Ciklum Seminar Zurich March 7, 2012 - Martin Coul (The Coul Room)

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Insights and inspiration drawn from the epicentre of the mobile ecosystem. Over the last 12 years, Martin has worked with and for some the mobile ecosystems leading talent and companies including HTC, …

Insights and inspiration drawn from the epicentre of the mobile ecosystem. Over the last 12 years, Martin has worked with and for some the mobile ecosystems leading talent and companies including HTC, Nokia, Samsung, Skype, Sony Ericsson and Symbian. The Coul Room recently presented the highly acclaimed and inaugural Swiss Mobile Basecamp 2012 - an initiative to boost mobile start-ups in Switzerland and help them succeed beyond the Swiss borders.

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  • 1. Then,  now  and  the  future  direc1on  of  mobile   Ciklum  Seminar,  Zurich,  07/03/12  
  • 2. About:  Mar=n  is  the  Founder  of  The  Coul  Room,  a  bou=que  advisory  firm  based   in   Lausanne   specialising   in   Mobile   &   ICT   domains.   They  recently  presented  the  highly  acclaimed  Swiss  Mobile  Basecamp  -­‐  an   ini=a=ve   to   boost   mobile   start-­‐ups   in   Switzerland   and   help  them   succeed   beyond   the   Swiss   borders.   The   Coul   Room   shares  its   mobile   industry   insights,   interna=onal   contacts   and   in=mate  knowledge   of   the   wireless   value   chain   with   aspiring  entrepreneurs,   start-­‐ups,   corporates   and   investors   both   inside  and  beyond  the  Swiss  borders.  
  • 3. ~14  years  at  the  epicentre  of  mobile:  
  • 4. mobicamp.ch!We’ll  be  returning  on  the  1st  November  2012!  
  • 5. Then,  now  and  the  future  direc1on  of  mobile…  
  • 6. Technology  Forecas=ng:   ‘People  tend  to  overes.mate   what  can  be  done  in  one  year   and  to  underes.mate  what  can   be  done  in  five  to  ten  years’     JCR  Licklider  1965     JCR  Licklider:  1915-­‐1990  
  • 7. 24th  June  1998:   +   +   +   =  
  • 8. + (1997)  Psion  Series  5   (1996)  Nokia  9000   Communicator   =(2000)  R380:  World’s   (2000)  N9210:  Color,    First  Smartphone.   Fax,  Email,  Web,   Office   (2002)  7650:  First   (2005)  N95:  GPS,  5mp   Nokia  with  built  in   Carl  Zeiss  lens,  Wi-­‐Fi,   camera.   TV  Out,  Music  Player.  
  • 9. 11th  February  2012:  
  • 10. Ericsson       R380   Danger    Sidekick   Nokia  9000   Siemens  SX1   iMate  SPL  Communicator   Fujitsu   F-­‐022   SEMC     P800   Mitsubishi   D705i   Motorola     U9   Nokia     N9   Palm  Pre   Palm  V   Source:  Vision  Mobile,    The  Coul  Room  Analysis  
  • 11. Bill  &  Andy’s  Excellent  Adventure  II   “We  have  a  dream  of  improving  the  lives   of  many  millions  of  people  by  means  of   small,  in)mate  life  support  systems  that   people  carry  with  them  everywhere.   These  systems  will  help  people  to   organize  their  lives,  to  communicate   with  other  people,  and  to  access   informa)on  of  all  kinds.  They  will  be   simple  to  use,  and  come  in  a  wide  range   of  models  to  fit  every  budget,  need,  and   taste.  They  will  change  the  way  people   live  and  communicate.”  Source:  hip://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.04/general.magic_pr.html  
  • 12. 1994  &  The  UI  of  tomorrow?  
  • 13. Take  a  closer  look!:   1994:  Magic  Cap  UI   2008:  HTC  Dream  UI  Source:  San  Francisco  Mobile  
  • 14. Steve  Job’s  vision:   “The  problem  is,  in  hardware   you  cant  build  a  computer   thats  twice  as  good  as   anyone  elses  anymore…but   you  can  do  it  in  so@ware.”       Steve  Jobs:  1955-­‐2011   Source:  Rolling Stone Magazine 1994  
  • 15. Then,  now  and  the  future  direc1on  of  mobile…  
  • 16. The  plaporm  conundrum!?:  
  • 17. Apps  drive  the  plaporms  core  business  –  not  content  profits:  
  • 18. App  Downloads     08.01  -­‐  09.02.2012  (Switzerland):   Swiss  App  Downloads  in  January  2012   4.08m   16   14  Android   12   10   14.14m   8   Swiss  Downloads  in  January   2012  (M)   6   iPhone   4   2   0   Android   iPhone   iPad   WP7   2.75m   iPad   •  Est.  49m  downloads  a  day  via  Apple’s  App  Store   •  4  years  to  reach  25  billion  downloads   •  8.5  years  to  reach  16  billion  iTunes  song  downloads   0.21m   Source:  Xyologic,  The  Cult  of  Mac   WP7  
  • 19. Smartphone  shipments  as  %  of   total  unit  shipments  (2008-­‐2011):  1.63bn  mobile  phones  sold  worldwide  during  2011.  Out  of  these  483m  were  smartphones.    Nokia  are  selling  12x  S40  phones  every  second  and  have  an  installed  base  of  1.5bn  devices  The  smartphone  market  grew  by  43%  in  2011,from  nearly  300  million  shipments  in  2010  to  over  480  million  in  2011.   Source:  Vision  Mobile,  Nokia  
  • 20. Mobile  is  the  wild  west:   But  sotware  is  the  new  sheriff!  
  • 21. Apps  tap  consumer  $$$  beyond   telecoms  :  Source:  Vision  Mobile  &  US  consumer  expenditure  survey  2009  
  • 22. Mobile  is  the  single  biggest  global   distribu=on  plaporm:  Source:  Vision  Mobile  
  • 23. Then,  now  and  the  future  direc1on  of  mobile…  
  • 24. BYOD  -­‐  One  trend  not  to  ignore:     BYOD:  Bring  Your  Own  Device  
  • 25. Windows  phone  will  establish  itself:   •  3rd  Ecosystem   •  Emerging  markets  &   Nokia  Life  tools   •  Metro  &  Windows  8   •  Strong  IP  Porpolio   •  Nokia’s  retail  channel   •  RIM  won’t  survive  Disclaimer:  The  Coul  Room  holds  no  stock/investments  in  Nokia  or  MSFT  
  • 26. Connected  Life  in  2020:   Total   connected   devices  will   reach  24   billion   worldwide!  Source:  GSMA  
  • 27. Remember  me?:   ‘People  tend  to  overes.mate   what  can  be  done  in  one  year   and  to  underes.mate  what  can   be  done  in  five  to  ten  years’     JCR  Licklider  1965     JCR  Licklider:  1915-­‐1990  
  • 28. Thanks  for  listening!   mar=n@thecoulroom.com  |Twiier:  @thecoulroom