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Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013
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Claus Kjeldsen - Future Forum 2013

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Amministratore delegato del Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, think tank con sede in Danimarca e centro di ricerca internazionale tra i più autorevoli. Esperto di strategia, innovazione, …

Amministratore delegato del Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, think tank con sede in Danimarca e centro di ricerca internazionale tra i più autorevoli. Esperto di strategia, innovazione, marketing e consumer trends, tiene conferenze in tutto il mondo. Ha collaborato con istituzioni governative, organizzazioni internazionali, istituti finanziari e aziende private su progetti strategici di larga scala. È stato amministratore delegato e consulente in numerose start up.

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  1. The future of SME and the evolution of business clusters October 14th 2013
  2. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) CIFS is an independent, not-for-profit think tank. Since 1970, it has been guiding key decision makers all over the world. We use futures studies to create immediate changes, innovation and development in companies, organizations and society. We do this by offering a future-driven business network, experienced business development competencies and strong knowledge sharing. Part of our revenues are invested in R & D. Strategy & Innovation Live Inspiration Membership Network
  3. Some of our products: Award winning magazine Members’ reports Projects for clients
  4. Studying the future is human nature It is a crucial adaptive capacity in human social, cultural, political and economic evolution It is a fundamental aspect of who we are and how we function.
  5. Predictions is rarely enough ”I am not an economist, but I do believe that we are growing” President George W. Bush July 2008
  6. And the costumers are still more demanding "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
  7. Do they actually know what the want? ”If I asked people what they wanted, I would have made a faster horse” Henry Ford
  8. What is a megatrend? We are trying to lay a hierarchy over a chaotic system Top level megatrend Sub-trend trends Individual obeservations
  9. Assessing megatrends’ consequences • Megatrends are synthetic complex aggregation of trends. They are interconnected, which means there are synergistic opportunities among them. • You can’t hide from a megatrend – they affects society in general. While megatrends are global, their impacts can vary locally. • They have a life time of at least 10-15 years • Warning: While they are ”paths” of expected development, do not expect the development to occur linearly • We have a tendency to over estimate the consequences in the short-run and under estimate them in the long run.
  10. How companies use megatrends: Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: - Capture market oppotunities Test risks Spur innovation Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - Basis for innovation process - Basis for scenario planning - Basis for Early Warning Systems - First step in quality assessment of business and strategy concepts (investment themes) Matthias Horx, Futurist: - Better decision making in strategic management - Quicker and more precise innovation generation
  11. USA, Magazine from the 1950’s: ”America 2000 - this is your future!” 3D Color TV Wall-Panel Glass Walls Dust-free Floors Slide-back Roof Personal Helicopter & Roof Landing Area Menu Selector & Microwave Stove Giant-size Fruit MovingStairway Ultrasonic Laundry Electrical Heat Unit House-control Panel Phono-vision Receiver
  12. An example from CIFS ”Before 2005 we must expect China and maybe India to be future competitors and potential markets if we are able to adapt to their political and cultural constraints”. Source, IFF: Towards 2005, 1980
  13. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  14. Threats and opportunities are in the cross Original position e.g. Clean Energy section of trends Sustainability Current position Globalization Technology Development Economic Growth Pictet Asset Management How to benefit from a megatrend 15
  15. How to use megatrends • • • • • Social Technology Economic Environmental Political • • • Megatrends Contextual environment Competitors (new and existing) Suppliers and value chain Labor market Transactional environment Companies’ innovation, strategy and risk management Opportunities Threats
  16. Different approaches to predicting the future Scenarios Predictive Forecasts What if? Explorative External Strategic Normative Sustaining Transformative Source: Börjeson, Línda, et. al. 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm, KTH.
  17. Forecasts Scenarios • Possible futures • Based on certain relationships • Hidden risks • Quantitative • Done when we need to decide quickly • Used everyday • Strong in short-term and in areas with low degrees of uncertainty • Possible and plausible • Uncertainty based • Illustrate risks • Quantitative or Qualitative • Need to know what must be decided • Used occasionally • Strong in the medium to long-term or when there are high degrees of uncertainty Visions • Desired future • Value based • Hidden risks • Qualitative • Inspiring • Used daily • Used in everyday decision making
  18. Examples of Scenarios
  19. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  20. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  21. Accelerating pace of change
  22. • Accelerating pace of change Exponential rate of ICT development – ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.” • • Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune1000 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013 Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/
  23. Customers, innovation, competitors – the biggest threat to organizations Political Risk Customer Preference Significance Competitor Shifts Innovation Business Interruption Technology Shifts Economic Conditions Reputation Regulation Terrorism Interest rates Hazards Foreign Exchange Credit Risk Compliance Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)
  24. Industries converge Five largest mobile handset manufacturers worldwide based on quarterly sales figures (total units sold) 2000 2012 1. Nokia 1. Samsung 2. Motorola 2. Nokia 3. Ericsson 3. Apple 4. Siemens 4. ZTE 5. Panasonic 5. LG Electronics Source: Gartner dataquest, 2010, 2012
  25. New society creates need for new partnerships Energy Infrastructure Competition convergence ICT Players Automobile & homeowners assistance
  26. What is the answer • Exponential rate of ICT development – ”Technological progress—in particular, improvements in computer hardware, software, and networks—has been so rapid and so surprising that many present-day organizations, institutions, policies, and mindsets are not keeping up.” • • Hyper-competition is accelerating creative destruction CEO’s cannot keep up: 40% of CEO’s last less than 2 years and median tenures lasted 5.5 years (in Australia it is down to 3.9 years) The rate of replacement of Fortune1000 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013 Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/
  27. The answer is increased flexibility: Due to the pace of change, employees are transitioning from a fixed to variable cost • Among OECD countries, temporary job growth has been 1.5 – 2 times faster than total employment since 1990s • In France, the number of temporary jobs grew by 66 percent while regular job growth increased by 7 (20002010). Source: McKinsey (2012)
  28. From transaction to relation and service Ownership Assets Lease Service Cash flow
  29. Reflections conclusions Consequences ? Is you technology increasing the flexibility of your customers Are you selling a product or a service?
  30. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  31. A new society requires new ways of working 20th century • • • • • • • 21st century “Limited” social interaction Value in transactions Business stability Well-defined industries and hierarchies One-way markets Limited information Resource abundance Institutions • • • • • • • • • • • Pervasive social interaction Value in relationships Business flux Industry transformation Two-way markets Information abundance Resource constraints Forces Ambient communication Global information flows Social computing Market discontinuity Communities CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
  32. How does this affects private consumption? MR1 2013
  33. Access/service is more important than owning
  34. RobotCab – googlecar
  35. Sharing economy Source: The Economist (2013)
  36. FREEDOM FROM OWNING
  37. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  38. Economic Growth
  39. Growth is a megatrend but WE are struggeling GDP Growth Rate, as a % of previous Quarter 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 -0,5 Germany United States European Union (27 countries) OECD - Total Brazil China India Source: OECD StatExtracts, data extracted dec 3, 2012
  40. Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030 Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum
  41. Just the beginning
  42. The transatlantic economy VS the rest of the world (% of total GDP based on purchasing-power-parity)
  43. Personal consumption in developing Europe VS China (billions of USD)
  44. Output of Europe’s periphery VS China/India (trillions of USD) Europe’s periphery: Developing Europe, Middle East, North Africa and SubSaharan Africa
  45. Regional thinking Kilde: Tøm vækstlommerne i Europa, af Susanne Tholstrup, Børsen, 20.09.12
  46. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  47. Middle class now and in 2030 Size of the middle class in 2009 and prediction for 2030 Sources: Mckinsey, World Economic Forum
  48. Institutioner Source: Fatás&Mihov HBR 2009. Based on: Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007. Daniel Kaufmann Aart Kraay Massimo Mastruzzi The World Bank Development Research GroupJune 2008
  49. A changing environment for offshoring Source: McKinsey (2008)
  50. Massive Impact
  51. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  52. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 1950 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 28,6
  53. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 1960 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 29,6
  54. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 1970 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 30,6
  55. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 1980 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 31,9
  56. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 1990 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 34,4
  57. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2000 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 37,6
  58. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2010 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 40,8
  59. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2020 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 43,8
  60. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2030 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 46,6
  61. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2040 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 49,4
  62. OECD More developed regions Low Variant Male Mænd Female Kvinder 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 2050 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 Population (i tusental) Population (in 1000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 Median age 51,1
  63. We’re not alone
  64. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Senior lines • K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout lane for the old and handicapped • Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small talking with the co-worker • Lane is called: “SLOW” • Grab a chair - sit down – and enjoy the atmosphere
  65. Life Phases Around 1950 0 Around 2020 20 40 60 80 Age Elderly 60 Free II Parents 40 Free 1 Independent 20 Dependent 0 80 Age
  66. Omkari Panwar, 70 år
  67. Better than expected The experience of life in retirement after 60, is almost everywhere better than expected – whether comparing missing work, financial security or standards of living. The survey shows that far from being a time of misery, penury and frailty, life for most people in their 60s and 70s is characterised by good health, independence, control and a good quality of life Source: HSCB Insurance, 2011: The Future of retirement
  68. And we are all moving to the city Urban population by major geographical area (in per cent of total population) United Nations:World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision
  69. Genkai Shuraku- marginal village A community that has reached a critical limit in the number of elderly that ultimately hinders their ability to function properly. 50% of the population above 65 (18.775 villages) will be Genkai Shuraku in 2020. Source: DS (2012)
  70. Four major urbanization trends Importance of global 600 Emergence of mega cities 600 most important contributors to global GDP Cities with over 5 million inhabitants Mega regions Mega corridors Cities combining with suburbs to form regions (population over 10 million) The corridors connecting two major cities or mega regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-ShenzhenGuangzhou in China (population 120 Million+)
  71. • Today: "Pentagon": London, Hamburg, München, Milano og Paris. • I 2040: The Pentagon goes east: London, Paris, Hamburg og Warszawa. Source: EPSON 2006, IDA, 2009, NISA 2010
  72. Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority
  73. She-conomy • The average American woman is expected to earn more than the average American male by 2028. • Women account for 85% of all consumer purchases : – – – – – – – – 91% of New Homes 66% PCs 92% Vacations 80% Healthcare 65% New Cars 89% Bank Accounts 93% Food 93 % OTC Pharmaceuticals Sources: She-conomy.com
  74. Feminization of society -- the evolution of authority Nordic Region Women graduates ISCED 5+6 Business, law, social sciences. Engineering, however, no change 100000 60,00% 90000 50,00% 80000 40,00% 70000 30,00% 60000 Men 50000 Women Lineær (Men) 40000 Lineær (Women) 30000 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3. Social science, business and law 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing 20000 5. Engineering, manufacturing and construction 10000 Lineær ( Lineær ( 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Women graduates grew 2,5 times faster than men 3. Social science, business and law) 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing) Lineær ( 4. Natural science, mathematics and computing)
  75. Design, products and services for women Today, 1/3 of Danish women earn more than their partner In 2000, only 1/4 of Danish women earned more than their partner Growing portion are single Towards, 2028 72% of purchasing decisions will be made by women…if BCG is correct Sources: DS, 2012, DDC, 2011
  76. Reflections conclusions Consequences Aging? Urbanization She-conomy
  77. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  78. Please, help yourself
  79. Holy Grail—a 5.6-ounce running shoe called the Flyknit, made from synthetic yarn ingeniously woven together by a knitting machine.
  80. Megatrends Network society Demographic development Sustainability Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Commercialization Acceleration and complexity Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  81. A consequence of the financial crisis From To
  82. Critical success factor in business
  83. Numerous studies show that on average, a business located in a cluster has a stronger growth and survival rate than those located outside it.
  84. Clusters enhance the following: » Productivity » Innovation » New business formation Source: HBR, 1998
  85. Critical success factor identified within global search New business formation Productivity Innovation
  86. Example of clusters in various industries Financial services • London City, New York Film • Hollywood, “Bollywood” Cars • Detroit, Toyota City, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart Watches Flowers Computer software Wine Biotech, life sciences and medical instruments • Switzerland, Japan • The Netherlands, Colombia • Silicon Valley, Bangalore • Barossa Valley, Rioja, Bordeaux, Southern Chile, parts of California • Boston’s Route 128, BioValley 21, Medicon Valley
  87. Clusters typology can be based on organization criteria: • industrial clusters (rural areas, no leader firm, shift from small-scale production to industry, informal relationships) – e.g.: Italian industrial districts • technological clusters (urban area, incubator role, professional relationships) – • SMEs concentration (rural areas, network activities, informal relationships) – • e.g.: aircraft industry in Toulouse/France, wood industry in Banská Bystrica region/Slovakia e.g: tourism industry system around a leader firm (urban area, hierarchical relationships) – e.g.: automotive sector in Montbéliard/France, Trnava/Slovakia (PSA Peugeot)
  88. -50 -100 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 UK Latvia Ireland Italy Bulgaria Austria Turkey Croatia Portugal Norway Belgium Sweden Finland Estonia Germany Slovakia Netherlands Slovenia Hungary France Romania Luxembourg Island Malta Lithuania Switzerland Spain Denmark Greece Czech Republic Poland Cyprus 100 Croatia Lithuania Slovenia Latvia Poland Cyprus Malta Finland Greece Estonia Turkey Bulgaria Slovakia Denmark Belgium Romania Ireland Germany Sweden Norway Portugal Luxembourg Spain UK Island France Austria Switzerland Czech… Italy Netherlands Hungary Clusters in Italy Companies active in cluster-like environment (%) 50 0 Others Cluster like environment -150 Partnership Diversity Index • Public administration • University and other education institutions • Public laboratories or research centers • Large companies • Small and Medium Enterprises • Start-ups / Newly established companies • Financial institutions Source: Eurobarometer, 2006
  89. Cluster: evolution of concept Geographic concentrations of interconnected companies, specialized suppliers, service providers, firms in related industries, and associated institutions in particular fields that compete but also cooperate. Michael E. Porter (1998) Network arrangements that, though embedded in, transcend geographical location, focus on global markets, operate as ad-hoc and/or long term business networks, are ICT enabled, and are based on dynamic aggregations of capabilities of different SMEs. Damaskopoulos et al (2008) Top-down approaches have proven ineffective to improve firms’ (esp. SMEs) innovation capacity Networks and open knowledge clusters, bottom-up conceived, are the alternative for SMEs to flourish
  90. CIFS megatrends Network society Sustainability Demographic development Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Complexity and acceleration Commercialization Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  91. CIFS megatrends Network society Sustainability Demographic development Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Immaterialization Globalization Democratization Productivity Commercialization Complexity and acceleration Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  92. A new society requires new ways of working 20th century • • • • • • • 21st century “Limited” social interaction Value in transactions Business stability Well-defined industries and hierarchies One-way markets Limited information Resource abundance Institutions • • • • • • • • • • • Pervasive social interaction Value in relationships Business flux Industry transformation Two-way markets Information abundance Resource constraints Forces Ambient communication Global information flows Social computing Market discontinuity Communities CONTROL Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
  93. Clusters and productivity » Better access to employees and suppliers » Access to specialized information » Complementarities » Access to institutions and public goods » Better motivation and measurement
  94. CIFS megatrends Network society Sustainability Demographic development Knowledge society Focus on health Polarization Innovation Globalization Immaterialization Democratization Complexity and acceleration Commercialization Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  95. Hyper specialization • As labor becomes more knowledge based and communication technology advances, the division of labor accelerates. • It leads to improvements in: » quality, » speed and » cost. Source: HBR, 2012
  96. Increasing talent mobility 250 214 Number (millian) 200 154,9 165,1 176,7 190,6 150 100 81,3 86,3 99,3 111 50 0 Year Source: Global Talent Strategy (2012), Oxford economics (2013)
  97. Managing talent, Leadership Development, and Strategic Workforce Planning Are Perceived as the Most Critical Topics Source: BCG/WFPMA, 2012. Modified by CIFS
  98. Open source innovation & Crowdsourcing
  99. Investment in product development 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 C u er m ct ct n el s p. ex an ch d o st n es al du du e oc pr el od s m ce em vi st er sy ro ra B S S P ro e or s ce ro k or es .P w et n si up P C S N u B Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.
  100. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Value Creation due to product development C u er m ct ct n el s p. ex an ch d o st n es al du du e oc pr el od s m ce em vi st er sy ro ra B S S P ro e or s ce ro k or es .P w et n si up P C S N u B Larry Keeley. www.doblin.com. 3000 projects examined.
  101. Business model innovators outperform traditional innovators
  102. Innovation is higher in clusters than elsewhere Innovative cluster companies 78 Inovative companies 74 63 56 53 53 44 41 33 29 29 20 14 Introduce new or Introduce new or Conduct market significantly significantly research for improved improved introducing new products or production products or services technology services 12 Carry out inContract out Register one or house research research to other more firms, universities international or research trademarks institutes Apply for one or more patents Source: Eurobarometer, 2006
  103. CIFS megatrends Network society Sustainability Demographic development Knowledge society Focus on health Immaterialization Polarization Globalization New business formation Democratization Complexity and acceleration Commercialization Technologic development Individualization Economic growth
  104. FoodNetwork: Innovation at Eye Level The aim: Main participants: • create growth within the food industry through networks, projects and activities • be the link that ensures visibility of the relevant • partners within the food industry support and facilitate existing and new clusters • Companies: Q food, Nørre Kærgård Bison, Delika, India Dan, Sans og samling Gastronomi, Lindbjerg Økoged, Sørvad Frilandgrise & fodboldgolf, Canstantia2, Selleberg, Gårdmosteriet Fyn, Højvang, Claudis Have, Mylius-Erichsens Bryghus, Jæger-Holding, Jens Møller Products, Canard, Danika-Grønt, Kokken og Jomfruen, Christian Vollstedt • Knowledge Institutions: Knowledge for-Food Development, Danish Technological Institute, Holstebro Technical College, AgroTech • 8 private consultants, Food Center Videbæk Four development groups: Novelty of the case activity: • Meat development group (new recipes based on bison meat) • Logistics group (develop a model for a joint sales and distribution) • Business Development workshop (individual projects development and counseling process) • Internationalization workshop (individual projects development and counseling process) • New approach to interaction between individual counseling and development in small groups • Particular groups who have been joined across the value chain and have worked together to develop concrete recipes or concepts. • ‘Innovation at eye level’ was an isolated project, but it is a method we will continue to develop and refine for future activities and projects.
  105. Kalundborg Symbiosis
  106. Clusters internationalization Suppliers » Networked projects Workforce training Manufactur ers » Cross‐clusters Cluster » Trans‐local relations Researchers Distributors Academic institutions
  107. Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.iff.dk Claus Kjeldsen ck@iff.dk +45 28 25 31 01

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