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Consumer futures-2020 Scenario's for tomorrow consumers Toolkit part-3-scenario-pack-3-me-you
 

Consumer futures-2020 Scenario's for tomorrow consumers Toolkit part-3-scenario-pack-3-me-you

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Consumer futures-2020 Scenario's for tomorrow consumers Toolkit part-3-scenario-pack-3-me-you Consumer futures-2020 Scenario's for tomorrow consumers Toolkit part-3-scenario-pack-3-me-you Presentation Transcript

  • ‘from me Prosperous ‘my ‘sell it way’ to me’to you’ do it yourself do it for me ‘from me ‘I’m in your to you’ hands’ LESS Prosperous for sale es f in d o r f f a r m s h a r ore y mo f farm arr r at to: h m: findo th is is to c e r ti f y th 0 fro re’s 10 y, he ha r r y m o o r e o w ns har r s ha r e s ear rly bird ew d a n an e ce that avail - noti duce is along pro . come able pick up a and ken! chic peer-to-peer bankers first-time buyers
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ summary ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear 5. we buy stuff from… direct and local sources,about climate change and severe weather has increased… cooperatives and peer-to-peer services for swapping andcommunities are turning to alternative economic models selling goods... we like to grow our own produce in urban farms and make or repair more stuff ourselves2. government is… losing the confidence of thepublic and increasingly neglecting the wider public realm… 6. our relationship with brands is… lessquality of life and the ‘wellbeing’ agenda, however, are loyal and more volatile… less important than word-of-mouthdominant concerns recommendations, product quality and longevity3. our society is… feeling the pinch of resource 7. we use the internet and technology…constraints, high personal debt and low pensions but as the heart of our social and economic life and individualbuilding stronger local community ties and home-grown identity... to trade or buy collectively and to increase oursolutions where governments fail to take the lead cooperative buying power4. business and brands are… suffering from a 8. we think that sustainability is… somethingcontraction in the retail sector… having to work hard to win local communities need to tackle… going to involve cuttingtrust as consumers feel that business is failing to deliver net consumption rather than simply consuming moreon the challenges faced by society sustainable products (return to contents page) page 43
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ indicators ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ inequality debt trust oil barrel UK index of inequality Average UK adult debt % of people who say that most people food imports Price of oil per (Gini coefficient; high is less equal) including mortgage in their neighbourhood can be trusted % of food consumed in UK that is imported$155 50% £50k 70% 65% $150 60%$124 40% £40k 56% 62% 52% 38% 50% $93 30% 34% 42% 39% £30k 30k 32k $90$62 20% 28% 26% £20k 27% $31 10% £10k 14% 13% $0 0% £0k 0% 0% 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 attitudes to supermarket power nanotech household spend environment % of UK grocery market taken by top 4 online spend Number of nanotech- % of household expenditure that goes on % of people who say that environment / supermarkets % spent online based consumer products food and (non-alcoholic) drink pollution should be a government priority90% 30% 9000 30% 70% 30%72% 76% 24% 7200 24% 56% 24%54% 18% 5400 18% 42% 55% 40%36% 12% 3600 12% 15% 28% 35% 10%18% 6% 1800 6% 14% 1300 15000% 0% 0 0% 0% 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020 (return to contents page) page 44
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ the journey to this world ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ Digital real-time community Centralised electricity generation league tables showing struggles to meet demand, as nuclear water and carbon use power stations begin to go offline with and waste production are insufficient new capacity in place to make up shown on old marketing the deficit. Against a backdrop of sporadic billboards. power blackouts, communities start to take Across Europe, state energy generation and efficiency into their An Italian municipality turns The year of no bananas. health funds are own hands. all its car parks into The banana crop in thediverted from central allotments, to cope with Caribbean fails, priceshospitals to community Local and regional water budgets are the spiralling demand for rise and supplies to clinics. introduced by many local governments. grow-your-own food. Europe fail. 2013 2015 2017 2019 2014 2016 2018 2020 Retailers start to ‘Transition towns’ – A major supermarket There are 50% more see year-on-year communities working to closes its last out of town farmers in western reductions in sales. reduce dependency on mega-store. economies than there oil – have spread across were in 2011, including The 5th UK carbon many western economies, many micro-farmers budget is agreed, and there are three times and urban-farmers. with regionally based as many in the UK as there carbon targets were in 2011. adopted – overseen by local government. (return to contents page) page 45
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ products and services ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’1. peer-to-peer mortgages 4. local/regional goods exchangeBuilding on the success of our peer-to-peer banking services, our new At Goods Exchange we provide affordable space for you to storemortgage service provides a way for existing property owners to help items for resale or exchange either online or offline. We provide a livethose who aren’t yet on the ladder. We provide all the necessary legal inventory of current stock, so customers can see immediately if theredocuments, and a hosting facility for the payments, so this mortgage is anything they want. We also arrange shipping and collection.service can be set up in your community. You can even set conditions onthe mortgage to ensure specified community benefits, such as planning 5. sell your surplus foodrestrictions and the implementation of energy efficiency measures. The ‘UGrow’ service allows you to sell your home-grown and community- grown produce to wider markets through regional and national food2. the community farm distributors and logistics companies. Our comprehensive portalBuy shares in your local farm and you will be the first to know when new provides start-up kits for growing fruit and vegetables in whateverproduce is available. Want to know more about your food? You can come space you can spare – your garden, your converted roof garden,along to an open day, see how the farm works and be involved in running even your window box. It also provides a community matching service,it. If you want to visit and pick up a chicken on processing day, you linking supply and demand across and between communities to maximisecan learn how animals are slaughtered, and even do the slaughtering localisation and minimise travel, and logging all registered transportyourself. as it goes to and fro.3. hyper-local products 6. hempA new online fine-filtering system allows you to set geographical limits Why not grow hemp in your garden? This amazingly resilient planton your purchasing regardless of the retailer you are using. This requires little maintenance and has minimal environmental impact. TheGoogle Maps application also lets you track local food for sale. harvested crop is in high demand and has multiple uses – food, plastics, clothing, strengthening building materials, fuel and cosmetics. (return to contents page) page 46
  • The community farm 2 1Peer-to-peer mortgages ‘from me to you’ products and services 3 6 Hemp Hyper-local products 4 5 Local/regional goods exchange Sell your surplus food (return to contents page) page 47
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’what is the state of the economy? new-found intimacy can be sidelined, but in general people feel a greaterEconomic growth has been slower than expected. The explosion in sense of belonging. Allegiance to the state, by contrast, has declined. Menglobal trade is at an end. Developed economies are becoming more self- and women share their roles more than ever before, with men typicallysufficient, although trade in services and information exchange continue having much greater involvement in day-to-day purchasing decisions thanapace. People have to go on working longer, as pensions no longer provide was once the case.adequate support in later life. Many communities are turning to alternativeeconomic models to cope with the slow economy. Barter and other peer- what is the state of the nation’s health?to-peer exchange schemes are on the rise. The retail sector has contracted, Most people’s diets have become less varied because of a reduction inand margins are tight. the availability of food out of season. The least affluent sectors of society occasionally suffer from deficiencies of vital nutrients. Instances ofwhat is the role of government? malnutrition – although extremely rare – are increasing. Obesity persists inGovernments have been slow to adapt to the challenging new economic some groups, but lifestyle-related illnesses in general are on the decrease.and environmental conditions and have lost public confidence. Home-grown Social changes mean that people lead more active lives, especiallyanswers are often perceived as better than centralised solutions. In the UK, because they walk and cycle more. National health services have largelyfor example, the Department for the Community has wide-ranging powers, retained public trust, but their reach is restricted by lack of funds. As aand is responsible for promoting decentralised, human-scale initiatives to result, communities develop their own solutions, but look for support fromdeliver local services. Across developed economies, quality of life is a key governments and business. In the face of social and environmental change,focus, and the wellbeing agenda dominates the public and policy discourse. depression is increasingly prevalent, especially among those not involved inIn healthcare, for example, governments spend more on promoting healthy community initiatives.lifestyles than on building new hospitals.how has society changed?More people are living in larger domestic units again – for example,grandparents, parents and children in the same household. Many ruralcommunities are beginning to flourish, and the sense of local communityhas also grown stronger in urban areas. Those who opt out of this (return to contents page) page 48
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’what is the state of international relations? how has transport infrastructure changed?Resource conflicts over water, food and minerals, combined with climate Many roads are suffering from lack of investment. Governments havedisasters, have driven large numbers of people across national borders as moved away from the ‘predict and provide’ model. Despite high oil prices,environmental refugees. Small wars proliferate, the threat of larger ones congestion is getting worse, but gradually people are turning to publiclooms, and periodically this affects what products are available in the shops. and shared transport. Freight is increasingly moving back to the railwaysDeveloped economies are unavoidably drawn into some of these conflicts and canals to reduce environmental impacts, cut fuel costs and avoidand send small numbers of troops, despite frequent public opposition. congestion.Nations have become more insular just when the world requires strongglobal governance to tackle challenges such as climate change and water what has happened to supply chains?shortages. Supply chains have had to become more diverse to minimise the risk of disruption from climate change, terrorism, or sporadic failures in localwhat is the role of business in society? supplies. Many retailers have bought up their suppliers, seeing verticalConsumers feel that business is failing to deliver on the challenges faced integration as a way to defend crucial supplies. There is less ‘just in time’by society, and companies have to work hard to win trust. Being ‘local’ is a delivery, and some raw materials are scarce due to resource constraints.source of competitive advantage, so some companies are turning to social It is rare now for the movement of goods to involve just a few massiveentrepreneur or franchise models. regional distribution centres; instead, many retailers are developing smaller and more efficient transport systems in response to the demand for localhow has energy infrastructure changed? distribution. Lack of investment in the road infrastructure is driving long-Faced with periodic power outages, and political reluctance to invest heavily distance freight back to the railways, coastal waters and, in some cases,in centralised energy generation, many communities have taken matters rivers and canals.into their own hands. Small-scale generation has boomed, encouraged bygenerous feed-in tariffs. This and the widespread adoption of low-cost energyefficiency measures have allowed many people to reduce or almost eliminatetheir reliance on grid power. Political instability combined with growingcompetition have pushed oil prices to very high levels. This makes personaltransport more expensive and adds significantly to the price of groceries. (return to contents page) page 49
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ what kind of world are we living in? ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’how is the retail sector regulated? what are the big global issues of the day?This is not an era of big government. At the national level, regulation is Climate change, resource scarcity, environmental breakdown and thestill fairly light, but retailers are subject to the diverse demands of local resultant conflicts dominate debate. Political arguments in developedand regional governments. Strict regulation in some areas restricts new economies focus on how to balance a responsible global role, supportingbuild and puts limits on market share, while elsewhere the activity of retail the UN in conflict resolution and helping the poorest people in developingbusinesses goes relatively unhindered. countries with the protection of their own economic interests and quality of life. Governments are reluctant to commit resources, but citizens play an increasingly active role in global civil society, primarily online. The relationship between material consumption, wellbeing and social cohesion is also increasingly a subject of political debate, particularly since the cost of living has gone up. (return to contents page) page 50
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ shopping experience ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’what are we asking for? while guerrilla traders often occupy empty retail space for a short timeMost people acknowledge a tension between their ethical considerations before moving – or being moved – on. More consumers are becomingand the search for value for money. Consumer profiles are more diverse traders in their own right, making a living through selling goods and servicesthan in 2011, and loyalty to brands is low. The popularity of processed online. Alongside the growth in community enterprises, new organisationsfoods has declined, with more people cooking from scratch. Resource have evolved that match supply and demand across and betweenconstraints mean that there is less choice on offer, and people get less communities. The internet has made possible the growth of cottageof what they need from shops. More people are asking for ingredients industries with global reach. More and more producers sell directly toand components rather than the finished article, so they can make things consumers, who act independently or in communities to get the best price.themselves, wanting to be more independent and have more power over Retailers sometimes find that their customers are also their competitors.their lives. Many have actually begun to reduce their overall levels ofmaterial consumption, and a number of high-profile individuals have taken where do products come from?this to the extreme of giving up shopping altogether. The proportion of groceries coming from abroad has fallen. Developed economies have had to become more self-sufficient, and now grow farwhere do we shop? which new companies do we buy more of their own food. Urban farming is blossoming, and more and morefrom? land is being converted to allotments. More products are reused via peer-to-Consumers seek to obtain their goods as locally and directly as possible. peer trading or through online community loan systems. Prices overall arePeer-to-peer services for swapping and selling goods continue to rise in much higher due to high oil costs and volatility in supplies, driven largely bypopularity. Retailers have adapted to changing attitudes by developing increasing demand for commodities in India and China.new logistics services and building shops that are customised to suit localcharacteristics and needs. There is a growing polarity amongst consumers Western agriculture is entering a new era. It has become smarter, greener,as some continue to look for value at large supermarkets, while others try to more distributed and less dominated by monoculture. Mixed farms andbypass – and even undermine – the traditional supply chains. smallholders participate in community and peer-to-peer trade, and make use of more efficient distribution systems, enabling them to compete withAs the retail sector contracts, competition is hot and margins are tight. the bigger players more effectively than ever before.There is less bustle in the high street, and more shop units stand empty.Repair shops and second-hand shops are an increasingly common sight, (return to contents page) page 51
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ shopping experience ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’how do we use the internet? what media do we use?The internet is at the heart of social and economic life, and of people’s Local and regional media have enjoyed a resurgence, driven by thesense of individual identity too. Online portals facilitate the exchange of technology for supplying geographically targeted personalised news.goods directly between consumers. Networks help communities to leverage Companies have difficulty managing their profiles in an increasingly diversegreater buying power and trade their local produce with others. People use and devolved media sector. Centralised broadcast media have become lessthe internet to participate in civil society, connecting and collaborating with and less important while word-of-mouth communication has come to theothers around the world. fore, both within local communities and online.how do we use other technology? how do we engage with retailers and brands?Technological development is driven more by necessity than pure research. Retailers are finding it ever harder to talk to the consumer through theMany products and services come to market from collaborative open- traditional channels. Advertising in media such as TV and the press is seensource projects that are attempting to address social and environmental as a less effective method of communication (though interactive billboardschallenges. People are more familiar with technology than ever before, more work well), and mass marketing is rarely used. Advertising often has a local/willing to work with it, and more apt to customise technology for their own regional focus, while companies have been working hard to promote word-needs rather than buying new devices. Citizen engineers are an increasingly of-mouth recommendations through social networks, online and offline.common phenomenon. People are very reluctant to throw anything away, Keeping on top of developments in social media means that companiesand would much rather reuse, repair, freecycle or adapt technologies for a must be absolutely transparent about their identity and aims. People aredifferent use. also willing to listen to messages implicit in the type and quality of products. Longevity counts, and products designed for long life and adaptability are well received. There are fewer successful big brands, as many people prefer to cut corners – using raw vinegar for cleaning, for instance, rather than buying a branded product with an acetic acid base. (return to contents page) page 52
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ shopping experience ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’how do we view sustainability? how do we view climate change?In the absence of government intervention, communities are taking Communities are regularly disrupted by severe weather, and there issustainable development into their own hands. A case in point is the public concern about the impact of climate change at home, as well asgrowing ‘reuse and repair’ culture, prompted by pressure from resource abroad where it is clearly causing extreme suffering. There has been noconstraints. The UK’s ‘Transition Town’ movement, born in the mid-2000s, comprehensive global deal on greenhouse gas emissions, so policy signalshas spread and strengthened, and is now a significant global social are highly variable across the world, but for three reasons emissions aremovement with a hard political edge. With this has come a belief that not as high as they might have been. Firstly, economies are sluggish andsustainable development requires net cuts in consumption, rather than where there is economic growth it is often low-carbon. Secondly, relativelysimply consuming more sustainable products. The worldwide nature of the high oil prices have promoted energy efficiency and the use of non-fossilmovement has also broadened many people’s view of what sustainability fuels. Thirdly, many people – though by no means all – are choosing to livemeans, encouraging them to see issues in their global perspective. One more sustainable lives, and the Transition Movement and its spin-offs areconsequence, for example, is less enthusiasm for reducing ‘food miles’ beginning to have a tangible impact on emissions.because of the negative impact this may have – socially, environmentallyand economically – on developing countries. (return to contents page) page 53
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ Suzie’s shampoo story ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ 2 3 11. Suzie sees a ‘recipe’ shared on a personal care 2. Suzie buys a year’s supply of ingredients in bulk, 3. Suzie can’t wait to try out her new shampoo, especiallysocial network for an open-source, home-made, low- which offers great value although due to resource since it has been recommended by so many of her peers.carbon shampoo. It’s been ‘reverse engineered’ from constraints she does have to wait a while for a few of Not only is she really happy with the results but thea popular supermarket brand. Because the UK is the ingredients to become available. When everything waterless powdered shampoo also helps her preserveincreasingly disrupted by severe weather conditions, is in stock and ready for collection, she borrows the precious water in the rainwater collection tank shewater shortages in the summer mean that dry powdered community car and drives to the large wholesaler. recently installed.shampoos designed to work without water are popular.Many community members have contributed to perfect andfine tune this shampoo ‘recipe’, and Suzie is keen to try it. (return to contents page) page 54
  • ‘from me to you’ ‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’ Suzie’s shampoo story ‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’ redex 4 5 64. Suzie has done some consumer trading in the past, and 5. She posts them via the Redex canal boats. 6. the shampoo suzie kept for herself lasts a long timedecides to trade the extra shampoo on the peer-to-peer as only very little is needed for each wash. When Suzieexchange portal. The portal can recommend the best eventually finishes the product, she turns the bottle intoavailable trades. Suzie searches for food trades based a pretty plant pot and sells it at the local market theon dietary requirements and health needs. She exchanges next day. when she has saved up a surplus of grey water,one bottle of her shampoo for a bottle of home-made She sells that too.vegetable juice and another for a jar of low-sugarraspberry jam. To ensure a more balanced diet she eventrades some abroad in exchange for produce that isn’tseasonally available in the UK. (return to contents page) page 55