How do you make decisions?

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24 decision making methods. Research included.

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How do you make decisions?

  1. 1. How do you make decisions?
  2. 2. Which of these 24 decision making methods do you like the best?
  3. 3. Method # 1 What are your healthy habits?
  4. 4. If you have a habit of eating salad for lunch every day and that works well for you, just keep on doing it. Then you can save your decision-making energy for other things. Adapted from https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
  5. 5. What are YOUR healthy habits?
  6. 6. Method # 2 How well do you understand the problem?
  7. 7. How well do you understand the problem – including the reasons for the problem? https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-to-make-better-decisions-with-less-data
  8. 8. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
  9. 9. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/How-can-we-understand-the-problem-1531110
  10. 10. Method # 3 What are arguments for and against the decision?
  11. 11. What are arguments for the decision? What are arguments against the decision? Advantages. Benefits. Strengths. Disadvantages. Problems. Weaknesses.
  12. 12. Please think about a decision you need to take in your life. Individually, please take 2 minutes now to write down what arguments you can find that speak 1. for the decision. 2. against the decision.
  13. 13. Now, please take 1 minute individually to consider all arguments you have written down for and against the decision. Then make the decision.
  14. 14. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Six-thinking-hats-1455136
  15. 15. Method # 4 What brain will you use to make the decision?
  16. 16. Head brain Thinking and creating meaning. Heart brain Values, feelings, and relations to others. Gut brain Personality. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
  17. 17. Have 3 chairs in your office – representing your head brain, heart brain, and gut brain. Move from chair to chair and give voice to the viewpoint of each brain about the decision to be made. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/when-deciding-gets-hard-getting-beyond-basics-deb-loftus-ph-d-
  18. 18. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/The-brain-1500203
  19. 19. Method # 5 What values do you have?
  20. 20. Be creative values Do it well values Get it done values Be a part of it values
  21. 21. 5 questions to discover values you have: Question # 1: What was your last moment of true happiness? Why was this for you a moment of true happiness? Question # 2: Whom do you admire the most? Why do you admire this person? Question # 3: When were you at your best? Why were you at your best then? Question # 4: Which 1 word says the most about you? Why does this word say the most about you? Please explain. Question # 5: If you could try any work for a week, what would it be? Why do you want to try out the work you suggested?
  22. 22. Value hierarchy Please write down the 2 values mentioned most frequently. Values The # 1 mentioned value: The # 2 mentioned value:
  23. 23. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Questions-to-discover-your-values-1329394
  24. 24. Method # 6 How will you decide when you think ahead and look back?
  25. 25. https://youtu.be/jwG_qR6XmDQ Please think about a decision you need to take. When you are 80 years old, do you think you would regret not having done it / having done it? Jeff Bezos
  26. 26. The 10-10-10 rule When you’re about to make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel about it  10 minutes from now.  10 months from now.  10 years from now. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/the-choice-explosion.html http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/
  27. 27. Hi folks, can we please take 5 minutes to imagine that we are at the end of the project, and that we took some wrong decisions on the way. During the next 5 minutes, please write down - each one of you – which of the decisions, we took, were wrong. Please also write why we took these wrong decisions. Thank you. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide The premortem exercise
  28. 28. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/How-can-we-understand-the-problem-1531110
  29. 29. Method # 7 When will you set a deadline?
  30. 30. Pick a decision you have been postponing. Give yourself 3 minutes. Then make the decision. https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
  31. 31. Method # 8 To which 3 possibilities can you reduce the decision?
  32. 32. Step # 1 Go to a shop website where you can buy toasters. Step # 2 Use the filter to define needs you have for a toaster. Example: Only 1 toast at a time. Step # 3 Reduce the number of toasters you see to 3 by elimating those you do not want. Adapted from http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/what-a-bad-decision-looks-like-in-the-brain/497402/ Example: Toaster purchase
  33. 33. Method # 9 What will you do now that is important and not urgent?
  34. 34. Not urgent Urgent Important Invest as much time as possible doing these tasks whenever possible. Not important Eisenhower matrix.
  35. 35. Not urgent Urgent Important Examples:  Learning.  Doing sports / physical exercise.  Eating healthy food.  Communicating with friends.  Planning what you want to do when. Not important
  36. 36. Not urgent Urgent Important Examples:  Life / death emergencies.  Crisis communication.  Deadlines of important tasks.  Learning to do something that needs to be fixed now. Not important
  37. 37. Not urgent Urgent Important Not important Examples:  Watching entertainment.  Eating unhealthy food.  Phone call about topics of little relevance.
  38. 38. Not urgent Urgent Important Not important Examples:  Ineffective meetings.  Phone call or e-mail with irrelevant demands.
  39. 39. Sources http://www.businessinsider.com/dwight-eisenhower-nailed-a-major-insight-about-productivity-2014-4 https://exist.io/blog/eisenhower/ https://medium.com/@artofmanliness/decide-like-ike-the-eisenhower-decision-matrix-2959919e5cb6#.w2mir92f5 http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newHTE_91.htm http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/ http://theviewinside.me/work-on-the-important-things-that-are-not-urgent/
  40. 40. Method # 10 Are you using statistical facts to make your decision?
  41. 41. “I don't think smoking is that bad, because my uncle Arthur smoked 20 cigarettes every day, and he lived till he was 92.” The story of Arthur is highly unrepresentative of smokers as a whole. http://voices.yahoo.com/the-availability-error-trap-6892686.html?cat=3
  42. 42. http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/ http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html Lifetime risk is calculated by dividing population by the number of deaths per year, divided by the life expectancy in years of a person. Lifetime risk of dying in a car accident 1:84. Lifetime risk of dying in a plane crash Between 1:5,000 and 1:20,000.
  43. 43. Method # 11 What about trying to live with the consequences of your decision for a longer time?
  44. 44. To stop eating 2 chocolate bars instead of 1 on a Wednesday, try forcing yourself to live with the consequences of eating 2 chocolate bars every day for the entire week. http://io9.com/current-moment-bias-is-my-worst-one-im-a-terrible-proc-264008358
  45. 45. Although you know you want to STOP voting for a certain person or certain party, why do you keep voting for this person / party? http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational
  46. 46. Although you know you should not eat chocolate bar # 2, why do you eat it, just because you bought 2 for the price of 1? http://www.lifehack.org/articles/communication/how-the-sunk-cost-fallacy-makes-you-act-stupid.html
  47. 47. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Reasons-why-people-resist-change-1453736
  48. 48. Method # 12 When do you make important decisions?
  49. 49. Over the course of a regular day, we become increasingly tired. Thereby, the quality of our decisions is reduced. In other words, do not make important decisions late in the day. https://hbr.org/2016/02/dont-make-important-decisions-late-in-the-day
  50. 50. Method # 13 When will you use your intuition?
  51. 51. If something you want to make a decision about is impacted by many changes, there’s no basis for intuition. To use intuition, you need a certain degree of stability that only changes minimally. Adapted from http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut
  52. 52. To use your intuition well, decision makers need to have the possibility to get feedback on their judgments, so they can strengthen them and gain expertise. http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut
  53. 53. Your conscience shouts ”here’s what you should you”, while your intuition whispers, ”here’s what you could do.” Listen to that voice that tells you what you could do. Nothing will define your character more than that. Steven Spielberg. https://youtu.be/TYtoDunfu00 Minute 6.
  54. 54. Method # 14 From whom will you seek advice before making your decision?
  55. 55. How does the advice process work? Step # 1 You notice a problem or an opportunity. Step # 2 You seek advice from people who 1. will be affected by the decision. 2. know a lot about the topic. Step # 3 You make the decision by taking all advice into consideration. http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
  56. 56. 3 benefits of the advice process # 1: People are involved People, who are asked for advice, feel they are needed. # 2: Learning is happening Asking people = learning. # 3: Better decisions are made The decision maker has to live with the consequences of the decision. http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
  57. 57. Buurtzorg uses social media, for example blogs, to support the advice process. http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
  58. 58. Please think of a decision you need to make in your life. Now, please think about from whom you want to seek advice. Please include people who 1. will be affected by the decision. 2. know a lot about the topic. 2 minute individual reflection
  59. 59. Method # 15 Will you rather divide or decide?
  60. 60. http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion When you want to share a cake fairly with another person, ask him or her if he / she wants to divide the cake or decide which piece he / she wants. The ”divide or decide” method works because the person dividing the cake will make sure that the cake is divided equally.
  61. 61. Method # 16 How often do you use the if-then rule?
  62. 62. Let’s say someone constantly interrupts you, and you are not sure how to respond. Try the if-then rule If the person interrupts you 2 times in a conversation, then you say, “Please let me finish talking.” https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions
  63. 63. Method # 17 What about using best practice?
  64. 64. Research shows that managers, who made decisions using best practices, achieved their expected results 90% of the time, and 40% of them exceeded expectations. However, only 2% regularly apply best practices when making decisions. https://hbr.org/2016/03/a-checklist-for-making-faster-better-decisions
  65. 65. https://twitter.com/mumblr/status/777310047797784576
  66. 66. Method # 18 When will you listen to people you do not know?
  67. 67. Human ethnocentrism, the tendency to view one's group as very important and better than other groups, creates intergroup bias that fuels prejudice, xenophobia, and intergroup violence. http://www.pnas.org/content/108/4/1262
  68. 68. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Listening-tips-1485898
  69. 69. Method # 19 When will you listen to people you do not agree with?
  70. 70. http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide We love to agree with people who agree with us. When you need to make a decision, how often do you listen to / learn from people who disagree with you / have a different opinion than you have?
  71. 71. We may have a negative emotional reaction on meeting people who seem different from us. This “fear of the other” emotion evolved for a good purpose: In a tribal world, other tribes posed a threat. Today, however, this “fear of the other” emotion can get in the way of interactions. It introduces immediate hostility, when there should not be hostility. http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/leadership-and-behavior-mastering-the-mechanics-of-reason-and-emotion
  72. 72. Degree to which decision proposals have been challenged against over- optimism by people who do not agree with each other Use brainstorming to get more ideas. Make decision. Use 6 thinking hats. Number of different points of view considered http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Strategy/Are_you_ready_to_decide
  73. 73. Method # 20 How strongly do you focus on satisfying needs of people who love you?
  74. 74. Instead of trying to be loved by everyone, focus on satisfying needs of those who truly love you. http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/08/01/989517/
  75. 75. Method # 21 Who do you want to decide for you?
  76. 76. Leader’s choice is usually the fastest approach, so it is the most appropriate in a crisis. https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
  77. 77. Further inspiration https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Crisis-communication-2393660
  78. 78. Method # 22 When do you decide against a group?
  79. 79. When people hear each other make estimates, the 1st person influences the 2nd person who influences the 3rd person etc. However, when people estimate independently, for example how many coins there are in a jar, the accuracy of the judgment rises - on average - with the number of estimates. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut
  80. 80. In an experiment, participants were asked to identify which of 3 lines on a card was the same length as a line on another card. When asked individually, participants chose the correct line. When asked in the presence of paid actors who intentionally selected the wrong line, about 75% conformed to the group at least once. In other words, they chose an incorrect answer in order to fit in. https://hbr.org/cover-story/2016/10/let-your-workers-rebel
  81. 81. Method # 23 When do you ask people to vote?
  82. 82. A majority vote allows every voice to be heard and is generally viewed as fair. https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
  83. 83. Be aware that it may be difficult for some people to declare their opinion publicly. https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting
  84. 84. Method # 24 When will you move when people silently agree?
  85. 85. http://www.destination-innovation.com/try-this-phrase-to-speed-action-unless-i-hear-differently/ http://unlessiheardifferently.com/ Send your best plan with this message: “Unless I hear differently by 11 AM CET on Thursday, I will go ahead with this.”
  86. 86. In a meeting, a person summarizes a dialogue and concludes. When other participants show consent by saying nothing and/or nodding, the couple / team / group has made a decision. http://fac-vid.squarespace.com/bedre-moeder/Ravn%20-%20Bedre%20mder%20gennem%20facilitering.pdf p. 9.
  87. 87. Consent based decision making can be made when team members, who are present, do not object. http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making
  88. 88. 3 decision making exercises
  89. 89. Individual reflection exercise Please take a minute to think about how you make decisions in life.
  90. 90. Group exercise. 1 minute per person. Those of you, who want to, please share a decision making success experience you had in your life.
  91. 91. Those of you who want to, please ask everyone for help to make a decision you want to make. After a person has shared what he / she needs help with to make his / her decision, all other participants use their knowledge, resources, and connections to help the person. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/organization/givers_take_all_the_hidden_dimension_of_corporate_culture Group exercise. 1 minute per person.

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