Parametric Estimation for Reliable Project Estimates
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Parametric Estimation for Reliable Project Estimates

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Presentation for the Russian Managers Association in Moscow on October 15, 2013.

Presentation for the Russian Managers Association in Moscow on October 15, 2013.

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  • 1. Frank Vogelezang Manager Pricing Office – Ordina MPC Member – COSMIC Parametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates
  • 2. Introduction 2 17 Frank Vogelezang 120 km new railway Extending the support for the method by by targeted guidelines and improved documentation Pricing Office - Setting commercial price for our service offerings - Challenging internal estimates with parametrics
  • 3. Agenda Parametric Estimation for reliable IT Project Estimates  Estimating Getting a grip on IT cost and schedule  Functional Size Translating requirements to manageable numbers  The power of parametrics Building on proven reference data for cost and schedule estimation from internal or external sources 3 17
  • 4. Estimating Getting a grip on IT cost and schedule
  • 5. Estimating IT projects 5 17 Two essential routes Parametrics Objective Size Effort The Expert Schedule & Cost
  • 6. Definition of an estimate Getting grip on IT cost and schedule An estimate is  an analytical and unbiased prediction  of how long it takes  and what it will cost The bias comes from the interplay with targets, commitments and plans 6 17
  • 7. Viable estimation = Reliable estimates Getting grip on IT cost and schedule Analytical  Can you verify in some way what your experts tell you? Unbiased  Will an expert give the same answer twice? Prediction  100% certainty costs too much time and resources! 7 17
  • 8. 2.7M Functional Size Translating requirements to manageable numbers
  • 9. Functional Size : Function Point Analysis 9 Translating requirements to manageable numbers  FPA stands for Function Point Analysis  What the software should be able to do (functionality) expressed in a number based on an objectively described method Function Point Analysis  Something intangible like functionality becomes a physical number that can be used for calculations  Five ISO/IEC standards: COSMIC, FiSMA, IFPUG, Mk II & NESMA 17
  • 10. COSMIC Function Point Analysis : ISO/IEC 19761 Translating requirements to manageable numbers Entry (E) Exit (X) Write (W) Read (R) 10 17
  • 11. The power of parametrics Building on proven reference data
  • 12. Parametric reality check 12 17 Effort / Cost Building on proven reference data Paul Masson’s Law Minimal time Parkinson’s Law Realistic Productivity Optimal effort Brooks’ Law Schedule
  • 13. How much certainty do you need 13 17 Probability Building on proven reference data 75% for fixed price projects 90% for safety critical systems Schedule / Cost 50/50 median result, for a balanced portfolio First likely option, overly optimistic
  • 14. Keep track of the actual project 14 17 Where will it end? Time Variance Budget Variance Schedule Variance Cost Variance Actual cost Earned value
  • 15. Forecast of the outcome with parametrics 15 17 Building on proven reference data for cost and schedule estimation Cost Overrun Schedule Slippage Actual cost Earned value Total cost (forecast) Total value (planned)
  • 16. The power of parametrics 16 17 Viable estimates and cost-effective projects  Estimate & Plan  Create a baseline parametric estimate Estimate & Plan  Develop a Project Plan  Monitor and Control  Document actuals  Create forecast based on parametrics Monitor & Control Experience & Knowledge  Re-estimate and establish new baseline  Measure and Analyse  Establish variances for the whole project Measure & Analyse  Determine parametric parameters  Incorporate this knowledge in future estimates and plans Baseline(s) vs Final Actuals
  • 17. www.cosmicon.com ThePriceofIT.blogspot.com @FrankVogelezang FrankVogelezang frank.vogelezang@ordina.nl www.linkedin.com/in/frankvogelezang 17