Iseu efficiency april2011 final

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Iseu efficiency april2011 final

  1. 1. Avril 9, 2011<br />Sufficiency, <br />from production to usage <br />Frédéric Chomé <br />Factor-Xthe Climate Consulting Group sprl <br />ISEU Final meeting <br />
  2. 2. (Free) ENERGY <br />The Skyis the limit<br />Really ?<br />2<br />Plenty of free lunches ahead of us ! <br />
  3. 3. World energy Consumption<br />Nuke<br />Hydro<br />Gas<br />Oil<br />Coal<br />2000-2050: <br />Energy x 3<br />Population x 1,5<br />1950 – 2000 :<br />Energy x 5<br />Population x 2<br />Les émissions de CO2 provenant de combustibles fossiles <br />ont été multipliées par plus de 4 depuis 1950 (source AIE 2004)<br />
  4. 4. There’s much more Energy than Oil<br />Reserves : 400+ Gtep<br />Consumption : 11 GTtep<br />If 2% growth <br />=> less than 100 years<br />
  5. 5. Renewables : Not anfull-optionfor Europe<br />Green energypreservesitsmarketshare in a flat economy but NO increase ! <br />Green energy = <br />½ of growth in energyneeds<br />1/3 of growth in Elecneeds<br />Over 1990 - 2007<br />141 Mtoe/year<br />7,8 % of primaryenergy<br />consumption<br />AVG +6 Mtoe / yr 2004-2007<br />+10 Mtoe 2006 & 2007<br />10 Mtoe/year<br />0.6 % of primaryenergy<br />Consumption<br />Source : Observatoire de l’Énergie, ADEME, CEREN<br />1807 Mtep/year for Gross Consumption<br />
  6. 6. NegaWatt Plan :<br />The Energy Challenge <br />POLITICS<br />PRIORITY<br />Less<br />Better<br />(with the remaining) <br />Clean<br />(1/2 of actual<br />consumption)<br />Source: http://www.negawatt.org/<br />
  7. 7. FromEnergy to GreenhouseGases Emissions : <br />1st Barrier<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Flux Naturels<br />Atmosphère<br />Biosphère<br />Océans<br />Lithosphère<br />Stocks et flux de carbone<br />Flux anthropiques<br />14 Gteq Carbone ou 51 Gteq CO2 par an <br />8<br />En milliards de tonnes de carbone par an<br />61,5<br />60<br />92<br />90<br />0,8<br />0,04<br />10+ Gteq Carbone non recyclés annuellement<br />Émissions totales : 150 GtC<br />Séquestration : 153.5 GtC<br />
  9. 9. 350 ppm pour 80% de certitude < 2°C <br />9<br />Source : Hansen & al. 2009<br />Ce que demande la science <br />CO2 fossile : -85% till 2030<br />
  10. 10. Country carbonfootprint<br />Easy to compute<br />but <br />partial referentials<br />10<br />
  11. 11. UNFCCC Carbonfootprint : GHG Inventory<br />Belgium2007 : 132 millions teqCO2<br />Electricity<br />Waste<br />Transports<br />Industry<br />Buildings<br />Agriculture<br />1 %<br />18 %<br />30 %<br />22 %<br />8 %<br />21 %<br />- 9%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 15%<br />Depuis 1990<br />+ 20%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 24%<br />Depuis 1990<br />+ 13%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 12%<br />Depuis 1990<br />Carbon production in Belgium (approx) <br />Source :climat.be<br />Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet<br />
  12. 12. How Much GHG in Belgium’s GDPEn Belgique en 2008 : 132,6 millions teqCO2<br />Source : climaterchange.be<br />Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet<br />X 5,7 <br />161,1 millions teqCO2<br />752,3 millions teqCO2<br />Énergie<br />Déchets<br />Transports<br />Industrie<br />Bâtiments<br />Agriculture<br />1 %<br />18 %<br />32 %<br />22 %<br />7 %<br />20 %<br />26,1 MtCO2eq<br />1,3 MtCO2eq<br />24,1 MtCO2eq<br />41,4 MtCO2eq<br />28,6 MtCO2eq<br />9,1 MtCO2eq<br />+21,5 %<br />+467 %<br />28,5 MtCO2eq<br />591,2 MtCO2eq<br />Source : Agence pour le commerce extérieur<br />Source : SPF économie, brochure Transport 2009/10<br />Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges <br />
  13. 13. EVOLUTION 1995 – 2010-11% ou +49 % ? <br />+49%<br />-11%<br />GHG increasequickerthan GDP !!!<br />Import/GDP<br />94%<br />46%<br />337<br />254<br />GDP Md€<br />750<br />500<br />MTeqCO2<br />+33%<br />Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges <br />
  14. 14. Partial referential<br />Strangepolitics<br />NO good decisions<br />Marginal operationalefficiency gains with no account of production & consumptionbehaviors<br />14<br />
  15. 15. 15<br />Centralized Intermittent Energy ; <br />WindMills production concentrated (few countries) <br />Environmental ROI : 6 years<br />Investor’s ROI : 0,5 year<br />Green certificate bonus = 850 €/ tCO2 (avoided)<br />CO2 marketprice : 13 €/tCO2<br />
  16. 16. 8 to 10 years for construction GHG payback in Belgium<br />16<br />Financial ROI : 20%<br />GHG ROI : 10% max <br />But the system allows to decentraliseenergy production and to tend towardsenergysufficency for buildings <br />
  17. 17. Making money withenergysavings ? <br />Bank savingsaccount : 2% return<br />Solar PV panels : 20% return  do it for money<br /><ul><li>Energysavings return
  18. 18. Versus 560 eur / year</li></ul>Of green certificates for <br />
  19. 19. 18<br />Housingconstruction growth = 3 x population growth<br />Yearly new constructions < 1% of total existing constructions<br />Natural materials DO REALLY HELP to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction phase<br />Building = designed by an architect, <br />sometimeforgotten fluxes <br />Buildings CO2 = CO2 Building phase + Lifetime CO2Energy usages + Lifetime CO2Induced transport + CO2Demolition<br />Buildings CO2 = CO2/kWh x kWh/m2 x m2/resident xResidents/householdx Nb households+ Mobility of inhabitants<br />
  20. 20. Bilan de travaux de construction et de réhabilitation<br />New buildings are 6 x more carbon intensive thanretrofit<br />45 years of earnings as pay-back of construction<br />Equiv. To building Lifetime<br />NO real gains <br />ImproveSavings (Commuting, energy,…)<br />Reduce Construction impacts <br />Earnings/year<br /> BEFORE <br /> AFTER<br />
  21. 21. 20<br />Transport GHG rose by 30% from 1990 <br />Efficiency per km has been divided by 2 since 1990 <br />+ Citizens<br />having<br />+ cars<br />Doingeach<br />+ km <br />CO2 = CO2/km xkm/car x Nb cars/householdx Nb households<br />
  22. 22. 21<br />Replacement effect: The better the performance, the longer youkeep the car <br />
  23. 23. Grey GHG: 3.500 kg CO2e<br />Lifetimeenergy GHG : 1400 kg CO2e<br />NO global Efficiency<br />
  24. 24. Lighting<br />All values in kg CO2e for 50.000 h in Belgium<br />ConventionalHalogen<br />Production : 88<br />Use : 521 <br />TOTAL : 600<br />LED (Belgium) <br />Production : 6,2<br />Use : 91<br />TOTAL : 97,2<br />LED (China) <br />Production : 30,5<br />Use : 195<br />TOTAL : 225,5<br />
  25. 25. Towards green Businesses<br />24<br />
  26. 26. Relative vs. Absolute Decoupling<br />Business<br />Environmental impacts<br />Zero impact Growth<br />Relative Decoupling<br />Action plan<br />AbsoluteDecoupling<br />Time<br />Footprint t0<br />
  27. 27. Green businesses ? <br />26<br />Low Tech, LowCost<br /><ul><li> Local production for local markets
  28. 28. Inspiration fromDev. Countries
  29. 29. R – activities</li></ul>Refuse, Reduce, reuse,, repair, repurpose, recycle, recover, respect, rethink, …, <br /><ul><li>Closedloopeconomy(shortage value)
  30. 30. PSS & Idlingcapacity
  31. 31. Shorter value chains , vertical integration…</li></ul>Green =<br /><ul><li> New services, products
  32. 32. Alternative marketing
  33. 33. Alternative business models, pricing
  34. 34. New values, like TRUST</li></ul>High Tech, Capital intensive <br /><ul><li>Renewableenergy production
  35. 35. Electric Transport
  36. 36. Alternative fuels
  37. 37. Dessalinisation
  38. 38. Green-IT (ECO-TIC)
  39. 39. Green Buildings
  40. 40. CarbonCredits, markets
  41. 41. Housingretrofit = jobs provider</li></ul>Financial bubbles<br /><ul><li>Rawmaterials
  42. 42. Crops
  43. 43. fresh water
  44. 44. Ground</li></ul>Green Economy 2.0 <br />Small scale, slow, network, collaborative lifestyles,<br />Green = differentand cheaper<br /> Min 90% of Marketshare<br />Green Economy 1.0<br />Large classical corporations,<br />Green = better and more expensive<br /> max 10% of Marketshare<br />
  45. 45. Initiating changes, evaluating risks <br />27<br />Product <br />id<br />≠<br />New complementaryproductlines, close loops<br />« Marginal gains » : optimisation, efficiency<br />id<br />Job / Mission<br />New markets, service economy<br />New vision, mission & business models<br />≠<br />
  46. 46. 28<br />
  47. 47. Money Money Money <br />Do not expect help fromothers…. <br />…Do it for yourself<br />29<br />
  48. 48. 30<br />Source : climatechange.be ; statbel ; eex<br />CO2 marketPrices<br />CO2 EARNINGS<br /><ul><li>GDP Belgium 2008: 344 676 Million €
  49. 49. GHG Belgique 2008 : 132,6 Million Tonnes CO2éq.
  50. 50. Added Value / tCO2e: 2600 Euros
  51. 51. Ratio withmarketprice x 173</li></ul>15 €/t CO2<br />Source : Stern Review reviewed (2009) ; <br />Mc Kinsey 2009 <br />How much to « save the planet » ? <br />Whatdoeseconomists tell us <br /><ul><li>Stabilise GHG concentrations 2 to 3 % World GDP / year
  52. 52. Costs of inaction : 20% World GDP at least
  53. 53. Costs if 10 more yearsbefore actions x 5 for costs of action & inaction</li></ul>75 €/t CO2<br />NOW ! <br />READY to allow 3% of your Gross margin to climate plans ? <br />
  54. 54. BeforeLeavingyou…<br /><ul><li> Environmental Risks accross the full Value Chain
  55. 55. What if ?
  56. 56. Indirect >> direct
  57. 57. Dependency vs impacts
  58. 58. Less , Better, Differently, someting else
  59. 59. From product to service
  60. 60. Increase lifetime & guarantee, making things last longer, PSS
  61. 61. Promote vertical integration (margin management) & B2C
  62. 62. Initiate, Develop and conslidatepostivie activities : More fun, more earnings, less environmental impacts.
  63. 63. New economic models for new activities : Green grey , lifecyclecosts, etc. </li></ul>Important changes are made by people like you and me <br />A R E Y O U I N ? <br />31<br />
  64. 64. Thank You !<br />20, Rue du Château <br />6536 Thuin - BELGIUM<br />Frederic.Chome@gmail.com<br />Frédéric Chomé<br />+32 (0) 474 701 832<br />www.theccgroup.eu<br />Skype : fredchome<br />Blog Demande à FredO :<br /> http://www.terra-economica.info/Demande-a-FredO,608.html<br />32<br />

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