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Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
Iseu efficiency april2011 final
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Iseu efficiency april2011 final

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  • 1. Avril 9, 2011<br />Sufficiency, <br />from production to usage <br />Frédéric Chomé <br />Factor-Xthe Climate Consulting Group sprl <br />ISEU Final meeting <br />
  • 2. (Free) ENERGY <br />The Skyis the limit<br />Really ?<br />2<br />Plenty of free lunches ahead of us ! <br />
  • 3. World energy Consumption<br />Nuke<br />Hydro<br />Gas<br />Oil<br />Coal<br />2000-2050: <br />Energy x 3<br />Population x 1,5<br />1950 – 2000 :<br />Energy x 5<br />Population x 2<br />Les émissions de CO2 provenant de combustibles fossiles <br />ont été multipliées par plus de 4 depuis 1950 (source AIE 2004)<br />
  • 4. There’s much more Energy than Oil<br />Reserves : 400+ Gtep<br />Consumption : 11 GTtep<br />If 2% growth <br />=&gt; less than 100 years<br />
  • 5. Renewables : Not anfull-optionfor Europe<br />Green energypreservesitsmarketshare in a flat economy but NO increase ! <br />Green energy = <br />½ of growth in energyneeds<br />1/3 of growth in Elecneeds<br />Over 1990 - 2007<br />141 Mtoe/year<br />7,8 % of primaryenergy<br />consumption<br />AVG +6 Mtoe / yr 2004-2007<br />+10 Mtoe 2006 &amp; 2007<br />10 Mtoe/year<br />0.6 % of primaryenergy<br />Consumption<br />Source : Observatoire de l’Énergie, ADEME, CEREN<br />1807 Mtep/year for Gross Consumption<br />
  • 6. NegaWatt Plan :<br />The Energy Challenge <br />POLITICS<br />PRIORITY<br />Less<br />Better<br />(with the remaining) <br />Clean<br />(1/2 of actual<br />consumption)<br />Source: http://www.negawatt.org/<br />
  • 7. FromEnergy to GreenhouseGases Emissions : <br />1st Barrier<br />7<br />
  • 8. Flux Naturels<br />Atmosphère<br />Biosphère<br />Océans<br />Lithosphère<br />Stocks et flux de carbone<br />Flux anthropiques<br />14 Gteq Carbone ou 51 Gteq CO2 par an <br />8<br />En milliards de tonnes de carbone par an<br />61,5<br />60<br />92<br />90<br />0,8<br />0,04<br />10+ Gteq Carbone non recyclés annuellement<br />Émissions totales : 150 GtC<br />Séquestration : 153.5 GtC<br />
  • 9. 350 ppm pour 80% de certitude &lt; 2°C <br />9<br />Source : Hansen &amp; al. 2009<br />Ce que demande la science <br />CO2 fossile : -85% till 2030<br />
  • 10. Country carbonfootprint<br />Easy to compute<br />but <br />partial referentials<br />10<br />
  • 11. UNFCCC Carbonfootprint : GHG Inventory<br />Belgium2007 : 132 millions teqCO2<br />Electricity<br />Waste<br />Transports<br />Industry<br />Buildings<br />Agriculture<br />1 %<br />18 %<br />30 %<br />22 %<br />8 %<br />21 %<br />- 9%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 15%<br />Depuis 1990<br />+ 20%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 24%<br />Depuis 1990<br />+ 13%<br />Depuis 1990<br />- 12%<br />Depuis 1990<br />Carbon production in Belgium (approx) <br />Source :climat.be<br />Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet<br />
  • 12. How Much GHG in Belgium’s GDPEn Belgique en 2008 : 132,6 millions teqCO2<br />Source : climaterchange.be<br />Illustration : Pascal Vilcollet<br />X 5,7 <br />161,1 millions teqCO2<br />752,3 millions teqCO2<br />Énergie<br />Déchets<br />Transports<br />Industrie<br />Bâtiments<br />Agriculture<br />1 %<br />18 %<br />32 %<br />22 %<br />7 %<br />20 %<br />26,1 MtCO2eq<br />1,3 MtCO2eq<br />24,1 MtCO2eq<br />41,4 MtCO2eq<br />28,6 MtCO2eq<br />9,1 MtCO2eq<br />+21,5 %<br />+467 %<br />28,5 MtCO2eq<br />591,2 MtCO2eq<br />Source : Agence pour le commerce extérieur<br />Source : SPF économie, brochure Transport 2009/10<br />Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges <br />
  • 13. EVOLUTION 1995 – 2010-11% ou +49 % ? <br />+49%<br />-11%<br />GHG increasequickerthan GDP !!!<br />Import/GDP<br />94%<br />46%<br />337<br />254<br />GDP Md€<br />750<br />500<br />MTeqCO2<br />+33%<br />Non Comptabilisés : transport routier international de marchandises – Variations dues aux carburant dépensés à l’étranger par les véhicules légers belges <br />
  • 14. Partial referential<br />Strangepolitics<br />NO good decisions<br />Marginal operationalefficiency gains with no account of production &amp; consumptionbehaviors<br />14<br />
  • 15. 15<br />Centralized Intermittent Energy ; <br />WindMills production concentrated (few countries) <br />Environmental ROI : 6 years<br />Investor’s ROI : 0,5 year<br />Green certificate bonus = 850 €/ tCO2 (avoided)<br />CO2 marketprice : 13 €/tCO2<br />
  • 16. 8 to 10 years for construction GHG payback in Belgium<br />16<br />Financial ROI : 20%<br />GHG ROI : 10% max <br />But the system allows to decentraliseenergy production and to tend towardsenergysufficency for buildings <br />
  • 17. Making money withenergysavings ? <br />Bank savingsaccount : 2% return<br />Solar PV panels : 20% return  do it for money<br /><ul><li>Energysavings return
  • 18. Versus 560 eur / year</li></ul>Of green certificates for <br />
  • 19. 18<br />Housingconstruction growth = 3 x population growth<br />Yearly new constructions &lt; 1% of total existing constructions<br />Natural materials DO REALLY HELP to reduce the environmental impacts of the construction phase<br />Building = designed by an architect, <br />sometimeforgotten fluxes <br />Buildings CO2 = CO2 Building phase + Lifetime CO2Energy usages + Lifetime CO2Induced transport + CO2Demolition<br />Buildings CO2 = CO2/kWh x kWh/m2 x m2/resident xResidents/householdx Nb households+ Mobility of inhabitants<br />
  • 20. Bilan de travaux de construction et de réhabilitation<br />New buildings are 6 x more carbon intensive thanretrofit<br />45 years of earnings as pay-back of construction<br />Equiv. To building Lifetime<br />NO real gains <br />ImproveSavings (Commuting, energy,…)<br />Reduce Construction impacts <br />Earnings/year<br /> BEFORE <br /> AFTER<br />
  • 21. 20<br />Transport GHG rose by 30% from 1990 <br />Efficiency per km has been divided by 2 since 1990 <br />+ Citizens<br />having<br />+ cars<br />Doingeach<br />+ km <br />CO2 = CO2/km xkm/car x Nb cars/householdx Nb households<br />
  • 22. 21<br />Replacement effect: The better the performance, the longer youkeep the car <br />
  • 23. Grey GHG: 3.500 kg CO2e<br />Lifetimeenergy GHG : 1400 kg CO2e<br />NO global Efficiency<br />
  • 24. Lighting<br />All values in kg CO2e for 50.000 h in Belgium<br />ConventionalHalogen<br />Production : 88<br />Use : 521 <br />TOTAL : 600<br />LED (Belgium) <br />Production : 6,2<br />Use : 91<br />TOTAL : 97,2<br />LED (China) <br />Production : 30,5<br />Use : 195<br />TOTAL : 225,5<br />
  • 25. Towards green Businesses<br />24<br />
  • 26. Relative vs. Absolute Decoupling<br />Business<br />Environmental impacts<br />Zero impact Growth<br />Relative Decoupling<br />Action plan<br />AbsoluteDecoupling<br />Time<br />Footprint t0<br />
  • 27. Green businesses ? <br />26<br />Low Tech, LowCost<br /><ul><li> Local production for local markets
  • 28. Inspiration fromDev. Countries
  • 29. R – activities</li></ul>Refuse, Reduce, reuse,, repair, repurpose, recycle, recover, respect, rethink, …, <br /><ul><li>Closedloopeconomy(shortage value)
  • 30. PSS &amp; Idlingcapacity
  • 31. Shorter value chains , vertical integration…</li></ul>Green =<br /><ul><li> New services, products
  • 32. Alternative marketing
  • 33. Alternative business models, pricing
  • 34. New values, like TRUST</li></ul>High Tech, Capital intensive <br /><ul><li>Renewableenergy production
  • 35. Electric Transport
  • 36. Alternative fuels
  • 37. Dessalinisation
  • 38. Green-IT (ECO-TIC)
  • 39. Green Buildings
  • 40. CarbonCredits, markets
  • 41. Housingretrofit = jobs provider</li></ul>Financial bubbles<br /><ul><li>Rawmaterials
  • 42. Crops
  • 43. fresh water
  • 44. Ground</li></ul>Green Economy 2.0 <br />Small scale, slow, network, collaborative lifestyles,<br />Green = differentand cheaper<br /> Min 90% of Marketshare<br />Green Economy 1.0<br />Large classical corporations,<br />Green = better and more expensive<br /> max 10% of Marketshare<br />
  • 45. Initiating changes, evaluating risks <br />27<br />Product <br />id<br />≠<br />New complementaryproductlines, close loops<br />« Marginal gains » : optimisation, efficiency<br />id<br />Job / Mission<br />New markets, service economy<br />New vision, mission &amp; business models<br />≠<br />
  • 46. 28<br />
  • 47. Money Money Money <br />Do not expect help fromothers…. <br />…Do it for yourself<br />29<br />
  • 48. 30<br />Source : climatechange.be ; statbel ; eex<br />CO2 marketPrices<br />CO2 EARNINGS<br /><ul><li>GDP Belgium 2008: 344 676 Million €
  • 49. GHG Belgique 2008 : 132,6 Million Tonnes CO2éq.
  • 50. Added Value / tCO2e: 2600 Euros
  • 51. Ratio withmarketprice x 173</li></ul>15 €/t CO2<br />Source : Stern Review reviewed (2009) ; <br />Mc Kinsey 2009 <br />How much to « save the planet » ? <br />Whatdoeseconomists tell us <br /><ul><li>Stabilise GHG concentrations 2 to 3 % World GDP / year
  • 52. Costs of inaction : 20% World GDP at least
  • 53. Costs if 10 more yearsbefore actions x 5 for costs of action &amp; inaction</li></ul>75 €/t CO2<br />NOW ! <br />READY to allow 3% of your Gross margin to climate plans ? <br />
  • 54. BeforeLeavingyou…<br /><ul><li> Environmental Risks accross the full Value Chain
  • 55. What if ?
  • 56. Indirect &gt;&gt; direct
  • 57. Dependency vs impacts
  • 58. Less , Better, Differently, someting else
  • 59. From product to service
  • 60. Increase lifetime &amp; guarantee, making things last longer, PSS
  • 61. Promote vertical integration (margin management) &amp; B2C
  • 62. Initiate, Develop and conslidatepostivie activities : More fun, more earnings, less environmental impacts.
  • 63. New economic models for new activities : Green grey , lifecyclecosts, etc. </li></ul>Important changes are made by people like you and me <br />A R E Y O U I N ? <br />31<br />
  • 64. Thank You !<br />20, Rue du Château <br />6536 Thuin - BELGIUM<br />Frederic.Chome@gmail.com<br />Frédéric Chomé<br />+32 (0) 474 701 832<br />www.theccgroup.eu<br />Skype : fredchome<br />Blog Demande à FredO :<br /> http://www.terra-economica.info/Demande-a-FredO,608.html<br />32<br />

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