PESTEL

Political and legal Economic changes changes PESTEL Environmental Socio-cultural changes changes Technological changes

Political and legal changes

#1 Changes in taxes

#2 Changes in tariffs

#3 Changes in subsidies

#4 Changes in infrastructure investments

#5 Changes in research investments

Millions of dollars are being poured into research to develop the next great battery technology. Longer charges on fewer cycles are needed to power electric cars, handheld devices, home appliances, and backup systems for when, say, the wind turbines stop turning. Source: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/02/0225_inventions/21.htm

#6 Changes in degree of involvement of individuals and private companies

#7 Changes in rules and regulations

#8 Changes in member states

An expanding European Union Source: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s2.html

#9 Changes in percentage of men/women in parliament

Percentage of women in national parliaments Source: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-markets-institute/featured-research/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

Economic changes

#1 Changes in gross domestic product

GDP per capita across the world Sources International Monetary Fund, April 2008. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GDP_nominal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_2007.PNG

GDP growth per year in % Source: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12376610

The economies of developing countries have grown an average of over 7% annually for the past five years. At these rates, world poverty will be cut by more than half between 2000 and 2015. Source: 2008 State of the Future. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/SOF2008-English.pdf

OECD countries, which five decades ago accounted for 75% of world GDP, today account for less than 55%. Source: Javier Santoso, Director and Chief Economist of the OECD Development Centre. 29. September 2008. http://emagazine.credit- suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fuseaction=OpenArticle&aoid=242498&WT.mc_id=In%20Focus %20International%2029.9.2008-243420%08=EN&lang=EN

#2 Changes in wages

Market Salary per hour Salary per hour Engineering Assembly China and India USD 3 USD 1 – 2 Russia USD 18 Japan and Korea USD 36 USD 19 North America USD 26 Western Europe USD 48 USD 37 Source: http://www.strategy-business.com/enews/enewsarticle/enews072909?pg=all

#3 Changes in the costs of real estate

#4 Changes in the costs of food

#5 Changes in interest rates

#6 Changes in currency exchange rates

#7 Changes in inflation

#8 Changes in energy demand

World Energy Demand – Primary Energy Supplies Source: http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/energy_outlook_2007.pdf

Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/13170705/Clean-Tech-Trends-2009

#9 Changes in the costs of Internet broadband

Socio-cultural changes

#1 Changes in number of people who are born per year

9 countries will account for 50% of all world population growth through 2050 Bangladesh Uganda Sources: Seven revolutions. http://7revs.csis.org/pdf/population.pdf Global Trends 2025. http://www.scribd.com/doc/8233948/Global-Trends-2025-FINAL

World population in 2020 Source: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s2.html

#2 Changes in average number of years people live

Where humanity is winning and losing Source: 2008 State of the Future. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/SOF2008-English.pdf

#3 Changes in age distribution

Source: http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/Pensions.pdf

Source: http://bcg.de/images/uploads/attachments/The_Next_Bil9823.pdf

Source: http://www.swissre.com/pws/research%20publications/sigma%20ins.%20research/facts%20and%20figures/age_distr_world_42008.html

Africa is one of the youngest markets in the world, with more than half its population under 24. Whereas Europe’s population is expected to decline by 60 million people by 2050, Africa will add 900 million people. Sources: Mahajan, Vijay: Africa Rising, p. 38. The Population Reference Bureau.

#4 Changes in household size

#5 Changes in average retirement age

Retirement age and life expectancy Source: http://www.knowledgeconcierge.com/WEFPublic/PDFs/Davos2008/Briefing_CZ_EN.pdf

#6 Changes in number of people who emigrate

#7 Changes in number of people who immigrate

#8 Changes in percentage of population who live in cities

Source: http://www.theplaceswelive.com/

Urban and rural population of the world Source http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUPHighlights_Final_Report.pdf

Source http://www.knowledgeconcierge.com/WEFPublic/PDFs/Davos2008/Briefing_CX_EN.pdf

#9 Changes in income distribution

Income differences per person 1775 1820 1870 1913 Western Europe 100 100 100 100 Southern Europe 75 62 53 47 Eastern Europe 70 58 49 42 Latin America 75 55 38 41 Asia 56 43 28 20 Africa 46 35 23 16 Source: Jeffrey G. Williamson, "Globalization and the Great Divergence: terms of trade booms, volatiity and the poor periphery, 1782-1913“. European Review of Economic History, 12, 355-391, 359.

# 10 Changes in values that are important for people

Welche Werte und Bereiche im Leben sind Ihnen wichtig? Source Beobachter nr. 1, 2010. Survey by Monso. n = 1000 in Switzerland http://www.beobachter.ch/leben-gesundheit/artikel/umfrage_werte/

# 11 Changes in percentage of population who are overweight

2/3 of all grown up Americans are overweight. Source: Amerikas wunderlichste Ideen im Kampf gegen die Fettleibigkeit. NZZ am Sonntag, 2. April 2006.

Source: http://www.slideshare.net/jcanton/future-of-health-care-presentation

Jamie Oliver: Teach every child about food Source: http://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_oliver.html

# 12 Changes in how people eat

We see a trend towards more home cooking. Source: Interview with Mr. Peter Brabeck. http://www.ft.com/cms/8a38c684-2a26-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html

# 13 Changes in how much and how people educate themselves

Source: https://entry4.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/p/d/de/publikationen/media/pdf/Global_Investor_en.pdf

Information technology

# 14 Changes in how people transport themselves

Vehicle ownership per 1000 people Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg3/jpg/fig-5-2.jpg

Technological changes

#1 Technological breakthroughs

Decentralization Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12686310/Ulf-Pillkahn-Using-Trends-and-Scenarios-as-Tools-for-Strategy-Development

#2 Changes in information and communication technology

Productivity Source http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Business_Technology/Application_Management/Six_ways_to_make_Web_20_work_2294

Broadband subscriptions in millions Source: http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/_assets/main/lib310662/21emergingbusinesstrends.pdf

Internet penetration rates worldwide Source: www.internetworldstats.com

The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the Internet for most people in the world in 2020. Source: http://pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_FutureInternet3.pdf

Media convergence Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12686310/Ulf-Pillkahn-Using-Trends-and-Scenarios-as-Tools-for-Strategy-Development

Environmental changes

#1 Changes in temperature

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif

PESTEL

by Frank Calberg Services on Feb 14, 2010

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PESTEL — Presentation Transcript