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  • 1. Superstition Vistas Interim Report Presentation A Sustainable Community for the Next Century June 30th 2009
  • 2. Interim Report Cover • Layout and design for the interim report • Key section headings • Overall flow and readability
  • 3. Intro and Visioning
  • 4. Intro and Visioning • An Oasis of • Sustainability Opportunity Consider how to make The purpose of the Superstition Vistas one Superstition Vistas of the most sustainable project is to develop communities in the a master plan to help country by focusing on guide future decision- balanced development, making regarding this water conservation and precious resource in capture, energy efficient the decades to come. buildings, and land use and transportation systems that reduce auto use.
  • 5. Recent Trends & Regional Values
  • 6. Recent Trends & Regional Values The qualitative and “In this world quantitative values nothing can be research included: • Sixty-three in-depth online said to be values interviews; • An Advanced Strategy Lab certain, except session with 35 regional death and leaders in Apache Junction, Arizona; taxes.” • An online survey of 1,068 Benjamin Franklin, year-round residents of Maricopa or Pinal counties 1789 18 years or older; and • An online survey of 211 “key citizens” active in business, non-profit and government.
  • 7. SUPERSTITION VISTAS POPULATION PROJECTIONS RANGE FROM 261,000 TO OVER 1 MILLION Superstition Vistas Cumulative Households by 2060 450,000 400,000 350,000 High-High Medium-High Low-High 300,000 High-Low Medium-Low Low-Low 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Superstition Vistas Average Annual Household Growth 2010-2060 LOW- LOW- MEDIUM- MEDIUM- HIGH- HIGH- LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH 2,000 3,700 2,800 5,700 4,000 8,000
  • 8. 100 MILLION PEOPLE WILL BE ADDED TO THE U.S. POPULATION BY 2040; 60 MILLION IN 20 MARKETS At Least 10 Million People by 2040
  • 9. Arizona Sun Corridor
  • 10. New Cities Emerge Along these Corridors. The two Regions are Connected by a well Planned Transportation System and Concentrated City Centers
  • 11. Regional Visioning Starts with Regional Values • Values are stable and enduring; life’s “tides” as opposed to the “waves.” • Values are widely shared and create consensus among diverse groups. • Satisfying ones’ values is the foundation of personal decision making.
  • 12. Regional Visioning Starts with Regional Values • Values are stable and enduring; life’s “tides” as opposed to the “waves.” • Values are widely shared and create consensus among diverse groups. • Satisfying ones’ values is the foundation of personal decision making.
  • 13. Regional Visioning Starts with Regional Values
  • 14. Regional Visioning Starts with Regional Values
  • 15. Scenario Overview • Testing Possible Development Strategies for Superstition Vistas • Each scenario is told as story of how the region could look, feel, and operate in the future.
  • 16. Scenarios for Superstition Vistas Plausible stories about the future:
  • 17. Develop a Range of Scenarios A B C D
  • 18. Scenario A Description
  • 19. Scenario A • Shown using overall density to represent future growth • “Density” = Households + Jobs per acre Scenario A
  • 20. Scenario A Shown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans Scenario A
  • 21. Perspective View of Scenario A Nort h
  • 22. Scenario B Description
  • 23. Scenario B • Shown using overall density to represent future growth • “Density” = Households + Jobs per acre Scenario B
  • 24. Scenario B Shown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans Scenario B
  • 25. Perspective View of Scenario B Nort h
  • 26. Scenario C Description
  • 27. Scenario C • Shown using overall density to represent future growth • “Density” = Households + Jobs per acre Scenario C
  • 28. Scenario C Shown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans Scenario C
  • 29. Perspective View of Scenario C Nort h
  • 30. Scenario D Description
  • 31. Scenario D • Shown using overall density to represent future growth • “Density” = Households + Jobs per acre Scenario D
  • 32. Scenario D Shown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans Scenario D
  • 33. Perspective View of Scenario D Nort h
  • 34. Scenario Comparison
  • 35. Land Developed (Acres) 120,000 111,246 95,014 100,000 80,000 63,964 60,000 45,000 40,000 20,000 0 A B C D
  • 36. Jobs-Housing Balance Scenario D 1.34 Scenario C 1.18 Scenario B 1.18 Scenario A 0.96 0 0.5 1 1.5
  • 37. Open Space (acres) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Urban Park Area Urban Open Space 40,000 Scenic Open Space 20,000 0 A B C D io io io o ar ar ar ri n n n na Sce S ce S ce S ce
  • 38. Carbon Footprint – Scenario Comparison
  • 39. Transportation Emissions (CO2) Tons of CO2 per Year 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Fleet 1: 22.5 MPG, 0% 1,500,000 Electric 1,000,000 Fleet 4: 60 MPG, 20% Electric or Renewable Fuel 500,000 0 A B C D io io i o i o n ar n ar n ar ar n Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 40. Building Emissions (CO2) Annual CO2 (ton/yr) 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Baseline 2,000,000 Best 1,000,000 0 A B C D rio rio rio rio na na na na Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 41. Incremental Improvement Costs $20,000,000,000 $18,000,000,000 $16,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 Good $6,000,000,000 Better $4,000,000,000 Best $2,000,000,000 $0 A B C D rio rio rio rio na na na na Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 42. Total Carbon Footprint (Building and Transportation Emissions) 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Baseline 3,000,000 Best 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 A B C D rio rio rio rio na na na na Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 43. Carbon Footprint – Conclusions 1. Compact forms of urban development lead to less carbon emissions than those generated by typical, suburban sprawl development. Superstition Vistas should exploit the “free savings” of utilizing a well-connected and clustered form of urban development, to the extent that is feasible. 2. The cost of implementing “best” energy efficiency practices is high. Although the carbon savings is significant, the costs may be prohibitive for the “savings” achieved. 3. Because of the prohibitive cost to upgrade individual buildings to “best” energy efficiency practices, it may make more sense to consider large-scale alternative energy generation investments such as investing in a solar thermal plant (see APS sidebar). Less efficient buildings could then be run on renewable power at a lower cost with a similar carbon footprint then spending billions to reduce the amount of non-renewable power that buildings consume. 4. Investments in energy efficient technology are better spent on individual residential buildings than on large-scale commercial and industrial buildings. Improving insulation and cooling efficiencies in homes is more cost-effective and leads to greater carbon savings.
  • 44. The APS Solana solar plant • While a similar plant on the Superstition Vistas is not planned, the site contains suitable land that could help make any future development more sustainable.
  • 45. Water Use • Sustainability entails understanding the natural water footprint of an area and utilizing strategies to emulate those natural conditions upon development.
  • 46. Water Recycling Parking Lot Rooftop Runoff Runoff Wastewater Treatment Constructed Natural Wetlands Wetlands Effluent Water Storage Tanks Irrigation for Grow-in Freshwater Ponds Golf Course/Landscape
  • 47. Potential Benchmarks • Potable water demand – 100 gpcd average annual • Irrigation demand – Reduce demand by 50% – Harvest 25% of rainfall • Cooling water – Recycle condensate
  • 48. Water Recycling • Grey water reuse • On-site treatment and reuse • Harvested rainfall • Reduced sewage treatment volume
  • 49. Landscaping Water Demand (gallons/sf/day) 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 Baseline - No 20,000,000 Rainwater Capture 15,000,000 Best - With 10,000,000 Rainwater Capture 5,000,000 0 A B C D rio rio rio o ri na na na na Sce S ce S ce S ce
  • 50. Total Water Demand (Gallons/capita/day - Building and Landscaping) 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 Baseline 40,000,000 Best 20,000,000 0 A B C D rio rio rio rio na na na na Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 51. Water Use - Conclusions • When best plumbing and landscaping practices are used in all the scenarios, the water use only differs by a margin of 5 million gallons/ day, a relatively minor difference. • Landscape irrigation is the most significant consumptive use of water. Potable water can be used, but its use should be minimized. Changing the landscaping practices to include landscaping practices that promote water retention, xeriscaping, and rainwater capture helps reduce potable water use. • Nonpotable water sources, such as grey water, treated sewage effluent, and raw water are more appropriate for feeding landcaping and can often be supplied at a lower cost. A greater investment may be required for infrastructure to deliver this water, but the increased cost may be offset by lower water and treatment costs.
  • 52. Urban Heat Island One of the most pressing issues for the Phoenix area is finding ways to reduce urban heat island. Temperatures in Phoenix are 5 to 6 degrees hotter than surrounding undeveloped areas – largely because the surfaces of urban areas trap and reradiate heat. With the average temperatures forecasted to rise several degrees in the summer over the next 50 years, keeping our cities cool is vital for urban livability, as well as to reduce the amount of energy used for cooling.
  • 53. Urban Heat Island Any development proposed for Superstition Vistas must include a comprehensive heat island strategy. 1. Incorporating light colored buildings, roofs, and streets; 2. Designing streets so that buildings provide shade during the heat of the day; 3. Planting drought-resistant shade trees with a large leaf canopy along streets and in public areas (even if it increases water consumption somewhat); 4. Directing storm water to feed water features and cool the air through evaporation; and 5. Designing neighborhoods to capture evening breezes.
  • 54. Economic Development • Of all the driving forces that will shape the growth of Superstition Vistas, economic development and job creation will be among the most important.
  • 55. Economic Development Catalysts for Southeast Region Higher Education New public or private university on site Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Influence Significance of John Wayne Airport Freeways Viable alternative to I-10 leads through SV Commuter Rail Connections to Phoenix and Pinal, within SV Health Care/Health Sciences Destination health campus, emphasis on research Major Employer Campuses/National Several regional HQs, one or two Headquarters national HQs Open Spaces and Parks/Recreation Comprehensive regional open space strategy Resort/Hospitality/Tourism/Entertainm Visitation patterns established; ent resort/convention hotels Cultural Amenities Cultural facilities of regional importance Energy Sustainability/Climate Leading edge of best practices
  • 56. Economic Development • We used the EDTAC findings to develop a 3 stage scenario development for Phase B • The EDTAC categorized industries into three tiers based on this area’s advantages • Industries with greater competitive advantage were assumed to move to the region first • We designed Development programs around their needs
  • 57. Industry Priorities Tier 1 – Early Phase Tier 2 - Intermediate Tier 3 – Late Stage Leading Higher Education Middle Research Parks Late Corp. Offices Clean Energy Gen Information Technology Finance/ Insurance Resort Advance Business Services Admin Support Construction Park Pharmaceuticals Telephone Call Centers Motion Picture Production Medical R&D/Bio Tech/AG Aerospace Warehouse Distribution Clean Energy Man R&D Advanced Manufacturing Environmental Consulting Data Processing Mining Support Activities Automotive  Convention and Trade Show Theme Parks Spectator Sports Outdoor Museums, Zoos Construction Sand and  Agents, Writers, Performers Spectator Sports Indoor Gravel Performing Arts Companies Golf Courses Food processing Plastics Tour Operators Waste Management
  • 58. Growth in tiers • We designed a full employment profile based on the initial “export” industries • We developed for each tier a set of basic and non-basic employment totals • The EDTAC Priority industries make up all basic jobs • 20% of jobs are basic and 80% are non- basic – Allocated evenly between the three tiers
  • 59. Tier 1 Basic Employment Higher Education 35% 30% Clean Energy Gen 25% Resort 20% Construction Park 15% Motion Picture 10% Production Warehouse 5% Distribution 0% Advanced Share of Employment Manufacturing
  • 60. Each Industry is assigned a basic building type for its employment Share of Retail Industrial Industry Employment space Office space Space Higher Education 35% 10% 90% Clean Energy Generation 15% 10% 90% Resort 15% 85% 15% Construction Park 15% 5% 95% Motion Picture Production 10% 5% 95% Warehouse Distribution 5% 5% 95% Advanced Manufacturing 5% 10% 90%
  • 61. Tier 1 • Each Phase followed the following process: – Leading Industry jobs were located using development types that approximate the type and total number of jobs coming to the region in the initial phase. We looked for areas that were most advantageous for the type of development – Supportive economic development (services and retail) were designed around the basic industrial “core) – Housing was located near the economic centers
  • 62. Tier 1 Totals Development Type Acres Allocated Urban Core 81 Traditional Downtown 152 Town Center 59 Business Park 328 Industrial 1604 Master Planned Community 631 Traditional Neighborhood (TND) 1416 Residential Subdivision 2862 Housing and Jobs Totals Total Dwelling Units 37,582 Total Employment 33,728 Retail 8,745 Office 11,756 Industrial 13,228
  • 63. Employment cores Tier 1 Basic Jobs Higher Education Clean energy generation New urban centers Resort Construction Park Film production Warehouse distribution Advanced Manufacturing
  • 64. Supportive Job growth
  • 65. Initial Industries Housing
  • 66. Total Phase 1 Housing
  • 67. Complete Phase 1
  • 68. Superstition Vistas Overview of Housing Analysis
  • 69. Current Rental Housing Compared with 2030 Demand (Phoenix MSA) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 <15k 15k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <35k <50k <75k <100k <150k Housing Stock Affordable at 30% of Income (2007) 2030 Projected Housing Units Demanded by Income
  • 70. Current Owner Housing Compared with 2030 Demand (Phoenix MSA) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 <15k 15k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <35k <50k <75k <100k <150k Housing Stock Affordable at 30% of Income (2007) 2030 Projected Housing Units Demanded by Income
  • 71. Superstition Vistas’ Balanced Housing Indicator • Assumed that Superstition Vistas’ 405,000 unit forecast could accommodate approximately 35% of the Phoenix MSA’s future demand • Created a “Proportional Housing Profile” for Superstition Vistas
  • 72. Superstition Vistas Proportional Housing Profile by Income (Rental) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 <35k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <50k <75k <100k <150k Projected Rental Units Demanded by Income
  • 73. Superstition Vistas Proportional Housing Profile by Income (Owner) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 <35k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <50k <75k <100k <150k Projected Owner Units Demanded by Income
  • 74. Estimating the Affordability of Prototype Units (Rental) 3 Story Apartment 8-Story Mixed Use Retail/Residential $950 month/rent $1,400 month/rent = = $56,000 annual $38,000 annual income income 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 <35k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <50k <75k <100k <150k Projected Rental Units Demanded by Income
  • 75. Estimating the Affordability of Prototype Units (Owner) 2 Story Townhome 2 Story Single Family $250,000 sales price $322,000 sales price = = $76,500 annual $66,000 annual income * income * 80,000 * Assumes 10% down 70,000 payment, 7% interest, 30 60,000 year term 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 <35k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <50k <75k <100k <150k Projected Owner Units Demanded by Income
  • 76. Estimating the Affordability of Prototype Units (Owner) Large Lot Single Family $570,000 sales price = $135,000 annual income * 80,000 * Assumes 10% down 70,000 payment, 7% interest, 30 60,000 year term 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 <35k 35k 50k 75k 100k 150k+ <50k <75k <100k <150k Projected Owner Units Demanded by Income
  • 77. Balanced Proportional Profile by Prototype 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR l/R l/R om am tS tai tai tor y tor y nh F Lo Re Re -S -S ow gle ge MU MU 8 3 yT Sin La r ry ry tor to ry to to 2-S 2-S 8-S 3-S
  • 78. Balanced Housing Index • We created a Balanced Housing Index to compare the housing in each scenario with an affordable, balanced mix of prototypes that meets the region’s future demand • Balanced Housing Index scores each scenario from 0-100 – Unbalanced fit = 0 – Perfect fit = 100
  • 79. Comparing Scenario A and the Proportional Profile by Prototype 250,000 Balanced 200,000 Housing Index Score 150,000 100,000 57 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR il/R il/R om am tS ta ta ory ory wn h le F eL o Re Re 8-St 3-St To ng rg MU MU ry Si La to ry to ry Sto t ory 2- 2- S 8- S 3-S Scenario A (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
  • 80. Comparing Scenario B and the Proportional Profile by Prototype 250,000 Balanced 200,000 Housing Index Score 150,000 100,000 80 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR il/R il/R om am tS ta ta ory ory wn h le F eL o Re Re 8-St 3-St To ng rg MU MU ry Si La to ry to ry Sto t ory 2- 2- S 8- S 3-S Scenario B (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
  • 81. Comparing Scenario C and the Proportional Profile by Prototype 250,000 Balanced 200,000 Housing Index Score 150,000 100,000 73 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR il/R il/R om am tS ta ta ory ory wn h le F eL o Re Re 8-St 3-St To ng rg MU MU ry Si La to ry to ry Sto t ory 2- 2- S 8- S 3-S Scenario C (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
  • 82. Comparing Scenario D and the Proportional Profile by Prototype 250,000 Balanced 200,000 Housing Index Score 150,000 100,000 48 50,000 0 . . s. s. ily es es Re Re e FR il/R il/R om am tS ta ta ory ory wn h le F eL o Re Re 8-St 3-St To ng rg MU MU ry Si La to ry to ry Sto t ory 2- 2- S 8- S 3-S Scenario D (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)
  • 83. Transportation Options by Scenario
  • 84. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 A B rio C na rio na rio D Sc e e na rio Sc ce e na S Sc
  • 85. Trip Counts – Walk & Bike 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 Percent of Trips 1,000,000 800,000 19% 600,000 D ar io 400,000 en Sc 19% C 200,000 i o ar Sc en 17% 0 B na r io A B rio ce C rio S 11% a en a rio D A rio io en r Sc na na ce a 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sc e S Sc en Sc
  • 86. Daily Transit Ridership 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 A B C D a rio a rio a rio rio en en en e na Sc Sc Sc Sc
  • 87. Proximity to Transit 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Households 100,000 Jobs 50,000 0 A B C D rio rio rio o ri na na na na Sce Sce Sce Sce
  • 88. Best Practices for Planning a Superstition Vistas Transportation Network • Prioritize local street connectivity • Connect regional transportation networks • Preserve possible transportation corridors • Develop a comprehensive trail system and link open space • Design an adaptable transportation system. • Develop mixed-use centers along transportation corridors • Locate transit stops within mixed-use centers • Implement shared parking strategies
  • 89. Lessons Learned • The scenarios are not plans to follow, but rather alternative futures based a series of assumptions. When compared against each other, the scenario analysis yields some important lessons learned.
  • 90. Lessons Learned 1. The lifeblood of any sustainable community is a vibrant economy 2. Economic Catalysts are critical ingredients 3. The key to developing a strong economy is to lead housing with employment 4. Housing needs will change 5. Build green and compact 6. Superstition Vistas will need a Transit System 7. Walking and biking could be important travel modes 8. Designing a city with appropriately spaced and well designed mixed use centers is more important than just density 9. All the components of sustainability: a vibrant local economy, equitable and marketable housing, and good environmental design must be balanced
  • 91. Next Steps 1. Craft the Preferred Scenario 2. Develop a Shared Vision for Superstition Vistas 3. Develop Best Practices and Strategies 4. Strategic Implementation 5. Open Houses and/or Other Public Events
  • 92. EXTRA SLIDES • Images…

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