H2 Gambling Capital_gaming-in-holland_stats
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H2 Gambling Capital_gaming-in-holland_stats H2 Gambling Capital_gaming-in-holland_stats Presentation Transcript

  • Onshore  Interac-ve  Gambling   in  the  Netherlands   Simon  Holliday   H2  Gambling  Capital     Gaming  in  Holland   Amsterdam   23  June  2014       www.h2gc.com  
  • AGENDA   •  Interac-ve  Gambling  Market  Update   •  EU28  Market  Trends   •  Dot  Country  Markets  -­‐  Recent  Performance   •  Current  NL  Gambling  Market   •  Dot  NL  Expecta-ons  /  Changes  
  • Interac-ve  Gambling  Market  Update   •  Con-nued  Overall  Strong  Growth   •  Dot  Com  Markets   •  Developing  Regions   •  Product  Innova-on   •  Mobile  Channel   •  Weaker  Performance   •  Onshore  Regulated  Markets   •  Poker   •  2013  Globally  Interac-ve  Gambling  Up  7.8%  to  €26.5bn   •  Current  Year  a  Further  13%  of  Growth  to  €30.0bn   •  Globally  8.3%  of  Gross  Gambling  Revenues  are  Now  Interac-ve  (8.9%  14  /10.2%  18)   •  Highest  in  the  Nordics  where  mid-­‐30%'s   •  UK  mid-­‐to  High  20%'s   •  Southern  Europe  s-ll  Low  to  Mid-­‐Single  Digit   •  Dutch  Market  Currently  11%  -­‐  Onshore  Regula-on  by  2018  14%  (20%  Gross  Win  Tax)  to  18%  (10%  Gross  Win  Tax)   •  Onshore  Ac-vity  Accounted  for  40%  of  Global  Interac-ve  Revenues  2013  /  Expected  to  be  52%  by  2018   •  Low  Point  Just  Under  30%  in  2006  
  • EU28  Market  Trends   •  All  Gambling  €11.6bn  Gross  Win  2013  -­‐  14%  of  Total  with  41%  Onshore   •  14.2%  Growth  Expected  in  Current  Year   •  Bebng  and  Gaming  Only  €10.1bn  -­‐  20%  of  Total  with  33%  Onshore   •  12.5%  Growth  Expected  in  the  Current  Year   •  UK   -­‐   Largest   European   Market   €2.96bn   (bebng   and   gaming   only)   29%   of   the   Total   European  Market   •  Just  18%  Onshore  (Going  Forward  PoC  to  Capture  Taxa-on  for  the  Treasury)     •  6   Fully   Compe--ve   Markets   Up   and   Running   with   Bebng   and   Gaming   Gross   Wins   Totalling  €2bn  in  2013   •  Another  €1.3bn  in  Monopoly  Markets  or  Those  Restricted  to  Land  Licensees   •  A  Number  of  Other  Markets  Expected  2014-­‐15      
  • EU  Dot  Country  Markets  -­‐  Recent  Performance   •  Current  Year  Expec-ng  7.9%  Dot  Country  Mkt  a  Growth  vs  EU28  Average  14.9%   •  Lower  GDP  Growth   •  Total  Value  Onshore  Bebng  and  Gaming  Ac-vity  Approaching  €2.1bn   •  Offshore  Ac-vity  Sta-c  c€900m   •  Overall  Ini-al  Market  Upside  Expected  Upon  Onshore  Regula-on   •  Combined   On   and   Offshore   Will   Grow   the   Market   –   Amount   will   Depend   on   Tax   Rate   /   Any   Other   Restric-ons   •  New  Onshore  Market  Will  Not  Surpass  the  Size  of  Previous  Offshore  Market  at  20%  Gross  Win  Tax  (Closer   to  15%  to  Achieve  this)   •  Channelling  –  Average  c70%   •  Can  Vary  From  Less  than  50%  (Highest  Tax  /  Lack  of  Product  Ver-cals  /  No  Interna-onal  Pooling)   •  To  85%   •  Op-mal  Likely  to  be  95-­‐97%   •  Structural  Restric-ons  on  Growth  Beyond  Market  Launch   •  Where  Applicable  Domes-c  Liquidity  Bigger  Factor  /  Cri-cal  Mass  to  Develop  Momentum   •  Predominantly  the  Same  Operators  Moving  Onshore  /  Development  of  Local  Monopolies'  Offer   •  Ini-al  Land-­‐grabs  -­‐  Market  Sehles  Operators  Cau-ous  as  Paying  Tax  on  Bonuses  which  can  be  as  High  as   20%  in  Dot  Com  Gaming   •  Affiliates  Opera-ons    
  • Current  NL  Gambling  Market   •  Netherlands  15th  Largest  Gambling  Market  in  the  World  (7th  Largest  in  the  World   •  Average  Gross  Win  per  Adult  €164  (25th    World/  14th  EU28)  –  EU28  Average  €193   •  %  of  GDP  Accounted  for  by  Gambling  c0.40%  (EU28  Average  c0.65%)   0.0# 0.5# 1.0# 1.5# 2.0# 2.5# 2003# 2004# 2005# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# Land# Interac6ve# Be#ng& 4%& Gaming& 52%& Lo1eries& 44%& NL Total Gambling Gross Win (€bn)"NL Gross Win by Product" Be#ng& 14%& Gaming& 48%& Lo1eries& 38%& EU Gross Win by Product" EU Total Gambling Gross Win (€bn)" 0" 10" 20" 30" 40" 50" 60" 70" 80" 90" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" Land" Interac5ve"
  • Dot  NL  Expecta-ons  –  On  Going  Changes   • Changes  to  Our  Approach  /  Key  Drivers   •  IMF  GDP  Forecasts   •  Evolu-on  of  Benchmark  Markets   •  Adjustments  in  the  Mix  of  Benchmark  Markets   •  Allowance  for  any  Change  of  Pace  in  Current  Marke-ng   •  Changes   in   Regula-on   /   More   Detailed   Assessment   of   the   Exact   Similari-es   /   Differences  with  the  Dot  DK  Regula-on  
  • Dot  NL  Expecta-ons   •  Currently  An-cipated  that  the  Offshore  Dutch  Market  will  be  Worth  c€225m  in  the  Current   Year   •  With  a  20%  Gross  Win  Tax   •  Onshore  Bebng  and  Gaming  Ac-vity  First  Full  Year  Could  Range  From  c€150m  (29%   GWT)  to  c€300m  (10%  GWT)   •  Ini-al  Bebng  and  Gaming  Channelling  Could  Vary  from  60%  to  90%   •  Latest  Update  of  Model  /  Start  Date   •  Execu-ve  Market  Report   0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 350" 400" 2013" 2014e" 2015e" 2016e" 2017e" 2018e" Onshore" Offshore" Be#ng& 47%& Casino& 32%& Poker& 11%& Bingo/ Other& 10%& NL Interactive Gambling Gross Win (€m)" NL Interactive Gambling Gross Win by Product"
  • Further  Details:     Simon  Holliday   H2  Gambling  Capital   simon.holliday@h2gc.com     www.h2gc.com   H2  Annual  Gambling  Data  &  Market  Intelligence  Subscrip:on  Service       Online   Access   for   Unlimited   Users   within   an   Organisa5on   to   Over   250   Datasets,   Reports   and   Updates   with   c1,000   New   and   Updated   Pos5ngs   Expected   in   the   Coming  12  Months     Including   Netherlands   Updated   Dataset   /   Execu5ve   Market   Report(Slide   Deck   Format)  in  July