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Session 3 a aden aw-hassan
 

Session 3 a aden aw-hassan

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    Session 3 a aden aw-hassan Session 3 a aden aw-hassan Presentation Transcript

    • Investment in Agricultural Research as a Development Strategy International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Aden Aw-Hassan ICARDA Food Secure Arab World A Roadmap for Policy and Research International conference organized byThe International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the UnitedNations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) February 6-7, 2012 – UN-ESCWA, Beirut, Lebanon
    • Outline of the talk: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas1. Examples of research impacts2. Agricultural total factor productivity growth3. The food security case of Tunisia4. Conclusion 2
    • The impacts of wheat crop varietyimprovement on poverty reduction in Syria International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 3
    • Objectives were to determine: level of adoption of improved wheat varieties and International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas their economic impacts. Impacts of adoption of MV on rural poverty Better targeting of wheat crop varieties 4
    • Map of Syria5 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
    • MethodsFarm survey (1010 households): Adoption rates from survey International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Poverty indicators of wheat growers estimatedEconomic Surplus model: Adoption data Yield improvements (15% rainfed and 22% irrigated) Prices of wheat (USD 250/t) set by government For the period of 1985-2007 Gross annual research benefits for 2007 Small closed economy (price is set by the state) Only producer surplus is estimatedPropensity matching technique: To link likely greater adoption of new wheat varieties 6
    • Results (1)Adoption of soft wheat varieties 2007 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Varietal use by agro-ecologyVariety Rainfed Irrigated AllCham6 74 69 71Cham8 4 20 13Others 22 11 16 100 100 100Sample(n) 175 235 410 7
    • Results (2):Wheat growers poverty rates, 2007 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Frequency PercentPoor 282 27.9Non-Poor 728 72.1Total 1010 100.0 8
    • Results (3):Economic benefits of modern wheatvarieties International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry AreasThe estimated annual benefits from improvedmodern varieties:• Durum wheat: USD mill 0.53• Bread wheat: USD mill 1.65 9
    • Results (4)Estimated reduction in poverty International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areasindicators with MV adoptionPovertyindicator Durum BreadHeadcount 31% 60%Depth 28% 65%Severity 25% 64% 10
    • Concern about adoption Adoption of modern (first generation) is high Cham 6 and Cham 3 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 100 80% 80 66%% farmers 60 40 21 9 10 9 20 0.3 0.8 4.5 0 Cham 2 Cham 4 Cham 6 Cham 8 Others Cham 1 Cham 3 Cham 5 Others Bread wheat Varieties Durum wheat Varieties
    • Implications Seed multiplication and distribution need International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas to adopt a more flexible business model of targeting varieties to their appropriate environments, and to increase the diversity of varieties available for farmers.This will have a significant impact on farm income and poverty reduction, and will reduce the risk of losses due to disease epidemics. 12
    • Other technologies evaluated withsignificantly positive impacts International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Supplemental irrigation (Yigezu et al, 2012) Alley cropping of shrubs (atriplex and cactus) in dry lands (shideed et al 2010) Water harvesting for barley and shrubs (Akroush et al 2011) 13
    • Supplementary (improved) irrigation in Syria International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry AreasThe total national impact (farm profits plus valueadded to the conserved water) of the shift to ISIat its current adoption level of 22.34% isestimated in the range of 52 – 691 million SYPper year. 14
    • Returns to Atriplex adoption in MoroccoAssumptions and computed rates of returns atProgramme area and national levels International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry AreasItem IRR Cost components IRR (%) Cost components (%)FIRR 50 Opportunity costs 90 Opportunity costs Establishment costEIRR 25 Opportunity costs 48 Opportunity costs R&D costs R&D costs Subsidy (establishment Establishment costs costs) 15
    • Benchmark Project Model for Badia RehabilitationInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
    • Results of Financial and Economic Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) of different water harvesting techniques at the study area in Jordan Financial BCA Economic BCA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry AreasWater harvesting NPV B/C NPV B/CTechnique FIRR % (JD/ha) Ratio EIRR % (JD/ha) RatioTraditional Pits 20.2 162 3.55 7.4 97 1.75Shrubs with 28 277 4.96 13 208 2.5water harvestingBarley farmer 11.2 74 1.26 7.8 52 1.17practiceBarley with 29 109 1.31 17 63 1.16water harvesting NPV is computed at a discount rate of 10%)
    • agricultural TFP growth Regional level assessment of18 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
    • Malmquist index for Total Factor Productivity (TFP)TFP, is the product of ECh and TCh. Its value can be greater than, equal to, or less than one indicating International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas whether agricultural productivity improves, remains unchanged or declines.Efficiency change (ECh) refers to the degree to which a country uses the minimum feasible amount of inputs to produce a given level of outputs.Technical change (TCh) refers to shifts in agricultural technology over time, indicating whether the production frontier is improving, stagnant or deteriorating.
    • Efficiency Change (ECh), Technical Change (TCh) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas North Africa West Asia Period Algeria Egypt Ethiopia Morocco Sudan Tunisia Iran Jordan Pakistan Syria Turkey Yemen ECh 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.03 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.00 1.00 1.00 1961–70 TCh 1.02 1.02 0.89 1.01 0.98 1.01 0.97 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.99 0.97 TFP 1.03 1.02 0.89 1.02 0.99 1.04 0.97 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.99 0.97 ECh 1.12 1.00 1.00 1.11 1.09 1.16 0.98 1.08 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1971–80 TCh 1.08 1.05 0.92 1.01 1.00 1.05 0.97 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.07 0.87 TFP 1.21 1.05 0.92 1.12 1.09 1.22 0.95 1.14 1.00 1.04 1.07 0.87 ECh 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.03 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.99 1.01 0.99 1981–90 TCh 1.05 1.05 0.99 1.00 1.12 1.03 1.02 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.06 1.03 TFP 1.07 1.05 0.99 1.03 1.12 1.06 1.00 1.03 1.00 1.00 1.07 1.01 ECh 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.05 0.97 1.03 1.04 1.00 1.02 1991–2000 TCh 1.02 1.04 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.04 TFP 1.02 1.04 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.01 1.06 0.98 1.06 1.07 1.02 1.06 ECh 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.08 1.03 1.00 1.01 0.98 2001–07 TCh 1.16 1.01 1.12 1.09 1.02 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.19 TFP 1.16 1.01 1.12 1.11 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.15 1.06 1.06 1.12 1.16
    • 2500 45º lineAgricultural GDP peragricultur 2000 Tkal worker Agricultural GDP (US$) per agricultural worker International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areasand perhectare of 1500agricultur Tu Syal land Ir Al 1000 Mo Jo 500 Su Pa Ye 0 Et 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Agricultural GDP (US$) per unit of land (hectare) Algeria (Al) Ethiopia (Et) Iran (Ir) Jordan (Jo) Morocco (Mo) Pakistan (Pa) Sudan (Su) Syria (Sy) Tunisia (Tu) Turkey (Tk) Yemen (Ye)
    • Tunisia• Agricultural Value Added per Worker, increased more than three times (1960 – 2007). International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas• Average Fertilizer Consumption increased by four times (6 – 23 kg/ha);• One tractor served every 300 ha in 1960s, increased tractor use dropped the area per one tractor to 127 ha by 2001–07.• Irrigation systems continuously increased larger areas from 110,00 to 350,000 ha (1960 – 2007).• Investment in agricultural R& D is among the highest in the region
    • Tunisia: Total Domestic Food Supply (1000 tons) Under- Belo Cereal UnderCereal Wheat, rice, barley, maize, rye, Pop nouris weight w 2 Fruit (milli supplyoats, millet and sorghum on) (kg/pers hed (% in $/day children (% Fruits supply on pop) (kg/pers under 5 pop) /year) (%) on /year) 2000-07 1670 (43%) 2716 (70%) 9.8 208 3.0 3.3 12.8 2000-07 -(8%) 1041(103%) (4%) 88 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 1990-99 1723 (55%) 1599(51%) 8.8 217 3.7 4.6 19.7 1990-99 -(6%) 819 (103%) (2%) 76 1980-89 1165 (49%) 1207 (51%) 7.2 209 3.0 8.5 25.1 1980-89 -(9%) 598 (107%) (2%) 60 1970-79 1018 (67%) 498 (33%) 5.6 187 1970-79 -(13%) 438 (112%) (2%) 43 1961-69 842 (78%) 312 (29%) 4.6 167 1961-69 -(16%) 435 (115%) (1%) 39 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% -50% 0% 50% 100% Meat Vegetable Meats (5): Bovine, mutton, goat and supply Vegetables (3): Tomatoes, onions and supply poultry meats, and offals (kg/perso other vegetables (kg/person n /year) /year) 2000-07 -(7%) 2258 (106%) (1%) 194 2000-07 253 (98%) (2%) 26 1990-99 -(4%) 1666 (103%) (2%) 162 1990-99 185 (96%) (5%) 22 1980-89 -(2%) 1185 (100%) (2%) 145 1980-89 122 (92%) (9%) 18 1970-79 -(2%) 823 (102%) (0%) 125 1970-79 82 (98%) (2%) 15 1961-69 -(7%) 462 (107%) (0%) 81 1961-69 56 (100%) (1%) 12 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sources: Own elaboration based on data from the World Development Indicators online database for Prevalence of undernourished; Prevalence of underweight in children; and Exports Stock Variation Domestic production Imports Poverty headcount. All other variables were obtained from FAOSTAT online database.
    • Tunisia Cereal production under current and1000 tons 1960s average productivity levels2,500 Solid line: Represent actual cereal production quantities. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Dotted line: Represent production of cereals using the 1960s average agricultural productivity (kg/ha) levels.2,000 1,722 1,6701,500 1,165 1,0181,000 842 917 873 902 788 500 - 1961-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-07 Source: Own elaboration based on World Development Indicators database
    • ConclusionTCh has been the main driving force of TFP. International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas • Investing in agricultural research is the main lever to increase productivity, • It is also essential for food security and rural poverty reduction.Low ECh values indicate long-time lags betweenagricultural research investments and agriculturalextension programs • Policies that support technology transfer, access to inputs & finance are needed to reduce adoption lags.
    • 26 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas