[Synopsis was: “Over the last 42 years, we’ve seen the Internet evolve from a the world’s first packet switching communications network to the massive infrastructure supporting the world wide web and on to today’s social networks. Mark Wilson doesn’t have a crystal ball, but he will talk about how Fujitsu sees the semantic web and the Internet of things taking us and how the impacts that they may have on our society.” https://events.bcs.org/book/93/]Good evening! Thank you for inviting me here to talk this evening about The Internet: Where Next?Quick introductions first…My name is Mark Wilson, and I work for the Chief Technology Officer at Fujitsu in the UK and Ireland
I’m officially known as a Strategy Manager but I prefer the term “technologist”, or “technology strategist”My job is to take Fujitsu’s vision, together with market analysis and a variety of other sources and highlight where technology is heading to support our reputation as innovative technology leaders.[Image source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/17237319@N00/2122844732/ licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC BY-ND 2.0)]
But, I’m sure you’ll be pleased to hear, I’m not here to sell to you tonight…[Image source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/10710442@N08/4034636727/ licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0)]
Tonight we’ll have a quick retrospective of where the Internet has taken us over the last 40-odd years before looking forward at three views of the future and, even though I will present the view that we have at Fujitsu, I don’t think there are any references to our products or services in this deck – it’s all about the direction in which we see things heading…
I should probably include this cautionary statement – basically, it’s a legal device to say that I’m not promising anything – anything you hear me say tonight may, or may not, happen and that there are many unknowns once we start talking about technology futures.
So, before I can look forwards, I think it’s worth taking a look at the Internet’s history.If I were presenting to a different audience, I might talk about the creation of the Internetin the cold war and how it’s developed to the global communications network that it has become. Given that my audience tonight is the British Computer Society’s Internet Specialist Group, I think that might be “preaching to the choir” somewhat!Even so, I’d like to call out some key events from the last fifty years, using this diagram that one of my colleagues produced. To my knowledge, this diagram has not been published and only existed in a draft document but I think it has some value, even today, although some might disagree with the “waves”. Computer-centric, network-centric and people-centric may sound a little contrived but… [click]
Hey, if I wanted to be really predictable, I’d have something like this…Some, including a great speaker from the Leading Edge Forum, Simon Wardley (you can usually catch him at UK CloudCamp events) would say that this is not really evolution - for that you need: data, correlation and causation.So, back to our diagram… [click][Image source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Human_evolution.svg licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported]
I’m going to pick out a few key events of the last fifty years that I feel have been pivotal points in bringing us to the Internet of today:[slide builds – click to reveal each of these]The first ARPAnet node in 1969Email in 19721000 Internet hosts in 1984Standardisation of TCP/IP in 1988100,000 Internet hosts in 1989The birth of the World-wide Web in 1990Followed by the phrase “Surfing the Internet” in 1992…
…continuing with:[slide builds – click to reveal each of these]The creation of the Amazon business plan in 1994 (I’m pretty sure that was as a bookstore, not a cloud computing powerhouse…)A claim (from 3Com) that the Internet will catastrophically collapse!The browser wars of 1996Launch of Google in 1998Wikipedia’s launch in 2001, passing one million articles 5 years laterFacebook’s launch in 2004, with user numbers eclipsing the population of the USA 5 years laterRecognition of cloud computing as a trend in 2007The use of Twitter by the pro-democracy movement in Iran in 2009UK Internet advertising exceeding TV advertising in 2009The Internet is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010 (and again in 2011)Then, somewhat ironically, perhaps one more…Social networking is blamed for the spread of riots in the UK (2011)…
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has issued its most recent survey of UK internet usage. The highlight of the survey is the rapid take up of mobile internet usage via the growth in smartphones.Interestingly, domestic Internet usage appears to be peaking, experiencing the slowest growth since the report was first produced in 2006.
I’d like to introduce a concept to you – and that concept is human-centric computing.For those of you who are not familiar with TED talks, TED is a non-profit organisation devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. It started out in 1984 as a conference bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design.Many TED presentations are available, free of charge, online and there is a great talk from Rebecca MacKinnon called Let's take back the Internet, during which she compares modern social networks with pre-Internet kingdoms and argues the case for what she calls citizen-centric computing. So I’d like to run through some of the key points that she makes.[http://www.ted.com/talks/rebecca_mackinnon_let_s_take_back_the_internet.html]
Once upon a time, we had physical sovereignty…[image source: http://imperialism-curriculumweb.wikispaces.com/licensed under Creative Commons, Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported]
[Non-animated version in case of problems]…but cyberspace sovereignty has been handed over to Zuckerberg,Bezos, Jobs, Gates, Schmidt, Page, Brin, et al.Later tonight you will hear Eileen Brown talk about social networks but, by way of an example, I just want to show how dominant (and hence significant) Facebook has become.Facebook is hasgained around 750 million users globally [source:http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics]) establishing leadership in 119 out of 134 countries analysed.Europe has now became the largest continent on Facebook with 205 million users.Of course, there are other networks that do not lead in any one country but still have a significant presence (Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.) and it’s unlikely we’ll see one network to rule them all (not even Google+) but it’s clear that Facebook is currently dominant.Even so, we do have some borders in parts of cyberspace around cultural, linguistic, government restrictions.In many parts of the world, the relationship between citizens and government is mediated through the ‘net (comprised primarily of privately owned networks and services). So, a question to ask ourselves is, how do we make sure that the internet evolves in a citizen-centric manner?800 years ago, English Barons forced King John to sign the Magna Carta, recognising that even the king had to abide by a set of rules – this was followed by cycles of political innovation, leading to consent of the governed (in the US). Now we need consent of the networked…It’s not just about politics and geo politics – but also questions of business management, investor behaviour, consumer choice, software design and engineering – to build a world where government and technology serve people and not other way around.[image source http://www.vincos.it/world-map-of-social-networks/ licensed under Creative Commons, Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives]
So how do we build this brave new, citizen-centric, world online?Well,social networking is often referred to using a horrible term “web 2.0” but that’s the now – when we look to the future, some people talk about “web 3.0”, or “the semantic web”.In fact, that’s only partially true: I believe that we will see an explosion in data volumes from machines, people and services and that, whilst meaning (i.e. semantics) will be important in order to make sense of all this data, we’re also going to have to take on board new tools and techniques to manage what is becoming known as “big data”.
This definition of The Future Internet is from the UK Future Internet Strategy Group, which is sponsored by the Technology Strategy Board – a UK public body that reports to the department for Business, Innovation and Skills (http://www.innovateuk.org/).I’ve highlighted some key words here…[source: https://ktn.innovateuk.org/c/document_library/get_file?p_l_id=4089836&folderId=4202359&name=DLFE-39125.pdf]
This is another extract from the TSB’s Future Internet Report, highlighting the 11-fold increase in the number of connected devices and the already staggering volumes of data that we are producing.
The future Internet is about providing new technology and business models to provide growth opportunities in business, society and government. Whilst connectivity is important – it’s about far more than just faster broadband services.By cutting across siloes such as energy, transport and healthcare, new services may be created that are designed for individualsElements of the future environment can be found in San Francisco, Barcelona, Korea and China and now they are starting to happen in the UK.
There are three main components that enable the Future Internet:Firstly, a capable access mechanism – including stacks more bandwidth but also an expansion of the available address space in order to support the massive device proliferation that will occur over the next few years.The infrastructure needs to move away from walled gardens towards provision of data-as-a-service, with individuals controlling the data that we make available – both in terms of provision and withdrawal of consent. That infrastructure is not just for the provision of cloud services, but also for machine to machine (M2M) communications.Finally, the convergence of services to deliver new business models and technology implementations. A new class of service provider will emerge to create and market service elements across sectors, aggregated by a broker (cf. systems integrators of today).
Having set the scene for human-centric computing and the future Internet, I want to paint a vision of how this could look, in the form of what we call The Intelligent Society
Before I finish my presentation, I’d like to highlight a website that might be of interest to those of you who would like to understand more about where technology is heading over the next few years.Technology Perspectives is a Fujitsu website, but it’s not about selling Fujitsu products and services – it’s actually intended to provide some background context for strategic planning.We want to help our customers to recognise the patterns that are driving technology change so that they may understand the technology and business change I mentioned earlier, and to plan for its implications.With that in mind, we’ve made 12 predictions around 9 key trends that we see occurring in the near-future.You can read more (and download the entire report) at http://technology-perspectives.com/
So, my time is pretty much up – I hope it’s been useful and interesting.
I said I wasn’t here to sell tonight, but I’d like to highlight some resources that may be useful.My team runs the CTO Blog for the UK and Ireland, where we try to comment on a number of issues at the intersection of business and technology. You can also find some of our presentations (including this one) on SlideShare.Technology Perspectives is our global view on the trends that are affecting IT decision makers right now – and it’s worth a read.And if you want to contact me then here are my details, including my Twitter alias, where I can be found at all sorts of strange times of day and night…Thank you for listening!
The following slides were removed from the main presentation but provide some supplementary information
[image source: http://qed.princeton.edu licensed under Creative Commons, Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives]
Agenda<br />A quick look a major steps in the development of the Internet<br />Looking forward:<br />A human-centric Internet<br />The future Internet<br />The intelligent society<br />
Cautionary Statement <br />These presentation materials and other information on our meeting may contain forward-looking statements that are based<br />on management’s current views and assumptions, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “estimates,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” and similar expressions that indicate future<br />events and trends identify forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied<br />in the forward-looking statements due to, without limitation, the following factors:<br />General economic and market conditions in the major geographic markets for Fujitsu’s services and products, which are<br />the United States, the EU, Japan and elsewhere in Asia, particularly as such conditions may effect customer spending;<br />Rapid technological change, fluctuations in customer demand and intensifying price competition in the IT,<br />telecommunications, and microelectronics markets in which Fujitsu competes;<br />Fujitsu’s ability to dispose of non-core businesses and related assets through strategic alliances and sales on commercially<br />reasonable terms, and the effect of realization of losses, which may result from such transactions;<br />Uncertainty as to Fujitsu’s access to, or protection for, certain intellectual property rights;<br />Uncertainty as to the performance of Fujitsu’s strategic business partners;<br />Declines in the market prices of Japanese and foreign equity securities held by Fujitsu, which could cause Fujitsu to<br />recognize significant losses in the value of its holdings and require Fujitsu to make significant additional contributions<br />to its pension funds in order to make up shortfalls in minimum reserve requirements resulting from such declines;<br />Poor operating results, inability to access financing on commercially reasonable terms, insolvency or bankruptcy of Fujitsu’s customers, any of which factors could adversely affect or preclude these customers’ ability to timely pay accounts receivables owed to Fujitsu; and Fluctuations in rates of exchange for the yen and other currencies in which Fujitsu makes significant<br />sales or in which Fujitsu’s assets and liabilities are denominated, particularly between the yen and the British pound and<br />U.S. dollar, respectively.<br />
Increased mobile Internet usage:<br />45% of people use the ‘net whilst mobile today cf. 31% in 2010<br />If we look at 16-24 year-olds it’s 71%<br />The use of wireless hotspots almost doubled in the last 12 months to 4.9 million users<br />Domestic Internet usage is also rising but slowly:<br />77% of households have access to the Internet (up 4% on 2010)<br />Half of the remaining 23% believe they “don’t need the Internet”<br />UK Internet usage today<br />Read more at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/rdit2/internet-access---households-and-individuals/2011/stb-internet-access-2011.html<br />
Internet evolution<br />Human-centric computing<br />Watch more at http://www.ted.com/talks/rebecca_mackinnon_let_s_take_back_the_internet.html<br />
World empires c1898<br />Image source: Wikispaces<br />
World map of social networks<br />Image source: Vincenzo Cosenza, using data from Google Trends for Websites/Alexa<br />
“The Future Internet: <br />An evolving convergent Internet of things and services that is available anywhere, anytime as part of an all-pervasive omnipresent socio–economic fabric, made up of converged services, shared data and an advanced wireless and fixed infrastructure linking people and machines to provide advanced services to business and citizens.”<br />[Technology Strategy Board Future Internet Report, May 2011]<br />
“The Future Internet environment is brought about by technologies that allow the capture of a vastly increased amount of data, ranging from high-definition video to a massive increase in low-cost multipurpose sensors. The number of connected devices is set to increase worldwide from the current level of 4.5 billion to 50 billion by 2020. This, together with other data sources, has driven the amount of data in the world up to a staggering 988 exabytes in 2010, roughly equivalent to a stack of books stretching from the Sun to Pluto and back.”<br />[Technology Strategy Board Future Internet Report, May 2011]<br />
The future Internet<br /><ul><li>New technology and business models
Massive opportunity for business, society and government
Happening outside the UK – and starting to happen here too</li></ul>Read more at https://ktn.innovateuk.org/c/document_library/get_file?p_l_id=4089836<br />&folderId=4202359&name=DLFE-39125.pdf<br />
Capable access mechanism<br />Bandwidth (super high definition video)<br />Expansion of address space (IPv6)<br />Multi-purpose, low cost, wireless sensor architectures<br />Cloud infrastructure<br />Move away from “walled gardens” towards data-as-a-service<br />Individual control over data provided (consented), including ability to withdraw data<br />Infrastructure needs to support machine to machine (M2M) transactions<br />Converged services<br />Transformational change in service delivery (public/private)<br />New class of service provider – broker of service elements<br />Enabling components<br />
A vision for the Future Internet<br />The Intelligent Society<br />
The Intelligent Society<br />Harmonising the physical world…<br />…and the digital world<br />
Technology - the old way<br />Experts only<br />Tailor-made<br />Static and<br />inflexible<br />Stateful<br />
Technology – the new way<br />Commoditised<br />Commoditised<br />Accessible to all<br />On-demand<br />Stateless<br />Stateless<br />
Steamship routes of the world c1900<br />Image source: Princeton University<br />
Internet map: city-to-city connections<br />Image source: ChrisHarrison.net<br />
Internet map: connection density<br />Image source: ChrisHarrison.net<br />
The earth at night<br />Image source: NASA<br />
“Happiness”<br />The Internet of the future: seen by today’s children<br />Image source: Paradiso (First Class Khatulistiwa Children Fun Art Pontianak, Indonesia)<br />See more at http://paradiso-fp7.eu/events/2011-conference/drawing-contest/<br />
About the author <br />Mark Wilson, Strategy Manager, Fujitsu<br />Mark is an analyst working within Fujitsu’s UK and Ireland Office of the CTO, providing thought leadership both internally and to customers, shaping business and technology strategy. He has 17 years' experience of working in the IT industry, 12 of which have been with Fujitsu. Mark has a background in leading large IT infrastructure projects with customers in the UK, mainland Europe and Australia. He has a degree in Computer Studies from the University of Glamorgan. Mark is also active in social media and won the Individual IT Professional (Male) award in the 2010 Computer Weekly IT Blog Awards. Mark may be found on Twitter @markwilsonit. <br />If you would like to comment on the topics in this presentation, Mark would welcome your feedback, by email to firstname.lastname@example.org.<br />Special thanks are due to Ken Ashida, David Gentle, Vin Hughes, Mark Locke, Alex Macadam, Ian Mitchell, Aran Rees and David Smith for their assistance in preparing this presentation.<br />