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  • This talk is entitled: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Ecosystems and Livelihoods: The case for Global River Basins
  • By 2050 there will be 2.5 bill more people to feed than today. The impacts of Climate Change (CC) by then may also be significant CC and many other drivers of change “work” at the same time. Complex interactions between them result in big uncertainties CC Mitigation is about GHGs; Adaptation to CC -mostly about Water Climate change effects are supposed to increase the frequency of both floods and droughts and have contrasting impacts in various river basins including semi-arid and humid agro-ecosystems. The caption on rainfall variability in the Sahel as well as increasing temperature trends are testament to this. To illustrate this further;
  • - IWMI has numerous on-going projects addressing impact of CC in SE Asia, Africa and South America. This caption illustrates on-going work in various river basins. - Climate change will affect all facets of society and the environment, directly and indirectly, with strong implications for water and agriculture now and in the future. - The climate is changing at an alarming rate, causing temperature rise, shifting patterns of precipitation, and more extreme events.
  • Most river basins e.g. Senegal, Volta and Niger Basins experience spatial and temporal climatic variability. This variability is compounded by the uncertainty resulting from global climate change whose impact seems to be well identified for temperature but remains elusive for rainfall. Rainfall trends and patterns have an impact on stream flow, seasonal soil moisture, and agricultural productivity. Rainfall patterns and the occurrence of shortages during the rainy season (e.g. temporal distribution of rainfall) remains a major challenge. Additionally, extreme events such as droughts (related to rainfall) and flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases) further complicate the variability associated with the climatic regimes. Temperature rises in the Basin have been shown to be associated with climate change.
  • IWMI has numerous tools and methods being used for CC related studies The conceptual framework shows some of the tools being used to assess CC related impacts on communities in some river basins such as the Volta and Nile as well as the Limpopo basin in Africa. The anticipated outcome is that the tools provide informed decision making in order to have viable recommendations that result in resilient, adaptive communities
  • Based on IWMI’s Comprehensive assessment, a fifth of the world’s people, more than 1.2 billion, live in areas of physical water scarcity, lacking enough water for everyone’s demands. About 1.6 billion people live in water-scarce basins, where human capacity or financial resources are likely to be insufficient to develop adequate water resources. Beyond the impacts of CC on water scarcity; numerous reasons underpin the water resources problems in global river basins: growing population pressure, lack of commitment to water and poverty, inadequate and inadequately targeted investment, insufficient human capacity, ineffective institutions, and poor governance. This therefore requires a concerted effort to mitigate CC and its associated impacts, a good entry point is sustainable water management
  • The point here – we evaluate vulnerability to CC at different scales and in terms of various indicators. Some 20 of indicators were used to evaluate drought pattern world wide; many of those are relevant to CC too (right maps), particularly those which are not related to hydrometeorology (top right map). We go deeper in the analysis within countries (left map) too. We completed analysis of CC impacts on agriculture in Greater Mekong Region and are currently doing a similarly comprehensive study in Nepal.
  • 2 graphs display relative changes in seasonal flows between different scenarios. Blue illustrates changes caused by CC. Red corresponds to changes related to water infrastructure development. Green integrates changes from both climate change and water infrastructure development. The X axis localizes gauge stations along Mekong mainstream. CC causes flow increases during both wet and dry seasons. Increase is quite homogenous along the river during wet season as a result of uniform rainfall change over the basin. During the dry season, the flow increase is mainly caused by rainfall increase and snow melt in the upper catchment which explain why that flow increase slightly declines when moving downward. Impacts of water infrastructure development are in opposite directions during wet and dry seasons. And this contrast is due to the way hydropower dams are operated: filling during wet season cause flow decline observed here. Relative changes are more moderate downstream as most of dams are located in upstream mountainous areas. During dry season, massive water release to produce electricity explain the increased flows. Combined effect of both cc and development scenarios are different between 2 seasons. Wet season: flow changes are minor and ranges from -8 to +5% as climate change and development effects partly compensate each other. During dry season, both effects of cc and dvlp scenarios are additive and result in flow increases up to 70%.
  • Climate change policy is increasingly supporting greater reliance on bioenergy as an alternative to fossil fuel–based energy. But this is not consistently coupled with the water discussion. Work conducted by Kizito et al 2012 on Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in both Ghana and Mali indicates increased ET rates and relatively less groundwater recharge when conventional crop production is replaced by biofuels. The Comprehensive Assessment estimates that with heavy reliance on bioenergy the amount of agricultural evapotranspiration in 2050 to support increased bio-energy use will be about what is depleted for all of agriculture today. Reliance on bioenergy will further intensify competition for water and land, so awareness of the “double-edged” nature of bioenergy needs to be raised and requires re-thinking the policy on CC.
  • The thinking on water storage has to be re-visited: Flexible water storage options: Water storage options, from ensembles of small reservoirs to natural wetlands, are among the most practical, immediate and cost-effective responses to existing variability and climate-induced water scarcity. Soil management: Soil moisture is part of the hydrological cycle. It acts as an interface between runoff, evapotranspiration and infiltration into groundwater aquifers. Farming practices that retain the right amount of soil moisture are an important adaptation strategy. Groundwater banking: Discharge from hydropower dams to recharge aquifers helps ensure that farmers and pastoralists have sufficient and reliable supplies of water under increasingly variable and severe drought conditions. Explore IWMI’s solutions for: Water storage planning and management – wetlands – soil improvement – conservation tillage practices – groundwater management
  • First picture – snapshot of distribution of floods in any moment – August 2010, weekly The second one – inundation of irrigated area in Pak – green is irrigated area blue – inundation. Rice and cotton – high res around 23 meters
  • The bar chart represents glaciated areas, glacial numbers and ice volume for 6 major Asian basins. As indicated here, the Indus has the biggest glaciated areas and ice volume
  • Land-use changes and water diversions for agriculture have been major drivers of the degradation and loss of ecosystems. Greater food production has come at the expense of biodiversity and ecosystem services—regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural—that are often important to poor people’s livelihoods. Process is stakeholder driven Stakeholders identify key issues (based on their activities) in the landscape that impact ecosystem services Framework for biophysical-social platform linkages Livelihoods and wellbeing of many poor people are dependent on these services New ways of thinking also ought to consider the contribution or the lack thereof of built infrastructure viz avis natural landscapes
  • Work conducted in the Volta Basin on quantification and valuation of ecosystem services looked at the impact of erosion and sediment in the basin. Results indicate that the spatial patterns of sediment yield were higher in the northern portions of the basin. This area had a sediment yield of the range 20-60 t ha-1yr-1 which is an area with a high density of small reservoirs while the southern portion show less than 3 t ha-1yr-1 Sub-basin areas associated with net sediment losses greater than the threshold in the Basin (about 20 t ha-1yr-1) are characterized by steep slopes, poor vegetative cover and high population pressures.   Assess how both erosion/sedimentation and burning relate to flooding Feedback results to multi-stakeholder platform for Policy and IWRM interventions
  • Strengthening of existent partnerships and forming new ones to rise to the challenge of CC is essential. Within the CGIAR; IWMI is closely working with the CRP7 :CCFAS group to address CC issues; new partnerships are welcome so as to share innovative solutions towards addressing the CC challenges.
  • Adding water management as a solution for adaptation to climate change: Over two decades of research and experience have convinced us that technical solutions by themselves are of no practical use to water managers or water users unless they are supported by people with power to make decisions and ensure that solutions are integrated into governance and institutional processes. IWMI’s research suggests that these listed adaptation options for agricultural and water management actions are appropriate "no regrets" responses to climate change Adding water management as a mitigation solution to climate change: There is no question that we must take steps to limit our emissions of greenhouse gases. The challenge is to create ‘no regret’ mitigation solutions that will not punish the poor or compromise our capacity to grow food, fuel and the raw materials for the thousands of domestic, industrial and cultural products that drive our economies. Any adverse impacts on water will definitely be a cause for regret. The listed mitigation options on the right stand out vividly based on IWMI’s research
  • This work has been as a result of input from various IWMI staff across several regions and offices as listed on this slide

Transcript

  • 1. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources,Ecosystems and Livelihoods in Various Global River Basins Fred Kizito and Vladimir Smakhtin International Water Management Institute (IWMI) UNFCC Technical Workshop on Water 18-20 July 1 Water for a food-secure world
  • 2. BackgroundNavrongo, Northern Ghana Water for a food-secure world
  • 3. IWMI’s Research and Climate ChangeNumerous otheron-goingprojects in bothAfrica and SEAsia Water for a food-secure world
  • 4. Climate Change Impact on Agro-ecosystems 1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact: a) Stream flow b) Seasonal soil moisture c) Agricultural productivity 2. Extreme events a) Droughts (related to rainfall) b) Flooding (has +ves and -ves) 3. Temperature rises (associated with CC) 4 Water for a food-secure world
  • 5. Tools and Methods on climate change related research Broad Climate change related Tools Outputs IWRM Challenges impacts on and Methods Water allocation, communities Water balance, Sedimentation estimates , - Drought: Impacts agriculture flood vulnerability, Water Yields - Upstream-Downstream conflicts m e g a g n E r e d l o h e k a t S t n e - Community flooding Ecosystem Services Constraints - Reduced domestic water supply modeling and valuation, R t n e i l i s e land use planning c f r t I e g a k n i L a g n i l e d o M ,A Recommend m o C e v i t p a d s e i t i n u m s o i r a n e c S Stakeholder i s y l n a feedback on Research and challenges action-oriented interventions Sedimentation/ - Siltation of reservoirs Community - Reduced storage volume Siltation/ - Soil erosion: Shallow soils involvement and Erosion - Disrupts aquatic life feedback for erosion - Impact on water quality control, gender tools for empowering communitiesIWRM: Integrated Water Resources ManagementInVEST: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offsComMod: Companion Modelling (Social simulation Platform)Wat-a-GAME: Water Game (Social simulation Platform)WEAP: Water Evaluation and PlanningSWAT: Soil Water Assessment Tool Water for a food-secure world
  • 6. Water Scarcity and Climate Change1/3 of the world’s population live for basins that have to deal with water scarcity Water in a food-secure world
  • 7. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate ChangeBasins GloballyComposite Vulnerability – in terms of exposureto CC, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Socio-economic Vulnerability – in terms of diversity of employment, income and crops Countries Ratio of total Storage to Mean Annual Drought Deficit Water for a food-secure world
  • 8. Quantifying Impacts of CC and Development on Water Resources: Mekong Relative flow changes along Mekong mainstream: Impacts: 15 WET SEASON (A2) Pakse Kratie + Chiang Khan Nong Khai Chiang Saen Luang Prabang Mukdahan 10 Wet season flow change (%) Stung Treng Tens of dams B2 Vientiane Nakhon Phanom Khong Chiam 5 planned Distance from river mouth (km) 0 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 -5 -7+20% rain -10 increase by _ 2050 -15 -20 UPSTREAM Climate change Development Climate change+Development DOWNSTREAM 80 DRY SEASON (A2) + Chiang Khan Nong Khai 70 Chiang Saen Dry season flow change (%) Luang Prabang Pakse 60 Mukdahan Vientiane Kratie 50 Nakhon Phanom Khong Chiam Stung Treng 40 30 Dams only 20 CC only (A2 10 Combined impacts Distance from river mouth (km) 0 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 Climate change Development Climate change+Development Water for a food-secure world
  • 9. Re-thinking CC Policy P r e c ip ita tio nAddress the Energy Water Food Nexus N E e t c h a n g e in s o il m o is tu r e v a p o tr a n s p ir a tio n G ro u n d w a te r re c h a rg e S u rfa c e R u n o ff (a ) (b ) 120 P r e -F D I: F a llo w F D I:J a tr o p h a 240 P r e -F D I: M a iz e , S o y b e a n a n d Y a m F D I:J a t r o p h a , M a iz e , Soybean and Yam 200 A n n u a l M o is tu r e F lu x e s (M illio n m 3 ) A n n u a l M o is tu r e F lu x e s (M illio n m 3 ) 80 160 120 40 80 40 0 0 -4 0 -4 0 -8 0 -1 2 0 -1 6 0 -8 0 -2 0 0 -2 4 0 -1 2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 A ll Y e a r s A ll Y e a r s Kizito et al., 2012 Water for a food-secure world
  • 10. Re-thinking Water Storage:physical storage continuum Water for a food-secure world
  • 11. Water Storage for CC Adaptation Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC adaptation In many countries, climate variability is high and increasing, but water storage is low Inability to regulate runoff by storage is a key contributor to high levels of food insecurity and poverty Storage systems need to be able to function across a range of CC scenarios – due to the associated uncertainty Water for a food-secure world
  • 12. CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING: South Asia Continuous monitoring of spatial extent of flooding using public satellite data 2010, August, 250 m resolution Estimating frequency and risk of flooding with initially 250 m resolution Estimation of GHGs emissions from flooded areas South Asia- first; globally – next 2010, August, Pakistan, 20m resolution On-going efforts within IWMI on flood forecasting in other regions Water for a food-secure world
  • 13. Glaciers, CC and Impacts on Water Availability: 6 Major Asian Basins Compiling basin-wide data on glaciers Glaciers distribution by size = sensitivity to CC The role of seasonal snow vs role of glaciers Evaluating critical temperatures Water for a food-secure world
  • 14. Ecosystem Services and the Landscape Approach Regulating Land use State Soil Provisioning Rainfall/ Cultural Dam Releases Transition Siltation/ Supporting Erosion Result FloodingModified after Eco-Agriculture Partners onbehalf of the Landscapes for People, Food andNature Initiative, 2012 14 Water for a food-secure world
  • 15. Vulnerable areas: Viable interventions Water for a food-secure world
  • 16. IWMI and Collaborating Partners: IWMI and Collaborating Partners: Together we can see the Horizon Together we can see the HorizonResearch Collaborations: The challenges and opportunities raised by thenexus of water resources and climate change require development of newcollaborations and strengthening existent partnerships Water for a food-secure world
  • 17. Adding water management to adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change Improved livelihoods Mitigati on Adaptati Manage water on for afforestation Ou and reforestation r Pla Transform water Address the n et governance Energy-Water- Ea Food Nexus rth Revisit water storage Manage dams for Vibrant multi-purpose use Manage water and demands Measure water sustainabl Increase water footprint e productivity ecosystems Produce more Reduce food food per unit of waste water Monitor water and provide feedbackDual-approach: A combinationfor a food-secure worldmitigation options Water of adaptation and
  • 18. • Vladimir Smakhtin (IWMI, Colombo) • Prathapar Sanmugam (IWMI, India) • Paul Pavelic (IWMI, India) • Luna Bharati (IWMI, Nepal) • Giriraj Amarnath (IWMI, Colombo) • Guillame Lacombe (IWMI, Laos) • C.T. Hoanh (IWMI, Laos) • K.P. Palanisami (IWMI, India) • Matthew McCartney (IWMI-Ethiopia) • Nishadi Eriyagama (IWMI, Colombo) • Pay Drechsel (IWMI, Colombo) • Liqa Rashid (IWMI, Ghana) • Oxana Savoskul (IWMI, Colombo) • Tushaar Shah (IWMI, India)• IWMI CLIMATE CHANGE WEB SITE : www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx Thank you Water for a food-secure world