By: Frank X. Sowa                                                                               Chairman/CEO              ...
Development of the U.S.              1600’s -- 1932• Pre-Independence -- Rugged  Individualism to support survival• 1776-1...
Development in the U.S.                1933 -- 1999• 1933-1958 -- Industrial Age -- Transportation  towns -- Suburbia -- C...
Development in the U.S. In the first part of the 21st Century• 2000-2007 -- Multinational Age -- International  towns -- b...
Worn-out methods• Abdicating power to a “Planning Commission” or  an “authority” (local, state, or federal) with old  code...
Making the Transition• OLD WAY -- Control Development with laws  and planning -- maintain the code• MODERN WAY -- Collabor...
The Transition• Doomed to Failure if …–   1.Focus is on laws, codes, old planning–   2. Focus is on survival or benchmarki...
Successful Transitions• Will succeed if …    – 1. Control and develop the “chess board” -- not      control the “players” ...
Making the Transition• Refocus from 90% to 18%:     – Rugged individualism (lack of development plan)     – Uncontrolled l...
Making the Transition• Place your focus to 70-90% on:    – Developing broadband      communication/collaboration capabilit...
Focus of Today’s Talk:          Developing for the 21st                 Century          Enhancing Communities to take    ...
Areas of a Knowledge Economy                Energy and PowerAgriculture                                                   ...
Which paradigm are you at today?•     Agricultural -- Hands-based Technology (to 1958)•     Industrial -- Machine-based Te...
The 90’s and BeyondThe “lenses” of Niclolas Negroponte -- MIT Labs 1975 -- said a “combined lens” called New Media wouldbe...
The Future of Unified IT                        --THE XAVIER GROUP in 1986BandwithMemoryLanguagesNanoswitchesRealDigitalhp...
The Effects of the           Multinational Age (2001-2008)• The Internet in a multinational society• The internet as a col...
2005 and Beyond                                                            The          The Lenses of THE XAVIER GROUP 200...
By 2020                                               The LensMan and                                               Become...
The Next Paradigm             The melding of the           Information Superhighway           Networks with Groupware,    ...
The Effects of the Knowledge               Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase  One  – 1998-2005 CRM and ERP (tech...
The Effects of the Knowledge               Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase  Two  – Integration of circuitry --...
The Effects of the Knowledge                Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Three  – GRID computing, parallel ...
The Effects of the Knowledge                Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Final Phase   – Mind a part of the compu...
Area’s Knowledge Strengths•   Educational and Research Capabilities•   Connectivity and Linkages•   People and Capabilitie...
Area’s Knowledge Weaknesses• Brick and Mortar and Old Economy Focus  with Public Project Development• Parochialism and Con...
By 2008• More consolidation of farming,  manufacturing, construction, high-technology,  banking and financials, healthcare...
What this means to jobs• Major job losses in traditional manufacturing,  financial services, customer services, high-  tec...
Losing these jobs means            more fallout in …• Any major occupation that caters to upper middle  class consumers --...
500M-800B1.1M-500M 500K-1.1M   1980 Wealth Demographics in PA 250K-500K190K-250K               <500K = 6%                 ...
500M-800B1.1M-500M 500K-1.1M   2000 Wealth Demographics in PA 250K-500K190K-250K               <500K = 4%                 ...
300M-1T700K-300M 250K-700K   2010 Wealth Demographics in PA 200K-250K190K-250K               <700K = 2%                   ...
From the Past to the Future      “What we see today is young        people who, lacking an        understanding of the pas...
FUTURE CURRICULUM• Biomelding requires merging of Liberal Arts,  Science and Technology Literacy• Teaching within a Future...
Education of the Future• The coming of the unlimited global learner  instead of a “product” of the educational  institutio...
Learning and Work• Scholar’s Learning Mode• Continuous learning• Competency-based versus seat time• Expert systems, many o...
Work and Learning• Work and learning will increasingly be  integrated and continuous.• Knowledge and skills will rapidly c...
Workforce• The workforce will continue to provide  both rich opportunities and severe  dislocations.– Mismatch between kno...
New Concepts of Working• New ways to work will become increasingly  widespread.– Telecommuting and video conferencing will...
Lifestyles & Demographics• Aging of the Population– Those over 65 will comprise 21.5% of the  population by 2030.– Retirem...
Change of the Leadership             Structure• Bottom-up systems and networks of webs  become more dynamic, effective, an...
Entrepreneurs and Strategies• Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial strategies  and activities will be increasingly important ...
Developing Communities for          the 21st Century                                               It is not Rocket Scienc...
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21st Century Communities

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Project originally done in 2004 for a National Planners Group, represented at the World Future Society General Assembly, and again in 2012 for a confidential federal contractor company.

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21st Century Communities

  1. 1. By: Frank X. Sowa Chairman/CEO THE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd. Developing Communities for the 21st CenturyPresented to the Professional Forum of The World Future Society, Washington DC -- July 2006Originally-presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference,February 27, 2004 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 1
  2. 2. Development of the U.S. 1600’s -- 1932• Pre-Independence -- Rugged Individualism to support survival• 1776-1876 -- Westering -- Speculation -- uncontrolled laissez faire -- farm and plantation-estate focused• 1877-1932 -- Mechanical Age -- Railroad towns -- Mill and Company focused2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. Development in the U.S. 1933 -- 1999• 1933-1958 -- Industrial Age -- Transportation towns -- Suburbia -- City Center/Town Square -- multinational corporation focused• 1959-1979 -- Urban Age -- Airport towns -- Urban project sprawl -- strip and retail malls -- brick and mortar on greenspace -- service economy focused• 1980-2000 -- Information Age -- Silicon towns -- High technology/computers/internet -- education , quality-of-life focused 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. Development in the U.S. In the first part of the 21st Century• 2000-2007 -- Multinational Age -- International towns -- broadband communication/collaboration linkages -- electronic multinational infrastructure economy focused• 2008-2023 -- Knowledge Age -- knowledge-core focused towns (education, science and research- oriented) -- complexity matrix linkages -- biological and cellular-electronic collaboration economy 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. Worn-out methods• Abdicating power to a “Planning Commission” or an “authority” (local, state, or federal) with old codes and laws to enforce bureaucratically• Public-Private development and alliances -- big league sports alliances• Brick and mortar development -- reclaiming brownfields, developing greenfields• High-Tech Service Centers• Enhancing quality of life -- education• Job creation quick-fix schemes 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. Making the Transition• OLD WAY -- Control Development with laws and planning -- maintain the code• MODERN WAY -- Collaborate on Development -- Public-Private Alliances• 21st CENTURY WAY -- Internationalize Alliances -- Tax with Incentives• KNOWLEDGE AGE WAY -- Collaborate free of time-space restraints -- use knowledge and focus on keeping knowledge workers for competitive advantage2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. The Transition• Doomed to Failure if …– 1.Focus is on laws, codes, old planning– 2. Focus is on survival or benchmarking– 3. Focus is on urban development projects– 4. Focus is on brick and mortar– 5. Focus is on brownfields and/or green space– 6. Focus is on today’s technology 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. Successful Transitions• Will succeed if … – 1. Control and develop the “chess board” -- not control the “players” or try to go on a “buffalo hunt” and choose the winning “economic pieces.” – 2. “Chess board” consists of proper infrastructure, providing captivating and meaningful taxation, flexible laws, excellent “knowledge-core” in place or being put in place, and keeping knowledge pieces.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. Making the Transition• Refocus from 90% to 18%: – Rugged individualism (lack of development plan) – Uncontrolled laissez faire – City center/town square – Urban projects -- development parks – Brick and mortar on brownfields and/or greenspace –2/27/04 High-Tech Service Centers All rights reserved. © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, 9
  10. 10. Making the Transition• Place your focus to 70-90% on: – Developing broadband communication/collaboration capability – Internationalize - cosmopolitanize – Drive networking linkages – Develop knowledge-cores • Focus on education, science, healthcare, research, complexity management services2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 10 10
  11. 11. Focus of Today’s Talk: Developing for the 21st Century Enhancing Communities to take advantage of the Multinational and Knowledge Economies Changing to 21st Century Alliances -- Incentives Creating a knowledge core and using knowledge for competitive advantage © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All2/27/04 rights reserved. 11
  12. 12. Areas of a Knowledge Economy Energy and PowerAgriculture Construction Biotechnology Head Mouse Medical Transportation Space and RocketryManufacturing and Robotics Information and Communications 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 12 12
  13. 13. Which paradigm are you at today?• Agricultural -- Hands-based Technology (to 1958)• Industrial -- Machine-based Technology (to 1979)• Electronic -- Electrical-based Technology (to 1984)• Broadcast -- Transistors, Integrated Circuits, Satellites, Desktop Computers (to 1991)• Informational -- Data-Based Networks (to 1995)• Narrowcast -- World Wide Web, Downcasting, text, images, Internet-based Technologies (to 1998)• Collaborative -- Integrated-Communications via Internet and Net tools with full multimedia (through 2011)• Bio-Melding -- the Next Paradigm (through 2015) 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 13 13
  14. 14. The 90’s and BeyondThe “lenses” of Niclolas Negroponte -- MIT Labs 1975 -- said a “combined lens” called New Media wouldbe a reality by 2000 -- (Broadcast, Telecom. Computers -- Unified Communications ENHANCED Optimized Data COMMUNICATION-BASED MODEL Transfer High Bandwidth Distributed Data Narrowcasting Storage in Network Digital Signal Highest-Value Broadcast Asynchronous Information Commodity Priced Lowest-Cost Telecom Cost-Free Network Distribution Global Access Local ImpactIntegrated Networks ComputerParallel andDistributed Computing Unified New Media of the Information Age 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 14 14
  15. 15. The Future of Unified IT --THE XAVIER GROUP in 1986BandwithMemoryLanguagesNanoswitchesRealDigitalhpcNewOpenDocSatelliteMobileJavaEmbeddedNetworkEDI TimeOnline CommerceInteractiveMultimediaEncryptionWEBSites TelevisionInternet ProcessingATM CompilersSimulationsImaging SecurityVirtual Switches on ChipsVirtualOnlineParallelmultichipsOperatingLinksLanguagesRealityWorldsNetworksSystems 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 15 15
  16. 16. The Effects of the Multinational Age (2001-2008)• The Internet in a multinational society• The internet as a collaboration tool• Presentation skills and CRM -- building relationships• Coping with change and complexity• Coping with global competitors• Lifestyle changes to master a world economy• Tracking, Terrorists, Linkage, Privacy2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 16 16
  17. 17. 2005 and Beyond The The Lenses of THE XAVIER GROUP 2001 Knowledge EconomyMan and Unified UnifiedMachine Neuroscience, Wholistic Approaches Genome andBio-Meld BiotechnologyVirtualSystems Unified Unified Information Materials Science, Technology and (Nanotechnology) and Cellular Robotics Knowledge Ontologies MODEL DRIVEN BY THE LENSES MERGING TOGETHER 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 17 17
  18. 18. By 2020 The LensMan and Becomes UnifiedMachine Neuroscience, OverlappedBio-Meld is Genome and BiotechnologyMainstream Unified The Information Unified Materials Science Knowledge Technology and (Nanotechnology) and Economy Knowledge Cellular Robotics Ontologies 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 18 18
  19. 19. The Next Paradigm The melding of the Information Superhighway Networks with Groupware, Virtual Reality and Artificial Life.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 19 19
  20. 20. The Effects of the Knowledge Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase One – 1998-2005 CRM and ERP (technology began in 1968) – 1995-2010 Wireless, GPS, RFIDs (technology began in 1975) – 1973-2020 Virtual Reality, CAD-CAM, 3D Virtual Worlds and Objects, Cyberspace (technology began in 1968) – 1992-2007 ISO 9000, Standards and Product/Service Tracking – 1958-2050 Biometrics, Robotic enhancers, Smartbots, automation 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 20 20
  21. 21. The Effects of the Knowledge Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Two – Integration of circuitry -- now to molecular scale – System miniaturization -- systems on a chip – Silicon to plastics to bio-cells – Collaboration/Communications integrity maintained – Human Genome project, advances in biotechnology, advances in neuroscience and brain research – Advances in robotic systems, miniaturization and automation of robots, space systems 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 21 21
  22. 22. The Effects of the Knowledge Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Three – GRID computing, parallel processing, new knowledge ontologies, object programming, new supercomputers – New battery and energy technologies -- self-contained – Mind/Machine solutions for handicaps, terrorism, defense – Brain mechanisms understood – Microsizing to human cell level – Putting it all together 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 22 22
  23. 23. The Effects of the Knowledge Age• The melding of Mind with Machine Final Phase – Mind a part of the computer network – Human a part of cyberspace – Ethical, Religious, Military, Market value – The change and complexity issues – The New World (order or disorder) based on control, independence, interdependence, freedom, tolerance, acceptance of diversity 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 23 23
  24. 24. Area’s Knowledge Strengths• Educational and Research Capabilities• Connectivity and Linkages• People and Capabilities• Healthcare and Biotechnology• Information Technology and Telephony• Science and Mathematics Capabilities• Capital Formation and Foundations 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 24 24
  25. 25. Area’s Knowledge Weaknesses• Brick and Mortar and Old Economy Focus with Public Project Development• Parochialism and Conservative Statism• Underdeveloped, Underachieving Workforce• Bad Self-Image, Poor Direction• Fighting Mythical Dinosaurs• Brain-Drain , Aging Population 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 25 25
  26. 26. By 2008• More consolidation of farming, manufacturing, construction, high-technology, banking and financials, healthcare• 85% traditional manufacturing moved offshore (72% offshore now)• 68% high-technology jobs, customer service jobs, financial services, professional services, hardware/software offshore (38% offshore now)2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 26 26
  27. 27. What this means to jobs• Major job losses in traditional manufacturing, financial services, customer services, high- technology, major construction• Job losses heavy in management, financial management, engineering, technician areas, brokerages, programming, skilled labor• 1955-2002 these were by far the best paying and broadest opportunities in the upper middle class 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 27 27
  28. 28. Losing these jobs means more fallout in …• Any major occupation that caters to upper middle class consumers -- retail, wholesale, government, education, healthcare and so forth• The fallout of this sector will require four things: – 1. Capability to train in new skills – 2. Public Support for those sliding, less tax capability, less able to support healthcare, less capable to own real estate, less capable of paying off credit – 3. More public concerns, welfare, mental health, etc. – 4. Supply from offshore sources to pick up domestic slack 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 28 28
  29. 29. 500M-800B1.1M-500M 500K-1.1M 1980 Wealth Demographics in PA 250K-500K190K-250K <500K = 6% Wealthiest170K-190K Wealthy = 23% exceed $650150K-170K Middle Class = 48% billion in assets130K-150K Welfare Class = 23%110K-130K WEALTHY90K-110K75K-90K64K-75K45K-64K36K-45K28K-36K MIDDLE CLASS23K-28K18K-23K10K-18K 6K-10K WELFARE CLASS >6K 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 29 29
  30. 30. 500M-800B1.1M-500M 500K-1.1M 2000 Wealth Demographics in PA 250K-500K190K-250K <500K = 4% Wealthiest170K-190K Wealthy = 26% exceed $800150K-170K Middle Class = 55% billion in assets130K-150K Welfare Class = 15%110K-130K WEALTHY90K-110K75K-90K64K-75K45K-64K36K-45K28K-36K MIDDLE CLASS23K-28K18K-23K10K-18K 6K-10K WELFARE CLASS >6K 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 30 30
  31. 31. 300M-1T700K-300M 250K-700K 2010 Wealth Demographics in PA 200K-250K190K-250K <700K = 2% Wealthiest will170K-190K Wealthy = 15% exceed $1 trillion150K-170K Middle Class = 64% in assets130K-150K Welfare Class = 18%110K-130K WEALTHY90K-110K75K-90K64K-75K45K-64K MIDDLE CLASS36K-45K28K-36K23K-28K18K-23K10K-18K 6K-10K WELFARE CLASS >6K 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 31 31
  32. 32. From the Past to the Future “What we see today is young people who, lacking an understanding of the past and a vision of the future, live in an impoverished present.” -- Allan Bloom, Closing of the American Mind, 1987.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 32 32
  33. 33. FUTURE CURRICULUM• Biomelding requires merging of Liberal Arts, Science and Technology Literacy• Teaching within a Futures’ Context• Electronic Networking and Collaboration• Requires radically new knowledge skills• Requires a revamping of Curriculum and Rubrics2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 33 33
  34. 34. Education of the Future• The coming of the unlimited global learner instead of a “product” of the educational institution• Transfer of education from a focus on bell- curve achievement by the Masses to self- realization of the Individual• Home will become the new center of advanced learning• Communication electronically anywhere, anytime, anyplace will be at the knowledge core of this shift2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 34 34
  35. 35. Learning and Work• Scholar’s Learning Mode• Continuous learning• Competency-based versus seat time• Expert systems, many online, will evaluate resumes, credentials, and determine who will be selected for jobs of the future• Personal vs Institutional Responsibility 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 35 35
  36. 36. Work and Learning• Work and learning will increasingly be integrated and continuous.• Knowledge and skills will rapidly change in the knowledge economy.• Innovative and effective training and retraining strategies will be essential.• Successful enterprises will have a culture of learning, will focus on knowledge management and solutions, and knowledge workers.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 36 36
  37. 37. Workforce• The workforce will continue to provide both rich opportunities and severe dislocations.– Mismatch between knowledge skills needed and skills available.– Continuous learning on the job.– Increasing importance of knowledge workers makes this the essence of location2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 37 37
  38. 38. New Concepts of Working• New ways to work will become increasingly widespread.– Telecommuting and video conferencing will significantly replace face-to-face time and setback airline ambitions.– Work anywhere, any time, anyplace strategies will become commonplace.– Role of Workers will change the desire for business to chase traditional skills and markets.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 38 38
  39. 39. Lifestyles & Demographics• Aging of the Population– Those over 65 will comprise 21.5% of the population by 2030.– Retirement age will rise to 70 by 2025.– Many people will continue to work after “retirement.”– Potential for generational controversy and conflict will increase.2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 39 39
  40. 40. Change of the Leadership Structure• Bottom-up systems and networks of webs become more dynamic, effective, and powerful as top-down systems and hierarchies become less effective and powerful.– Bureaucracies are becoming dysfunctional, PLACES ARE NOT AS IMPORTANT.– Self-organizing teams are becoming the most effective way of getting things done. 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 40 40
  41. 41. Entrepreneurs and Strategies• Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial strategies and activities will be increasingly important to the economic health of a community or region.– Growth of small businesses and cottage industries– Increasing numbers of contractual workers– Entrepreneurial spirit and strategies will be necessary to all effective individuals and employees2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 41 41
  42. 42. Developing Communities for the 21st Century It is not Rocket Science! …or is it? The Future of jobs and communities are at stake! By: Frank X. Sowa Chairman/CEO THE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd. P.O. Box 251 Glenshaw, PA 15116 USA (412) 487-9422 (412) 487-3067 Fsowa@xaviergroup.com http://www.xaviergroup.comPresented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004 2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 42 42
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