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智能化住宅在中国
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  • Vision
  • Coupled with collective consumer data, smart spaces provide personalized and tailored experiences.
  • The need for thoughtful design is just as immediate and immense as the opportunity. Even in current devices and digital ecosystems, there are problems that have and will continue to threaten visions of the ideal smart connected home.
  • GreenTechGrid, 2011
  • “Assessment of Building Energy- Saving Policies and Programs in China During the 11th Five Year Plan”, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2011“Overview of Current Energy Efficiency Policies in China”, Energy Policy, Volume 38: Issue 11. November 2010“Assessment of China’s Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five Year Plan”, Energy Policy, Volume 39, Issue 4, April 2011, Pages 2165-2178frogSH feedback: original slide was lengthy to read, changed to timeline format2009 Household Appliance subsidy program. Subsidizes 15% of up to 2 appliances/household in rural areashttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-02/02/content_7439036.htmhttp://www.gov.cn/english/2010-12/16/content_1767022.htmCopied original text and pasted here:Historical precedent: The Chinese government has a history of staged energy management standards, starting with residential building standards in the 1980s in various regions, but the latest attempt at integrating multiple regional standards, due in 2007, has stalled. Most of these standards, however, related to building construction, HVAC, and lighting efficiency. Enforcement of new building energy standards is strong, but programs relating to building retrofits are perceived as failing.New policy steps: In April 2011, China announced a new national standard ("Energy Management System Requirements), to be implemented on November 1, to define overall energy management system elements, processes, and participants. This is several steps away from concrete standards for residential properties.Service provider subsidies: China has recently extended its rich subsidization schemes to service providers. Companies involved in energy management contracting projects are now eligible for a variety of tax concessions, effective this year.Appliance standards: China’s MEPS (minimum energy performance standard) for appliances dates to 1989 and has been revised over the years to cover new appliance types. However, it is a voluntary program and doesn’t yet cover smart appliances.
  • GreenTechGrid, 2011
  • frogSH: reordered the 4 pillars to show how one thing leads to another
  • By building devices that communicate via local wireless networks, as well as the cloud, we can lower the barrier of entry both for consumers and industry… allowing people to build their connected environment one device or service at a time.Smart TV is moving to the cloud - China-based company Neurosky developed the “world’s first brain-controlled smart TV” -> this product will be adopted by Haier
  • First generation experiences were all about connecting devices. This is relatively easy to do and offers customers tangible value. We have designed and developed medical devices, health and wellness products, consumer electronics, entertainment devices, appliances, and energy management devices which all became more interesting by being connected. The next step is to interconnect those experiences where it makes sense. E.g. smart Thermostats are made better by knowing the temperature inside and out, whether the windows are open or closed, the day of the week and time, who is home, and so on. E.g. Entertainment systems are made better by being aware of all content consumption devices, who consumed what, who paused the content where, and so on. Some samples of new cities being built in China that are high on inter-connectivity and “smart”Wuxi, Zhuhai, Beijing Dongcheng (Eastern part of Beijing), Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi’anAccording to Jiang Kejuan, research on sustainable resources at the National Development and Reform Commission, almost every province, municipality and autonomous region in China is eager to build its own eco-cityhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2011-08/15/content_13114599.htmMSFT is partnering with the provincial Jing nan government to set-up an R&D center and support the creation of smart cities
  • Yellow’s smart energy meter is ENABLED by Germany’s GSM network operators.Yellow maybe the best example of Smart Meter ENABLEMENT and integration with Home Energy Mgmt. using the GSM network as the backhaul for sending information to the utility. Yellow’s online meter lets users know exactly how they are using energy in their homes. The meter provides second-to-second usage data from appliances such as the refrigerators, stoves, stereo systems, and the water heaters.The information is available to users from a browser or mobile device.
  • Emerging technologies allow us to combine and seamlessly integrate devices, networks and natural interactions to enrich the connected human experience. Our power to “create” is increasing at an exponential rate. Everything that we create should be part of a compelling story… enriching tradition, honoring ritual. Goal: Envision, catalyze and motivate behavior through effective design.
  • Most people are not going to spend a lot of time setting up connected experiences. They have to work, out of the box. Each time you add the requirements for professional installation, or phone supported user set up, the total addressable market shrinks. These issues have to be designed and engineered out.e.g. in home energy management systems designed by frog, the product generates value without any set up. The user can enhance the experience with customization over time. But they don’t have to spend 2 hours inputting information before the first use.
  • Every high end hardware device has failed to gain traction - so I think this is where this must be addressed. Cisco killed their re-skinned device, most of the start-ups are serving that high end market only
  • “Energy for 500 million Homes: Drivers and Outlook for Residential Energy Consumption in China”, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2009Beijing Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering, 2008“Home Energy Management Beyond the Numbers” whitepaper by the Aricept GroupNational Bureau of Statistics, 2006US Energy Information Association, 2009, 2011CIA World Factbook, 2010“Analysis of Potential Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction of Home Appliances and Commercial Equipments in China”, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2011
  • “Energy for 500 million Homes: Drivers and Outlook for Residential Energy Consumption in China”, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2009Beijing Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering, 2008“Home Energy Management Beyond the Numbers” whitepaper by the Aricept GroupNational Bureau of Statistics, 2006US Energy Information Association, 2009, 2011CIA World Factbook, 2010“Analysis of Potential Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction of Home Appliances and Commercial Equipments in China”, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2011
  • Consumption mentality: Many Chinese, in their desire to partake in the country’s astounding growth, have an excessive consumption mentality. For example: leaving the air-conditioning running non-stop in hotter months.Government subsidization: The Chinese government strongly subsidies energy, creating little consumer incentive to invest in expensive technologies to marginally reduce power consumption.Primitive smart grid: China’s grid is not smart – it does not have demand response as known in the west. Parts of the grid can be shut off, but there are no fine-grain controls that allow curbing power to certain appliances in a certain area.Lack of property owner demand: Property owners and owner associations, who are in the best position to make smart home investment decisions for a property, are not motivated to do so, given the overall perception of minimal savings.http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2011-08/15/content_13114599.htmChinese cities consume so much energy that for every one percent increase in GDP, another 1.03 percent of energy is expanded, and whenever an urban population grows by one percent, 2.2 percent more energy is consumedhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/25/business/energy-environment/25coal.html?pagewanted=allChina’s 700 million rural residents have been on a two-year buying spree of electric devices, purchasing hundreds of millions of air-conditioners and other energy-hungry appliances with government subsidies aimed at narrowing the gap in living standards between cities and rural areas.
  • What can we tell from a fully instrumented home?A lot! We have been involved in a number of experiments with equipment from different people. This is from an Intel developer forum presentation by Justin Ratner, from the house of one of his chief engineers. We can tell what time the xbox went on, whether that should be the time when the laptop switches on.We can tell a LOT about a family. NIST report shows potential concerns about who was home (police, alibis, landlords), what they did. Breach of the right to privacy.
  • 还有一些公司可以加入这个行列思科(Cisco)Tendril公司http://gigaom.com/cleantech/why-internet-companies-are-abandoning-home-energy-plans/
  • 交互地创造独特个性和“粘度”

智能化住宅在中国 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 智能化住宅在中国
    西奥多·福巴斯(THEODORE FORBATH)
    青蛙创新战略部全球副总裁
    2011年9月
  • 2. 请想像一个看不到任何技术的房子
    房子的物理结构成了我们的平台...一个空间界面,这个空间界面能够感受到我们的需求并快速做出反应,能够帮助我们,但是这样的一个智能界面却位于屋子外部。 住户们在房子里自由走动,享受有求必应的智能环境带来的便利。
  • 3. 智能体验,尽在数字世界
    我们正在进入一个数字融合的世界,在这个世界里,各种传感器,收集到的数据以及无处不在的计算能力创造出了一个高度灵敏和个性化的环境。数字融合为基于电力和可扩展性云计算创新服务创造了机会。
  • 4. 为何难以实现?
    今天住宅中的数据生态体系充满了复杂性; 各个设备之间的连接线路暴露在外,看起来大煞风景。不兼容的或半兼容的元器件一旦有一个出问题,其脆弱性就暴露了出来。对它们的维护以及对难以掌握的技能的学习占用了我们宝贵的时间。
  • 5. v
    丰富的沟通意味着更深程度的连接
    智能空间就意味着回到家以后,让各种技术退居后台运作,这样我们就可以专心与自己爱的人做喜欢做的事情。技术简化了我们与数字生态系统之间的互动。该系统的模块化和自我修复功能可以为我们提供不间断的有机体验。
  • 6. 中国的机会就在眼前
  • 7. 机会就在当前
    丰富的传感器网络,无处不在的计算机以及开放式的服务架构从未像现在这样价格完全大众化。 很多企业正在重新架构实现互联家居的途径,在其中注入创新元素并开发出了超越现在状态的”更智能“的生态系统。
  • 8. 能源国际市场的形成时机尚未具备
    但是以下5个地区将会在未来18-24个月内为能源市场的创新做出贡献。
    欧盟
    印度
    美国
    澳大利亚
    中国
  • 9. 众多品牌公司已经参与这一市场的创新
  • 10. 可能出现两个终极状态
    以公用设施为中心,行业承担整合和融合任务
    服务提供上通过公用设施提供一流服务
    能源用案例推动家居内外自动化
    智能仪表担任家庭局域网网关和协调器的角色
    公用事业部门用权力推动了标准的演变
    与家居自动化框架相比,ZigBee智能能源框架占主要地位
    脱钩与违规现象依然存在
    公用设施、运营商以及服务提供商以战略合作伙伴关系或收购情况下独立运作。
    运营商通过家中宽带而非公用设施提供服务
    能源只是在环境,安全等问题中的一个机器对机器自动化用例
    住宅管理解决方案的存在和运行不需要公用设施作为消费类电子设备参与
    “智能插头”等外部设备或整栋住宅的电力设备提供能源数据
    终极状态 1 以公用设施为主导
    终极状态 2
    竞争中合作
  • 11. 我们相信“竞争中合作”更容易实现,但中国实践有其特殊性
    以公用设施为中心,行业承担整合和融合任务
    服务提供上通过公用设施提供一流服务
    能源用案例推动家居内外自动化
    智能仪表担任家庭局域网网关和协调器的角色
    公用事业部门用权力推动了标准的演变
    与家居自动化框架相比,ZigBee智能能源框架占主要地位
    脱钩与违规现象依然存在
    公用设施、运营商以及服务提供商以战略合作伙伴关系或收购情况下独立运作。
    运营商通过家中宽带而非公用设施提供服务
    能源只是在环境,安全等问题中的一个机器对机器自动化用例
    住宅管理解决方案的存在和运行不需要公用设施作为消费类电子设备参与
    “智能插头”等外部设备或整栋住宅的电力设备提供能源数据
    终极状态 1 以公用设施为主导
    终极状态 2
    竞争中合作
  • 12. 能源可能会成为实现更大目标的切入点
    舒适和自动化的高端市场实现
    高端房地产开发商的家庭安全系统
    为房地产开发商和管理管理公司设计的预防性维护系统
    为中高阶层家庭设计的家庭网络
  • 13. 中国的行业转型虽然还处在最初阶段,但方向是正确的
    霍尼韦尔公司和海尔公司宣布合作开发家居住宅(及其他领域)高能效解决方案。
    比亚迪公司在2010年宣布要跨出电动汽车领域向家庭能源管理行业进军。比亚迪公司的这项计划首先在西方国家实施,它已经与KB Home公司签署了协议要在加利福尼亚建造绿色家园原型。
    江森控制公司在2010年被授予”节能服务机构纪录证书“,开始在中国提供全面的能效建设服务。
    霍尼韦尔公司在2011年被国家电网公司选中研究建筑物中的能源需求及先进能源管理。
  • 14. 政府也朝着正确的方向制订计划,尽管也在起步阶段
    历史先例:
    中国政府历来制订过阶段式能源管理标准
    新政策:
    2011年4月,中国宣布了一项新的国家标准(“能源管理体系要求”),主要用于定义所有能源管理体系的要素,程序以及参与者
    服务供应商补贴:
    中国近来已将其丰富的补贴计划的受益范围扩大至服务供应商。
    设备标准:
    国的设备用最低能源性能标准制订于1989年,几年来为适用于新设备种类已进行多次修订。
  • 15. 中国的生态城市概念同智能互联住宅理念异曲同工
    智能住宅的市场机遇将会在智能公寓和智能城市这一块:开发出一个标准计算机设备运用于所有新公寓中,使其成为把能源、网络、安全等的管理结合在一起的控制点。
  • 16. 实现此愿景的四个条件
  • 17. 01
    云计划试智能体验成为现实
    创建一个理想的分布式环境以实现智能、高效和高度灵活的服务。
    通过“云数据”来减少管理互连设备,环境以及生态系统的复杂性。
    提高能力的同时降低风险,为制造商和服务供应商提供服务创新。
  • 18. 住宅用“纳米云”基础设施可以实现复杂的分析学
  • 19. 02
    智能化的设备连接
    要使得连接不只能够促进有意义的互动,更要消除复杂性,提供丰富和有创意的用户体验。
    充分利用云计算和新兴技术提供跨设备的无缝集成体验。
    从单一功能平台到应用平台的过度设备
  • 20.
  • 21. 03
    形成智能化和集成的生态系统
    开发无缝,能支持应用和服务的生态系统,以驱动价值和丰富客户体验
    实施一个框架,在该框架中产品得以更好设计和装入,同时适合在不同生态系统连接
  • 22.
  • 23. v
    04
    促进有效的用户体验
    连接促进有效的用户体验
    整合无缝集成的设备、网络和人机互动来丰富关联的用户体验
    通过有效的设计想象、激发、催化用户体验
  • 24.
  • 25. 一些大的挑战
  • 26. 中国家居市场对能源市场的影响低于美国或许是一个问题
    美国
    中国
    家庭平均每年在能量在上的花费
    $160
    $1850
    11.3 MBtu
    至2020E每户家庭的能量消耗
    58.6MBtu
    11%
    家庭能量消耗占总能量消耗的比
    22%
    11%
    40%
    家庭能量消耗占总排放的比
    1x
    中国能耗最大城市/美国能耗最小城市
    5x
  • 27. 但宏观数据显示市场潜能之大令人难以置信
    美国
    中国
    6.5 夸特
    2005家庭能量消耗
    10.6夸特
    15.7夸特
    2020E家庭能量消耗
    20.0夸特
    4.0%
    家庭在能量上的消费占收入的比%
    3.7%
    47%
    城镇化占人口的比 %
    82%
    2.3%
    城镇化率(2010-2015)
    1.2%
    13.9%
    家用电器拥有率年增长率
    6%
  • 28. 行为和基础设施方面的问题仍显著并亟待解决
    消费心理
    政府补贴
    开始的智能电网
    物主需求的缺乏
  • 29. Source: Justin Rattner’s Keynote Presentation, Intel Developers Forum, Beijing 2010
  • 30. 近期微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)的撤退揭示了重大的挑战
    谷歌和微软近期宣布他们将放弃家庭能源管理方面产品
    为什么?
    1. 信息缺乏不足以激励用户行为改变。
    2. 家庭能源管理应该和家庭自动化深度结合。
    3. 需要显著的感应和分析(技术)--计算机技术的一个重大挑战
  • 31. 发展和传播这个观点
  • 32. 关于未来中国智能家庭终端到终端的一种可能性展望
    1: 网络基础设施
    • 先进仪表基础设施的发展(网关和户外智能网络接口)
    2: 公用事业设施远程数据中心
    • 提供仪表数据管理软件服务
    • 33. 优化后端仪表数据管理系统
    3: 智能仪表
    • 内置应用和软件开发
    • 34. 和HAN系统的集成
    4: 在家庭内
    • 设计和建立家庭能源管理设备和系统
    • 35. 应急通讯标准的专业技术,如ZigBee, 6LoWPAN
    NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE
    SOLAR PANELS
    UTILITY DATA CENTERS
    1
    1
    2
    CONSUMER CONTROL
    3
    SMART METERS
    4
    4
    DEVICES IN THE HOME
  • 36. 在今日的中国,由房地产开发商及物业将大型智能家庭生态系统和城市建设结合为一体可能是短期最好的商业机会。
    家庭自动化
    家庭能源管理系统
    安保
    智能连接家庭
    媒体通道&回放
    远程监控
  • 37. 智能公寓建筑中智能连接家庭的场景
    家庭自动化
    有反应功能的家庭会(自动)开门,打开灯,调节加热,通风和空调设备
    媒体回放
    整个家庭声音系统从一个房间传到另一个房间,并慢慢消退
    远程监控
    有意识功能的房子提供远程监控功能以和所爱的人保持联系
  • 38. 建立多协议技术基础
    容量
    设备数目
    第三阶段:预测行为,并对意识加以利用
    第二阶段:通过感应网络将感知线索化
    第一阶段:连接分散的技术
    35
  • 39. 第一阶段:连接
    使用感应器+设备来激活连接
    家庭自动化
    用于控制照明、供暖,喷淋等各个分散技术控制的简单统一的界面
    家庭能源管理
    使用室外气温,用户的位置和是否有人出现的信号来优化家庭能量消耗
    远程监控
    远程家庭监视监控
    基于用户出现与否激活安保系统
    安保
    媒体回放
    本地和远程交叉的生态系统的进入和回放
  • 40. 第二阶段:线索化决定功能
    通过和线索化决定矩阵设备的活动连接建立逻辑
    家庭自动化
    使用声音,手势,视网膜, 触觉线索控制周围环境
    家庭能源管理
    对外部和内部的因素(房间里所有的设备和物体)产生意识,以分配和优化能量消耗
    远程监控
    和远程监控交互,允许来自用户的反馈,以激活事先定义好的反应
    安保系统对事先设定好的触发条件作出反应,并且和公共反应系统进行交互
    安保
    媒体回放
    媒体随着用户进入房间,从一个房间跟随到另一个房间,智能回放冲突避免
  • 41. 第三阶段:预测
    自动交互(AI)和已连接系统的交互,以使得交互能接近人类认知的层次
    对用户、周围环境,设备控制、房屋外进入房屋等进行预测并作出反应
    家庭自动化
    对特定用户行为(如睡觉)进行识别并作出反应,以优化设备的能量消耗
    家庭能源管理
    远程监控
    对谁或者什么在和系统交互进行识别并且做出预测反应
    安保
    对认知性,预测性和反应性行为进行安保
    媒体回放
    对已知兴趣、心情和社会性因素的输入进行媒体的选择