INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY             Nuclear Power Forum           Manila, 10 December 2010    The role of nuclear powe...
Outline                     IEA global energy and power sector outlook                     Economics of nuclear power & ...
Emerging economies dominate                        the growth in demand for all                        fuels              ...
Booming demand for mobility in the                      emerging economies drives up oil use                              ...
Projected electric and plug-in hybrid                    vehicle sales through 2020                                       ...
Historical global electricity                                                 consumption                                 ...
World Electricity Consumption                             (2006 –2030)© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy-related CO2 emissions in                    Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios                     Gt CO2   60        ...
De-carbonisation requires a radical                     shift in electricity generation mix                          50   ...
Joint IEA/NEA Nuclear Roadmap (June 2010)                    Nuclear is currently the only option (excluding hydro) that c...
Evolution of generation mix in IEA                    member countries 1974-2008© OECD/IEA - 2009
Average annual electricity                    capacity additions to 2050,                    BLUE Map scenario            ...
ASEAN generation capacity by country                    and fuel - Reference Scenario               Generation capacity in...
Philippine primary energy demand by                    fuel in the Reference Scenario© OECD/IEA - 2009
Risk and return assessment tends to                    favour investments in gas-fired power                    plants© OE...
Main findings of IEA/NEA 2010 cost study                                      Current context is of great uncertainty ove...
A median case: Sensitivity to CO2 cost                Generation costs are site and technology specific. Key parameters   ...
Main challenges for nuclear                            expansion                     Huge initial investment and financin...
Competitive advantages of nuclear power                                                         Illustrative impact of a  ...
Key messages                     We must invest in all clean energy technologies (e.g.                        energy effi...
Thank you for your attention© OECD/IEA - 2009
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Mr Francois Nguyen

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Emerging economies dominate the growth in demand for all fuels

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Mr Francois Nguyen

  1. 1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Nuclear Power Forum Manila, 10 December 2010 The role of nuclear power in a sustainable energy future François Nguyen Office of Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA - 2009
  2. 2. Outline  IEA global energy and power sector outlook  Economics of nuclear power & cost of power generation  Challenges in investment in new power plants  Key messages© OECD/IEA - 2009
  3. 3. Emerging economies dominate the growth in demand for all fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035 OECD Coal China Oil Rest of world Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables - 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Mtoe Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD© OECD/IEA - 2009
  4. 4. Booming demand for mobility in the emerging economies drives up oil use Passenger vehicles in the New Policies Scenario 1 600 Million China 1 400 Other non-OECD 1 200 United States 1 000 Other OECD 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1990 2000 2008 2020 2035  Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies,© OECD/IEA - 2009 is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand
  5. 5. Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales through 2020 9.0 Canada 8.0 Austria Ireland 7.0 Netherlands EV + PHEV Sales (millions) 6.0 Sweden Portugal 5.0 UK Germany 4.0 France Korea 3.0 Japan 2.0 Spain United States 1.0 China 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011). EV/PHEV sales could reach 8 million by 2020© OECD/IEA - 2009
  6. 6. Historical global electricity consumption Global Credit Crunch TWh 20 000 18 000 Dot-com Bubble Burst 16 000 Asian Economic Crisis 14 000 Black Monday Stock Market Crash 12 000 US Recession 10 000 2nd Oil Price Shock 8 000 1st Oil Price Shock 6 000 4 000 End of World War II 2 000 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009© OECD/IEA - 2009
  7. 7. World Electricity Consumption (2006 –2030)© OECD/IEA - 2009
  8. 8. Energy-related CO2 emissions in Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios Gt CO2 60 Baseline emissions 57 Gt 55 Non-OECD Other Non-OECD 19% 50 countries Other OME 14% 45 India 12% 40 35 China 27% 30 Other OECD 10% 25 OECD Europe 7% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt United States 11% 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050  Primary energy demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase much faster than in OECD countries in the Baseline scenario.  In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries.© OECD/IEA - 2009
  9. 9. De-carbonisation requires a radical shift in electricity generation mix 50 PWh 45 Other 40 Solar 35 Wind Biomass+CCS 30 Biomass and waste 25 Hydro 20 Nuclear 15 Natural gas+CCS Natural gas 10 Oil 5 Coal+CCS 0 Coal 2007 Baseline BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High 2050 2050 Nuclear 2050 Ren 2050 Under the Baseline fossil fuels continue to dominate • By 2050 under BLUE Map scenario, nuclear share rises to 24% • In the Blue High nuclear case, nuclear share reaches 38% of global electricity production© OECD/IEA - 2009
  10. 10. Joint IEA/NEA Nuclear Roadmap (June 2010) Nuclear is currently the only option (excluding hydro) that can deliver low carbon, base load power at competitive prices© OECD/IEA - 2009
  11. 11. Evolution of generation mix in IEA member countries 1974-2008© OECD/IEA - 2009
  12. 12. Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map Coal-fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW) Gas-fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW) Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW) Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam Biomass plants 200 plants (50 MW) Wind-onshore 12 000 turbines (4 MW) Wind-offshore 3 600 turbines (4 MW) Geothermal 45 units (100 MW) Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW) 0 10 20 30 40 50 GW/ yr Annual rates of investment in low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.© OECD/IEA - 2009
  13. 13. ASEAN generation capacity by country and fuel - Reference Scenario Generation capacity in Indonesia is projected to nearly triple over the period 2007-2030 reaching 100 GW by 2030.© OECD/IEA - 2009
  14. 14. Philippine primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario© OECD/IEA - 2009
  15. 15. Risk and return assessment tends to favour investments in gas-fired power plants© OECD/IEA - 2009
  16. 16. Main findings of IEA/NEA 2010 cost study  Current context is of great uncertainty over future input costs  No technology has a clear overall advantage globally or even regionally  Detailed country numbers reveal a large variety of results.  The real added value of the study is the detailed cost data by country  With financing costs at 5%, nuclear is the most competitive solution  With financing costs at 10%, and low carbon prices , coal-fired generation and CCGTs are the cheapest sources of electricity© OECD/IEA - 2009
  17. 17. A median case: Sensitivity to CO2 cost Generation costs are site and technology specific. Key parameters affecting competitiveness include costs of project financing and CO2 prices.© OECD/IEA - 2009
  18. 18. Main challenges for nuclear expansion  Huge initial investment and financing issues  Long delays in permitting  High construction risks  Competitiveness with other energy sources  Uncertainties in fuel and electricity prices  Carbon Pricing  Impact of grid integration of renewables  Safety, security, waste management and proliferation issues  International co—operation is required  Constraint on human resources and equipment supply  For emerging nuclear countries  Significant need for capacity building and institutional and regulatory frameworks© OECD/IEA - 2009
  19. 19. Competitive advantages of nuclear power Illustrative impact of a 50% increase in fuel Nuclear is currently the only prices on generation costs option (excluding hydro) that can deliver low carbon , base load electricity at competitive prices 40% Fuel cost component of nuclear increase in generating cost energy is lower than fossil fuel 30% generation Nuclear is less vulnerable to sharp increases in fuel prices and 20% can contribute to more stable electricity prices 10% Carbon pricing improve the competitiveness of nuclear 0% Nuclear IGCC Coal steam CCGT© OECD/IEA - 2009
  20. 20. Key messages  We must invest in all clean energy technologies (e.g. energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear, etc) comprehensively to mitigate climate change and enhance energy security  Excluding hydro, nuclear is currently the only option that can deliver low carbon, base load power at competitive prices  Nuclear can play a significant role in the decarbonisation of the power sector  Key to nuclear development is costs  Clear, stable and market-based policies and regulatory frameworks are required to facilitate the right choices for investment in power generation© OECD/IEA - 2009
  21. 21. Thank you for your attention© OECD/IEA - 2009
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