world  of  global  and  digital  markeEng  and  consumpEon,     consumers  will  increasingly  favour  those  brands  that  can  offer  more     emoEonal  engagements,  and  specifically  human-­‐to-­‐human  contact.      
  25. 25.     The  Rise  of  Machines     The  growth  in  the  intelligence  and  capabiliEes  of  machines  presents  both     a  threat  and  an  opportunity:  Greater  AI  and  automaEon  free  up  Eme,  but  also   threaten  jobs  -­‐  both  low  skilled  and  managerial  /  administraEve  roles.          
  26. 26.     More  Informa9on  and  Insights   www.futureagenda.org     hIp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda    hIp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2    
  27. 27.     Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  a  wide  range  of  views  in    25  countries.  Future  Agenda  2.0  doubled  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interacEon     and  significantly  raised  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST   16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     50  HOSTS   24  TOPICS   35  COUNTRIES   120  WORKSHOPS   5000  ORGANISATIONS  
  28. 28.     Future  Agenda  2.0  Topics   The  recent  Future  Agenda  program  took  place  during  2015     and  addressed  24  key  topics  via  120  events  in  45  ciEes  in  35  countries     across  5  conEnents  –  all  conducted  in  partnership  with  50  core  hosts.   CiEes   EducaEon   Learning   Transport   CollaboraEon   Energy   Loyalty   Travel   Company   Faith   Payments   Water   ConnecEvity   Food   Privacy   Wealth   Currency   Government   Resources   Work   Ageing   Data   Health   Trade  
  29. 29.     Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org